Roger Goodell is certainly in the holiday spirit. As of Christmas morning, every game of NFL Week 17 had something at stake.
We go through all the scenarios with our penultimate NFL picks and predictions column of the 2024 regular season.
NFL Week 17 Predictions
All playoff and No. 1 pick probabilities are courtesy of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 43.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chiefs (14-1, the AFC’s 1 seed entering Week 17) would clinch home-field advantage with a win or tie or a Bills loss or tie.
The Steelers (10-5, AFC’s 3 seed) are assured a spot in the postseason field and have a 45% chance to host a first-round playoff game. To win the AFC North, they need to win out or have the Ravens lose at least once.
- David Bearman: Chiefs
- Adam Beasley: Chiefs
- Kyle Soppe: Steelers
- Dan Tomaro: Steelers
- Mike Wobschall: Steelers
The Chiefs win in 53.5% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 46.5) vs. Houston Texans
The Ravens (10-5, AFC’s 5 seed) can’t win the division if they finish in a tie with the Steelers, but are actually 55% favorites to win the AFC North because they have the easier remaining schedule (.400 winning percentage for Baltimore, .700 for Pittsburgh).
The Texans (9-6, AFC’s 4 seed) are basically locked into their current position (74.5%) but would catch the Steelers for the 3 seed if they win out and Pittsburgh loses once.
- David Bearman: Ravens
- Adam Beasley: Ravens
- Kyle Soppe: Ravens
- Dan Tomaro: Ravens
- Mike Wobschall: Ravens
The Ravens win in 66% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 43.5) vs. Chicago Bears
It’s NFC West or bust for the Seahawks (8-7, NFC’s 9 seed), who have just a 1% chance of qualifying as a Wild Card. Seattle has five different ways to win the division, and the most straightforward one is by winning out and the Rams losing out.
The Bears (4-11, in the No. 9 draft slot entering Week 17) have just a 1.6% chance of landing the No. 1 pick.
- David Bearman: Seahawks
- Adam Beasley: Seahawks
- Kyle Soppe: Bears
- Dan Tomaro: Seahawks
- Mike Wobschall: Seahawks
The Seahawks win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 42.5) vs. New England Patriots
The Chargers (9-6, AFC’s 6 seed) are in a win-and-get-in situation. They would also clinch a Wild Card spot this weekend with a loss if the Dolphins and Colts both either lose or tie this weekend.
The Patriots (3-12, No. 2 draft slot) would almost certainly land the first overall pick if they lose out and the Giants win once. They have the second-highest probability of getting that top pick (15.8%)
- David Bearman: Chargers
- Adam Beasley: Chargers
- Kyle Soppe: Chargers
- Dan Tomaro: Chargers
- Mike Wobschall: Chargers
The Chargers win in 70.1% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 50)
The Broncos (9-6, AFC’s 7 seed) have only two ways to clinch their first playoff berth since 2015 this weekend: By beating or tying the Bengals.
A Broncos win would eliminate Cincinnati (7-8, AFC’s 10 seed). The Bengals have just one path to the playoffs: Win out, have the Broncos lose out, and both the Dolphins and Colts lose or tie once in the final two weeks.
- David Bearman: Bengals
- Adam Beasley: Bengals
- Kyle Soppe: Bengals
- Dan Tomaro: Broncos
- Mike Wobschall: Bengals
The Broncos win in 57.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-6, 48.5)
The Cardinals (7-8, No. 16 draft slot) have been eliminated from postseason eligibility. They currently have the lowest draft positioning of the five 7-8 teams due to strength of schedule (.533).
The Rams (9-6, NFC’s 3 seed) cannot finish the season any higher in the standings than they are now, but they could finish as low as 11th in the NFC. They would clinch the NFC West this week with a win and a Seahawks loss or tie.
- David Bearman: Rams
- Adam Beasley: Rams
- Kyle Soppe: Cardinals
- Dan Tomaro: Rams
- Mike Wobschall: Rams
The Rams win in 61.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 46.5)
The Jets (4-11, No. 8 draft slot) have a 1.8% chance of finishing with the first overall pick. To do so, they need to lose to the Bills and Dolphins and get a lot of help.
The Bills (12-3, AFC’s 2 seed) are 64.4% to finish in their current playoff position but still have a 13.3% chance to land the 1 seed. To do so, they need to win out and have the Chiefs lose out.
- David Bearman: Bills
- Adam Beasley: Bills
- Kyle Soppe: Bills
- Dan Tomaro: Bills
- Mike Wobschall: Bills
The Bills win in 79.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 41)
The Titans (3-12, No. 4 draft slot) have a 7.9% chance of landing the first pick in the draft. But their current strength of schedule (.514) makes it unlikely that they would win tiebreakers with anyone but the Giants.
The Jaguars (3-12, No. 3 draft slot) have slightly better odds to “earn” the No. 1 overall pick (9.8%). The winner of this game will almost certainly be eliminated from consideration.
- David Bearman: Jaguars
- Adam Beasley: Titans
- Kyle Soppe: Jaguars
- Dan Tomaro: Jaguars
- Mike Wobschall: Jaguars
The Jaguars win in 52.1% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 49)
The Packers (11-4, NFC’s 6 seed) punched their ticket to the postseason in Week 16. They’ll be on the road on Wild Card Weekend, likely in their current positioning. Even if they win out, they cannot win the NFC North.
