Soppe’s Week 17 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 17 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (at BUF)

I went on a bit of a rant last week about why Aaron Rodgers’ heater was unlikely to extend into Week 16 and it worked out!

The future Hall of Famer wasn’t a top-20 QB after consecutive top-12 finishes at the position. If you’re betting on a rebound this week, I think it’s a bet on this run game, and while I won’t come out as strong as last week, I think that’s dangerous.

Back in Week 6, Rodgers had 294 yards with two touchdowns and one interception against the Bills, a production level you’d likely sign up for this time around if asked. In that performance, he had seven play-action completions totaling 131 yards, plays that were made possible by a successful running attack (21 carries for 121 yards). The question is if they can repeat that level of success on the ground in order to open the passing game up.

Buffalo can be had on the ground if you can remain competitive, so the matchup in that regard isn’t too scary. My concern is the Jets themselves and their trajectory. If you exclude the Week 15 games in Jacksonville, understanding that the Jaguars aren’t exactly the shining example of even an average NFL franchise, here are New York’s recent yards-per-carry numbers.

I’ve got Rodgers ranked in the Patrick Mahomes (at PIT) and C.J. Stroud (vs. BAL) tier — interestingly enough, a spot in which you don’t want to be. I’m looking for any excuse I can find to play someone else, and that includes taking a ride on the Anthony Richardson rollercoaster (at NYG).

Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (at NO)

The only quarterbacks with 150+ attempts and a lower touchdown rate than Aidan O’Connell this season are Spencer Rattler and Jacoby Brissett.

And yes, if you were wondering if Mac Jones, Daniel Jones, and/or Deshaun Watson have enough attempts to qualify, they do. Interestingly enough, his efficiency across the board improves when facing the blitz; it’s almost as if the less time he has to overthink things, the better.

That’s not the case for everyone, but it also might not matter this week with the ninth-lowest blitz rate coming to town. We need O’Connell to do one thing, and that’s funnel as many targets as humanly possible to Brock Bowers. He’s succeeded in doing that; if he can continue to do so, that’ll work. You’re not trying to invest mental/emotional energy into this team (or this game for that matter) if you can avoid it.

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (at NYG)

At this point, you know exactly what you’re getting from Anthony Richardson. For better or worse, what he is going to try to do is predictable — you just have to decide if you can stomach it.

On the surface, the Giants sound like a good matchup, partly because they are a bad football team that just gave up 34 points to a Falcons team starting a rookie quarterback for the first time and partly because it’s true.

This defense is a bottom-three unit when it comes to defending the deep pass (yards per attempt, touchdown rate, and completion percentage). I’m not trying to sell you that this defense is better than you think. I am, however, more concerned about them in this specific spot, and isn’t that what we are talking about?

They rank fifth in blitz rate through 16 weeks (31.8%; NFL average: 25.2%); as you might imagine, that introduces all sorts of downside for Richardson. His passer rating is underwhelming across the board, but it does dip by 20.6% when the opponent brings pressure, so I’m not sure those fun deep ball numbers have been accessed.

Also working against Indy’s volatile QB is facing a top-10 red-zone defense. He had the designed five-yard score last week and is a tank when in close, but if there’s one spot that this Giants’ defense has put up a fight, it’s after they’ve allowed you to get inside their 20-yard line.

Do what you want. I can’t project Richardson’s randomness with as much confidence as I can others, and I’m aware that he’s run for five scores in his past five games. His skill set is certainly more friendly for our game than the one he gets paid to play, I just don’t love this spot for him as much as you might at first blush.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (vs. CAR)

It’s easy to look back and see an underwhelming Baker Mayfield game against these Panthers in a narrow Week 13 victory in overtime (235 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions), but I’m just fine with writing that off.

Mayfield has a 71.2% completion rate and a 9.1% touchdown rate in the three games since and continues to add just enough with his legs to make an impact (79 rushing yards in those games). When you consider that he’s been better at home than on the road this year (17 touchdown passes in front of his home fans with at least 19 fantasy points in four of his past five such games), I think we are looking at a top-10 quarterback this week that I’d be more comfortable in playing than Jared Goff or Jordan Love.

The Panthers are the second most vulnerable defense in terms of deep completion percentage this season (55.2%), and with a pair of vertical threats, that’s a scab I expect Tampa Bay to pick at consistently.

Mayfield’s final line last week was strong (303 passing yards with another 42 on the ground and two scores through the air), and he could have given you another 7.8 points if Jalen McMillan didn’t have a 46-yard touchdown wrestled away from him at the last minute.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (at CIN)

Bo Nix joined some pretty strong company last Thursday night, even in defeat.

The always talked about 20-20-2 club.

20 completions
20 rush yards
2 pass TD

Since 2000, Bo Nix is the 3rd rookie drafted outside of the top-10 to do it in consecutive games, joining …

*2012 Russell Wilson
*2017 Deshaun Watson

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) December 20, 2024

Through 16 weeks, Nix is responsible for two of the five best fantasy QB performances against the Chargers this season. By itself, that is impressive. For a rookie to do that when you recall that Los Angeles has faced Patrick Mahomes twice, Kyler Murray, and (don’t laugh) Jameis Winston, it’s even better.

As you’d expect, there have been ups and downs within those performances, but the level of “ups” have been more than enough to go in this direction with a nice level of confidence.

• Week 6, second half: 16-of-23 for 194 yards and two touchdowns
• Week 16, first half: 15-of-21 for 155 yards and two touchdowns

The irresponsible analyst would combine those numbers and label that as a ceiling. I’m not going that far, but is it really that crazy of an idea?

There are no real signs of efficiency from this running game, which opens the door for high-end volume against a bottom-five secondary in terms of yards per slot target, end-zone passer rating, and about three million other niche statistics that I won’t bore you with.

Over the past decade, how many rookie QBs do you think had more 20-yard runs through 16 weeks of their rookie season than Nix (five)?

Four: Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jayden Daniels.

Over the past decade, how many rookie QBs do you think had more multi-TD pass games through 16 weeks of their rookie season than Nix (eight)?

One — Justin Herbert.

If you’re still playing meaningful games at this point of the season and have Nix rostered, I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know. You’ve likely been comfortable being uncomfortable at some level up to this point, and with a long week to prepare for Cincinnati’s “defense,” I expect more of the same as his first season nears a conclusion.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (vs. DET)

Brock Purdy has thrown for 300 yards and multiple scores in two of his past three games, though asking him to do that against the Lions is a bit of a tall request.

This Detroit defense is banged up, that much we know, but they were able to shut down the Bears last week and were impressive in doing so. This is, of course, a different animal, but even if you think they have some decline, there’s not a cliff awaiting.

Purdy’s struggles in the short passing game has been pronounced since Christian McCaffrey was lost for the season. He owns a career completion percentage on passes thrown under 10 yards of 71.8%. But over the past two weeks, we are looking at 61.7%.

Purdy’s profile doesn’t come with much upside, and there is risk given the matchup. He’s sitting just outside of my top 12 this week — I’d rather go with Tua Tagovailoa in Cleveland or Bo Nix in the premier spot against the Bengals.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (at TB)

Bryce Young is a work in progress. Next season will be a big one for his development, but there is no denying that there have been breadcrumbs laid.

In Weeks 12-16, he has not one, not two, but three top-12 finishes. That’s a fun fact by itself, and it only gains when you consider that Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, and Kyler Murray have three such finishes over that stretch combined.

He was unimpressive from a rate standpoint in the first meeting this season with the Bucs (6.5 yards per pass and a 2.2% touchdown rate), but he was able to volume his way to a fine stat line thanks to overtime (298 passing yards and a touchdown).

Young comes with a wide weekly range of outcomes and limited consistency. Next season might be interesting, but for now, only two-QB/Superflex leagues are concerned about him in a meaningful way.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (vs. SEA)

Caleb Williams has three games with 330+ passing yards and multiple passing scores — Andrew Luck is the only QB to have more such games as a rookie (four).

I think it’s safe to say that this season hasn’t gone quite the way that Williams truthers were hoping for. But like some of the other young quarterbacks, there are enough signals pointing in the right direction for me to be interested.

Williams isn’t going to impact any one-QB leagues down the stretch of this season, but savvy managers will keep an eye on his late-season development and bank it in their minds for drafts in September.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (vs. BAL)

No part of this season has been what you paid for from C.J. Stroud. He was the fifth quarterback off of most draft boards (don’t worry, the name closest to him in ADP at the position was Anthony Richardson, so it’s not as if you flipped a coin and landed on the wrong side).

If you’re anything like me, you didn’t want to fully punt on Stroud, understanding that Nico Collins is a special receiver who has the ability elevate those around him.

I mean, we’ve seen Courtland Sutton support Superman Bo Nix weeks and Calvin Ridley put Will Levis on streaming radars. We all prefer this Houston situation to those by a mile, so how bad could things really get?

And if you were really overthinking things, “at the very least, I get a competitive team hosting a Ravens team that can both push this offense to score while also being vulnerable through the air” likely crossed your mind. I know it did for me.

Now? Now, we’re in trouble, and I’m looking to stream out the position with my championship on the line.

Not great, Bob. Not great.

Stroud still has talent around him, but the loss of Tank Dell is impactful in more ways than one.

• Yards per attempt with Dell: 8.0
• Yards per attempt without Dell: 7.0 (down 12.5%)
• Air yards per non-pressured pass with Dell: 8.8
• Air yards per non-pressured pass without Dell: 6.6 (down 25%)
• Deep passer rating with Dell: 107.4
• Deep passer rating without Dell: 90 (down 16.2%)

To make matters worse, this matchup is no longer the cupcake we thought. Two months ago, we saw Jameis Winston carve Baltimore up (334 yards and three touchdowns), and in Week 10, Joe Burrow force-fed Ja’Marr Chase on his way to 428 yards and four scores.

At the very least, I thought a ceiling week had the potential of happening for Stroud, but that’s no longer the case. Since that Burrow explosion, Baltimore’s yards per pass allowed is down 25.3%, and I no longer trust Stroud to take advantage of the Ravens’ primary flaw — if you still believe it’s a weakness.

In his first 19 games, Stroud didn’t throw an interception on 147 deep pass attempts. Since then, he has six interceptions on 97 such attempts.

The Ravens are always a threat to dictate tempo (five games this season with over 33.5 minutes of possession). Although the Texans can do that as well, they haven’t been lately (three of their four lowest time of possession games this season have come since Week 12).

I can’t put Stroud in the Bo Nix (at CIN) or Kyler Murray (at LAR) tier this week. Heck, him or Richardson (at NYG) is something I struggled with ranking wise, though it’s unlikely to be a decision you’re actually faced with.

There may be a buy-the-dip situation with Stroud this summer, but for fantasy championships, I’m actively making excuses to look elsewhere.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (at PHI)

Brandon Aubrey has more 55+ yard made field goals this season (six) than the Cowboys have 55+ yard plays during the regular season since the start of 2023 (five).

Things aren’t great in Dallas these days, but Cooper Rush does have 290 passing yards or multiple touchdown tosses in four of his past five games. Like half a dozen quarterbacks that will be gracing NFL fields this week, his value is not what we are worried about as much as it is his ability to get his top option involved.

Mission accomplished up to this point.

The Eagles’ defense is elite, and Rush isn’t likely to finish the week with top-15 or even top-20 numbers (Week 10 in this spot: 23 passes for 45 yards with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions). But if he can get CeeDee Lamb his required 10 looks, the fantasy community will give Rush a nice firm handshake and nod.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (vs. LV)

Derek Carr has the potential to return this week for the Saints for reasons unknown, but his status shouldn’t be of concern in fantasy circles given the carnage around him at the skill positions.

Even with talent coming in and out, Carr has failed to throw multiple touchdown passes in the majority of his games this season, and that is going to render any pocket-locked signal-caller as close to useless.

I give him credit for trying to return to action and finish the season, but my fantasy bills aren’t paid on credit.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB | CLE (vs. MIA)

If you ever need to feel good about your quarterback (be it for your favorite team or your fantasy squad), throw on the game film from Cleveland’s loss in Cincinnati last week, and you’ll be in a better mental spot.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s sack count was higher than the yards he averaged per pass, and I’m not sure the box score (20-of-34 for 157 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions) even does it justice.

Could we get Jameis Winston back in our lives? DTR suffered a calf injury on Sunday and is being managed thus far. The Dolphins allow the third-highest deep completion percentage, a weakness that holds much more weight if it’s Winston under center.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson on passes thrown 15+ yards this season: 0-11 with 3 interceptions pic.twitter.com/lFzMzsSJHM

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 23, 2024

Drake Maye, QB | NE (vs. LAC)

Drake Maye is pretty clearly a fantasy asset in the making, but his supporting cast isn’t on par with that of a Jayden Daniels, so there’s no need to take on this level of risk for marginal upside.

The Chargers aren’t often challenged down the field, but they can be had for the chunk play if Maye is afforded the time to throw (LAC: 13.4% deep touchdown rate, the highest in the league).

The inverse of that, however, is what happens when those big plays don’t connect. This is the defense that owns the 10th-highest sack rate and is the best in the game at preventing red-zone trips from turning into touchdowns. Maye has fantasy stardom in his future, but not so much in the present with a subpar supporting cast and some learning still to do.

Drew Lock, QB | NYG (vs. IND)

A heel injury kept Drew Lock out of Week 15’s loss to the Ravens, and there was the thought that it may end his season. Well, it didn’t, but that doesn’t make him a name you have to track in any capacity.

For our purposes, the season is, and has been, over. In his five appearances this season, Lock has completed just 51.1% of his passes, and over the past four seasons, he has more interceptions (24) than touchdown passes (22).

I probably didn’t tell you anything you didn’t know there, so I’ll share with you that Lock is another one of those go-by-my-middle-name guys. So, go ahead and break that out at your family gatherings this week. Impress with your array of random knowledge. Drew Lock’s first name is … Paul.

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (at CHI)

I’d love to sit here and spew optimism for Geno Smith in a plus matchup, but I just can’t get there. Sure, he’s completed over 70% of his passes this season (76.1% over the past three weeks), but the up-and-down nature of his fantasy stats has me looking elsewhere if possible.

Smith has either failed to throw multiple touchdown passes or has multiple interceptions in eight straight games, and the rushing production is impossible to bank on. He’s also turning into one of those “good at home, bad on the road” guys — a trend I don’t always put much stock into, but I am more likely to do it when a West Coast QB is coming east.

Smith’s last three road games:

• Week 11 at 49ers: 15.7 points (QB21)
• Week 13 at Jets: 12.4 points (QB26)
• Week 14 at Cardinals: 13.3 points (QB20)

Smith has largely underwhelmed in stand-alone spots this season (three prime-time games: 127 passes, two touchdowns, four interceptions, and just 12.9 fantasy ppg). And with a handful of those fringe QBs also in reasonable spots (Matthew Stafford hosting the Cardinals, Justin Herbert getting the Patriots, etc.), there just isn’t room in my top 15 for Smith this week.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (vs. DAL)

Jalen Hurts completed 1 of 4 passes for 11 yards in Week 16 before entering concussion protocol and being ruled out for the remainder of the game. This was obviously a brutal break for fantasy managers, as there was no reason to not play him with the utmost confidence (2023 was his first season without a DNP).

Process wise, you did nothing wrong. I understand that prioritizing process over results this time of year is irritating to hear, but you did nothing wrong.

This is pretty clearly a situation to keep tabs on and will require some creativity on your end if you still have meaningful games in front of you. Kenny Pickett isn’t the answer to your issues.

Hurts turned 14 completions into 202 yards and a pair of scores (56 rush yards and two touchdowns) in the Week 10 shellacking of the Cowboys — Pickett isn’t assuming that sort of projection.

Maybe you go to Michael Penix Jr. (at WAS) or lean into the recent struggles of the Bears and take a chance on a sporadic producer in Geno Smith.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (at SF)

Jared Goff isn’t going to win the MVP, but he is certainly playing like one, and it’s finally spilling over into our world with consecutive top-five finishes. This is a potential pace-down spot against the 49ers, but efficiency has been the name of the game all season long for the Lions. That should again be the case against the NFL’s third-worst red-zone defense.

The home/road splits are still a thing for Goff, but he’s posted a passer rating north of 135 on the road three times this season. I’m not worried about that narrative and have him ranked as my QB8.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (vs. ATL)

Jayden Daniels has been a top-seven producer at the position in four straight games and has seemingly found our silly game so easy that he’s now elevating Jamison Crowder to vintage levels.

The rookie has four straight games with at least 30 rushing yards and multiple touchdown tosses — a fifth straight would make him the first in NFL history to accomplish that feat. Currently, he’s in a class with Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Randall Cunningham, and Mitch Trubisky as the players to have done it in four straight.

Every fun stat has an outlier — shoutout to all the Mitch Trubisky fans that are out there!

Daniels is everything we wanted Robert Griffin III to be, and there’s no reason to think that this train gets knocked off the tracks any time soon.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (vs. DEN)

You know that Joe Burrow is the first ever with 250 passing yards and three passing TDs in seven straight. Extend his numbers from those games for a full season, and he’s posting a 5,430-yard, 58-TD season (for reference, 2007 Tom Brady’s 17-game pace: 5,106 yards and 53 TDs).

It’s hard to overstate just how Burrow has been. The passing floor has been special and should continue to be for the remainder of this season, but the trick here is not getting too excited for 2025.

Burrow is as good as advertised, we know that. But he’s run hot this season, and if regression kicks in and Tee Higgins is out, there’s a world in which he’s an overdrafted commodity this summer.

Rates on short passes:

• 2024: 6.6% TD rate and a 0.8% INT rate
• 2020-23: 4.2% TD rate and a 1.1% INT rate

Without much projectable rushing in his profile, injury risks are still in the mix, and potentially less firepower — consider me a skeptic based on early ADP projections.

Jordan Love, QB | GB (at MIN)

Jordan Love wasn’t asked to do much in Monday night’s thrashing of the New Orleans Saints (16 completions for 182 yards and a touchdown), something that I don’t think we have to worry about this week.

Or maybe we do?

The Packers rank third in rush rate over expectation this season and appear more content to pound Josh Jacobs now than at any point this season. Not only does this help keep Justin Jefferson off the field, but it also wears down a defense and limits the number of times that Love can put the ball in harm’s way.

Working in Love’s favor is that the blitz-happy Vikings have so much going on around the line of scrimmage that they’re a tough defense when it comes to finishing drives against on the ground, allowing one rushing touchdown for every 48.1 opponent attempts (third-best).

Cheap touchdowns might be needed in this game that I apparently like less from an offensive output standpoint than the bookmakers (under 49 points!).

Love’s QB+ numbers are actually better on the road than at home this season, but they haven’t translated into big fantasy production, and that’s the name of the game.

Love’s fantasy finishes, road games in 2024:

• Week 1, Eagles: QB11
• Week 5, Rams: QB14
• Week 8, Jaguars: QB35
• Week 11, Bears: QB11
• Week 14, Lions: QB15
• Week 15, Seahawks: QB10

If you’re combing through the box-score data and a 389-yard, four-touchdown first meeting against the Vikings jumps out, don’t forget that three TD passes in the fourth quarter of a one-sided game are fueling that stat line.

