The Seattle Seahawks are 8-7 and now need to win their final two games and for the Los Angeles Rams to lose their last pair of contests to get in the playoffs. For Seattle bettors, they have been similarly middling, going 6-7-2 ATS and 8-7 in favor of the Over.
As a whole, the first season under Mike Macdonald has been a success and there is opportunity to build on that success going forward. That all starts with quarterback Geno Smith and how they play from this point on after a slightly disappointing season from the offense as a whole.
The Chicago Bears are in a difficult place as an organization. They have fired their head coach and moved on from two play-callers this season, with all of the upheaval unfolding during first overall pick Caleb Williams’ first NFL season.
Hopefully, his growth hasn’t suffered long-term damage and both the team and quarterback can bounce back under an innovative coach like Ben Johnson in 2025.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Seahawks -3.5 - Moneyline
Seahawks (-192); Bears (+160) - Over/Under
43.5 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m ET - Location
Soldier Field
Seahawks vs. Bears Preview and Prediction
Per TruMedia, the Bears rank 26th in offensive EPA (expected points added) per play. When looking at drop backs where Williams is not pressured, the Bears improve to 20th. The Bears’ offense has struggled staying on time, which can be blamed on both the quarterback and the play-calling but not the offensive line. PFF has the Bears’ offensive line ranked seventh in Pass Block Grade and eighth in quick pressure rate allowed.
They average a 3.09-second time to throw, which is fourth longest in the league. As mentioned in past articles, the Bears don’t do well at creating separation in their routes. As a team, they rank 23rd in PFF’s separation score. The four players that qualify rank 45th, 65th, 69th, and 100th out of 115 players. Hopefully, next season, the Bears hire a play-caller that can scheme guys open and allow Williams to play in rhythm.
Seattle’s defense ranks ninth in EPA and 24th in success rate. They rank 11th and 13th in preventing passing and rushing explosives, showing that they let teams drive on them but do well to create turnovers and limit the big plays. This coincides with their 10th-place ranking in defensive EPA generated from turnovers this season.
Seattle ranks 12th in pressure generated and does this primarily through rushing four. With four pass rushers, Seattle ranks sixth in pressure generated, 26th with five pass rushers, and eighth with three.
Chicago’s defense has been one of the more surprisingly underwhelming units this season. Their body of work in the second half of last year had everyone on board with the Bears as a top-10 unit going into 2024. Thus far, they rank 14th in EPA and eighth in success rate, but 27th and 24th in passing and rushing explosives allowed.
Much of this has come from their inability to play from behind, a scenario the Bears have often found themselves in. The Bears rank sixth in EPA when leading and 23rd when trailing. To put into perspective how often the Bears are playing from behind, I broke the game into three phases — positive, neutral, and negative.
A positive game-script situation is defined as having over 70% win probability in a game, neutral is between 31-69%, and negative is 30% or below. The Bears have spent 51.1% of their plays in a negative game-script situation, which is the highest mark in the league by 3.1%. Since 2010, only 10 teams have spent more time in a negative game-script situation.
Seattle’s offense has been rather disappointing this season, ranking 20th in EPA, 16th in success rate, 11th in passing explosive play rate, and 23rd in rushing explosive play rate. Unlike the Bears, it’s a pretty accurate to blame the offensive line for some of the troubles.
The Seahawks rank 25th in PFF Pass Block Grade, give up the 11th-most quick pressures per drop back, and get blitzed at the fifth lowest rate in the league. This low blitz rate is a direct result of Seattle giving up the second-highest pressure rate to four-man pass rushes. Next offseason, I will research play callers and coordinators to see what kind of insights I can find about how an offense/defense is performing as well.
Overall, the Seahawks’ defense should do a good job of getting enough pressure on Williams to at least make him uncomfortable. I have my reservations about Seattle’s ability to finish, as they rank 24th in pressure-to-sack rate, 18th in EPA against scrambles, and 27th in EPA against designed QB rushes. With a playoff spot on the line, a clear coaching advantage, and a much better team, I think the Seahawks come away with this one.
My pick: Seahawks -192