The Vikings (13-2, NFC’s 5 seed) absolutely can, though. What’s more, they have better than a 1-in-3 chance of landing the 1 seed. To do so, they simply need to win out.
- David Bearman: Vikings
- Adam Beasley: Vikings
- Kyle Soppe: Packers
- Dan Tomaro: Vikings
- Mike Wobschall: Vikings
The Vikings win in 54.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints (-1, 39.5)
The Raiders (3-12, No. 6 draft slot) have roughly a 1-in-11 chance of picking first overall. But their strength of schedule (.541) is working against them.
A top-five pick is still on the table for the Saints (5-10, No. 10 draft slot), but they would have to lose to the Raiders for that to have any chance of happening.
- David Bearman: Raiders
- Adam Beasley: Raiders
- Kyle Soppe: Raiders
- Dan Tomaro: Raiders
- Mike Wobschall: Raiders
The Saints win in 57.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Indianapolis Colts (-8, 40.5) vs. New York Giants
The Colts (7-8, AFC’s 8 seed) would be eliminated from playoff consideration with a loss or a Chargers or Broncos win. Their most realistic way to get in is by winning out and the Chargers losing out.
Fortunately for Indianapolis, the Giants (2-13, No. 1 draft slot) have every incentive to lose. The Giants control their own tanking destiny.
- David Bearman: Colts
- Adam Beasley: Colts
- Kyle Soppe: Colts
- Dan Tomaro: Colts
- Mike Wobschall: Colts
The Colts win in 61.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8, 49.5)
The Panthers (4-11, No. 7 draft slot) doomed any hope of the No. 1 pick by beating the Cardinals in Week 16.
The Buccaneers (8-7, NFC’s 8 seed) also hurt themselves last week. They surrendered control of their playoff destiny by losing to the Cowboys. To get in, they need to finish a game ahead of the Falcons in the standings; the teams are tied with two weeks to go. A loss and a Falcons win would eliminate them.
- David Bearman: Buccaneers
- Adam Beasley: Buccaneers
- Kyle Soppe: Buccaneers
- Dan Tomaro: Buccaneers
- Mike Wobschall: Buccaneers
The Buccaneers win in 72.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Miami Dolphins (-6.5, 40) vs. Cleveland Browns
The odds are quite strong that the Dolphins (7-8, AFC’s 9 seed) will be eliminated this weekend. To make it to Week 18 mathematically alive, they need to win and have either the Broncos or Chargers lose. Then, they’ll need even more help in Week 18.
The Browns (3-12, No. 5 draft slot) could lose their way into a long-term solution at quarterback. They entered Week 17 with a 9.3% chance of winning the race to the bottom.
- David Bearman: Dolphins
- Adam Beasley: Dolphins
- Kyle Soppe: Dolphins
- Dan Tomaro: Dolphins
- Mike Wobschall: Browns
The Dolphins win in 56.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 43)
The Cowboys (7-8, No. 15 draft slot) weren’t good enough to make the playoffs but not bad enough to earn a high draft pick in 2024.
But they could play spoiler for the Eagles (12-3, NFC’s 2 seed). Philly had some tough injury luck in Week 16 with Jalen Hurts’ injury. That probably fatally damaged the Eagles’ hopes of landing the No. 1 seed. But they could clinch the NFC East with a win/tie or a Commanders loss/tie.
- David Bearman: Eagles
- Adam Beasley: Eagles
- Kyle Soppe: Eagles
- Dan Tomaro: Eagles
- Mike Wobschall: Eagles
The Eagles win in 85.4% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders (-4, 47.5)
The Falcons (8-7, NFC’s 4 seed) are in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. If they win their last two games, they’re dancing. What’s more, the Falcons can clinch this week if they win and the Buccaneers lose.
The Commanders (10-5, NFC’s 7 seed) both closed in on a playoff berth and kept alive their faint division title hopes by beating the Eagles last week. The Commanders clinch at least a Wild Card with a win or a Buccaneers loss.
- David Bearman: Commanders
- Adam Beasley: Falcons
- Kyle Soppe: Commanders
- Dan Tomaro: Commanders
- Mike Wobschall: Commanders
The Commanders win in 67.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Detroit Lions (-3.5, 51) vs. San Francisco 49ers
If the Lions (13-2, NFC’s 1 seed) win the NFC North, they almost certainly will secure the first-round bye. That could happen as early as this weekend. The Lions would clinch the division with a week to play with a win and a Vikings loss.
The 49ers (6-9, No. 11 draft slot) saw their playoff hopes end last week.
- David Bearman: Lions
- Adam Beasley: Lions
- Kyle Soppe: Lions
- Dan Tomaro: 49ers
- Mike Wobschall: Lions
The Lions win in 68.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Percentage of Games Correctly Picked Through Week 16
- Mike Wobschall: 71.1%
- Kyle Soppe: 67.9%
- Adam Beasley: 66.3%
- David Bearman: 63.3%
- Dan Tomaro: 60.1%