All production counts, sure, but are you projecting garbage time in a game where the home team is favored by 1.5 points? I’m not.

I think you can start Love, he’s my QB11. But I don’t think you have to — I have Jared Goff (at SF) and Bo Nix (at CIN) ranked just ahead of him.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. NYJ)

I think we can give Josh Allen a pass for last week from an analysis standpoint. You, of course, can’t do that if his slow game against the Patriots knocked you out of the playoffs.

Yet, if you’re still playing a meaningful game this week, there should be exactly zero hesitation in going back to the MVP front-runner who was a top-two signal-caller in each of the three weeks prior to Week 16.

The Bills showed us that they knew how to beat the Jets back in Week 6 (Allen had a rushing score, but he also completed 15 of 18 non-pressured passes for 148 yards and a touchdown), and I see no reason to think they can’t have success in a similar fashion this time around.

Jets’ pressure rates, 2024:

• Weeks 1-13: 39.9%
• Weeks 14-16: 24.8%

Don’t overthink this.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (at NE)

Every season in every sport, we see players who are worth more in our game than in the “real” game.

Justin Herbert is the opposite. The less the Chargers rely on Herbert, the happier Jim Harbaugh is.

Consider this — Harbaugh’s star quarterback is hardly averaging more pass attempts this season (28.7) than completions in 2022 (28.1). That, of course, is not near ideal for our purposes, and when you consider that Herbert’s alpha WR1 is a rookie, the ceiling/floor combination isn’t exactly working in our favor.

But maybe this is a good spot?

Herbert is coming off of a Thursday night game that saw him complete a season-high 11 passes in play-action situations, and the Patriots happen to own a bottom-five touchdown rate in defending such passes. The volume is one thing, but that’s not what encouraged me the most from the win over the Broncos: 2.6 yards.

That’s all Herbert averaged in air yards on those play-action attempts. That’s nothing (Weeks 1-15: 9.3).

Some will read that as an unwillingness to challenge downfield, and I’m not saying that’s wrong, but I don’t think it’s the angle to take. In my eyes, this could forecast putting more on Herbert’s plate and making his right arm a supplement to the traditional run game.

Don’t get me wrong, I still think Los Angeles looks to establish the run, especially as a road favorite on long rest. That said, last week gave me a little more hope in terms of a ceiling when it comes to dropbacks and, thus, quarterback value.

I don’t think it would be crazy to think Herbert returns value similar to last week, which makes him a reasonable option in the money round of fantasy leagues if you are without a star at the position.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (at LAR)

Kyler Murray simply hasn’t been the fantasy asset we dreamt of this offseason. And while this matchup doesn’t scare me on the surface, the sheer fact that the Rams boast the fifth-best red-zone defense is enough for me to consider benching Murray if I have access to upside elsewhere.

We’ve seen Arizona’s signal-caller throw at least as many interceptions as touchdown passes in five straight games, and Murray’s TD pass rate over his past seven (2.2%) falls short of what passing savantes like Daniel Jones and Deshaun Watson have put on film this season (both at 2.3%).

It goes without saying that Murray is always one long run away from saving his fantasy day, which is why he’s still hovering around that QB12 mark for me.

But even the numbers on the ground have been spotty. After reaching 45 rushing yards in five of seven games to open this season, he’s cleared 21 yards in just two of eight.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (at HOU)

The development of this Lamar Jackson and Todd Monken relationship is special. We knew it had the potential to take over, but the growth behind the gaudy box-score numbers is what has impressed me.

The two-time MVP, with two weeks to go, already has a career high in touchdown passes. Jackson has thrown for multiple scores in four straight games and in eight of his past nine. But it’s been the “how” that has me believing not only in this matchup and in his potential to make a run during the playoffs, but for years to come.

Last season, Jackson had a quick throw rate of 59.1%. That’s below league average, but it was above his career rate and a second straight season of increase. There seemed to be a level of wanting to maybe not “hide” Jackson as a passer, but in the first season in this system, there wasn’t a rush to ask him to progress through reads.

That’s changed this season, and it’s looked amazing. Jackson’s quick throw rate through 16 weeks sits at 53.6% of the time, and he looks as comfortable as ever in letting the aerial game come to him, understanding that his elite athleticism is there if need be.

In-pocket passer rating by season:

• 2021: 87.2
• 2022: 92.2
• 2023: 100.9
• 2024: 118.7

The Texans’ three lowest sack rates have all been posted in the second half of the season, making it difficult to envision Houston knocking Jackson off of his perch this week.

There’s inherent risk that comes with betting on Baltimore’s passing game, but it has nothing to do with the passing game. That Derrick Henry guy is always a threat to limit Jackson’s volume (seven sub-20 completion games this season), but now that we are getting quality through the air, I’m less worried today about that than I was four months — or even four weeks — ago.

Mac Jones, QB | JAX (vs. TEN)

Mac Jones’ final stat line ended up looking fine against the Raiders last week (247 yards and a touchdown), but if not for a single play (62-yard touchdown to Brian Thomas Jr.), he would have posted an absolute dud in a great spot.

Jones is at obvious risk of being involved in another ugly slugfest this week, and with a 2.4% touchdown rate this season, I have no interest in going this direction under any circumstances. Much like Aidan O’Connell in Vegas, or even his opposing number in this game, Jones has one job, and that is to feed his top receiving option like his life depends on it.

Jones’ life may not, but our fantasy seasons do!

Mason Rudolph, QB | TEN (at JAX)

Bar trivia time: Entering Week 17, how many players have an active streak longer than Mason Rudolph in terms of multi-touchdown pass games?

Four.

Rudolph has done it in three straight, a mark that ranks behind only Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and Jayden Daniels.

I could just leave that note there and let you get in your own head about getting creative with Rudolph in deep leagues or DFS formats, but let’s not do that.

The Jags own the lowest blitz rate in the league, and you might assume that means that Rudolph won’t be forced into bad decisions this week. But as it turns out, he’s plenty capable of making those bad throws all by himself.

It’s almost like the Titans have a type.

Rudolph hasn’t just thrown a pick in each of his five starts, he’s thrown a pick when not blitzed in each of them, including three last week in Indianapolis.

If you want to label Rudolph as the most valuable fantasy QB in this game, you have my blessing. If you want to have exposure to him in any capacity, I have questions.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (vs. ARI)

Matthew Stafford hasn’t been asked to do much lately, and that’s crushed his fantasy upside (46 pass attempts for 270 yards and one touchdown total over his past two games). His number also wasn’t called in a major way in the first meeting with the Cardinals (19 of 27 for 216 yards).

I worry that could be the case here. Arizona owns the second-worst third-down defense in the NFL through 16 weeks, so I’m not worried about what Stafford can do when given the opportunity. But without rushing potential, a low-volume game through the air is almost impossible to overcome.

There’s not much risk in starting Stafford if you have a loaded roster or play in a 2QB league. It’s the lack of upside that prevents me from slotting him higher than QB15.

Michael Penix Jr., QB | ATL (at WAS)

I thought Michael Penix Jr. showed well for himself in the first start of his career, but we are still a ways away from him being fantasy viable.

That said, Penix completed two-thirds of his passes against the Giants last week and faces a Commanders defense that is bottom seven in both red-zone efficiency and YAC allowed to receivers.

There are a few rookie QBs we are counting on for fantasy production this season. Penix is not there, but I think he can do enough to keep Atlanta’s primary skill options fed.

Patrick Mahomes, QB | KC (at PIT)

I’m old enough to remember when we were sweating Patrick Mahomes’ health. Surely the ankle injury from Week 15 was going to limit his mobility if the Chiefs elected to play him in Week 16, right?

• Career-long touchdown run (15 yards)
• Extends his longest regular-season streak of games with a 10+ yard run since Weeks 1-4, 2023

OK, so that didn’t pan out, but when the pressure ramped up, surely he’d hesitate and not deliver. Right?

• He’s converted seven of 10 passes on third downs (previous two games: eight of 21)

Man, this dude is good. But there’s no way, when we shrink the field, that Mahomes could find room to maneuver. Fully healthy quarterbacks struggle in this regard at times, so a compromised version of Mahomes would see his efficiency in scoring situations decline, right?

• Recent red-zone run, since Week 8: 70.5% completion percentage with 16 TDs and zero INTs

The Steelers’ defense is stout and will come to play, but they have taken on some water of late (10.4% more yards per pass attempt allowed since Week 12 than the first 11 weeks).

The Chiefs are looking to lock in the AFC’s top seed and can worry about resting their star QB next week. I’m not going out of my way to start Mahomes on a weird short week, but I’m not getting creative in replacing him the way we have at times this season.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (vs. KC)

Russell Wilson is averaging just 6.2 yards per pass during the three games in which George Pickens has sat; with just 167.7 pass yards per game, there’s no reason to go this direction in a tough matchup.

Wilson can do enough to keep the Steelers competitive, both this week and during the postseason, but not for your fantasy team. The fewer possessions that are played the better for Mike Tomlin, and that’s not a way to optimize your fantasy lineup.

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (vs. GB)

Sam Darnold was great last week in Seattle (246 passing yards with three passing scores), has been great most of the season, and didn’t stumble in Lambeau (275 passing yards with three scores).

He’s thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his past six games, and nothing in his profile suggests that regression is coming. With T.J. Hockenson proving healthy, Jordan Addison emerging, and Justin Jefferson Justin Jefferson-ing, this Vikings squad is a dangerous one to bet against at this point.

The Packers rank 27th in blitz rate this season (18%), a strategy that has been picked at by Minnesota lately. Since Week 12, Lamar Jackson is the only QB with a higher passing touchdown rate when not blitzed than Darnold — this could be a highly entertaining game that paves the way for another fun NFC North battle next week with the Lions and Vikings.

Spencer Rattler, QB | NO (vs. LV)

There are a few instances this week where our DFS discipline is going to be challenged — “I know [INSERT QB] is struggling and might not be NFL-caliber, but how can I not get exposure to [INSERT DEFENSE]?”

Stay strong, my friends; stay strong.

Spencer Rattler was a disaster against the Packers on Monday night, and it resulted in the Saints being the first team shut out for four quarters this season. I’ll take the over on 0.5 points scored in this spot, but what is it that New Orleans’ backup QB can do that has you the least bit interested?

He’s run for over 25 yards in three starts this season, and that’s something, though his Saints have lost each of those games by at least 23 points while garbage time has factored in. I’m not sure either team is capable of providing such a script this week, so we can rule out the empty stats at the end of the game.

The layup targets are supposed to be where a QB like this thrives, especially in a playbook full of them. Not so much. Over his past three outings, Rattler has completed just 24 of 51 short passes, a rate (47.1%) that falls well short of the NFL average (73.5%)

There’s always 2025, Saints fans.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (at CLE)

Tua Tagovailoa is far from a perfect fantasy quarterback. He doesn’t run (two rushing yards thus far in December) and he doesn’t stretch the field through the air, instead relying fully on his playmakers to do the heavy lifting.

That’s not a profile I make a habit of investing in, especially with one of those pieces (Jaylen Waddle) battling a knee injury, but I think this has the potential to be the week — the week where you cash a nice DFS lineup courtesy of an explosive Dolphins game at low ownership.

Think about it.

Tagovailoa is unlikely to attract ownership for the reasons mentioned above. He’s also not in great form (411 passing yards with more interceptions than touchdowns over the past two weeks) and this game is being played in the northeast.

But wait.

… a warm front is coming up the coast for the week?

But wait.

… the Browns rank 31st in deep pass interception rate and 32nd in yards per short completion?

If either the Chargers or Broncos lose this week (both play before Miami is scheduled to kick off), the Dolphins will still have postseason life. It would be little more than a pulse, but that heart would still be beating if one of those things happens, thus giving us a high-motivation spot against a defense that is playing out the string (all four losses during their current skid have come by multiple scores).

Interesting.

Obviously, I’d prefer Waddle be healthy and to get a Denver loss on Saturday to ensure these things, but the more ambiguity that takes place, the more I like the odds of getting a condensed passing game with upside at a very low cost.

Tentative Main Slate Soppe DFS Lineup

• QB – Tua Tagovailoa
• RB – Jonathan Taylor
• RB – Jerome Ford
• WR – Tyreek Hill
• WR – Jayden Reed
• WR – Adam Thielen
• TE – Chig Okonkwo
• FLEX – Jalen McMillan
• D/ST – Indianapolis Colts

Let’s pay off some Christmas debt!

Week 17 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (vs. GB)

I think we are pretty comfortable in the labeling and projecting of Aaron Jones after 16 weeks — he’s safe. We are looking at 15-18 carries with 2-4 targets and reasonable scoring potential given the trajectory of this offense (152 points over its past five games).

In his first revenge game against the Packers, Jones gave us ceiling usage with 22 carries and five targets (139 scrimmage yards). If they pound him like that against a Green Bay team that is likely to do the same with Josh Jacobs, this could be a low-possession game that caps the upside of all involved.

Even if that’s the case, you’re getting bell-cow work in an efficient offense – I prefer Jacobs to Jones, but you’re playing both.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (at NO)

Alexander Mattison punched in a short score last week as the starting tailback against the Jaguars and even managed to earn seven targets in this offense that has far more questions than answers at this point.

The usage was nice and the inefficiencies predictable (2.3 yards per carry and a 57.1% catch rate). You can chase the role and Flex Mattison in deeper formats, but the problem is that I am more confident that the struggles to consistently gain yardage are more sticky than a role that saw him get 19 opportunities (12 carries and seven targets).

I’m giving him a 4-6 touch advantage edge to Ameer Abdullah, but at 3.2 yards per carry this season, you’re leaning heavily on the passing game where Abdullah is the preferred option and/or scoring chances, something that isn’t exactly the norm in Vegas these days.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (vs. LV)

Alvin Kamara has had a highly productive season (nine top-15 finishes) and is currently sitting at 1.2% over expectation for the year, his best mark since 2021. But the groin injury that sidelined him for Monday night certainly has the potential to hold him out this week, thus leaving you without a big part of your regular-season run in your biggest matchup of the year.

Kamara will turn 30 years old in July, and while the pass-catching skills have aged well, I continue to think that we are on borrowed time with him as a weekly asset. The rushing efficiency is fleeting to say the least (career-high 20.2% of his carries have failed to gain yardage this season), and if Kendre Miller can provide this franchise with confidence that he can be a two-down back, we could be looking at a hit-and-miss RB in an average offense that relies on checkdown passes.

That’s not to say Kamara won’t be usable in 2024 (the Saints have an out if they want it in his backloaded contract), but I think there’s a good chance his ADP reflects more name value than projectable production this offseason.

Ameer Abdullah, RB | LV (at NO)

Ameer Abdullah punched in a touchdown and caught five of six targets – it’s gross, but he’s been reasonably usable in four of his past six games. Alexander Mattison is the better bet to lead this team in the rushing production, but he’s done nothing to earn a featured role. As long as Abdullah is at least given the chance to reach 12-14 opportunities (carries + targets), there is low-end PPR appeal here.

This should be a competitive game (not a fun game, a competitive one), and that is the exact environment in which Abdullah gave us 85 yards and a touchdown last week. I’m not forecasting a repeat performance, but he’s at least a warm body if your roster is really hurting for viable options.

Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (at CIN)

Audric Estimé has seen his snap share increase for three straight weeks, but those are drops in an ocean. The rookie out of Notre Dame showed the ability to carry the mail while with the Irish (210 carries in 2023) but hasn’t been trusted with more than six in nine of 11 games this season.

It was encouraging to see Estimé get Denver’s first carry in Week 16 and score on the opening drive. Yet, even in an increased role with part of the Broncos committee sidelined (Jaleel McLaughlin), Estimé didn’t reach double figures in touches, which makes him a tough sell on an offense that can be sporadic.

Like every other RB listed on this depth chart, Estimé is a track-not-trust option. We can take another crack at extracting value from this Sean Payton-led situation in 2025.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (at WAS)

We are finally getting everything we wanted from the Falcons when it comes to Bijan Robisnon. We could complain about it taking this long and the benching of a quarterback signed to a nine-figure deal, but what good would that do?

The star running back has been a top-15 performer in nine of his past 10 games and has carried the rock at least 22 times in all four contests this month, The Commanders are humming on offense and have the third-worst run defense in terms of yards allowed per carry before first contact – if this isn’t a spot to give Robinson the Josh Jacobs treatment and load him up with early work, then it doesn’t exist.

You’re starting him everywhere, and you might have Week 17’s best Flex player on your roster.

Blake Corum, RB | LAR (vs. ARI)

Blake Corum gets his drive or two a game, and that’s cute. It’s also infuriating for those holding Kyren Williams’ bags, but that’s all it is. It’s just a wrinkle, not a feature.

The rookie has posted a sub-20% snap share in three consecutive games and for the bulk of the season, outside of an outlier Week 13 win against the Saints in which he was on the field for 32.7% of the Rams’ plays.

Corum has yet to clear eight touches in a game this year. While holding a handcuff was a logical strategy up to this point, you’re in go-for-it mode now. You don’t need to cut ties with Corum, but if you’re trying to maximize the number of Flex options you have in a do-or-die situation, I’d much rather use that roster spot for a home-run-hitting receiver or a secondary RB where there are questions about the starter.

As things stand right now, we have no reason to think that Williams will see anything less than his standard workload this week, which means that Corum doesn’t project as a usable piece.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (at BUF)

That was fun while it lasted. Braelon Allen is an interesting young player, and the thought was that he could see some extended work down the stretch of this lost season. Unfortunately, that doesn’t appear to be the case:

Week 16 NYJ RB Usage

Breece Hall: 79.4% snaps, 6 targets, 14 PPR points
Braelon Allen: 12.7% snaps, 1 target, 2 PPR points
Isaiah Davis: 12.7% snaps, 0 targets, 1.2 PPR points

You can safely cut ties with all non-Hall backs in New York. Allen will be a Tier 1 handcuff next season, but for the fantasy playoffs, he adds no value to your roster.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (at BUF)

Breece Hall was RB13 or better in three straight games to open the season and most of us figured it was wheels up for a big season.

That hasn’t proven to be the case, however, as he has just three finishes better than RB18 since that initial burst. At the very least, as mentioned above, we saw him reassume his role as the lead man in this backfield – that makes him playable, even if none of his 14 carries last week gained more than seven yards.

In an underwhelming statistical performance against the Rams, Hall still had his moments. On a critical third down in the second half, he took a dump off pass and wedged between defenders to move the chains. The impact ended up being minimal, but it’s plays like that that help explain the long-term optimism.

The Jets gave him 23 touches in Week 6 against these Bills and he rewarded them with 169 yards from scrimmage. I don’t think we get a repeat performance, but Buffalo certainly encourages their opponents to run and/or check down, putting Hall in a position to be a RB2 at worst. I think he comes loaded with RB1 upside.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. ATL)

Brian Robinson Jr.’s lack of involvement in the passing game has been one of the storylines that only bothers fantasy managers, but we’ve seen signs of life lately (five catches over the past two games after tallying four in his previous six games).

