The Chicago Bears will face the Green Bay Packers in Week 18. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Caleb Williams.
Is Caleb Williams Playing in Week 18?
Williams is not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any setbacks, he is expected to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bears’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Caleb Williams in Week 18?
Maybe we set the bar a bit high for Caleb Williams. We saw the pedigree and the situation and assumed that there would be an instant translation to fantasy relevance, something that pretty clearly hasn’t happened, especially when you juxtapose it to other members of this rookie class.
We’ve seen some flashes from Williams this season, despite the disappointing overall production, and that includes moments against these Packers. In Week 11, he funneled 64.5% of his targets to his trio of receivers on his way to completing 23 of 31 passes for 231 yards. He also added 70 yards on the ground, giving us a glimpse of what the future may hold. I’m not betting on him doing similar things in January at Lambeau, but I’m certainly not throwing in the towel on him as a prospect as we begin to turn our attention toward next season.
Video game numbers are great, but when I’m evaluating a rookie QB, I want to see poise. These high-end prospects usually end up in rebuilding situations, and if they can show composure early on, it paves the way for future growth. Williams isn’t there yet, but I’d very much caution against overreacting to his profile.
Rookie season, under pressure:
- Williams: 44.1% complete, 5.5 yards per attempt, and 5.1% TD rate
- Joe Burrow: 37.3% complete, 4.2 yards per attempt, and 2.9% TD rate
Rookie season, when blitzed:
- Williams: 57.6% complete, 6.7 yards per attempt, and 3.5 TD/INT
- Burrow: 61.0% complete, 6.6 yards per attempt, and 1.3 TD/INT
I’m not suggesting that Williams is Windy City Burrow, but Cincinnati saw their top overall pick make a massive jump in Year 2 (getting Ja’Marr Chase certainly helped, but I’d argue that the Bears spent this season getting Williams acclimated with his weapons). But I’m not ruling that out in a division that is going to require scoring points in bunches for years to come.
Year 2 Burrow:
- Pressured: 60.9% complete, 8.6 yards per attempt, and 6.8% TD rate
- Blitzed: 68.8% complete, 10.3 yards per attempt, and 2.5 TD/INT
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Caleb Williams’ Fantasy Points Projection in Week 18
As of Sunday, Williams is projected to score 14.4 fantasy points in Week 18. This includes 188.7 passing yards, 0.8 passing touchdowns, and 0.5 interceptions. It also includes 3.9 rushing attempts for 29.1 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Packers' Defense
The Packers are 11-0 against teams with a worse record than them this season. Problem is, Green Bay is only 11-5 overall after another loss to one of the few teams ahead of them in the standings.
The Packers' defense has played two of its five worst games against the Vikings this season. Week 17's grade was a 71.2 (C-), almost identical to the 71.4 grade posted in the Week 4 loss.
Green Bay ranks second in defensive EPA per dropback (0.02), but that's mostly the byproduct of splash plays. The Packers are a top-five defense in takeaway rate (16.1%) and top 10 in sack rate (7.6%). Those splash plays are valuable and can turn games, but there are also limitations for a unit reliant on those.
In the Week 17 loss, the Packers only generated one takeaway and one sack. It was only Green Bay's third game with two or fewer combined sacks and takeaways. All have come against the Vikings and Lions, and all have been losses.
The Packers are headed for a Wild Card spot at either the sixth or seventh seed, depending on Week 18 results. Their regular-season track record suggests that if the defense can generate splash plays, they'll have a reasonable chance at an upset.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Caleb Williams’ Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:00 AM ET on Sunday, January 5. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Week 18 Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 18 QB PPR Rankings
1) Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. CLE)
2) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at DAL)
3) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. NO)
4) Joe Burrow | CIN (at PIT)
5) Sam Darnold | MIN (at DET)
6) Jared Goff | DET (vs. MIN)
7) Jordan Love | GB (vs. CHI)
8) Bo Nix | DEN (vs. KC)
9) Kyler Murray | ARI (vs. SF)
10) Justin Herbert | LAC (at LV)
11) Drake Maye | NE (vs. BUF)
12) Bryce Young | CAR (at ATL)
13) Russell Wilson | PIT (vs. CIN)
14) Geno Smith | SEA (at LAR)
15) Caleb Williams | CHI (at GB)
16) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (vs. MIA)
17) Joe Flacco | IND (vs. JAX)
18) Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs. CAR)
19) Mason Rudolph | TEN (vs. HOU)
20) Aidan O'Connell | LV (vs. LAC)
21) Mac Jones | JAX (at IND)
22) Tanner McKee | PHI (vs. NYG)
23) Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. NYG)
24) Cooper Rush | DAL (vs. WAS)
25) C.J. Stroud | HOU (at TEN)
26) Drew Lock | NYG (at PHI)
27) Jimmy Garoppolo | LAR (vs. SEA)
28) Carson Wentz | KC (at DEN)
29) Davis Mills | HOU (at TEN)
30) Tyler Huntley | MIA (at NYJ)
31) Joshua Dobbs | SF (at ARI)
32) Spencer Rattler | NO (at TB)
33) Mitchell Trubisky | BUF (at NE)
34) Taylor Heinicke | LAC (at LV)
35) Bailey Zappe | KC (at DEN)
36) Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (at BAL)
37) Sam Howell | SEA (at LAR)
38) Josh Allen | BUF (at NE)
Bears at Packers Trends and Insights
Chicago Bears
Team: After Thursday night’s loss, the Bears have a league-high nine games this season in which their offense has not been on the field with a lead for a single snap.
QB: Caleb Williams’ average QB+ this season is 71.04, an underwhelming grade in the scope of the NFL, but not that bad when put up against the average QB+ grades of the three quarterbacks taken first overall prior to him in their introduction to the league.
- 2020 Joe Burrow: 73.33
- 2021 Trevor Lawrence: 71.58
- 2023 Bryce Young: 68.30
Offense: Week 17 was the third time this season that Chicago averaged more yards per run than yards per pass.
Defense: The Bears held the Seahawks to a field goal on their lone red zone trip last week, improving their defensive red zone touchdown rate to 46.7%, the best mark by this franchise since 2011 (44.6%).
Fantasy: D’Andre Swift has the lead role in this backfield without much competition, but because of game script, he’s reached 15 carries just once in his past seven games.
Betting: Chicago is 0-3 ATS on extended rest this season, and all three have come on the road (cumulative score differential compared to the spread: -35 points).
Green Bay Packers
Team: The Packers have lost to just two teams since Week 2, and yet, they will finish third in the NFC North this season.
QB: Over his past six games, Jordan Love has five touchdown passes and zero interceptions against the blitz (this season prior: five touchdowns against five interceptions).
Offense: On Sunday, the Packers averaged a season-low 27.4 yards per drive (they are 3-3 this season when averaging under 32 yards per drive).
Defense: Green Bay’s four worst defensive efforts on third down this season have come on the road, three of which came in the division. They are going to be on the road this postseason, and there will likely be NFC North teams in their way at some point.
Fantasy: Josh Jacobs has a rushing score in seven straight games, tying Paul Hornung's franchise record.
Betting: Green Bay has covered each of their past three home games and their total cover margin in those contests has been 51.5 points (overall score: 102-27).