The Miami Dolphins have been in the playoffs for two consecutive seasons under head coach Mike McDaniel. Unfortunately, it’s highly unlikely that streak extends to three. Let’s take a look at the very specific outcomes the Dolphins need to reach the postseason.
What Is the Miami Dolphins’ Current Playoff Picture?
The AFC East has long been decided, with the Buffalo Bills claiming yet another victory. That leaves a Wild Card spot as the Dolphins’ only path.
With the Pittsburgh Steelers having clinched a playoff spot, there were five teams battling for two spots heading into Week 17. However, with the Los Angeles Chargers’ win over the Patriots, they have now officially clinched one of the Wild Card spots.
The Dolphins are in a pretty good spot regarding tiebreakers, having the advantage over the Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, both teams not only have a better record than the Dolphins, but Denver is 1.5 games ahead of them.
Miami’s path involves creating a logjam at 9-8 with the right teams and winning tiebreakers. How exactly does that happen? Let’s review.
How Does the Dolphins Win Impact Their Playoff Chances?
There’s no point in discussing what happens if the Dolphins lose in Week 18—the season is over. The Dolphins survived in Week 17 without Tua Tagovailoa to defeat the Browns in Cleveland.
The Dolphins have to win their final game as well and get to 9-8 to have any shot at playing more football. The problem is the team they are chasing already has nine wins. That means Denver must lose next week.
The good news is if the Dolphins end up 9-8 with the Broncos, Miami will win the conference record tiebreaker. The Dolphins also do not have to worry about the Bengals, as they have the tiebreaker locked up. If the Bengals win out and get to 9-8, the Dolphins would get in over them.
Additionally, the Dolphins also needed the Indianapolis Colts to lose a game. If the Colts were to have gotten to 9-8, they would have won the tiebreaker over the Dolphins by virtue of their head-to-head over Miami earlier this season.
However, the Colts’ shocking loss to the New York Giants on Sunday has eliminated Indianapolis from playoff contention.
To break it all down as simply as possible, here is the Dolphins path to the playoffs:
- Dolphins win in Week 18; AND
- Broncos lose in Week 18.
The Dolphins could have been eliminated on Saturday if the Broncos had defeated the Bengals, but Cincinnati pulled off the overtime win. Now, the Dolphins will be rooting for the Chiefs to take down the Broncos in Week 18, even though they will likely be resting starters.