We feel good about him getting the work near the goal line if Washington finds themselves in such a spot, so adding even just 3-4 targets per game would elevate him from low-end RB2 to weekly asset.

With the Commanders’ offense clicking (98 points over the past three games), I think you’re getting quality exposure wherever you can – Robinson qualifies as such.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (vs. CAR)

Bucky Irving is the Buccaneers’ lead running back and has worked his way into the must-start tier at the position. We’ve seen this offense support two top-20 running backs since Week 10, and while projecting that to continue is optimistic, Irving shouldn’t have any issues living up to his end of the bargain as a heavy favorite against a team he ran for 152 yards and a touchdown against in Week 13.

I mentioned that Week 10 stat – if you simply give Irving 32% of Rachaad White’s production over that window, he’d be averaging 22.6 PPR points per game.

Saquon Barkley is fantasy’s RB1 this season at 22.4 PPG.

However you are currently viewing Irving for 2025 might be too low.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (vs. DEN)

Chase Brown has reached 20 touches in three straight games and has an 88.2% catch rate in December. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase get the attention for the success of this offense, but Brown has been critical for this team to make its late-season run.

I’ve lowered expectations due to a matchup against the second-best red-zone and yards-per-play defense in the league, but not to the point where there is a decision to be made. You made a great pick at the draft and you’re reaping the rewards – don’t stop now!

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (at TB)

Chuba Hubbard shined again last week, clearing 160 scrimmage yards for the third time this season. He has more top-10 finishes at the position this season than Derrick Henry, an outcome I certainly did not see coming.

He’s Carolina’s best chance at success and that’s why you’re playing him. The volume appears to be about as safe as any RB in the league, so I’m willing to overlook a Week 13 dud in this exact matchup. In that game, his 12 carries netted 43 yards and he was unable to rip off a 10+ yard gain.

That’s very much been the exception, not the norm in 2024. You’re playing Hubbard, even if you’d rather not watch the Panthers as a whole.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (vs. SEA)

Swift hasn’t been a top-20 performer at the position since Week 11, and that was the last time he overachieved expectations. He’s averaging just 1.39 yards per carry before contact this season, a low rate that he has failed to reach in each of his past three games.

The role feels safe, and the versatility is enough to keep him in the Flex mix, but I can’t tell you that I’m thrilled about playing Swift. Remove two outlier carries this season, and we are talking about a running back who is averaging 3.4 yards per carry on an inconsistent offense.

There is more risk than reward with Swift these days, but 15+ touch projections don’t grow on trees. That’s enough to land him in the low end of my PPR Flex rankings.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (at HOU)

Inevitable.

I wish there was a better word for it, and maybe there is (I majored in math, not English), but it’s suitable. Derrick Henry has averaged over three yards per carry after contact in all four games since Thanksgiving, and it seems impossible to slow him for six straight minutes, let alone 60.

The dream of 2,000 yards on the ground isn’t dead (364 yards to go and four of his six career 200-yard rushing games have come against the Texans, two of which were Week 17 dates in Houston).

That’s about all we are watching at this point; You’re playing Henry every single week until he retires.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (vs. IND)

Devin Singletary has done nothing of substance outside of a garbage time touchdown here and there for a few months. Tyrone Tracy Jr. has established himself as the clear alpha in this backfield. Reasonable minds can argue as to the value of that role (keep reading), but this isn’t the type of offense that you’d burn a roster spot with a handcuff.

That’s obviously the case in Week 17, but looking forward, remember that in rostering a handcuff, you’re buying stock in an offense more than a single player. I’m not a financial expert, but at any point would you have wanted NYG stock in your portfolio?

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (at CLE)

De’Von Achane is just the second running back over the past three seasons to have a four game streak with at least seven targets and seven rush attempts, joining Alvin Kamara (Weeks 4-9 earlier this season).

He fits this Tua Tagovailoa-led offense like a glove and there’s no reason to pivot now. The efficiency on the ground hasn’t been close to what we saw a season ago, but the spike in usage through the air has more than compensated for that.

Achane has been a top-15 producer at the position in six straight games, and that feels like a near lock to continue through this week. The tricky part will be projecting for 2025 — do we middle his efficiency and keep the receiving role as is? If that’s the path you take, we are talking about a running back who is an unquestionable first-round pick.

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (at NE)

The Gus Bus. Gus-timus Prime. Edwards Touchdownhands.

The Gus Edwards experience is certainly a unique one, and if you ran into his 20.1 PPR points last Thursday night, I’m happy for you. I’m also fully cautioning you in a reasonably forceful way for Week 17.

It’s true that Edwards was an impactful part of matchups last week, but we are in the business of projecting forward, not living in the past. I’m a man of sample sizes, so let’s extend this a bit.

If you go back 21 games (Why 21? Well 22 games ago, Edwards had an 80-yard reception that blows up any projection based analysis), 49.5% of his PPR points have come on touchdowns. It’s one thing to have a valuable trait, it’s another to rely on that completely to put food on the table of fantasy managers.

Just how ugly have the non-TD touches been? That’s where you lose me in wanting to play Edwards in any capacity this week against a team that ranks top five in opponent running back rush TD rate since Week 6.

In those 21 games, Edwards has averaged 0.46 PPR points per non-touchdown touch. That sounds bad, and, with context, it gets worse.

If we look at this season, that rate ranks in the Ty Chandler, Zamir White, and Carson Steele tier. If you bet against me getting those names into a Week 17 article, you lose. If you play Edwards this week, that is, in my opinion, likely to be the case as well.

Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (at PIT)

I was as big an Isiah Pacheco fan as anyone this summer, and things…well things haven’t gone as planned.

I think the process was sound, given the information we had at the time, but successful fantasy managers don’t stay tethered to their prior takes. And if you’re looking to optimize your lineup in Week 17, I don’t think Pacheco is a part of the equation.

Kansas City Rushing Production vs. HOU, First Half

• Patrick Mahomes: 2 carries for 27 yards, TD
• Pacheco: 4 carries for 13 yards
• Kareem Hunt: 2 carries for 8 yards, TD
• Xavier Worthy: 2 carries for 3 yards

The usage gets worse the closer you look (21.4% red-zone snap share to Kareem Hunt’s 50% in his four games back), and even my go-to Pacheco numbers aren’t the same. This season, he’s averaging 22% fewer yards after contact than Hunt and has just 20 receiving yards to show for his seven December targets.

It’s the Chiefs — Pacheco probably runs for 350 yards in January on the way to a three-peat. That might well happen, but that’s not going to help you on your quest for a 2024 title. I’m out on Pacheco this week in all formats, and that hurts my soul.

Isaac Guerendo, RB | SF (vs. DET)

A hamstring injury cost Isaac Guerendo last week and could well end his season given that the team has nothing left to play for.

That said, we’ve seen teams make questionable health decisions like this in the past, and if we get sparkling health reports, you’d almost be obligated to Flex this role from a process standpoint.

San Francisco’s bell-cow role, percentage of RB touches:

• • Weeks 1-2, Jordan Mason: 87.5%
  • Weeks 10-11, Christian McCaffrey: 89.3%
  • Weeks 14-15, Guerendo (minus Q4 of Week 14): 94.4%
  • Week 16, Patrick Taylor Jr.: 81.8%%

Patrick Taylor didn’t have much of a chance to impress last week, making it even more likely that the feature role would be Guerendo’s if he is fit enough for it.

Keep tabs. I’m benching Guerendo right now and pivoting should things flip.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (at SF)

Dan Campbell made it clear that the team trusts Jahmyr Gibbs to handle the David Montgomery role last week, even after a few failures on the doorstep. When all was said and done, Detroit’s bell cow was trusted with 27 touches. I think we might see more of that over the next 1.5 months as this team looks to get to New Orleans.

Gibbs now has six top-10 finishes this season and will be a first-round pick next season. He could prove to be the piece that is most common on championship rosters this season – make sure to check back this offseason as we will work hard to position you to get “the next” version of him.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | DEN (at CIN)

For my money, Jaleel McLaughlin is the best back on this roster.

2024: Jaleel McLaughlin vs. Javonte Williams

PPR Production Relative to Expectations: McLaughlin (-6.8%), Williams (-19.1%)
Percentage Of Carries Gaining 5+ Yards: McLaughlin (41.4%), Williams (30.6%)
PFN Elusive Score (higher is better): McLaughlin (37.9%), Williams (23.9%)

We can debate whether you agree or not with that, but it doesn’t matter. Playing anyone from this backfield is nothing more than a blind leap of faith.

McLaughlin sat out last week with a quad injury, and introducing health concerns isn’t exactly selling me on the idea of going this direction.

2025 — the year of the Denver running attack. Hopefully. Maybe. Probably not.

James Conner, RB | ARI (at LAR)

James Conner has consecutive games with a 40+ yard carry – he had one such run in his career with the Cardinals prior (794 rush attempts). That has fueled the veteran back being fantasy’s RB1 over the past three weeks (6.5 PPR points ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs).

I think most of us would have given better odds to Conner losing his role by December than pacing the position in scoring, but he looks great and maybe we shouldn’t be surprised

James Conner, Lord Of The (Fantasy) Rings

• Week 16, 2024 at Panthers: 26.6 FP (RB6)
• Week 17, 2023 at Eagles: 26.3 FP (RB4)
• Week 16, 2023 at Bears: 22.2 FP (RB4)
• Week 17, 2022 at Falcons: 14.0 FP (RB15)
• Week 16, 2022 vs. Buccaneers: 25.0 FP (RB4)

He’s the first RB aged 29 or older with 100 rush yards, a touchdown, and 25 receiving yards in consecutive games since Latavius Murray (2019) – he joined this list in the first half last week against the Panthers.

I could keep piling up the stats, but I think you get the picture. You’re playing Conner (21-122-1 against the Rams in Week 2) and loving the value he is providing you with at the perfect time.

James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. NYJ)

James Cook has 42 red-zone touches this season compared to 35 last year — he’s scored 16 touchdowns this season compared to six last year. There’s a combination of good fortune and strong development at play in Cook’s breakout season, and that’s just fine.

Buffalo’s lead back has nine top-12 finishes this season and he very well could add to that total this week against the Jets team that the Bills had no trouble running the ball against in Week 6.

Cook was inactive for that game, but this backfield ran 24 times for 131 yards, with 13 of those carries picking up at least five yards.

This is a deep backfield and that could be an issue should the Chiefs lock up the top seed. If you’re playing Cook and Kansas City clinches, I wouldn’t automatically pivot, but I would tune in to the beat reporters a little more.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (at CIN)

If you’re to play a Denver RB with any level of confidence in the year 2024, I think I have a pretty good idea of how your season has gone. Thank you for sticking with us as you head into what is almost certainly a meaningless week for your team.

Week 16 Bronco RB Production

Javonte Williams: 50.8% snaps, 12.3 fantasy points, 22 routes run
Audric Estimé: 20.6% snaps, 10.8 fantasy points, 4 routes run
Michael Burton: 15.9% snaps, 10.9 fantasy points, 6 routes run
Jaleel McLaughlin: DNP (quad)

Yes, any of those point totals would have worked based on expectations, but c’mon, you’re better than that. You’ve been rocking with PFN this entire season, so you’re a savvy manager who values stability over single scores, projectability over production, and roles over randomness.

This cluttered backfield racked up 37.3 PPR points against the Chargers in Week 16, and that allowed everyone to produce with McLaughlin sidelined. Again, that’s a story of the past, not of the future.

This season, under 12% of team games see 35+ running back points scored, making the output we saw last week an outlier. Toss in the fact that this offense has no pre-determined hierarchy, and there’s simply no way to go to this backfield this week; I don’t care how badly you want exposure to this Bengals defense.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (vs. KC)

Jaylen Warren caught all five of his targets last week and was featured in a game where Pittsburgh was trailing, something that should give you comfort given the opponent this week.

Of course, a game played on short rest as part of a brutal scheduling run can go a variety of ways. My instinct is to want to bet on the passing game more than the running game, and that brings into the equation the potential for Warren to repeat what he did against the Ravens in Week 16.

I’ve got him penciled in for seven carries and four targets. I don’t think that’s enough to result in an explosion, but a double-digit-PPR day is certainly well within the range of outcomes.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (at CLE)

It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June — he’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.

Jerome Ford, CLE (vs. MIA)

Jerome Ford has seven games with 10+ touches this season and has produced 7.7% over expectation in the process. He has plenty of boom/bust in his profile but the numbers don’t lie – when he sees his role expand, he pays off.

D’Onta Foreman was handed Cleveland’s first two doorstep carries last week, but with a failure and a fumble, we can probably eliminate that from our worries this week. Dorian Thompson-Robinson isn’t going to have this offense in scoring position too often, but his conservative approach does favor a player like Ford.

It’s not crazy to pencil in 16-20 touches in this game, and given the ability to win in the passing game, I’m playing Ford as a RB2 and will have DFS exposure in a game that I expect to be higher scoring than sportsbooks do.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (vs. BAL)

Joe Mixon disappointed last week in Arrowhead and now has three iffy outings over his past four. The lack of involvement in the passing game in Week 16’s loss was the culprit (one catch), as he had proven capable of pulling the PPR day out of the fire with 4-6 targets.

• Week 15 vs Dolphins: 12 carries for 23 yards, five catches for 33 yards
• Week 12 vs. Titans: 14 carries for 22 yards, five catches for 23 yards

The struggles in the run game could continue with the third-best run defense (success rate) coming to town, but I feel fine in projecting enough usage in the passing game to rank Mixon as an adequate RB2 this week.

It’ll be interesting to see how this offense functions sans Tank Dell, but my instinct is that we see plenty of vertical shots to Nico Collins and creative ways to get Mixon looks in space. You’re playing Houston’s unchallenged bell cow across the board.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (at NYG)

My goodness.

Jonathan Taylor ripped off a pair of long runs on Sunday against the Titans, finishing with 218 yards and three scores. A lesser person would highlight that he had zero targets and that he now has just three catches over his past five games, but let’s not let that fact get in the way of a dominant Week 16.

Taylor has now rushed for over 95 yards in three straight games and gets the benefit of operating as a favorite this week. The passing game caps his projectable ceiling, but not nearly enough to suggest that he’s the least bit questionable this week.

Anthony Richardson can hand the ball off, and as long as that continues to be the case, you’re playing JT with all sorts of confidence in any situation in which the Colts are expected to win.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (at MIN)

Jacobs has 108 touches in the first quarter this season, the third-most through 16 weeks of a season over the past decade (Adrian Peterson had 112 in 2015, and so did David Johnson in 2016). That’s a fancy way of saying that the Packers were fully committed to him when they swapped out Aaron Jones for him this summer and are even more committed now.

Green Bay’s RB1 has run for a score in six straight games while hauling in four balls in three of his past four — this role isn’t far from elite status. He was scripted out of the first meeting with the Vikings (nine carries for 51 yards before the Packers were forced into comeback mode and threw 54 passes), something I don’t think happens this time around.

Jordan Love is a good QB, but it’s Jacobs’ production that makes this team a tough out. Look for Jacobs to continue producing high-end numbers at the position – you’re in a good spot if you’re starting him weekly!

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (at HOU)

Justice Hill enters Week 17 dealing with concussion protocol and a role that hasn’t seen him reach 10 touches since September. The best teams in the NFL have pieces that mean much more to them than to us – Hill epitomizes that.

In 2024, Hill’s role simply isn’t enough to be rostered in most situations.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (at PIT)

Kareem Hunt was able to convert a two-yard carry into a touchdown last week and continues to work in a complementary role next to Isiah Pacheco. Consider me pessimistic that he holds that role through the postseason, but for now, this is a full-blown committee situation in a brutal matchup.

Hunt has picked up a role that pencils him in for 9-12 touches weekly — he’s Tyler Allgeier but in a more steady offense. I’m looking for other players, but if you’re low on options, I’d rather go in this direction than a receiver in the Keon Coleman tier.

Kendre Miller, RB | NO (vs. LV)

I think we can pretty safely rule out the Saints as a team at this point. They were unable to field a competitive team on Monday night and that resulted in Kendre Miller being fortunate to get to his 31 yards of production.

He’s the lead back in this offense and figures to hold that label for the rest of the season, but I’d rather Flex any receiver with any semblance of upside than chase my tail with this offense.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (at CHI)

Week 17 Status: OUT

All three of Walker’s career games with at least seven receptions have come this season (Weeks 5, 6, and 16). I’ve enjoyed the flashes of versatility from him this year, though I can’t help but notice that much of it is game-script dependent (Seattle has lost nine of 10 games in Walker’s career when he sees at least five targets)

The team showed no hesitation in labeling him as their featured back in his return to action last week (16-3 touch advantage over Zach Charbonnet), but because we can’t have nice things, he’s once again on the injury report and won’t play.

This is an annoying situation and one you’ll have to watch for next season. It’s going to be interesting to see how it unfolds.

Kimani Vidal, RB | LAC (at NE)

After seeing north of 50% of the snaps in consecutive games, Kimani Vidal saw his rate trend back to his season average on Thursday night (32.8%, season: 31.8%). That makes him a name to keep in mind for next season, more than one who should be kicking around rosters in the late stages of this season.

Gus Edwards is getting the valuable work, and this offense isn’t in position to sustain multiple running backs on any sort of consistent basis. If you’re asking for my way-too-early 2025 first run at rankings, Vidal would check in as my most valuable member of this backfield, but we are a long way away from acting on that – there’s not enough in this profile to justify any level of optimism for Week 17.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (vs. ARI)

Kyren Williams has a league-high 15 games with 20+ carries since the beginning of last season, a run that includes each of his past three contests (81 carries). That volume is a pretty safe bet against a defense that has been taking on water since its Week 11 bye and just gave up 152 yards and two scores on 25 carries to Chuba Hubbard.

The Rams didn’t have a 10-yard carry in their first meeting with the Cardinals and Williams turned his 12 attempts into just 25 yards, but these are two different teams now. Even in a spot where he wasn’t effective, Williams ran for a touchdown and finished with 6.7 points in the passing game.

The efficiency concerns and limited target earning of late are things we can tackle in the offseason — you’re playing Williams this week as a top-12 back and feeling just fine about it.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (vs. KC)

Najee Harris is having a solid season. He already has a career high 48 red-zone touches, and with 10.5% of his carries picking up at least 10 yards, he’s tracking for his best season in that regard as well.

That said, we seem to have hit a bit of a wall. He’s failed to reach 10 routes in every game since the George Pickens injury (one catch across those three games) and doesn’t have a run gaining more than 20 yards since the beginning of November.

Jaylen Warren got 12 carries and caught all five of his targets in Baltimore, giving us a glimpse of some juice that Harris has lacked recently. This profiles as a committee situation where I still project Harris to lead the duo in touches but with the fantasy scoring to be roughly identical.

