The Buffalo Bills will face the New England Patriots in Week 18. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Josh Allen.
Is Josh Allen Playing in Week 18?
Allen practiced in full all week with right shoulder and right elbow injuries. Notably, he’s no longer listed with the left hand injury which was reportedly a fracture. He’ll play briefly on Sunday, but Mike White was signed to the active roster to serve as the de facto backup with Mitch Trubisky playing most of Week 18.
We’ll continue to monitor the Bills’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Josh Allen in Week 18?
All reports out of Buffalo are that Josh Allen will start, but every report trails off after that. He’s going to play, and maybe that’s enough given how quickly he puts fantasy points on the board, but consider me skeptical that he plays in the second half.
Heck, I’m not sure the second quarter is a safe bet.
Allen struggled against the Patriots two weeks ago (154 passing yards with a touchdown and an interception), but this isn’t a matchup that scares me in the least. My low ranking of him is simply a bet on a lack of opportunity. Their insistence to play him also rules out getting meaningful production from Mitch Trubisky and makes projecting these pass catchers closer to calculus than arithmetic.
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 18 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 18
As of Sunday, Allen is projected to score 4.7 fantasy points in Week 18. This includes 49.2 passing yards, 0.4 passing touchdowns, and 0.1 interceptions. It also includes 1.3 rushing attempts for 7.2 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Patriots' Defense
Of all the elements of Jerod Mayo's start as head coach, the decline in New England's defense will be the most concerning. After being a top-10 defense in each of the last three years, the Patriots have plummeted to the bottom three in 2024.
New England needed a solid defense to support its rebuilding offense, and that hasn't been the case. An inconsistent Chargers offense rolled to 40 points in Foxboro, leading to the Patriots' third-worst grade (64.2, D) of the season.
Overall, New England has ranked 20th or worse in 11 out of 16 games this year. Apart from the Week 10 outlier against the Bears, the Patriots haven't recorded a single-game grade higher than a C+ all season. That could change against the Bills' backups in the season finale, but it doesn't change the massive disappointment of the defense's 2024 output.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Josh Allen’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:00 AM ET on Sunday, January 5. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Week 18 Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 18 QB PPR Rankings
1) Lamar Jackson | BAL (vs. CLE)
2) Jayden Daniels | WAS (at DAL)
3) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. NO)
4) Joe Burrow | CIN (at PIT)
5) Sam Darnold | MIN (at DET)
6) Jared Goff | DET (vs. MIN)
7) Jordan Love | GB (vs. CHI)
8) Bo Nix | DEN (vs. KC)
9) Kyler Murray | ARI (vs. SF)
10) Justin Herbert | LAC (at LV)
11) Drake Maye | NE (vs. BUF)
12) Bryce Young | CAR (at ATL)
13) Russell Wilson | PIT (vs. CIN)
14) Geno Smith | SEA (at LAR)
15) Caleb Williams | CHI (at GB)
16) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (vs. MIA)
17) Joe Flacco | IND (vs. JAX)
18) Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (vs. CAR)
19) Mason Rudolph | TEN (vs. HOU)
20) Aidan O'Connell | LV (vs. LAC)
21) Mac Jones | JAX (at IND)
22) Tanner McKee | PHI (vs. NYG)
23) Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. NYG)
24) Cooper Rush | DAL (vs. WAS)
25) C.J. Stroud | HOU (at TEN)
26) Drew Lock | NYG (at PHI)
27) Jimmy Garoppolo | LAR (vs. SEA)
28) Carson Wentz | KC (at DEN)
29) Davis Mills | HOU (at TEN)
30) Tyler Huntley | MIA (at NYJ)
31) Joshua Dobbs | SF (at ARI)
32) Spencer Rattler | NO (at TB)
33) Mitchell Trubisky | BUF (at NE)
34) Taylor Heinicke | LAC (at LV)
35) Bailey Zappe | KC (at DEN)
36) Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (at BAL)
37) Sam Howell | SEA (at LAR)
38) Josh Allen | BUF (at NE)
Bills at Patriots Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: With a week to spare, the Bills set their franchise record for touchdowns scored in a regular season.
QB: Josh Allen completed 77.8% of his third down passes against the Jets on Sunday, a good sign after struggling in such spots over his three games prior (45%).
Offense: Buffalo has cashed in all of their red zone trips into touchdowns in four of their past five games (three-for-three against the Jets on Sunday).
Defense: The Bills allowed just 1.4 points per drive on Sunday. They are 12-1 this season when allowing no more than 3.0 points per drive (season average: 2.05).
Fantasy: James Cook entered 2024 with four rushing touchdowns – he now has three separate three-game stretches this season in which he’s run for four scores.
Betting: Unders are 6-2 in Buffalo’s past road divisional games.
New England Patriots
Team: The Patriots have lost 11 regular season games by 17+ points since Tom Brady left town after 11 such games in the 16 seasons prior.
QB: Drake Maye’s rookie season hasn’t had much in the way of results, but there have been enough glimpses of promise for this fanbase to be excited about the future – he has a higher average QB+ in games 7-10 of his career (76.6) than Justin Herbert did (75.0).
Offense: The Patriots have turned the ball over in eight straight games – they’ve had a streak like that in three straight seasons (from 2014-201, they had two such streaks).
Defense: Over their past four games, New England has allowed opponents to pick up 53.7% of third downs. That’s a high rate as it is, so when you consider that teams are six-of-six on fourth down over that stretch, this is a struggling unit (over this stretch, 24% of third down stops by New England have been erased by a fourth down conversion).
Fantasy: Rhamondre Stevenson had three games in the first month of this season with 80+ rushing yards AND a score – he has three games with EITHER since.
Betting: New England hasn’t covered a long rest spot since Week 14 of 2022 (0-4-1 ATS over that stretch).