The Dallas Cowboys will face the Washington Commanders in Week 18. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Jake Ferguson.
Is Jake Ferguson Playing in Week 18?
Ferguson is not listed on the injury report this week, so barring any setbacks, he is on track to play this weekend.
We’ll continue to monitor the Cowboys’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Jake Ferguson in Week 18?
Ferguson lost a fumble last week, but he was reasonably involved, continuing a trend that we’ve seen lately (14 targets on 44 routes over his past two games). There is an upside to target here with CeeDee Lamb out and Dallas labeled as a 3.5-point underdog. Luke Schoonmaker was able to get loose against Washington when these teams met in Week 12 for 55 yards and a touchdown, a role that is Ferguson’s to lose.
That said, it’s difficult to go in this direction with much confidence. We are nearly two months removed from the last time Ferguson cleared 40 receiving yards. The Commanders’ defense isn’t one to fear, but they will be functioning at full strength – not a worry for options like Hunter Henry or Will Dissly. For me, he ranks in the same range as Juwan Johnson and Cole Kmet as focused TEs on poor offenses facing a team with something to play for.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jake Ferguson’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 18
As of Sunday, Ferguson is projected to score 9.1 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 4.1 receptions for 39.6 yards and 0.2 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Commanders' Defense
The Washington Commanders struggled to a below-average grade (71.2, C-) in their Week 17 escape over the Atlanta Falcons to clinch a playoff berth. The defense can largely thank Jayden Daniels for more late-game heroics on their home turf, as the unit has mostly struggled against above-average or better offenses.
The Commanders have five weekly top-10 finishes this season. Those performances have come against the Browns, Panthers, Bears, the Tennessee Titans, and the Kenny Pickett-led Eagles. Setting Philadelphia aside, the other four all rank in the bottom 10 of PFN's Offense+ metric.
Obviously, that's not the caliber of defense Washington will see in the playoffs. Washington continues to miss Lattimore, who has played only two games since being traded to the team before Week 10. For the season, the Commanders have the fifth-worst defensive EPA per dropback (-0.02) and the worst of any team with a winning record.
Dan Quinn's unit hasn't performed to the level that his Cowboys defenses did from 2021-23. That's not the fairest comparison, given that this was supposed to be the early stages of a rebuild. The Commanders have at least shown the ability to overwhelm one-dimensional offenses, which is more than they could say in recent seasons.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Jake Ferguson’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:00 AM ET on Sunday, January 5. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Week 18 Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 18 TE PPR Rankings
1) Brock Bowers | LV (vs. LAC)
2) Sam LaPorta | DET (vs. MIN)
3) Trey McBride | ARI (vs. SF)
4) T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at DET)
5) Mark Andrews | BAL (vs. CLE)
6) Jonnu Smith | MIA (at NYJ)
7) Tucker Kraft | GB (vs. CHI)
8) George Kittle | SF (at ARI)
9) Chigoziem Okonkwo | TEN (vs. HOU)
10) Pat Freiermuth | PIT (vs. CIN)
11) Zach Ertz | WAS (at DAL)
12) Kyle Pitts | ATL (vs. CAR)
13) Hunter Henry | NE (vs. BUF)
14) Will Dissly | LAC (at LV)
15) Isaiah Likely | BAL (vs. CLE)
16) Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs. WAS)
17) Mike Gesicki | CIN (at PIT)
18) Juwan Johnson | NO (at TB)
19) Noah Gray | KC (at DEN)
20) Brenton Strange | JAX (at IND)
21) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at NE)
22) Dalton Schultz | HOU (at TEN)
23) Cole Kmet | CHI (at GB)
24) Tyler Conklin | NYJ (vs. MIA)
25) Austin Hooper | NE (vs. BUF)
26) Noah Fant | SEA (at LAR)
27) Foster Moreau | NO (at TB)
28) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. NYG)
29) Jordan Akins | CLE (at BAL)
30) Stone Smartt | LAC (at LV)
31) Daniel Bellinger | NYG (at PHI)
32) Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR (at ATL)
33) Payne Durham | TB (vs. NO)
34) Dawson Knox | BUF (at NE)
35) Michael Mayer | LV (vs. LAC)
Commanders at Cowboys Trends and Insights
Washington Commanders
Team: Washington won last week after trailing by double digits at halftime, improving their mark in such spots since 2002 to 5-87.
QB: Jayden Daniels posted the fourth regular season game all-time with at least 225 passing and 125 rushing yards, joining:
- 2019 Lamar Jackson
- 2018 Josh Allen
- 2010 Michael Vick
Offense: Staying on the field sounds simple, but it’s proven predictive this season – Washington is now 8-0 when reaching their average number of plays per drive (otherwise: 3-5).
Defense: The offense gets a lot of attention, but this defense is allowing a league-high 3.73 points per fourth-quarter drive this season (pacing to be the highest by a team since the 2021 Raiders).
Fantasy: Zach Ertz didn’t turn 34 until Week 11, yet his five touchdowns this season as a 34-year-old are tied for the most by a player this season (Adam Thielen also has five, but he’s been 34 all season).
Betting: A cover this weekend would give the Commanders two in road divisional games for just the second time in eight seasons (also: 2020).
Dallas Cowboys
Team: Since Week 6, Dallas has been outscored 122-22 in their three toughest matchups according to the PFN+ Power Rankings (both Eagle games and a home date with the Lions).
QB: Cooper Rush’s aDOT entering Week 17 was 6.7 yards. On Sunday, with CeeDee Lamb shelved, his rate spiked to 9.4.
Offense: Dallas has cashed in all six of its goal-to-go drives over the past seven games. The problem has been getting in such spots (six trips).
Defense: “Defense wins championships”, but for the Cowboys, it dictates every regular season result – they’ve won their top-7 point-per-drive efforts of the season while losing their other nine games.
Fantasy: That’s now six straight games with over 100 rushing yards or at least three catches for Rico Dowdle.
Betting: An ATS loss this week would wrap up a 2-7 ATS season at home for Dallas, their third-lowest home cover rate of the millennium (2012 and 2015 being the exceptions).