The Chiefs are the 10th-best run defense in terms of success rate and third-best at limiting yardage after contact. We’ve seen Harris get 16-18 carries four times since the beginning of November, and that’s where I have him settling in this game. In those contests, he averaged 58 rushing yards — so this is really a situation of how lucky do you feel regarding the end zone.

I’m not in a hurry to go that direction for a home underdog with a sub-45-point total. I have Harris ranked right in the middle of the Jaguars duo as a part of an extended tier of RBs I’d rather not play but probably have to given the circumstances.

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (vs. MIA)

Nick Chubb broke his foot in Week 15, bringing to a close what has been a lost season for anyone who rolled the dice on him off of last season’s knee injury (3.3 yards per carry).

The team doesn’t expect this injury to require surgery, and that’s good news, but we are firmly in a spot where we will need to see more than him squatting a small village to reinvest this summer with the injuries piling up on a soon-to-be 29-year-old body that has north of 1,500 NFL touches. Reports have come out of Cleveland that it’s “ hard to say what his future in Cleveland might be” and that makes it difficult to project anything close to confidence in a meaningful role for 2025.

I’m rooting for him as I’m sure most are – but doing so from a distance.

Patrick Taylor Jr., RB | SF (vs. DET)

Patrick Taylor Jr. took over for Isaac Guerendo last week in Miami and was, you guessed it, a fully featured back.

Well, sort of. He got every running back carry for San Francisco, but that only amounted to eight carries and a 44.4% share of San Francisco’s total number of attempts.

I think we can pretty safely back away from this backfield and feel good about it. The 49ers don’t have anything left to play for and we don’t have much in the way of clarity on Guerendo’s hamstring, making this an impossible situation to project with confidence as they prepare to face the second-best run defense, by success rate, in the league.

The starting 49ers RB will be a low-end Flex option for me, no matter who it is. I don’t think this team has much success in this spot. If they do, I expect it to come in exotic packages that involve Deebo Samuel Sr. in space or Brock Purdy on the move, neither of which helps this running game in a major way.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (vs. CAR)

It would appear that the time is finally here. The Buccaneers have succumbed to Fantasy Football Twitter and finally optimized their backfield.

OK, so that’s probably not an accurate portrayal of what went on here, but if last week is an indicator of things to come, we are finally getting what we want out of the running game in Tampa Bay.

In the disappointing loss to the Cowboys, Bucky Irving out-carried Rachaad White 16-3, while White caught seven of the eight passes thrown his way. We made it!

White didn’t do much against the Panthers in Week 13 until he doubled his rushing total with a long rush in overtime to set up the game-winning field goal. His ranking fully hinges on how you think this game plays out.

I believe that the Bucs roll, and if that is the case, White managers are going to be swimming upstream. I’ve got Irving ranked as a strong RB2 while White is more of a middling Flex option, understanding that I’m projecting a more grounded attack for the Bucs in the second half.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (at CLE)

When this game kicks off, we will be more than two months removed from Raheem Mostert’s last touchdown; not a sentence I thought I’d type following a 21-score 2023 campaign, but here we are.

There is no reason to look Mostert’s way this week, and his story should serve as a good reminder that every season is its own entity. Production from the past is certainly something to consider, but overweighing it will land you a great 2024 team and out of the 2025 playoff picture.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. NYJ)

Ray Davis has failed to reach 30 yards from scrimmage in five of his past six games, and with Ty Johnson playing ahead of him on passing downs more recently his status as a one-for-one James Cook replacement is far from certain.

He’s a change-of-pace back, but if this offense is going to ask Josh Allen to wear the cape, there’s really no reason to roster any secondary back in Buffalo as they attempt to chase the conference’s top seed.

I think you can safely forget Davis’ name for the remainder of 2024, but I’d caution against doing so for 2025.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (vs. LAC)

On his 238 touches this season, Rhamondre Stevenson has as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns (seven) and as many fumbles lost as touches gaining 30+ yards (three). Without ball security in the NFL, there’s not much job security, and that might be a decision the Patriots make in 2025 as they look to build out a Drake Maye-centric offense.

Stevenson has finished each of his past three games in the RB20-30 bucket. While I have him ranked closer to the back end of that than the front, I think that’s about right. The role in the passing game isn’t what it once was, but with a 13+ yard reception in three straight and four games this season with at least four grabs, there’s enough in this profile to justify a Flex ranking, even if it’s not the most comfortable click to make.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (at PHI)

All of the Rico Dowdle momentum (three straight 100-yard games) came to a screeching half on Sunday night against the Buccaneers, as his 13 carries picked up just 23 yards. He did, however, manage to catch multiple passes for the eighth time in 10 games to give his managers a little something. Even so, it was a big let down, and it’s hard to project a major bounce back against the best yards-per-play defense in the sport.

The limited efficiency is one thing, but getting vultured by Ezekiel Elliott is another. Any lead back on a below-average offense needs to control the few scoring chances that his team generates – we didn’t see that last week.

I’m hanging tough in there and have Dowdle as a reasonable Flex option. The versatility is something that I’m banking on – either they ride Dowdle in a major way and keep this thing close, or they are forced to pass more often than they’d like. He turned 15 touches into 56 yards during the Week 10 loss to these Eagles, production that I think makes for a pretty good starting point.

He’s far from “safe,” but I do value his role over anything going on in Tennessee, Jacksonville, or even Kansas City at this point.

Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (vs. SEA)

Roschon Johnson returned last week from a concussion and got one carry. The potential to vulture touchdowns is still in his profile, but there are at least a dozen options on your waiver wire that offer a better ceiling/floor combination.

Johnson’s impact in fantasy matchups is his potential drain on the value of D’Andre Swift. By himself, he offers no real value and shouldn’t be rostered anywhere at this point in the proceedings.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (vs. DAL)

The Giants, as a team, have 1,603 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 369 carries – Saquon Barkley has turned his 314 carries into 1,838 yards and 13 scores this season.

Barkley is nothing short of special, and while we didn’t need 109 rushing yards with two scores in the first quarter last week to remind us of that, it never hurts to get statistical proof when leagues are being decided.

If you’re scrolling through the All-Pro’s box scores and come across the less-than-ideal numbers he produced in the first matchup with Dallas, don’t worry about it. Philadelphia controlled that game and ran the ball effectively (187 yards), it just didn’t need Barkley to do the heavy lifting (36.8% carry share).

With the Eagles still holding out hope for the NFC’s top seed, I’d expect a heavy dose of their RB1 early in this game to remove all doubt from the outcome. He’s a top-five play this week and in the 1.01 conversation for redraft leagues next season.

Sincere McCormick, RB | LV (at NO)

I’m generally skeptical about players self-reporting news, but Sincere McCormick’s posting on Instagram that he’ll “be back next season” following Week 15 seemed pretty straight forward. The team paid off his diagnosis by placing him on IR ahead of Week 16, thus ending his season.

The 24-year-old undrafted back out of UTSA was thrust into duty for a floundering offense for a few weeks and managed to pick up 4.9 yards per carry. He had a 15+ yard touch in all four games in which he touched the football and is a name to keep in the back of your head for next season.

It’s difficult to know what this backfield will look like in eight months and if this offense as a whole will be any better, but I was encouraged by the production we got in a tiny sample from McCormick.

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (vs. TEN)

Keep reading if you want the snap shares for his backfield, but spoiler alert, there’s not much to glean from that data. Heck, I was more confused after I tracked down the numbers than I was prior.

That said, Tank Bigsby was the only Jaguars running back to get a snap in the red zone last week, and if I’m forced into playing an RB in this backfield, it’s a decision I am 100% making based on chasing a touchdown.

This season, the Titans own the fifth-worst red zone defense in the league, allowing a touchdown on 64.7% of drives that cross their 20-yard line. There’s no guarantee that even if you pick the right Jacksonville back that you’re rewarded with fantasy points, and that has me trending away from this situation if at all possible.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at JAX)

Game flow was a mess last week after the Titans allowed the Colts to score 24 points in the second quarter, so I’m not exactly ready to say that this is a split backfield.

First Quarter, Week 16

• Tony Pollard: 73.3% of snaps, 4.2 points, five routes
• Tyjae Spears: 26.7% of snaps, 0.1 points, two routes

The Jaguars are the league’s worst yards-per-play defense, and that opens up the door for Pollard to find the form he had prior to the two recent duds. I don’t think it’s overly likely that Pollard repeats the 23 touches he got in the first meeting with Jacksonville, but another close game that allows for enough usage to land him as a viable RB2 is very much a reasonable expectation.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (vs. TEN)

I’m a man of data. I approach life with the idea that with increased information comes increased confidence.

I’ve been in this industry for over a decade and this Jacksonville backfield has me questioning everything.

Week 9:

Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps

Week 10:

Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps

Week 13:

Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps

Week 14:

Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps

Week 15:

Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps

Week 16:

Etienne: 50.8% of snaps
Bigsby: 29.5% of snaps

That snap share would seem to point one way lately, but then you look at the box score and see that, on three more carries, Bigsby ran for 28 more yards than Etienne.

I’ve made a call. Probably four weeks too late, but I’ve made a call. This is one of those things I just will not understand. Like time zones, silent letters, and society’s passion for scary movies.

I’m passing on both members of this backfield and not looking forward to ranking them for next season.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (at LAR)

Trey Benson was a logical pick-and-stash option all season long, but James Conner has stayed as healthy as ever, and that has left the rookie on the bench.

Benson isn’t close to stand-alone value (no more than five carries in a game over the past month) and doesn’t need to be held if you need value out of every player. He sat out last week with an ankle injury and I’m more than willing to move on from any player like this at less than full strength.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (at JAX)

Tyjae Spears has set a season-high in snap share in consecutive weeks (55.4% in Week 15 against the Bengals and 59.6% on Sunday in Indianapolis), clearing 21 PPR points (and 15 expected) in both of those contests.

Predictive?

I’d be careful. Both of those games saw north of 50 points scored and, as of this writing, you’d get +280 odds to see this game do that. Without such a positive game-script environment, I have my doubts that a Titans committee can give fantasy managers usable production, even against a soft defense.

Spears isn’t out of the question if you’re lacking an option; he’s sitting at RB30 in my rankings, but if it came down to him or a Darnell Mooney type, I’d side with the pass catcher.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (at WAS)

Tyler Allgeier has at least nine touches in four straight games, and that makes for a reasonable projection this week if you’re in true desperation mode but nothing more. I’d play him over a Keon Coleman or David Moore type in a Flex decision due to the safety of his touch count, but I’m hoping your playoff matchup doesn’t come to that.

Allgeier has just three scores on his 2024 ledger (136 touches), and with Bijan Robinson at full strength, there’s no real reason to think that an increase in dangerous touches is coming for Atlanta’s RB2.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (vs. IND)

The math just isn’t in Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s favor. More accurately put, the math isn’t in favor of any Giant not named Malik Nabers.

I’m comfortable with labeling Tracy as the lead back in this offense, but with the game script so routinely an issue, he’s made it past 10 carries just once over his past five games.

The versatility of the rookie was on full display last week with a pretty toe-tap touchdown catch with Drew Lock on the move, and that upside is allowing him to keep his head above water for fantasy managers.

With 18 targets over his past three games and a 10+ yard reception in four of his last five, Tracy is at the back end of my Flex ranks for this week. The Colts are the fourth-worst third-down defense in the league, giving the Giants a fighting chance at keeping their offense on the field and thus getting Tracy the 15 touches he needs for us to feel good about him.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (at CHI)

Week 17 Status: PLAYING

Easy come, easy go. With Kenneth Walker III back in the mix, Charbonnet was an afterthought in Sunday’s loss to the Vikings, and that’s being awfully kind.

There were 105 players active for that game, and all of them had more rushing yards (-1) than Seattle’s RB2, who turned 34 carries into 216 yards and four scores over the three weeks prior.

Walker is again battling an ankle injury and has been ruled out for Thursday’s game. Walker’s checkered health history (multiple missed games in all three of his NFL seasons) is exactly why Charbonnet is always going to be a sought-after commodity in the late rounds.

Yet, there are no signs of the Seahawks wanting to make this a committee.

One starting running back for Seattle will be active in fantasy leagues this week — it’s that easy. If Walker were playing, Charbonnet wouldn’t deserve a sniff. But since he’s not, you’re likely plugging him in.

I enter this week with Charbonnet ranked as the top running back in this game.

Week 17 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (at TB)

Adam Thielen has caught 5+ passes in all four games this month and has scored in three of his past six, but he has just two games this season with 60+ receiving yards. The rate numbers look good across the board, and this matchup is inviting. However, can you really trust a Bryce Young weapon with your championship on the line?

Thielen posted an 8-99-1 line in the Week 13 meeting and none of it was fluky. Young was looking his way and hit him on a 25-yard pass to send the game into overtime. The game itself was encouraging, and it tracks with season-long trends. The Bucs allow the second-most yards per slot pass attempt in the league this season.

The downside of this offense as a whole stops me from elevating Thielen into my top 30 at the position, but he’s safely tucked inside the top 40 and can be flexed with more confidence in leagues that weigh receptions/yards heavier than touchdowns.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (vs. DAL)

“If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right.”

Jerry Seinfeld, one of the great philosophers of our time, uttered that line to George Costanza years ago. I can’t help but think it applies here. The Eagles’ instinct last season was to come out of the gates firing. Establish themselves as a power house, and heavily feature A.J. Brown in their attempt to overwhelm you with production.

It worked until it didn’t.

If the opposite then has to be right (assuming that the Eagles are George Costanza, the Everyman who has a hard time getting out of his own way), how does ending the season like that sound?

Weeks 3-7, 2023:

• • • • • 29.9% on-field target share
        • Four end-zone targets
        • 25.8 PPR PPG

Weeks 15-16, 2024:

• • • • • 34.7% on-field target share
        • Four end-zone targets
        • 24.4 PPR PPG

Included in both of those sample sizes is a game with at least 13 targets and a touchdown against the Commanders. The stars align further for the week following this data set, as Brown faced a defense that allowed over 7.5 yards per pass and a touchdown on 5% of all throws and gets the pleasure of another such spot this weekend.

In said spot last season, Brown casually dropped 33 PPR points and carried your squad. That was a Week 8 game — the stakes are higher now with Philadelphia a win away from locking up the NFC East. I’m that much more confident in Philly’s go-to option.

Of course, the math will be reworked should Jalen Hurts sit out, but there won’t be an actionable change for season-long managers, just less bravado from your humble narrator.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (at NYG)

A Week 15 concussion left Alec Pierce in protocol for too long to make Week 16 a possibility. You read the plus matchup metrics in the Anthony Richardson profile, and while that could result in him pulling “a Pierce,” fantasy managers are best to look elsewhere in their title games.

“Pulling a Pierce” (slang): The act of catching no more than three passes, but totaling at least 125 yards and a touchdown in the process.

Used in a sentence: Twice in the first month of this season did Alec Pierce ‘pull a Pierce,’ giving him as many such performances in 28 days that all other players have since the start of the 2020 season.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (vs. NYJ)

Note to future self: when a very good team makes a trade deadline acquisition, proceed with caution.

The Diontae Johnson situation in Baltimore has been an unmitigated disaster. While DeAndre Hopkins going to Kansas City has helped more than Mike Williams in Pittsburgh, I overestimated the impact they’d have across the board.

I think the process of the analysis (and the acquisitions for that matter) was sound. These players either fit a need or a style of play and have proven capable of producing at this level. But I got over my skis — I apologize.

The coverboy for this is Amari Cooper, a receiver that was theoretically brought in to take this Bills offense to the next level, an answer for them moving on from Stefon Diggs this offseason. While it’s true that this offense has looked as good as any since the deal, it has just about as much to do with me as it does Cooper.

Not much.

A wrist injury resulted in some missed time, but in his seven games with the team, he’s reached 8.5 expected PPR points just once. I’d blame it on a learning curve if I could, but the Bills simply aren’t interested in him being featured. His 55.2% snap share on Sunday was his highest since joining the franchise.

Even when he is on the field, the impact is minimal. We all remember the viral clip of Keon Coleman telling him, while on the line of scrimmage, where to run his route and it resulted in a score in his debut. That was a fun clip, but it’s now a sad reminder of the last time Cooper saw a look in the end zone.

This offense has elevated without his help (one game with 70 air yards), and as they look to round into postseason form, why would we expect that to change in a significant way this week?

It’s possible that Buffalo (and all of these teams with talented receivers doing very little) will unleash a Cooper package in January and make a run through the conference. I’m not ruling it out, as everything I said in a positive light post-trade remains true. That could be huge for a #BillsMafia fan base that is starving for a winner, but in the scope of winning 2024 fantasy titles, I’d be surprised if Cooper was a factor at all.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (at SF)

Wait, you’re telling me that Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 75% of his targets and found the end zone last week? That never happens …

Games with at least a 75% catch rate and a TD reception, 2024:

• • • • • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 10
        • Mark Andrews: 7
        • Ja’Marr Chase and George Kittle: 6

No player has married scoring equity with efficiency quite like St. Brown this season. When you zoom out, it’s even more impressive. Do you want the full list of instances, since 2000, in which a player had more than 10 games like this through 16 weeks in a season?

• • • • • Randy Moss, 2007

That’s it, and that’s all. St. Brown’s name deserves to be thrown into the 1.01 discussion. He’s the first Lion to have multiple 100-1,000-10 seasons on his résumé, and I’m confident that he will add a third such year in 2025.

Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (at PHI)

Brandin Cooks’ playing time is inching up, but he’s simply going to run out of time. We saw signs of decline last season; even if you think there is gas left in the tank, this Cooper Rush-led offense doesn’t have much of a path to accessing that.

In his eight appearances this season, Cooks is averaging just 0.80 yards per route. He’s well off of fantasy radars in all formats at this point and might have a hard time finding a suitor when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after this season wraps.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (vs. TEN)

Brian Thomas Jr. is one of three receivers since 2000 to post 1,000 yards and nine touchdown catches through 16 weeks of his rookie season — and they all came from LSU (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 and Ja’Marr Chase in 2021).

Whose career trajectory will BTJ’s follow?

I’m a hopeless optimist, so I want to lean toward Chase. We can have that talk after this season ends. When it comes to Week 17, I’m beyond nervous. Mac Jones hadn’t completed a pass over 20 air yards this season prior to last week (62-yard TD to Thomas), and now he faces the fifth-best YPA defense on deep passes. Thomas has been elite, I get it. Heck, I’ll give you the numbers:

WRs in the 24 PPR PPG Club since Week 13:

• • • • • Ja’Marr Chase: 26.6 PPG
        • Davante Adams: 26.5 PPG
        • Justin Jefferson: 26.5 PPG
        • Thomas: 24.0 PPG

But this could be a down spot where volume is an issue, and I’m nowhere near comfortable in assuming that the quality of targets in Jacksonville can offset a lack of quantity. I still have BTJ ranked as a starter, but he’s outside of my top 20 at the position for the first time in a while, and I won’t have any DFS exposure.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (at JAX)

Calvin Ridley is the third Titans receiver over the past 20 years to have seven receptions and three touchdowns gaining 30+ yards in a single season. The others? A.J. Brown (2019-20) and DeAndre Hopkins (2023).

