Entering Week 17, the NFL MVP race is as tight as it’s ever been. While Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are the front-runners for the award, Saquon Barkley’s historic season has at least kept him in the race. But, an hour after the Baltimore Ravens obliterated the Houston Texans 31-2, the NFL posted a poll on social media.
Beginning with the statistics for all three in the running, they conducted a live poll about who should win MVP this season. And from the looks of it, the overwhelming majority of fans have made up their minds.
Fans Firmly in Lamar Jackson’s Corner
The season for Jackson has been nothing short of historic. A 120.7 passer rating gives him the second-highest passer rating for a season in NFL history, behind Peyton Manning’s 123.9 in 2004. And thus far, every quarterback with a 120+ passer rating has won MVP.
Whether it’s passing or rushing, Jackson has been simply sensational. His 43 total touchdowns have come at the cost of just three interceptions, along with 3,955 passing yards and 852 rushing yards. Those 852 yards have also broken Michael Vick’s all-time rushing-yards record for a quarterback in one season.
On Christmas Day, Jackson was again sensational, totaling 255 yards and three scores, with a 143.9 passer rating. In the poll, he was leading head-and-shoulders above the others, with 56.1% of the votes coming for him.
There have been two caveats to Jackson’s case as MVP, though. First, the presence of Derrick Henry, who still has an outside chance to finish with over 2,000 rushing yards, which could diminish Jackson’s case a little bit.
Secondly, at 11-5, with losses against the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders against their résumé, the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles’ records might help out their candidates.
Who's your MVP? pic.twitter.com/FdXeqybHG8
— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2024
Then comes Josh Allen.
Due to the roster movement in Buffalo, the Bills were seen as an underdog entering the season, with the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins having similar or better odds to win the division. Nevertheless, Buffalo has jumped out to a 12-3 record and clinched the AFC East with over a month to spare. Additionally, their victories include massive ones against the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions.
Statistically, Allen is right up there with Jackson. With 38 total touchdowns to his name, he’s been balling while considerably shoring up his Achilles heel from previous seasons: turnovers.
Allen has already crossed the 4,000 total scrimmage mark with over 3,500 passing yards and 514 rushing yards. As a result, he has 27.1% of the votes in the polling, despite recency bias helping prop up Jackson’s case.
What holds Allen back is that his statistics aren’t as prolific as Jackson’s or Barkley’s. Further, his numbers have been historically off at times throughout the year. Against the Houston Texans in Week 6, Allen had the worst completion percentage (30%) on 9 of 30 attempts.
Barkley’s case is more straightforward. An Eagles team that struggled mightily last season — losing six of their last seven, including the playoffs — has turned into a juggernaut with a 12-3 record. Their only major addition, aside from rookies on defense, was Barkley, who has been far from a disappointment.
With 1,838 rushing yards, Barkley still has an outside chance of breaking the all-time single-season record set by Erik Dickerson with 2,105. Last week, Jalen Hurts went out with a concussion, so the offense might be more reliant than usual on Barkley, which could allow him to average the 133 yards he needs to break the record.
With 11% of the total votes and nearly double all other possible candidates, such as Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, and Derrick Henry, Barkley is still a clear candidate for the MVP.
What holds him back, unfortunately, are two things.
First, not breaking the record might diminish the possibility of him winning. Secondly — and this might be unfair — but the MVP award has primarily become a QB-only award in recent times. As a result, it feels impossible for a non-QB to win it unless they do something historic — like breaking the all-time rushing record.
Still, the crux of the matter is that the MVP race is far from over, even this deep into the season. All three players still have a few opportunities left to make their claim. Perhaps a Week 18 blockbuster from one of them will ultimately be the deciding factor on this uber-tight race.
Former NFL Players Make the MVP Case For Patrick Mahomes
Former NFL All-Pro offensive lineman Kyle Long and former NFL linebacker Emmanuel Acho believe Mahomes isn’t getting enough love in the NFL MVP race.
Long, the former Chicago Bears offensive lineman, shared his take after the Chiefs defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas and secured the first seed in the AFC.
Patrick Mahomes is the MVP
— kyle (@Ky1eLong) December 26, 2024
One day later on FSI’s “The Facility, Acho also made this argument as well.
“Given the criteria for MVP, it’s a shame that Patrick Mahomes isn’t more in the conversation,” Acho said. “We talk about value. Think about what he’s overcome. Isiah Pacheco [and Rashee Rice] hurt. Clyde Edwards-Helaire started the season with mental health [issues], so he was out.
“Hollywood Brown, out of there. You have to depend on a rookie, in Xavier Worthy. You have to [start] Juju Smith, Noah Gray, Justin Watson. I mean, think about what Patrick Mahomes has had to depend on?”
“Given the criteria for MVP, it’s a shame that Patrick Mahomes is not more in the conversation.”
— @EmmanuelAcho pic.twitter.com/fttEvuLIxL
— The Facility (@TheFacilityFS1) December 26, 2024
The Chiefs (15-1) have the best record in the NFL, and the star quarterback has done fairly well despite several key players missing time this season due to injuries. Mahomes hasn’t had a good statistical season, but he has won games with his WR1 (Rice), RB1 (Pacheco), and WR2 (Brown) being absent for the majority of the year.
Playing behind an offensive line with serious issues at both tackle spots has hurt Mahomes’ performance. Still, the two-time NFL MVP has constantly come up big in critical situations, especially in the fourth quarter.
Jackson won the MVP award last year due in large part to his team’s record, so Mahomes should at least be part of the race alongside the Ravens quarterback and Bills quarterback.
Instead, the Chiefs’ star entered this week with worse odds to win the award than Barkley and Goff.
It’s quite surprising, as in the past, the quarterback on the team with the best record typically has the best chance of winning the MVP.