The Los Angeles Rams were left for dead after a 1-4 start that saw an injury-riddled offense and inexperienced defense struggle. But since October, the Rams have quietly been one of the best teams, notching impressive wins over Super Bowl contenders like the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings.
All that has left the Rams atop the NFC West standings with a chance to clinch the division as soon as Week 17. Using PFN’s Playoff Predictor, we break down the scenarios needed for the Rams to take the NFC West.
What Is the Los Angeles Rams’ Current Playoff Picture?
The 9-6 Rams lead the NFC West over the 9-7 Seattle Seahawks. Those are the only two teams that can win the division, as the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16.
The Rams won the first matchup between the teams in Seattle in Week 9. The rematch is in Los Angeles in Week 18, so the Rams could sweep the season series and clinch the division in that game.
However, Los Angeles has many other paths to winning the division. As a result, PFN projects the Rams with a 65% chance to win the NFC West, compared to 35% for the Seahawks.
Do the Rams Have Any Clinching Scenarios in Week 17?
Yes, the Rams can clinch the NFC West in Week 17, even after the Seahawks’ win on Thursday night vs. the Chicago Bears. If the Rams win and any combination of four of either Washington, Minnesota, San Francisco, Buffalo, Cincinnati, or Cleveland win, they will be eliminated.
- LAR win + at least 3.5 wins among WAS, MIN, SF, BUF, CIN, and CLE
It is more complicated but relates to the strength of victory tiebreaker. In the event that the Seahawks and Rams both finish 10-7 (with Seattle beating Los Angeles in Week 18), they’ll be tied on each of the first four tiebreakers:
- Head-to-head: split 1-1
- Division record: 4-2 each
- Common games: 8-6 each
- Conference record: 6-6 each
If that occurs, the next tiebreaker is the strength of victory. The Rams have a significant edge in that category entering Week 17. Going into this week of games, the teams that Los Angeles has defeated have combined for 60 wins, compared to 51 combined wins for Seattle’s defeated opponents.
Thus, if that group of six teams combines for at least 3.5 wins in Week 17, the Rams will be guaranteed to finish with a higher strength of victory regardless of what happens in Week 18.
The Rams beat the Vikings and Bills and swept the 49ers (the Seahawks lost to both Minnesota and Buffalo and went 1-1 vs. San Francisco). Therefore, those three teams winning helps the Rams’ strength of victory.
The Washington Commanders (vs. Atlanta Falcons), Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Denver Broncos), and Cleveland Browns (vs. Miami Dolphins) all face teams that the Seahawks beat but the Rams either lost to or didn’t face. So those three teams winning hurts the Seahawks’ strength of victory.
If at least four of those six teams win (or three wins plus one tie), the Rams will officially clinch strength of victory.
Even if Los Angeles doesn’t clinch strength of victory this week, they have two full weeks to gain those 3.5 wins. So the Rams would almost certainly clinch the tiebreaker in Week 18 if it doesn’t this week.
How Does the Rams’ Week 17 Result Impact Their Playoff Scenarios?
The Rams are in control of their own destiny in Week 18, no matter what happens in Week 17. However, that doesn’t mean their Saturday night game vs. the Cardinals isn’t critical.
If L.A. loses to Arizona, Seattle’s playoff hopes will stay alive. The Week 18 matchup would become a true winner-take-all game because one of the scenarios would occur:
- The winner has the outright better record
- SEA wins and wins the division-record tiebreaker (4-2 vs. 3-3)
If the Rams win on Saturday, they will almost certainly win the strength of victory tiebreaker outlined above. Thus, while Saturday night can’t formally be called a clinching opportunity because it depends on some Sunday results coming through, it’s extremely improbable that the Rams will lose the division with a win over the Cardinals.
In other words, the Rams should treat Saturday night’s game as a chance to formally clinch the division. If they lose, then the Seahawks regain control of their own destiny and win the division with a road win at Los Angeles in Week 18.