That’s pretty good, and his 37.5% target share in the first edition of this matchup with his former employer is a nice feather to have. Of course, the fact that he had more catches in that game (seven) than Tennessee had points (six) is the elephant in the room fantasy managers are forced to deal with.

I’m more in than out on Ridley this week with the thought being that any quarterback who has managed to hang around the NFL for six seasons should be able to have his moments against a defense that not only ranks bottom-five in deep pass touchdown rate and yards per pass on those deep throws but also is the worst unit in the league when it comes to slowing receivers after the catch is made.

What the future holds for the Titans at the QB position remains to be seen, but if Ridley is under contract for the next three seasons, they will likely want to keep him happy heading into the offseason. He was able to salvage a three-catch game last week; if he continues to serve as a field stretcher, this is about as good as the spot gets.

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (vs. MIA)

The Browns are “hopeful” that Cedric Tillman can return from a concussion that has resulted in four missed games, but I can’t imagine a situation in which you’re rolling the dice on a player like this in an offense that went from recklessly aggressive to mind-numbingly conservative with their change under center.

The Tillman-coaster was a fun ride for three weeks (32 targets and three touchdowns), but his skill set, when fully healthy, aligns perfectly with Jameis Winston, not Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Could a 24-year-old with high-end athletic traits develop into something? Of course. Can he do it with Cleveland seemingly committed to Deshaun Watson? I’m not so sure – I don’t think he’ll be on my list of favorite late-round flyers for 2025.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (at PHI)

“My shoulder is outta whack, I’m not gonna even lie to you. … It’s not fun, but I love this game that much.”

I don’t know how to spin that forward. Should we take the low-hanging fruit and drop him down the ranks or should we go the contrarian route, using this mindset as the type of grind that we want in our starters?

I’ve downgraded him, yes, but that’s not enough to knock him out of fantasy lineups. A compromised version of him caught seven of eight targets on Sunday night against a desperate Bucs team and his 105-yard performance would have looked even better if he had scored instead of being tackled at the one-yard line.

CeeDee Lamb, the late-season show stealer:

• • • • • Week 16, 2024 vs. Buccaneers: 17.5 points (WR16)
        • Week 17, 2023 vs. Lions: 40.2 points (WR9)
        • Week 16, 2023 at Dolphins: 25.2 points (WR1)
        • Week 17, 2022 at Titans: 21 points (WR6)
        • Week 16, 2022 vs. Eagles: 34 points (WR1)

Everybody gets banged up throughout the four-month NFL season, and while I don’t doubt that Lamb’s situation is worse than most, I’m not using it as an excuse to bench him. The route count might slip, but his legs still work, and that helped him earn 34.5% of the targets in Week 10 against the Eagles, albeit in an underwhelming overall effort from Dallas.

Lamb is more of a fine WR2 than a standout WR1 — but this is one of the few instances where if I lose because I showed too much loyalty to a player, I’m fine with it.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (at MIN)

Christian Watson is always one play away from an injury (yeah, yeah, yeah, technically everyone is, but you understand what I’m getting at), and he’s again banged up with a vague lower-body injury.

The man runs 11 routes, finally sees a target on the 12th, and then leaves injured. The Packers’ offense takes on a different look when Watson is right, and that is something they are going to need if they want to make a playoff run. I’d be surprised if he plays a full complement of snaps this weekend, and even if he does, the Vikings own the third-highest deep ball interception rate and excel at taking away those long shots.

Jayden Reed is the only receiver I have interest in this week for the Packers, though the ancillary pieces can have some upside should Watson sit.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (vs. ARI)

The Jets are a top-10 defense in terms of pressure rate, and that was the driving factor behind fading Cooper Kupp in Week 16:

Kupp’s yards per route when his QB is pressured by season:

• • • • • 2021: 2.58 yards
        • 2022: 2.05
        • 2023: 1.80 (Nacua: 1.64)
        • 2024: 0.72 (Nacua: 3.00)

That worked out, and while I think that Kupp’s best days are behind him, the non-pressured numbers are plenty usable, and that’s the version we should get this week. For the season, the Cardinals rank 25th in pressure rate, and assuming that they are reading this, because why wouldn’t they, they may try to correct that by ramping up the aggression.

Doesn’t scare me.

Arizona ranks 27th in pressure rate when blitzing this season, leaving Matthew Stafford in a spot to pick apart this secondary for the better part of 60 minutes. None of my concerns around Kupp apply for this matchup, and I have him locked in as a top-20 asset, checking in ahead of budding stars like Malik Nabers and Garrett Wilson.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (at CIN)

Fantasy managers were left wanting a little bit more on Thursday night (10.0 PPR points, Courtland Sutton’s worst showing since being shut out in New Orleans (Week 7), but all things considered, was it that bad of an outcome?

Bo Nix completed 83.3% of passes when throwing to his WR1 last week (all other Broncos: 70.6%) and, for the sixth time in seven games, he produced a PPR point total over what was expected given his targets.

That fact isn’t going to help you last week, but it should help you go back to Sutton without much in the way of worries this week against a defense that is vulnerable across the board, but most so downfield (sixth-highest deep touchdown pass rate).

With Sutton already at a career-high in air yards (1,612), there’s no reason to hesitate in plugging him in this week as you chase glory.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (vs. IND)

Darius Slayton’s role behind Malik Nabers was always going to be thin, and the mess at the quarterback position removed all hope. In order for a player like Slayton to thrive, there would have to be hope for a singular play – good luck with that.

The Giants are a bottom-five offense when it comes to stretching the field in completion percentage, yards per completion, and touchdown rate. That’s not ideal, and with the second-best defense in terms of interception rate on those passes, there’s no reason to think that Slayton sees a single target with significant potential attached to it.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (at WAS)

In Michael Penix Jr.’s debut, Darnell Mooney’s rates were awfully close to the numbers he has put up this season as a whole. His target share was up a tick and his depth of target was down a little, but nothing that has me adjusting his ranking as a low-end WR3.

The Commanders are the second most vulnerable defense in terms of deep touchdown rate, so there’s a thread to pull if you really need to roll the dice. That said, we are talking about a player with three sub-30-yard games over his past five who hasn’t scored since Week 9.

I’d rather not play him if I have upside elsewhere. Josh Downs (at NYG) has a more stable skill set in a similarly plus matchup, while Adam Thielen (at TB) continues to get chances to produce usable weeks — I’d play both of them over Mooney in Week 17.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (at BUF)

Davante Adams has four straight games with 65+ receiving yards and a touchdown catch — only three receivers have had a longer such streak at age 30 or older (Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, and Muhsin Muhammad).

First of all, drink up if you bet against a Muhsin Muhammad mention in the year 2024. It took a while, but we got there. More importantly, let’s put some respect on this profile. The counting numbers look great over that run, and the closer you look, the better they get.

He has six end-zone targets across those four contests and has been targeted on 41.7% of his red-zone routes, a rate that is unheard of for a player at this stage in his career. The Bills are a lot of things, but an elite red-zone unit isn’t one of them (18th), and that gives Adams enough scoring equity to be started across the board, even if you think this is a lopsided affair.

In Week 6, Aaron Rodgers funneled half of his targets to his two top receivers, and both were top-five producers at the position for the week (Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson both cleared 100 yards and scored). I’m not forecasting production at quite that level, but both of his top threats should see plenty of looks in a favorable game script, and that’s more than enough for me.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (at PIT)

I like the fact that DeAndre Hopkins has caught nine of his 10 targets over the past two weeks, but I fear that the ceiling is getting lower each week. He played under half of Kansas City’s snaps in both of those games, a trend I don’t see changing as Hollywood Brown works his way into a regular role.

The Chiefs are obviously motivated to win games in January, not December. I still have Hopkins ranked over Brown but only by a few spots, and I’d rather take my chances on Jayden Reed (at MIN) or Marvin Harrison Jr. (at LAR), two receivers that have been sporadic but offer greater role upside in my opinion.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (vs. DET)

Deebo Samuel Sr. has produced 15% below PPR expectations this season, the lowest rate of his otherwise very efficient career. His points per target (1.57) also sits at a career low and his expected points per game are down 6.4% from a season ago.

There are no two ways about it — 2024 has been a tough season for anyone who drafted Samuel. That said, if you’ve patchworked things together up to this point, we are finally getting the usage that we thought we’d get from the jump.

Week 16’s loss in Miami was his first game with 5+ targets and 5+ rush attempts since Week 1, and it might just stick given the injuries on the offensive side of the ball for San Francisco. He’s run the ball 12 times over his past three games, up from one attempt (for minus one yard) in his previous three games.

Better late than never, but never late is better.

Samuel turns 29 in less than a month and has more wear and tear at this age than more traditional receivers. I’m Flexing him this week, but his 2025 value is a giant question mark given his trajectory, not to mention the status of Brandon Aiyuk.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (vs. ARI)

Matthew Stafford is the receiver elevator, but even his powers are limited. As Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua soak up all meaningful usage in offense, there is no meat left on the bone for the remaining Rams.

In Robinson’s case, literally no meat.

His 60 routes over the past three weeks have netted exactly zero receptions. This is just the latest example of a third pass catcher having an awfully difficult time sustaining any level of fantasy value. The Jets, Bears, Eagles, Buccaneers, and Seahawks are all other examples of this.

Be careful in assuming that such a role can thrive (I’m looking at you, Minnesota fans, who want Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson to all grade as must-starts).

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (vs. LAC)

The idea of DeMario Douglas one day being for Drake Maye what Khalil Shakir is for Josh Allen is something that appeals to me, but we are far from that “one day.” New England’s slot option has been held under 35 receiving yards in three straight games; that becomes even more worrisome when you see a 91.7% catch rate across those games.

If this is him at peak efficiency, what ceiling is there realistically to chase? It’s OK to be both encouraged by the future of the Maye-led offense and want no piece of it in the short term. That’s where I’m at.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (vs. DAL)

DeVonta Smith went from GOAT to goat in a hurry last week after he dropped a pass that would have likely kept the Eagles in a great spot to compete for the NFC’s one seed and eventually resulted in a soul-crushing loss to the Commanders.

That series of events hurt Philadelphia fans in a significant way, but the game as a whole was fine for forward-thinking fantasy managers. Smith has cleared a dozen expected PPR points in three straight games (he didn’t have one such performance in his previous six) and has 6+ catches or a touchdown in five of his past seven.

The interesting part of Smith’s profile is that what we perceived as his greatest skill has been removed from his role. Over his past four games, his aDOT sits at just 6.7 yards, essentially half of where it was in the previous three games (13.3).

With time, that’s resulted in an increase in efficiency (85% catch rate over the past two weeks, and that includes the bad drop last week that he catches at least 95% of the time) and could well be the norm for the remainder of the regular season as the Eagles try to figure out how to best maximize their weapons.

Smith was held to just two catches in the Week 10 meeting with the Cowboys, but I’m comfortable projecting him to double or triple that output given his new target diet. This season, the Cowboys are the worst team in the league in terms of completion percentage and yards per attempt on those short passes. Philadelphia fans aren’t usually ones to forgive and forget, but I think Smith can work his way back into the good graces with a big Week 17.

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (vs. SEA)

Ja’Marr Chase and Moore are the only two players with active streaks of 6+ games of 6+ catches. It goes without saying that not all volumes are created equal, but that’s not a bad list to be on, especially if you think we get the “good” Caleb Williams to round out 2024.

Moore has been a top-35 receiver in each of those six weeks but only has two top-25s on his résumé. The Seahawks own the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT this season — that means I think we see more of the same this week: low ceiling, high floor. He’s the type of player that top-seeded teams in fantasy playoffs love to play and underdogs don’t love to use.

That’s a good reminder to use rankings, especially this time of year, as a guide and not a Bible. Every situation has a unique context that impacts decision-making.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (at CHI)

That’s five straight games for DK Metcalf without a five-catch performance, and he’s in what might be the most inevitable spot that a receiver can be — the expectation bubble.

Is it possible that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the best receiver on this team? It is. That’s how I’ve been ranking it for a month, but defenses continue to focus on Metcalf, and that’s making it difficult to get him much volume (why would Seattle throw into traffic when they have a receiver with just as much talent in a more favorable spot?).

That said, I think you’re still playing Metcalf due to the downward trajectory of this Chicago defense. The Bears are allowing the third most passes per deep attempt, and while JSN has shown some downfield chops, there’s no question that Geno Smith is more likely to call Metcalf’s number in those spots.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (at MIN)

Dontayvion Wicks scored on Green Bay’s opening drive in their dominant win over New Orleans, his first trip to the end zone since Week 7. The snapping of the scoring drought was good to see, but it was his only action of the game, and he’s pretty clearly an afterthought in an offense with no shortage of options.

Wicks was a popular sleeper this preseason as a way to get cheap exposure to a strong offense — as it turns out, not all offenses, even the strong ones, consistently support multiple pass catchers.

Drake London, WR | ATL (at WAS)

Michael Penix Jr. fed his top target with five of his first 10 targets (three completions for 34 yards), and that made last week a win for those with Drake London on their roster from a process standpoint.

Would I have preferred a better final line than 5-59-0 against the overmatched Giants? Of course, but the idea that this team drew up London targets and that Penix executed was encouraging.

He had a two-yard score in his hands, and if he comes down with that pass, your impression of Week 16’s stat line changes in a significant way. I’m more optimistic this week in London than I was last week, and while the majority of that has to do with what Penix put on film in his first career game, it didn’t hurt to see A.J. Brown produce in a matchup across from Marshon Lattimore.

There’s risk in starting London, and that’s why he’s ranked as a mid-to-low WR2 for me this week, but I’m penciling in enough volume to make him playable in all formats.

Elijah Moore, WR | CLE (vs. MIA)

I was more in on Elijah Moore last week than most, and I can assure you that I will not be making that mistake in consecutive games. My thought process was that the short-yardage target in a low-octane offense could see enough high-percentage targets to return reasonable PPR value.

As it turns out, there are no “high-percentage targets” in this offense with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center. Moore has turned 11 targets into just 20 yards over the past two weeks and has found the end zone just twice in his past 24 games. There are many more paths to failure than success, and that’s not a math equation I’m comfortable backing.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (at BUF)

Garrett Wilson is a tough read these days. In Week 15, he was used as a field stretcher (16.5 aDOT) next to a productive Davante Adams, but last weekend, also alongside a strong Adams game, his average depth of target was a mere 6.9 yards.

I’m choosing to read that in multiple ways. Most importantly, I think it confirms the hierarchy of this receiver room — New York wants to get Adams going and will give Wilson the remaining routes, putting him in a less advantageous spot.

That’s the bad. The good is that they are confident that he can fill a variety of roles and that Aaron Rodgers has thrown the ball his way 33 times so far in December. It was a different offense back in Week 6, but Wilson was responsible for 34.8% of New York’s receptions, and that’s not a bad thing, even if Adams wasn’t on the roster.

I’ve got Wilson sitting just outside of my top 20 at the position, ranking in the Brian Thomas Jr. and DeVonta Smith tier.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (vs. KC)

George Pickens (Grade 2 hamstring strain) missed the first game of his career in Week 13, and his absence extended through last week.

The upside is no secret (six finishes as a WR2 or better), but we can’t let that distract you from three finishes outside of the top 55 receivers, a floor that is at an increased risk of impacting Week 15 if a compromised version of Pickens is trying to play.

Generally speaking, I love the way this Russell Wilson-led offense looks for Pickens. With the veteran calling the shots, Pittsburgh’s WR1 has produced 17.2% over expectations and has eight end-zone targets in six games.

The Chiefs are a tough matchup for anyone, though they’ve been a little more gettable of late. Prior to suffering the devastating knee injury last week, Tank Dell lit this secondary up for 21.8 PPR points, the third time a receiver hit 20 points against them this season – that’s a small number in the scope of the season, but all three have come since Week 12.

My greater concern as a Pickens managers is that Kansas City has largely been vulnerable to secondary options. On Saturday, it was Dell, not Nico Collins. Earlier this season, David Moore was Carolina’s most productive receiver in this matchup, while back in Week 11, Curtis Samuel was the top producer for Buffalo.

I think that Pickens gives it a go on Christmas. The division is a toss-up at this point, and while the short week here is a pain, he does get the benefit of a mini-bye ahead of Week 18’s finale against the Bengals. Assuming positive reporting, I’ll have him ranked as a high-end WR3 – one that can offer tremendous upside alongside the risk you’re taking with his bulky hamstring.

Hollywood Brown, WR | KC (at PIT)

Hollywood Brown made his season debut on Saturday and his usage was … interesting.

Kansas City’s WR usage, Week 16:

• Xavier Worthy: 78.6% snaps, 11 targets, and 23.1 expected points
• Justin Watson: 52.9% snaps, one target, and 1.7 expected points
• DeAndre Hopkins: 45.7% snaps, four targets, and 6.5 expected points
• JuJu Smith-Schuster: 38.6% snaps, one target, and 1.7 expected points
• Brown: 27.1% snaps, eight targets, and 13.4 expected points

He wasn’t on the field a ton, but eight looks on his 15 routes is the type of rate that hints at a role that can land him as a Flex asset this week if he’s extended even just a little. He was the first Chief over the weekend to haul in three passes. While he was held to just seven receiving yards in the second half, I’m happy to label Week 16 as a success.

Of course, Brown’s track record and a tough matchup introduce plenty of downside.

Brown’s production relative to PPR expectation by season:

• • • • • 2019 (Ravens): +19%
        • 2020 (Ravens): +6.2%
        • 2021 (Ravens): -9.2%
        • 2022 (Cardinals): -12.2%
        • 2023 (Cardinals): -21.9%

He’s far from a safe play, but he’s found money on your fantasy team at this point and I think he’s deserving of Flex consideration in the same vein as any of the receivers in Indianapolis/Carolina or the secondary pieces with the Chargers/Browns.

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (at NO)

There is next to no room for error for Jakobi Meyers. Early in the season, I was fine with betting on that profile because his aDOT was low enough to ensure some level of efficiency, even with below-average quarterback play, but that hasn’t been the case lately.

• • • • • Weeks 1-12: 8.9 aDOT
        • Weeks 13-16: 13.2 aDOT

We know that the quality of the target is always going to be low, so introducing the variance that comes with extending routes is something I’m not interested in when it comes to the Vegas passing game.

Meyers is a good player but not good enough for me to trust him with the fate of my team, even in a plus matchup.

Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (at TB)

Jalen Coker has played over 83% of the snaps in both of his games since returning to action, and his counting numbers look fine in those games but don’t forget about the 83-yard touchdown against Dallas in Week 15.

Without that outlier play, one that you can’t count on in any offense, let alone this version of the Panthers, Coker has turned 10 targets into 35 yards. There might be a world in which he becomes Carolina’s slot receiver of the future and Bryce Young’s star ascends.

Might be.

You don’t have to bet on that to end this season. It won’t cost you much to speculate on him this summer, and there will be roster builds where I go in that direction, but that’s a strategic thing that we can dive further into once this season is in the books.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (vs. CAR)

This is a safe space, right?

