The Houston Texans have had an up-and-down 2024 NFL season. A sexy preseason Super Bowl pick, Houston has struggled after a 5-1 start but exploited a weak division to repeat as AFC South champions.
After losing to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17, let’s take a look at Houston’s playoff scenarios and the road ahead for C.J. Stroud and Co.
What Is the Houston Texans’ Current Playoff Picture?
With their loss to the Ravens on Christmas Day, the 9-7 Texans are now locked into the No. 4 seed by virtue of their division title.
Houston is now two games behind the Ravens with only one game remaining, so they are stuck in the No. 4 spot.
Did the Texans Have Any Clinching Scenarios in Week 17?
Even if the Texans had finished 2-0, they wouldn’t have been able to rise above the No. 4 seed without help.
The only scenario where Houston could have secured the No. 3 seed is if they won out while the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers lost out, but obviously that didn’t happen.
How Does the Texans’ Week 17 Result Impact Their Playoff Scenarios?
The Texans’ loss to the Ravens clarified the Week 18 picture for Houston — the Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed and have nothing to play for.
That could actually be beneficial for the Texans, as Houston is now able to rest some of its starters and high-usage players such as Stroud, Nico Collins, Danielle Hunter, and Will Anderson Jr. Veterans such as Joe Mixon would also benefit from a de facto bye week before the postseason begins since the Texans are guaranteed to be playing on Wild Card Weekend.
Of course, Houston hasn’t really established much of a rhythm on offense in the second half of the season, so it’s questionable whether the Texans can really afford to pass up on reps for its offense. The unit has not had much continuity all season with their top three wide receivers all suffering significant injuries.
Now that both Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs are out for the season, the last two weeks could be important for Stroud to receive some game reps with his non-Collins targets, particularly the newly signed Diontae Johnson (who didn’t play on Christmas). Entering Week 17, Houston ranked 25th in PFN’s Offense+ metric, the worst of any team above .500.
There’s also the matter of the Texans proving they can actually compete with the types of teams they’ll see next month. Houston is 1-5 against teams that currently own a winning record, with the only win being way back in Week 5 vs. the Buffalo Bills. That was the last game they played this season with Collins, Diggs, and Dell all available.