The Cincinnati Bengals believe they are in their Super Bowl window. But to win a Super Bowl, you first need to reach the postseason. That is going to be very tricky, as Cincinnati has not and will not control its own destiny. What needs to happen to keep the Bengals’ playoff chances alive for one more week?
What Is the Cincinnati Bengals’ Current Playoff Picture?
The AFC North has not yet been decided, but it won’t be the Bengals taking the crown. Either the Baltimore Ravens or the Pittsburgh Steelers will win the division. The other team will be a Wild Card, most likely the No. 5 seed.
The Bengals had several early-season losses despite very high point totals, which has put them in their current unenviable position of having to win a lot of games and get a lot of help.
There were five teams battling for two spots heading into Week 17. One of the spots has already been claimed thanks to the Los Angeles Chargers’ win on Saturday against the New England Patriots. Of the remaining four teams, the Bengals are easily in the worst position. They cannot win tiebreakers over the Miami Dolphins or Indianapolis Colts.
That means the only path to the postseason for the Bengals is to take the Denver Broncos’ place. How do they get there? Well, their overtime win on Saturday, plus the Colts’ loss today, certainly helps.
How Does a Bengals Win Impact Their Playoff Chances?
Cincinnati entered Week 17 needing to win their final two games to finish 9-8 to have any chance. The good news is Cincinnati cannot be mathematically eliminated from the postseason after winning in Week 17 because they beat the Broncos — the one team they most needed to lose.
With the win over the Broncos, the Bengals narrowed the gap between the two teams to one game and locked up the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Bengals now need the Broncos to fall in Week 18 to a Kansas City Chiefs team that will be resting starters, having locked up the No. 1 overall seed.
That’s one impediment to the Bengals’ playoff hopes. There are multiple others.
The Bengals cannot win tiebreakers over the Colts or Dolphins. That means both Indianapolis and Miami must lose at least one more game, allowing the Bengals to finish with a better record than both. Luckily for the Bengals, Indianapolis surprisingly lost on Sunday against the New York Giants.
The Dolphins easily defeated the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Next, they will travel to the Meadowlands in Week 18 to take on the New York Jets. Cincinnati will need the Jets to knock off Miami if they want to earn that final AFC playoff berth.
To sum up, the Bengals will make the playoffs if:
1) Bengals win in Week 18; AND
2) Broncos lose in Week 18; AND
3) Dolphins lose in Week 18.
Unfortunately, the Bengals will likely have dug themselves too large of a hole by starting the season 4-8. But with a win this week, they impressively kept their season alive until the very final week of the regular season.
To simulate all the different scenarios, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to see how they change the playoff picture and the NFL postseason bracket.