Is Jalen McMillan poised to be what we wanted Tank Dell to be?

That is, an explosive player that shows signs of promise as a rookie and parlays it into a weekly starter role in fantasy circles during Year 2?

McMillan has three straight games with at least four catches and a touchdown reception — over the past 20 years, only three rookies have topped that streak (Odell Beckham Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tank Dell). There was an 11.6-point swing that took place late in the game last week where a potential 46-yard TD was wrestled away from him, but the 5-57-1 stat line was still plenty productive, and it’s clear that he has Baker Mayfield’s trust.

The Bucs are in need of a big performance, and if the shallow Panthers elect to blanket Mike Evans, a career day from McMillan is certainly within the range of outcomes.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (at PHI)

Jalen Tolbert has scored in consecutive weeks and now has six on the season despite limited usage. His nose for the end zone might be a trait we circle back to in August, but in a Cooper Rush offense that involves a banged-up CeeDee Lamb, I have no interest in betting on this passing game in any capacity.

Dallas has been putting up some points in plus matchups lately, but this Eagles defense certainly isn’t one that I’m targeting, even after a disappointing Week 16 performance.

There are two Cowboys worth your while and Tolbert isn’t one of them.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (vs. DEN)

Ja’Marr Chase is seeking a seventh straight game with 18+ PPR points. Since 2013, only twice (Cooper Kupp in 2021 and Davante Adams in 2020) has a receiver had a longer such streak in a single season.

He’s already set the franchise record for receiving yards in a season, so why not challenge more all-time marks? The matchup with the Broncos isn’t optimal (eighth fewest yards allowed per deep pass), but we saw this Bengals juggernaut take on a stingy Chargers defense not long ago, and the Chase/Tee Higgins tandem turned 16 catches into 223 yards and three scores.

Matchups matter when making fringe lineup decisions, not at the top of the board. If you want to be different and fade Chase in the three-game Saturday DFS window, you can do it due to his cost, but you’re not making any moves in season-long formats, and that goes without saying.

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (at SF)

Jameson Williams is coming off his third top-10 finish of the season (Weeks 1, 11, and 16) and, more importantly, his sixth straight game with 10+ expected PPR points. That second number is the one that has my interest as we know that Williams is plenty capable of making the chunk plays and exceeding expectations, but the built-in value of his recent targets helps elevate his floor to a place where I’m comfortably Flexing him weekly.

Earlier in the season, Williams would have been an auto-fade for me in this spot. The 49ers are the second-best yards per deep pass attempt defense in the league, and I would have never thought of playing him in a spot like that. But now? Now I think there’s enough versatility in his profile to land him as a top-35 WR.

Jared Goff is as efficient as anyone in the league, and with designs a part of the plan for Williams, I’ll take my chances. The big-play potential is still very much there (just ask Chicago’s secondary), but with a single-digit aDOT in three of his past five, I think there’s more well-roundedness than this burner gets credit for.

Jauan Jennings, WR| SF (vs. DET)

The 49ers made Week 16 the George Kittle and Deebo Samuel Sr. show, something that I think has a decent chance to sustain this week, thus putting Jauan Jennings’s stock at serious risk.

Last weekend in Miami, he was able to earn just 16.2% of the targets and with a low per-target upside role; that sort of decline in usage is a red flag. The fact that a slow day at the office came in a game in which the 49ers were playing from behind also worries me as that is expected to be the case with the Lions coming to town.

I think you can get away with playing Jennings this week, understanding that Samuel is going to be moved all over the place and that Brock Purdy is likely to throw another 35-40 passes, but I’d caution against thinking that there is much in the way of upside in this profile.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (at CHI)

How impressive is this kid? He’s now scored or earned double-digit targets in six of his past seven and seems to uncover as fast as any second-year receiver that I can remember. Don’t take my word for it; check out his Year 2 profile through 16 games lined up with what CeeDee Lamb gave us:

Smith-Njigba (2024):

• 16.1 PPG, six touchdowns
• +10.6% production vs. expectation
• 1.89 points per route
• 1,208 air yards

Lamb (2021):

• 15.6 PPG, six touchdowns
• +10.5% production vs. expectation
• 1.85 points per route
• 1,246 air yards

There are going to be 2024 breakout candidates that get overhyped ahead of next season — I’m not sure that is possible here. Geno Smith isn’t, in my opinion, a quarterback you win big with, but for the sake of JSN’s fantasy managers, he’s plenty efficient and that’s good enough!

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (at MIN)

Jayden Reed is my pick and has been among the top talent in Green Bay’s receiver room.

Jayden Reed isn’t a full-time player.

Sadly, both of those things are true. He’s reached a 61% snap share just once in his past six games, and that helps explain why he’s reached double digits in the expected PPR points column just twice since the middle of October.

Reed did pick apart Minnesota back in Week 4 to the tune of seven catches for 139 yards and a touchdown on eight looks, something that I’m comfortable reading into. The Vikings could adjust, but their league-leading blitz rate does leave them susceptible to well-executed quick-timing routes, something that Reed has proven plenty capable of (8.1 aDOT, 38.1 air yards per game).

I was hopeful he’d be a blind start at this point, but he’s not. He’s Adam Thielen but with better quarterback play and more target competition. I have both of those receivers ranked in the mid-30s as playable pieces but far from lineup locks.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (at CLE)

Jaylen Waddle seems to get dinged up consistently, and an ailing knee held him out of Week 16’s win. Malik Washington stepped into his role and gave Miami all of 28 yards, so I don’t think you’re at any risk of losing looks should he return to action.

This is a read-and-react situation for me. There’s a decent chance the Dolphins are eliminated from playoff contention by kickoff, and that would obviously impact the appeal of Waddle should he get in some work in practice this week.

That said, IF he clears all medical hurdles and IF Miami remains alive in the playoff rate, I’ll be labeling Waddle as a top-35 receiver. He’s had plenty of bumps in his road this season, but in a matchup against a defense that allows the fourth-most YAC to the position and ranks dead last in both yards per attempt and per completion to the slot this season, there’s a path to viable PPR production.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (vs. MIA)

Situations like this allow you to learn plenty about yourself as a fantasy manager.

Just how much risk are you willing to take on with all of the chips in the middle of the table?

My answer: not much. Jerry Jeudy had a nice run with Jameis Winston under center, but that’s kind of like saying that my exercise plan went great in the summer when it was nice out — it doesn’t matter right now.

This Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led offense doesn’t come preloaded with anything close to the upside of the Winston-led version but it carries all of the same downside. Jeudy managed just 20 yards last weekend in Cincinnati against one of the most forgiving secondaries in the league. Why would we expect him to flip the script now?

The Dolphins can be had down the field, though that doesn’t project to be a major issue against this now ultra-conservative offense. What Miami can do is get off the field on third downs (third-best in the league this season), and with Cleveland going 3-of-12 in those spots last week, forgive me if I think that the road team has every chance to control this game.

The Browns are going to struggle against anyone, and if their offense can’t stay on the field, I’m told that’s bad for business.

Jeudy resides in the Marvin Harrison Jr./Aam Thielen tier this week of WR1s for his NFL team that I’d rather not roll with for my fantasy team if possible.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (vs. GB)

Over the past two weeks, none of Jordan Addison’s 12 catches have gained 20 yards (previously in his career: one of every 4.2 receptions picked up 20 yards).

Sheesh, Kyle, talk about nitpicking.

It should be viewed as a badge of honor when I do something like that, it means that a player has produced at such a level that they deserve that sort of attention. Over his past six games, Addison is averaging 2.4 yards per route and producing 33.2% over fantasy expectations — he’s been nothing short of phenomenal, and that means he can be Flexed with confidence this week.

In the Week 4 meeting with the Packers, he scored twice: once on a 29-yard pass in the first quarter and the other on a nice second-quarter run design. That was back in September, and the Vikings were scheming ways to get him involved. Given the recent run, they are only more motivated to feature him, and with the Packers traveling on a short week, I think you can feel just fine in riding this heater for another week.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (at NYG)

There is nothing “safe” that comes with investing in the Colts’ passing game, but Josh Downs has looked the part of their WR1, and I’m operating under that assumption this week in ranking him as a top-30 option at the position.

He’s passed Michael Pittman Jr. as the slot receiver in this offense, a spot on the field where the Giants are vulnerable:

• • • • • 28th in completion percentage
        • 31st in interception rate
        • 31st in passer rating

The slot role doesn’t always come with per-target upside, and that’s even more true when the QB leading the offense is more throwing a bounce pass than a standard one, but Downs has been able to make the most of a difficult situation with a 20+ yard grab in four of his past five games (he had two of 27+ yards last week against the Titans).

I like the YAC skills of Downs and his lack of size pigeonholes him into a reasonably safe role. Well, as safe a role as this offense has to offer. I’m likely to have Downs ranked higher than consensus next season – is he that much different moving forward than Jayden Reed or Zay Flowers?

Quarterback play is obviously the distinguishing characteristic in that comparison, but I’m not burying Richardson long-term just yet.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (at NE)

Joshua Palmer has reached double-digit expected points in just two games this season, not a major surprise for a player with an aDOT (15.3) that nearly matches his on-field target share (16%).

I maintain my overall thought that a second pass catcher on this offense can thrive. This year, it’s been a revolving door; that might be the plan long-term under Jim Harbaugh. I’ll put in the work this summer to come up with a lean as to who is the WR2 to take a flier on, but that’s for 2025.

For Week 17, it’s Ladd McConkey or bust.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (at PIT)

JuJu Smith-Schuster has been unable to earn targets in an offense that has every reason to look his way if they thought of him as a serviceable piece. The Chiefs continue to chug along and with Hollywood Brown proving plenty ready in his season debut last week, Smith-Schuster is as clear a cut as it gets this time of year.

The veteran receiver has been on the field in this offense with regularity, and it hasn’t meant anything for us since the Week 5 game against the Saints that caught our eye (7-130-0). He’s caught just seven passes on 128 routes since – he’s a UFA this offseason and it’s hard to imagine him landing in a spot where I’m the least bit interested.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (vs. GB)

Justin Jefferson is as good as it gets, and taking time out from a busy football weekend to watch this man work is something I’d recommend to any football fan. We saw him put together a 6-85-1 stat line (29.6% target share) in the Week 4 meeting with these Packers when they were at the peak of their powers in terms of opportunistic playmaking. This unit is still solid, but Jefferson is as matchup-proof as anybody in the business, and I expect to get more evidence of that this weekend.

Jordan Addison is ascending quickly, and guess what? It doesn’t matter. In December, Jefferson produced 45.5% more points than expected on his targets — is it possible that the little target volume Addison’s breakout takes off the plate of Jefferson is more than replaced by increased efficiency?

That’s a scary thought. There’s never a reason to be concerned about Jefferson — watch him play this week and start putting together what you think the first round of 2025 drafts is going to look like. Spoiler alert: There won’t be many names called before JJetta.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (vs. SEA)

Allen has cleared 20 PPR points in four of his last five, and it hasn’t come in an unsustainable way. In fact, you could argue that he has underachieved based on the volume (190.1 expected points over that stretch compared to 173.4).

The exact role he fills week to week can vary (five end zone targets over the past two weeks after earning just one in his previous five games), but with over 100 air yards on his résumé in four of five games — and Chicago routinely playing from behind — there’s a nice built-in floor here that you can bank in as a PPR Flex option.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (vs. NYJ)

Keon Coleman has been on the field for over 60% of Buffalo’s snaps in both of his games back from the wrist injury, and I’d never count out a player with a role like that in a Josh Allen-led offense. That said, there’s a wide gap between “counting a player out” and “actively making excuses to start.”

The Jets own the third-best per-play defense in the NFL this season and are the best unit when it comes to preventing deep touchdown passes (1% of such attempts; league average: 6.7%).

Keep reading, and you’ll understand further why I think this is more of a Khalil Shakir week for the Bills than anything, but that’s certainly part of it. Coleman is a talented kid with a bright future, I just don’t think the future is now for a team with Super Bowl aspirations. The rookie has caught just two passes on four targets (43 routes) since returning, production rates that aren’t worthy of Flex consideration in even deeper formats this week.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (vs. NYJ)

The vibes aren’t high for Khalil Shakir’s managers, but I’d encourage you to hang in there. Buffalo as a whole was out of sorts last week against the Patriots (Shakir: two catches for 22 yards), but the volume was better than you’d expect from a 22-yard outing (six targets) and we have plenty of proof that this is an efficient tandem you can feel fine about betting on.

Is it weird that I was somewhat encouraged by the usage last week? Obviously, the production wasn’t there, but it’s clear that he is the receiver Josh Allen trusts the most and that trust is extending downfield (season-high 106 air yards).

I don’t think Shakir is going to assume a vertical role in this offense consistently, but the fact that he has a path to earning a few of those targets is good to see.

We had to survive a Shakir dud back in Week 6 when these two teams first met (two catches for 19 yards on an 8.7% target share), and that was without Amari Cooper on the roster. With Allen playing 4D chess these days, it’s always possible that we get a repeat performance where he spreads the love (six Bills had more PPR points through the air than Shakir in that first contest), but I’m not too worried about it.

Those deep targets are nice, but Shakir is always going to make his money in the short to intermediate passing game, and I think the Bills have a good chance to win there with regularity this week. The Jets are the only team in the NFL yet to intercept a pass that didn’t travel 15+ yards in the air, and the 2024 version of Allen is responsible with the football.

I know last week was tough to watch and that we’ve had two of those games in December — fear not, I like our chances of returning to that 12-15 PPR point range with the upside for more should Buffalo’s offense go rediscover their form from Weeks 13-14.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (at NE)

Over the past decade, only four receivers drafted outside of the first round have produced 24% over expectations during their first season (minimum 75 targets):

• • • • • A.J. Brown (2019): +53.6%
        • JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017): +44.4%
        • Tyreek Hill (2016): +32.4%
        • Jayden Reed (2023): +25.2%

Ladd McConkey sits at +24.3% and is showing no signs of slowing down. Thursday was the fourth time in two months in which not a single target to the rookie hit the ground, and while the scoring equity is lower than we’d like (one TD since the beginning of November), the combination of quality and quantity in the target department has McConkey as an auto-start in all formats.

Through 16 weeks, he’s spent 68.7% of his time in the slot, a spot on the field in which the Patriots struggle (25th in passer rating and 26th in opponent touchdown rate when throwing to the slot).

This is the window to make a run with him on your team — I don’t doubt that he’ll be productive (the four receivers mentioned above combined to log production 23.9% over expectations in their second season), but the price point is going to be very different.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (vs. IND)

There is no secret here — Malik Nabers is going to get weighed down with low-value targets and you’re going to throw (hopefully soft) objects around your living room as you pray for enough of them to connect and get you your 15+ PPR points.

It’s not a fun way to spend a Sunday, but at this point, you know the deal. Nabers set the Giants’ record last week for rookie receptions in a season and he’s checked every box you could ask for from a young player in terms of his individual profile, but this is a team game with more than a few moving pieces.

Nabers is hanging on to top-20 status in my Week 17 rankings by a thread. The Colts aren’t a stout defense, but they are better than average in terms of opponent completion percentage on deep passes and intercept those attempts at the second-highest rate.

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (at LAR)

There are 119 players who have cleared 60 receiving yards in a game from Weeks 9-16, over 3.5 per team, and yet, Marvin Harrison Jr.’s name is not on that list.

Yikes.

We saw him targeted with three of Kyler Murray’s first four passes a week ago and commitment like that this week should pay off against the seventh-worst yards-per-play defense in the league, if sustained.

Half of Harrison’s receptions for the entire game last week came in that first wave of passes, and that too was in a very favorable spot (at Panthers). The Rams allow deep touchdown passes at the seventh-highest rate, another flaw that Harrison has the potential to exploit and, if we are being honest, the only reason I’m still ranking him as a viable Flex play.

If you have Harrison on your roster and are still playing impactful games, the odds are good that you’ve settled on a replacement. Whether it is a Jalen McMillan type that has come on lately or a high-floor option like Adam Thielen, you’ve probably moved on, and at large, I think that’s 100% the right play.

This season, Chris Godwin has more finishes inside the top 20 than Harrison — he dislocated his ankle in Week 7.

This season, Quentin Johnston has more finishes inside the top 40 than Harrison — we still think that he may have been lying on his NFL résumé with the “can catch” sentence.

There might be a post-hype price tag that sucks me in next season, but for the remainder of 2024, you’re willfully ignoring all of the data points we have if you’re playing him with confidence.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (at NYG)

This season has been a disaster for Michael Pittman Jr.’s managers this season, there are just no two ways about it. This summer, only 34 players, forget receivers, came off draft boards before him on average, something that is hard to fathom now that he hasn’t scored since mid-October and has failed to clear 50 yards in 10 of 14 games.

I’m not starting Pittman this week and there’s realistically nothing he can do that would make me go this direction in Week 18 should your league extend that far. That said, if you’re reading this, you’re likely in a spot where you don’t have much of a choice, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.

Pittman’s aDOT has been more than halved when comparing his past three games to his previous six, and that is the leg you have to stand on. Now, it’s possible he runs 20 crisp, short routes in this game, and Anthony Richardson misses him by 2-3 business days with the pass, but those layup targets are how he gets to 12-15 PPR points and becomes worthy of your trust.

Through 16 weeks, the G-men rank 26th in opponent completion percentage on those short throws (75.7%), giving Pittman managers a glimmer of hope that we can see something like the 6-58-0 line that he gave us two weeks ago in Denver of the 6-96-0 production last month against the Lions.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (at LAR)

Am I ready to get sucked in again?

The Cardinals have turned back to Michael Wilson as a full-time receiver, but the counting numbers haven’t followed suit. There’s not a world in which you’re going this low in the rankings for your Flex, so if you’re reading this section, it’s because you have some interest either in dynasty or for 2025 redraft.

Cautious optimism.

I continue to believe that the way for Wilson to shift from afterthought to Flex-y is to be used as a vertical threat. His aDOT over his past five games is up 37.4% from where it stood in his previous three games. If we see that stick as 2024 comes to an end, I’ll be investing late-round draft capital in him again next season.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (vs. CAR)

Mike Evans has cleared 135 air yards in three of his past four games, and while the Jalen McMillan breakout seems to be here, it hasn’t done much to slow Tampa Bay’s WR1.

Evans has seen 14 end-zone targets this season, the ninth time he’s hit that mark; he needs 182 yards over the next two weeks to lock in his 11th straight 1,000-yard campaign.

For this week, there are no concerns as the Panthers allow deep touchdown passes at the fifth-highest rate and couldn’t slow Evans in the Week 13 meeting (8-118-1). In that contest, Baker Mayfield completed five of his eight deep passes, and with Evans being the favorite to be on the other end of those bombs, there’s a non-zero chance he gets to that 1,000-yard plateau by the end of the week.

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (vs. KC)

I can’t imagine a better run out for Mike Williams in Pittsburgh. He made a big play in his debut with the team to showcase his raw ability and then had some time to acclimate before George Pickens went down with an injury.

