The AFC is home to the NFL’s best team and the top two players on the MVP board. Most believe this is the superior conference due to the firepower at the top, but what about the bottom of the playoff picture?
“Any Given Sunday” is more than a movie; it’s a lifestyle in the NFL. With five teams still in the mix for the final two postseason invites, the last two weeks of the regular season figure to offer plenty of intrigue.
Let’s take a look at the current AFC Wild Card playoff picture and clinching scenarios as Week 17 continues.
What Is the AFC Wild Card Playoff Standings?
The current AFC Wild Card standings after the early slate of games on Sunday:
5) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6) Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
7) Denver Broncos (9-7)
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8) Miami Dolphins (8-8)
9) Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)
10) Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
The Steelers currently trail the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North, but their postseason ticket has already been punched. Whether they win the division or not, Mike Tomlin’s bunch will be heard from in the postseason. The Chargers clinched a Wild Card spot with their dominant win over the New England Patriots on Saturday.
How Week 17 Impacted the AFC Wild Card Clinching and Elimination Scenarios
The Chargers already clinched a playoff spot, and the Broncos control their own destiny as well. A win this week could have clinched Denver a playoff spot, but the Bengals pulled off the upset. Still, this loss doesn’t eliminate the Broncos; instead, it simply puts the champagne on ice.
The Bengals (vs. Broncos on Saturday), Dolphins (at Browns on Sunday), and Colts (at Giants on Sunday) could have all been eliminated if the Broncos beat Cincinnati on Saturday, but the Bengals pulling off the upset keeps them alive.
However, the Colts’ surprising loss to the Giants on Sunday has eliminated them from playoff contention. The Dolphins, on the other hand, knocked off the Browns on the road without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Both Miami and Cincinnati will enter the final week of the regular season with at least a mathematical chance to qualify, even if the odds remain stacked against them.
A Look at AFC Wild Card Scenarios in Week 18
The Broncos failed to clinch in Week 16, but they will have a chance to clinch a playoff spot in Week 18 if they defeat the Chiefs. With Kansas City already securing the AFC’s top seed, that season finale doesn’t project as difficult as it looks.
Additionally, following the Colts’ loss on Sunday, if the Dolphins and Bengals both lose in Week 18, the Broncos will clinch a playoff spot, regardless of their own results.
The Bengals’ path became much more cut-and-dry after the Chargers won last week. They need to finish in a two-team tie with the Broncos at 9-8. With the win over the Broncos, the Bengals narrowed the gap between the two teams to one game and locked up the head-to-head tiebreaker.
In any tiebreaker scenario, the Dolphins would both have a better conference record than the Bengals.
The Dolphins’ path to the postseason is very simple. They must win their final game against the Jets, and the Broncos must lose to the Chiefs in Week 18.
At 9-8, the tiebreaker scenarios swing in their favor, as Miami would have better conference records than the Broncos and Bengals in those situations.
To sum up the most basic AFC playoff scenarios for the final Wild Card spot:
If DEN wins in Week 18, they clinch.
If DEN loses in Week 18 and MIA wins, MIA clinches.
If DEN and MIA lose in Week 18 and CIN wins, CIN clinches.
If MIA and CIN both lose in Week 18, DEN clinches, regardless of their outcome.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.