With a month to get used to the system, Williams would surely smash with his ideal role opening up in an offense that features deep balls just often enough to keep defenses honest.

Right? Nope.

Williams’ weekly snap shares with Pittsburgh:

• Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
• Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
• Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals: 24.2%
• Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns: 27.4%
• Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles: 36.6%
• Week 16 at Baltimore Ravens: 36.7%

Pittsburgh’s offense simply isn’t built for Williams, and that’s become obvious. Pickens will absorb all of the deep looks when active, and when he’s not, the Steelers’ offense goes into a shell (I’m going to keep betting unders on Russell Wilson’s longest completion until we get a fully healthy Pickens).

Maybe Williams makes a play during a tight postseason game. Nothing would surprise me with Mike Tomlin, but holding onto Williams at this point in the fantasy season is asking for too much.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (at JAX)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had the scoring run earlier in the season, and that was fun while it lasted.

Wait, no it wasn’t. Very few benefited from that binge run; if you’re a mathematically inclined person who writes about this stuff, you were forced to eat your words on a weekly basis.

Not fun. But the past three weeks have been more like it. Yeah, he scored last week, but with just 45 yards on 104 routes over that stretch, I feel vindicated when it comes to the process-based fading of NWI.

Westbrook-Ikhine has a career target rate of 13.7%, a number that is well below my threshold for getting any part of my interest.

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (vs. BAL)

You start Nico Collins every single week, and you start a WR1 facing Baltimore, making this a potential explosion spot for the Tank Dell-less Texans. Not one, not two, not three, but nine times this season have the Ravens allowed a receiver to clear 20 PPR (Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Malik Nabers, and Terry McLaurin are all on that list, the names you’d expect).

Why can’t Collins add to that list?

The Ravens are the fifth-worst defense when it comes to slowing the deep ball in terms of yards per attempt and interception rate. I believe that Houston pushes Collins’ average route further down the field sans Dell, and while that introduces some weekly variance, I’m happy to gamble in this spot.

Parker Washington, WR | JAX (vs. TEN)

Parker Washington had a 100% catch rate last week, and that allowed him to eke his way into Flex viability in PPR formats, but how comfortable are you in betting on a perfect day at the office in a Mac Jones-led offense?

Washington’s target rate over the past three weeks sits at 12%, a number that isn’t even remotely close to being roster-worthy. If you’re betting on Jacksonville, you’re doing it in chasing Brian Thomas Jr.’s high ceiling. You’re not trying to grind your way to another 11.4 PPR points that come with a disastrous floor.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (vs. ARI)

Remember when Puka Nacua threw a punch against the Seahawks back in early November? Since that game, his 17-game pace is for a cool 138 catches. It’s become clear that the NFL has no answer for him, and instead of him fading as the league gets film on him, he’s getting better.

Nacua has caught 87.1% of his targets over the past three weeks, up from 64.6% in his previous five games. As long as Matthew Stafford is under center, this is as safe of an asset as there is in the game. Depending on your draft slot next season, you might not get the chance to roster Nacua next season – make the most of it this year!

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (at NE)

When you bet on roulette, you understand that the odds are good that you lose, but there’s a window of hope, and that has you considering a spin every time you walk by it.

Quentin Johnston is that. He’s scored on 21.6% of his receptions this season and has the potential to reward you for your faith with a single play, but you need that single play because the volume is never going to be there. We are talking about a player who has failed to reach 50 receiving yards in seven straight games — with a streak like that, you can’t be mad when a 3-18-0 stat line occurs like it did last week.

That’s the cost of doing business.

Much like Buffalo Gabe Davis, you’re either fully committed to a specific spot or you’re wise to fade. The Patriots are the second-best defense when it comes to opposing deep passing touchdown rate — this doesn’t look like the 15+ PPR point spot for Johnston, and that means I have no interest.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (at HOU)

Rashod Bateman has eight touchdowns in 15 games this season, not bad for a player who had four in 35 games through his first 35. Has anything really changed or is he just running hot?

His catch rate (61.9%) is in line with his career norm (61.4%) while his on-field target share is actually at a career low. The low volume is, naturally, the result of his routes extending further downfield (15.8-yard aDOT), and while I spent time earlier walking you through what I like about Lamar Jackson’s growth, this is too thin of a profile to bet on this time of year in this spot.

The Texans are the fourth-best yards-per-play defense in the league, a ranking that has been buoyed by them being the best defense against deep passes. Through 16 weeks, they’ve coughed up just 8.3 yards per deep pass, a mark that is more than three yards below the league average and removes any level of stability for a player who relies on those splash plays to pay off.

Every summer, we get hype videos and optimistic quotes about Bateman. He’s returned enough value this season because of the touchdown rate, but I’m still not sold on him as a viable weekly option. That goes for the final two weeks of this season and, barring significant changes, into next season.

Robert Woods, WR | HOU (vs. BAL)

Whether it is the fact that Robert Woods has been on three different rosters in four years, has one 20-yard catch over the past calendar year, or is 32 years old – it’s easy to write him off as a fantasy asset these days. To add fuel to that fire, he’s produced at least 25% under PPR expectations in each of his past three seasons.

It’s possible that we will never get another impactful performance from Bobby Trees. That said, I like the strategic move of adding him. The Tank Dell injury (dislocated knee cap) opens up usage potential in a spot against at Ravens defense that is much more vulnerable through the air than on the ground.

I’m not ranking Woods as a starter and you’d really have to be in a rough spot to slot him in. Hopefully that’s not the case for you, but could it be for your opponent? Do you have a handcuff still rostered that is behind a healthy starter and thus holding no real value?

Then why not? Why not add a player in an offense that has top-10 upside this week, if for no other reason to ensure that it’s one fewer option for your opponent?

Realistically, I’d play receivers like Michael Wilson (at Rams), Alec Pierce (at Giants), or Christian Watson (at Vikings) over Woods this week. At best, he’s a bail out PPR plug-in that you’re hoping ekes out 10 points. But I like him to be the most valuable of the widely-available waiver wire options and in the name of taking away one of your opponent’s paths to production, I would make the claim.

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (vs. SEA)

I didn’t have any redraft shares of Rome Odunze this season, and I can tell you that won’t be the case next season.

We often see rookie receivers improve with reps, and Odunze is no different. However, his counting numbers have yet to reflect the strides that I believe he is making.

• Last six games: 13.2 expected PPR points per game
• Previous five games: 8.5 expected PPR points per game

By no means am I comparing Odunze to Ja’Marr Chase or CeeDee Lamb, but the idea of getting a high-pedigree WR that can develop alongside a quarterback also on the rise is something that I want to be invested in, potentially heavily.

I don’t think you can play the rookie with much confidence right now, given this offense’s range of outcomes, and to be honest with you, I’m rooting against Odunze. Not for my current ranking, but for my 2025 exposure — I don’t need his price soaring over these final two weeks as I’m already sold.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (at MIN)

Romeo Doubs has a pair of two-touchdown games this season; if you’re comfortable in your ability to project those, come work for us!

I’m smart enough to know what I don’t know, and this is one of those things. Believe me, I’ve tried. The matchups in which he thrived were different and his role entering those big spots was different. Both big games came against the NFC West in lopsided Packer wins; if you believe in those trends, fine, but neither is in play this week.

I’ve had trust issues with every Packer pass catcher all season long, and Doubs (sub-20 % target rate for his career) has yet to prove himself as anything more than a dart throw.

A blind dart throw.

No thanks.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (vs. BAL)

Tank Dell was responsible for half of Houston’s receiving yards at the time of the injury and was having his best game of the year with one of the better matchups possible looming.

All injuries hurt and, of course, our fantasy concerns are so secondary in a situation like this, but the fact that the Dell/C.J. Stroud was showing signs of potency at the perfect time had to have managers fighting for a title thinking that they had an optimal title piece.

Those dreams have been dashed and Dell’s 2025 evaluation is now muddied. We can cross that bridge as we get into his rehab process, but this is a brutal end to a sophomore season that failed to live up to the promise he showcased in 2023.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (vs. DEN)

This hasn’t exactly been a bump-free season for Tee Higgins, but the man produces far more often than not, and it’s clear that the Bengals know what they have in him (whether they want to pay him or not is a different discussion). Last weekend against the Browns, Joe Burrow directed three of his first four passes toward Higgins and was rewarded with three completions and a score.

That’s now five of six games with a score for Higgins. The failure in there was a 2-23-0 dud against the Cowboys on national TV, and that hurts the narrative around him, but make no mistake about it — Higgins is a fantasy star and a threat to be a top-12 receiver next season should he land in a situation with some level of stability under center.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (vs. ATL)

What a difference a QB makes. Terry McLaurin’s on-field target share this season (20.7%) is essentially identical to last season (20.6%), but his production relative to the expectation of those looks has spiked from -4% to +44.3%).

With the Commanders rediscovering their potent form from earlier this season, you’re blessed with the opportunity to click McLaurin into your lineup. I think his lasting impact from this season will have nothing to do with him — it’ll be in fantasy managers attempting to unearth the next uber-talent who is a QB away from elite status.

Malik Nabers is going to be the layup answer, and that doesn’t make it wrong. That said, it doesn’t have to be a player with a rookie QB. Rome Odunze could check this box. Could Jerry Jeudy make a jump like this? Maybe Josh Downs?

Tim Patrick, WR | DET (at SF)

The idea of Tim Patrick made some sense seven days ago, but now that we have a picture of what this offense will look like sans David Montgomery, there’s no reason to dig this deep.

Patrick scored three times in two games but was targeted just one time on his 21 routes against the Bears last week; Jared Goff instead loaded up his stars with looks (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta accounted for 84.4% of Detroit’s targets last week).

Every week you should be speculating on players like Patrick — players with a role that has a path to expansion. If it doesn’t happen, you chalk it up and move on.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (at CHI)

What are your thoughts on the Chicago Bears?

• “A ways away”
• “Overmatched in the NFC North”
• “Not ready to win now”

Is that about right? Well, they were a .500 team the week of Tyler Lockett’s last game with five PPR fantasy points. If you’re considering Lockett in weekly contests, you’re living in the past. We are in the business of predicting the future, a task that gets considerably more difficult if you’re beholden to names and production of yesteryear.

This is a DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba-led passing attack that doesn’t have the desire to get a third party involved consistently.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (at CLE)

Tyreek Hill doesn’t have a catch gaining more than 30 yards since Week 1 and has caught just five of 14 targets over the past two weeks after pulling in 10 of his 14 looks against the Jets in Week 14. We spent a first-round pick on him this summer hoping for groundbreaking games — we aren’t even getting flashes of it these days.

The short touchdown last week was nice, a little sprint out that seems close to uncoverable if the defense isn’t 100% willing to sell out, and gives him five in his past seven games, but that’s allowing him to stay afloat for fantasy managers instead of dominate.

I doubt you have three receivers I’d rather play, but I suppose it’s not impossible. In theory, this is as good a spot as any to break out – the Browns have intercepted deep passes at the second-lowest rate this season, so why not try?

You’re playing Hill, even if it’s not as comfortable as we had hoped. There aren’t expected to be any weather issues, so I’ll refrain from spamming you with “Tua in the cold” numbers. I’ve already bet this game to go over the total; if I cash that ticket, I feel good about the position of all fantasy teams with Hill exposure.

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (vs. IND)

Wan’Dale Robinson was targeted with seven of Drew Lock’s first 16 targets and he finished with a season-high 12 looks against a questionable Falcons defense.

Gold! PPR managers who stuck their necks out for Robinson or DFS players who went this direction with their punt must have been thrilled. Right?

Wrong.

It took him 12 targets to get to 13.2 fantasy points, and without any real reason to think that this offense will turn around (this week or for the remainder of the decade at this rate), why invest? The Colts have their fair share of issues, but they are the sixth best at taking away YAC yards to opposing receivers (4.0 per catch); that is all I need to cross Robinson off of all my fantasy boards for Week 17.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (at TB)

Xavier Legette is going to be more than a fun accent and interesting eating habits, but not yet.

Throughout his last seven games played with fellow rook Jalen Coker active, he’s turned 156 routes into just 148 receiving yards. There were some interesting scoring metrics on him earlier this season, but those have evaporated lately. Over his last five games, he’s been targeted on just 10.3% of his red-zone routes.

Citing “Carolina red-zone trips” is an issue unto itself given the small nature of it, and if Legette’s share is underwhelming, there’s no real reason to hold onto him, even if his status were to swing in a positive direction (groin), something that Dave Canales seemed awfully non-committal on at Monday’s practice.

You can move on in redraft spots, but I’d keep his name in the back of your mind for 2025.

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (at PIT)

There are a million ways to evaluate Xavier Worthy, and I can’t wait to do the true deep dive this summer. I add up the weekly stats and spot trends, but putting together the puzzle that has been his rookie season is a project I look forward to tackling in an effort to gain a better understanding of what works for him.

He’s posted consecutive 11-target weeks (his first two north of eight this season), and that’s impressive unto itself, but how about the role adaptation??

• Weeks 1-5: 10.4 aDOT (season comparison: Tyler Lockett)
• Weeks 6-11: 13.5 aDOT (season comparison: George Pickens)
• Weeks 12-16: 7.5 aDOT (season comparison: Tyler Boyd)

Interesting, right?

We are seeing a beautiful mind at work. Andy Reid’s commercials portray him a certain way (and, for the record, I love it), but when it comes to designing an offense, we are looking at a beautiful mind. He knows he has more pieces left on the chess board than you, and he’s simply trying to get a feel for what he has at his disposal as his team gears up to chase a three-peat.

If betting on Worthy is a way to bet on Reid, I’m comfortable in doing so, understanding that the range of outcomes is greater than most ranked in that WR3 tier this week. I love the fact that he has three carries in consecutive games — something that leads me to believe that Reid is getting close to optimally using this explosive weapon.

Be careful, NFL. Be very careful. “Conservative” Mahomes might not be the version that gets unleashed in January.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (at HOU)

Zay Flowers is coming off his fifth 100-yard performance of the season, and while the production hasn’t leaped forward the way most of us (hand up) expected, he has strung together five straight double-digit performances (four without the benefit of a TD), and that counts for something.

The problem is pretty clear — he’s not going to score with any sort of regularity with how this offense is structured. How crazy is it that the Ravens have scored 88 points over the past three weeks and that their WR1 doesn’t have a single red-zone target in the process?

It is what it is. Starting him is a bet on talent and is one I’m willing to make. Lamar Jackson has come his way on at least one-quarter of throws when he’s on the field, and with the Texans allowing the sixth-most yards per catch after the reception this season, I don’t think a second straight 15+ point PPR performance is at all out of the question.

Week 17 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brenton Strange, TE | JAX (vs. TEN)

Brenton Strange put up 18.3 PPR points on plenty of benches in Week 15 and then busted with a 2.2-point outing on Sunday in Las Vegas when we were ready to trust him.

Ugh.

I was ready to fire up “Ponzi Scheme Strange” as a nickname, and I still like the ring it has, but I don’t believe it. The fact of the matter is that the Jaguars simply didn’t view him as valuable in this spot.

One week after being on the field for 80.5% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps, Strange’s role was reduced to 50.8%, resulting in just 15 routes run. When fully extended, we still have this trend from last week:

Strange’s production in four career games with 20+ routes:

• • • • • 12.4 PPR points per game
        • 19.6% on-field target share
        • 25% target rate in the red zone

I can’t pretend to know what is going on in the Jacksonville coaching rooms, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that scoring seven points on your final nine drives against the Raiders wasn’t the result they were hoping for.

The Titans allow the second-highest opponent passer rating when their opponents reach the red zone (112.7). I’m hopeful that Strange’s participation increases OR that the value of his routes improve — if we get both, that is how you walk into significant DFS value.

He’s too thin of a play for me in season-long formats, but I’m not fully selling in my stock just yet.

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (at NO)

On Sunday, Brock Bowers joined Evan Engram (2023) and Zach Ertz (2018) as the only tight ends in the 2000s to have four double-digit-catch games in a season. That’s not a “rookie TE” list, that’s including everyone at the position.

We thought Bowers (nine top-five finishes this season) would be a dynasty difference-maker, but not many had him penciled in as an elite Day 1 option in sub-optimal passing conditions due to this roster. You’re playing him with the utmost confidence to round out this season and moving forward — the part I’m struggling with is labeling his ceiling.

Given the explosion we’ve seen from Terry McLaurin this season, his first with above-average QB play, I’m tempted to give Bowers borderline historic potential if/when the Raiders improve their quarterback room.

Cade Otton, TE | TB (vs. CAR)

Cade Otton sat out last week with a knee injury, and Baker Mayfield suffered. He suffered so much that he threw for north of 300 yards with a pair of touchdowns and completed 72.1% of his passes.

I’m going to keep saying it: Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field, nor does he impact the direction of this unit in a meaningful way. It’s really that simple. I write a million words weekly, and I just keep copy-pasting that intro until the higher-ups tell me that no one is consuming the Otton portion of this article.

With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• • • • • 14.1% on-field target share
        • 19.5% red-zone target rate
        • 4.3 aDOT

Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• • • • • 21.1% on-field target share
        • 30% red-zone target rate
        • 7,3 aDOT

Otton hauled in a pass on Tampa Bay’s second attempt in Week 15, a blowout win over the Chargers and guess what?

I didn’t blink, and you shouldn’t have either. I’m a selfish person, and I can’t fade a player I don’t roster, so I’ve taken to betting his under on receptions of late to leverage the rampant hype. I laddered his total down as low as my sportsbooks would let me.

Unless you play in a points-per-snap league, Otton’s status ahead of Week 17 isn’t one you should be worried about.

Chig Okonkwo, TE | TEN (at JAX)

This is why we love fantasy. And why we hate it.

Chig Okonkwo, the same Chig Okonkwo who did not account for a single one of the 707 performances in which a player had 20+ receiving yards in a game through Week 6, is the top-scoring tight end over the past two weeks.

I’ll take the pain to another level and let you know that his 33 PPR points that could have been had for free on the waiver wire are more than Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce combined, a duo you could have used the first two picks of your draft this summer to acquire.

Of course, I don’t think this is sticky, but he does lead the team receptions with Mason Rudolph under center – one more than Calvin Ridley on 41 fewer routes. The bar is low at the position and the matchup is right (the Jaguars are the only team allowing 8+ yards per pass this season) for Okonkwo to move onto the TE1 radar and be trusted as the premier streaming option if he is still available.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (vs. SEA)

We’ve seen flashes of promise from Caleb Williams, though his success is rarely funneled through the tight end position.

Cole Kmet’s touchdown last week was his first in the States since September, and his 23 yards this month aren’t nearly enough to offset a lack of scoring equity. It could work out that the 25-year-old Kmet is a part of the Williams era in Chicago as Keenan Allen ages out, but I’m not going to be holding my breath for this week or next season.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (vs. NYJ)

The Bills got caught in a battle with the Patriots last week. You’d think that would mean an unleashing of Dalton Kincaid one week after he returned to action in a limited capacity.

No dice. The second-year tight end was on the field for just 32.8% of Buffalo’s snaps (Week 15 at DET: 47.1%), a usage pattern that has me more scared than his target rate (seven on 14 routes) has me encouraged as this season comes down the home stretch.

I don’t want to speak in absolutes, but I do think I’m going to be more in on this profile than you. For next season. Kincaid was able to earn a 30.4% target share in Week 6 against the Jets and that’s proof of concept when it comes to winning against this defense. But Buffalo could be out of the mix for the one seed by kickoff. With limited motivation, I’m not overly optimistic that they extend his snap share to a point where I’m comfortable.

Kincaid is currently my TE15 this week, checking in behind names like Chig Okonkwo and Brenton Strange, two options you very much could have had (and might still be able to get) off of your waiver wire.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (vs. BAL)

Don’t look now, but Dalton Schultz has cleared 15 PPR points in two of three games and earned at least seven looks in three of five. His role stands to gain value this week given the matchup (Baltimore is a bottom-10 defense in yards per pass, yards per completion, and opponent TD/INT rate) and loss of Tank Dell, putting him in position to be trusted more now – with all the chips in the middle of the table – than at any point prior this season.

Fun.

I’m not considering Schultz a must start, but if he’s as viable as any option outside of that top tier. That is going to result in him being used this week. He saw two end zone targets on Saturday afternoon – that’s great if you want to read into it as a developing trend, but less so if you realize that they were his first looks like that since mid-October.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (vs. MIA)

David Njoku was questionable entering last week, but he posted his seventh top-10 week of the season and seems to be close to quarterback agnostic. His big play on Sunday was a 29-yard screen pass — a great design to beat a heavy blitz and one that he probably turns into six points if at full strength.

Even if he’s a bit compromised … even if the quarterback play in Cleveland is underwhelming … even if Miami is a top-10 pass defense in both yards per attempt and touchdown rate, you’re starting Njoku.

The more I look at my tight ends every week, the more I tend to believe that this is a position that rewards skill (be it athletic abilities or route running precision) over the situation, something that I’ll take into consideration when constructing my way-too-early 2025 overalls.

Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (vs. NYJ)

Dawson Knox saw his last chance at value this fantasy season come and go without much more than a whimper in Week 15 as Dalton Kincaid (knee) returned to action.

He had a pair of chunk gains, something that seemingly everyone who played in the Bills/Lions shootout can claim. Outside of that, it was a lot of nothing and certainly not enough to give me any level of confidence that his fantasy stock can survive as Kincaid is worked back into his full-time role.

Over the past three weeks, with the Bills scoring 114 points and Kincaid either out or at less than full strength, Knox has turned 75 routes into 69 touchdown-less yards.

George Kittle, TE | SF (vs. DET)

The 49ers’ offense is caving in on itself a bit, but that means that their remaining stars get the type of usage we need. Deebo Samuel Sr. is coming off of his first five-target, five-carry game since Week 1, and George Kittle had his first game of 2024 in which he had at least eight targets AND 100 yards.

This is a concentrated offense at a high level, and even if you think Brock Purdy is ordinary, the raw talent of the two players he is funneling the ball to make them assets you can trust.

I very much worry about the scoring equity of this offense, and that is why I’m avoiding them in those exotic prime-time sorts of DFS slates when possible (Detroit is the best red-zone defense in terms of opponent completion percentage), but for season-long, Kittle is a great bet to finish among the top three at the position in targets, and that means you’re starting him.

Grant Calcaterra TE | PHI (vs. DAL)

Right idea.

Fantasy is very much a game of opportunity, and when the Dallas Goedert injury opened the door for a one-to-one replacement in terms of role, Grant Calcaterra was a pretty reasonable add.

From a process standpoint, you weren’t wrong. He’s played over 88% of the snaps and three straight games, running 92 routes in the process. The problem is that instead of keeping Goedert’s role in-house at the TE position, they’ve (logically) elected to load up their star receivers with looks.

In those three games, Calcaterra’s 92 routes have yielded just 38 yards, and over the past two weeks, only a single target. I could alert you that the Cowboys own the worst red-zone defense in the league (75% touchdown rate, 36-of-48) in an effort to sell you on him as a streamer, but I’m not going to do that.

Well, I guess I just did. I’m arming you with information, information that I’m choosing to ignore in this instance. Either Jalen Hurts is a full go, and he soaks up a ton of red-zone usage, or he sits, and this team struggles to get to the red zone at their season rate (3.9 per game, sixth most).

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (vs. LAC)

It would appear that we have found the best way to utilize Drake Maye’s upside. Is it a little late? Sure, but better late than never, and Henry might be able to put you over the edge as you battle for supremacy in your league.

Last week, he posted his sixth top-10 finish at the position, in part because Maye acted as if he had Henry rostered on his fantasy team (four end-zone targets). The usage in close has been there when New England has gotten the opportunity to score, and while that’s encouraging, that’s not all he offers.

Henry offers plus athleticism and has been trusted with vertical shots this year. He’s cleared 50 air yards in four of his past five games, something that gives him the potential to pay off your trust even if you’re skeptical about an offense that enters this week with a sub-20 point projection.

You’re going to have to deal with the confusion on whether it is Austin Hooper (3+ catches in six straight games) or Henry making plays while you’re watching, but this offense pretty clearly wants to feature its chain-moving tight ends; Henry has been on the right side of that committee often enough for me to consider him a viable low-end TE1 this week, even in a tough matchup.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (at HOU)

Isaiah Likely scored last week and has caught all five of his targets on 32 routes over the past two games, but with Mark Andrews being used as the Mike Alstott of tight ends, is there really enough meat on the bone to make Likely’s upward ticking snap share worth much in our game?

I remain intrigued by this athletic profile and the creativity of this offense — consider me on board with drafting him again in 2025, but for the sake of the home stretch for 2024, you can do better.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (at PHI)

There was some momentum building in Jake Ferguson’s statistical profile ahead of Sunday night, but his 36% on-field target share against the Buccaneers was downright impressive.

We are well past the point where he is a lineup lock, so I don’t mind grabbing the elevated floor that he offers, even if there isn’t much of a ceiling to chase. Last week against Tampa Bay, his nine targets netted just 12 air yards, but that role resulted in six catches and a double-digit performance, something that is going to work with regularity.

The idea of Ferguson is strong. In a neutral matchup, he’d slide into the back end of my TE1 rankings, and I’d pick him over all waiver wire options. Sadly, this week is not that.

The Eagles allow the lowest completion percentage and the fewest yards per pass attempt on those short throws — that puts Ferguson managers in a bind where they have to rely more than they want to on a touchdown, a tough ask for a player who hasn’t earned an end-zone target since Week 1.

He currently sits outside of my top 12 at the position and is more likely to fall outside of my top 15 by kickoff than move into that TE1 tier.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE | CAR (at TB)

The potential is there for Ja’Tavion Sanders to develop alongside Bryce Young, and that’s going to have my attention in the 2025 redraft prep. I think there’s a lot to like in the rookie but not with your season on the line after consecutive goose eggs.

This season, just one of his 271 routes has earned an end-zone target. With seven instances in which a single-digit on-field target share was posted (zero targets on 21 routes in Week 16), the floor is too low to garner serious interest as a streaming candidate.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (at CLE)

Since 2021, Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Jonnu Smith are the only tight ends with a dozen PPR points in six straight games. I’m not calling him Tom Brady, but like the GOAT, Smith is breaking all sorts of age curves.

An age-29 career year?

At this point in the season, I’m past asking questions and just impressed by the profile. Smith has earned at least a 24% share of targets when he’s on the field in four of his past five games and has found stability in this quick-strike offense.

Smith’s athletic gifts were his calling card initially, but with just three games of 50+ air yards, I like his fit in Miami’s offense more than the hope for him to make a play down the field. We are looking at one of the cheat codes when it comes to successful fantasy teams in 2024 — there’s no reason to shy away now with your season on the line!

Juwan Johnson, TE | NO (vs. LV)

Juwan Johnson caught both of his targets on Monday night (27 yards), but a 7.1% target share in a Spencer Rattler offense is far from ideal. To complicate matters further, Foster Moreau led the team in receiving with a whopping 33 yards.

Jordan Mims and Dante Pettis accounted for the majority of New Orleans’ targets, so, yeah, there’s a world in which the target hierarchy flips this week, but are we sure it matters? Those two saw their 15 targets total 47 yards — that’s not going to get it done.

Before the Week 16 disaster, Johnson had three straight championship window games (Weeks 16-17) with over 11 PPR points. That streak ended on Monday and it’s possible he doesn’t total 11 PPR points across those two weeks this season.

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (at WAS)

The quarterback change in Atlanta was met with “Hey, it can’t get any worse” analysis for most, and that premise was fine. In fact, I agree with it. But “can’t get any worse” and “will get better” are not the same, and Kyle Pitts’ fantasy managers were reminded of that last week.

I thought Michael Penix Jr. was fine in his first career start, but that didn’t mean a damn thing for his tight end. For the eighth time this season, Pitts averaged under a yard per route and is quickly becoming an expensive version of Cardio Cade Otton.

Much like the Bucs’ tight end, I guess it’s within the realm of possibilities that Pitts could have him a moment in the sun should a role open up (à la Chris Godwin’s injury in Tampa Bay), but he’s pretty clearly a read-and-react option moving forward than he is a hold-and-hope one.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (at HOU)

Mark Andrews has been a score-every-other-game guy over the past three seasons, and with a touchdown in four straight, he’s filling a very specific role in this prolific offense. In those contests, he’s been targeted on 50% of his red-zone routes, a massive spike from his 22.2% rate through the first 11 weeks of this season.

Yes, his touchdown last week was very clearly a defensive miscommunication more than anything the Ravens did right, but part of being fortunate is being in position to be fortunate, right?

The Texans own the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL. While I’m not willing to say that Andrews will score in every game the rest of the season, it’s clear that Todd Monken has penciled him in for a very specific — and fantasy-friendly — role.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (vs. DEN)

We always hear that Mike Gesicki is a “glorified WR” — who is “glorifying” the tight end position? Yes, 96.3% of Gesicki’s snaps this season have yielded a route run, but that’s the football equivalent of “even a broken clock is right twice a day.”

Gesicki’s skill set is fantasy-friendly, but the role simply is not. He hasn’t been on the field for the majority of Cincinnati’s snaps once this month and has been held under 35% in three straight contests. Joe Burrow funneled 67.9% of his targets last week to either Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, something I have a hard time thinking changes as the 2024 regular season nears its conclusion.

I’m willing to prioritize role over talent in the lower rungs of the tight end position more often than not, and that is why I’m never going to land on this profile in its current state.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (vs. KC)

Pat Freiermuth, in theory, had a bit of a window to be an impact option at the position with George Pickens sidelined and thus plenty of opportunities through the air available.

No luck.

His catch-per-route rate has dipped over the course of those contests (14.3% in Week 14, 13.6% in Week 15, and 10% last week in Baltimore), and I don’t have much confidence that we see that revert anytime soon.

He’s going to have to run incredibly hot to matter, and that’s not the type of profile I want to bet on. Not only has Pittsburgh failed to score 20 points in more games than the Jets, Chargers, and Colts, among others, but even on the rare instance that they are in a position to dent the scoreboard, Freiermuth’s number isn’t sure to get called.

Last week, instead of posting up their tight end, the Steelers opted to throw a 12-yard fade to Cordarrelle Patterson. It worked, and even if it didn’t, it’s telling that this team is looking for different ways to finish drives.

Freiermuth scored in each of the three games prior to Week 16’s dud. But don’t lose track of the fact that he found paydirt in just one of six games prior. The floor is too low given the offensive environment, and the ceiling isn’t high enough to go this direction in a critical week.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (at SF)

At this point, Sam LaPorta isn’t going to cash in on our preseason hype, but he is trending in a strong direction at the right time. I think that stands to make this season a success for those who spent up early on him.

• • • • • Weeks 1-9: 3.3 targets per game (23rd among TEs)
        • Weeks 10-16: 7.0 targets per game (seventh among TEs)

The volume is finally there, and it really hasn’t come at the cost of his teammates. LaPorta has reached double figures in PPR points in four straight games. With the Lions’ defense banged up at every level, I’m confident in saying that this offense is going to be pushed consistently.

He may not have the clean path to being the top producer at the position right now, but he is deserving to be locked in without so much as a second thought.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (vs. GB)

T.J. Hockenson hasn’t been all that impactful since his return. That isn’t surprising, but the “how” behind it has been.

It’s Jordan Addison.

After a pair of ramp-up weeks, the Vikings got their tight end up to where they appear to be content with in terms of snap share (mid 60%). He hasn’t had any setbacks that would lead me to believe that there are limitations or aggravation to blame for 7.3 PPR points per game in December.

The emergence of Addison has simply made Hockenson’s role less advantageous. His on-field target share is down three percentage points from a season ago. With an aDOT that is up 15.8%, that brings into the equation two-for-27 stinkers like what we saw over the weekend in Seattle.

I fear that it’s possible we moved, rather quickly, from Tier 1 TJ to The Goedert Zone. In Philadelphia for the past three seasons, they’ve had a pair of strong receivers, and while their tight end served a purpose, he wasn’t the same asset he was before (14.8 yards per catch in 2021 and 11.4 since the acquisition of A.J. Brown).

It’s hard to make three pass catchers viable on any sort of consistent basis, and the Vikings seem to be leaving heavily in favor of a 22-year-old former first-round pick over a tight end in his sixth season coming off of a serious injury.

I can’t say I blame them. I also can’t say that I’d be overly comfortable in starting Hockenson this week. I’ve got him sitting at TE11 right now, just ahead of Brenton Strange but behind Chig Okonkwo and Dalton Schultz.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (at PIT)

By normal human standards, a 100-catch pace for a tight end with an elite quarterback under center is plenty, but Travis Kelce isn’t held to “normal human standards.” Expectations aside, we are in the much-feared turn-into-a-pumpkin zone.

• 2023: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
• 2022: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season

Kelce scored twice in Week 15 of 2021 against the Chargers — he hasn’t caught a touchdown in December since. As you might have guessed, a few players have found paydirt over that stretch:

Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends to ever play the game. But when it comes to December, he’s been surprisingly quiet.

258 players — and counting — have caught a touchdown pass in December since the future Hall of Famer last did. pic.twitter.com/0hf3QqeoB7

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 21, 2024

I know that because I’m a fantasy nerd. I doubt the Chiefs are aware of that fact because it hasn’t mattered in the least. It hasn’t stopped them from accomplishing their ultimate goal, and until this “ramp down to ramp up” thing fails, why would we expect it to change?

If Kelce were a receiver, we wouldn’t have an issue in benching him. The reason he is still in consideration is two-fold — it’s his résumé and the lack of reliable depth at the position. I’ve got seven tight ends in the must-start bucket for this week and another eight in the next range that can be shuffled up in any order. Kelce is firmly in that second group.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (at LAR)

Nobody is perfect. Once a month, we get duds from Trey McBride, and that’s simply the price of doing business.

• • • • • Week 3 vs. Detroit Lions: Three catches for 25 yards
        • Week 9 vs. Chicago Bears: Three catches for 35 yards
        • Week 16 at Carolina Panthers: Three catches for 20 yards

There’s nothing in McBride’s profile to sweat, and he remains one of the best in the game. In the Week 2 meeting with the Rams, he hauled in all six of his targets for 67 yards.

That’s on par with what you should be expecting and maybe Regression Claus can come to town with a score. McBride is going to be a lineup staple for years to come and will be on the shortlist for TE1 honors this summer in terms of ADP.

Tucker Kraft, TE, | GB (at MIN)

Tucker Kraft was fantasy’s second-best tight end for a month-long stretch (Weeks 5-8 in non-PPR, TE7 in PPR). Let this production curve serve as a reminder of the risk that comes with streaming the position.

I’ll cover it more this offseason, but if you’re going to piece together a position, you have to fully commit to it. It was easy to fall in love with the production, and I have no problem with holding on a week or two too long. But based on the questions I was getting around Kraft, many held on way too long.

From Weeks 6-12, he had one game with an on-field target share over 12.1%. One. There were some strong box-score numbers, but an underlying trend like that (something you’re in a position to be aware of because you’re checking out PFN content daily!) should have you proceeding with caution.

One final note here, outside of not playing Kraft with any level of confidence — buy in. Your plan was to stream the position, and thus, you’re confident in your ability to do so. Assuming that’s the case, you have an edge on your league and would be wise to maximize it.

So, why not sell Kraft during a run like he was having? Worst case, you’re selling him for a price that is close to his value, but the reward for getting out from underneath an unsustainable profile early can result in big gains (could you have gotten Jordan Addison or Jauan Jennings for him during that run?).

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (at BUF)

In his first game as a father, Tyler Conklin caught five passes (his most since Week 5) and increased his expected point total for a fourth straight game.

Baby swag?

Doubt it.

While he is constantly on the field, I’m going to need to see more evidence that he is a capable target earner at this level before assuming it. Before last week, Conklin was averaging a reception once every 11.6 routes this season. Let’s do some quick, back-of-the-napkin math.

• • • • • Jets offense: 39.2 dropbacks per game
        • Bills defense: 37.8 opponent dropbacks per game
        • Conklin’s season: 83.8% snap share

Take the average of the first two and apply Conklin’s season rate and we are looking at 32-33 routes. Based on his rates before Sunday, that leads to a sub-three-catch projection, and that’s a fade in all formats for me.

Will Dissly, TE | LAC (at NE)

Will Dissly (shoulder) was banged up in Week 14 and hasn’t played since. Stone Smartt has filled in admirably (11 catches on 12 targets for 141 yards over the past three games).

For the season, Dissly has a 78.2% catch rate and has provided a level of stability to a passing offense that largely lacks that outside of Ladd McConkey. But might the role of Dissly be more valuable than the player himself?

That is, with Smartt coming in and essentially being a skinny version of Dissly, I’m tempted to think that “Insert Chain-Moving TE” in this Jim Harbaugh offense has a path to low-end appeal in PPR leagues. Operating under that logic, I prefer Smartt to Dissly moving forward.

That’s not to say he is the better player, but if we are in a position to play him, it means that the snaps are all his because Dissly remains sidelined. This role isn’t one that I’m confident can be divided and provide us with much, but if we can project the bulk of that usage for one player, the case could be made for a fringe-TE1 ranking.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (vs. ATL)

Concussion protocol had Zach Ertz labeled as iffy last week and him being inactive would have saved us all. Instead, the veteran suited up and played a full role, giving us just a single catch (36 routes) in the exciting win over the Eagles.

Ertz ended November with three straight games of 7+ targets and that suckered me into thinking he was ready to emerge as the secondary pass catching option in this offense behind Terry McLaurin, but that dream appears dead at this point.

That’s now back-to-back-to-back-to-back games in which his yardage total has regressed, a trend that is too strong to overlook for average scoring equity.

I’m confident that the Commanders will be able to score, and it might well come through the air against a defense that allows the leagues highest red zone completion percentage, but pinning down where Jayden Daniels is going to distribute the ball has proven to be a fool’s errand (eight different Washington players have a touchdown reception this season).