It’s Week 16, and for fantasy football leagues, it means it’s playoff time. You either win or go home — it’s as simple as that.
There are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant tight end in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 16 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Brenton Strange | JAX (at LV)
It’s a lost season for the Jaguars, but like the Panthers, this team has some young members of the passing game that have the remaining weeks to further their development.
Brian Thomas Jr. is obviously an NFL player and potentially a bona fide star as early as next season, but what about Brenton Strange? The 23-year-old former second-round pick will have as great a role as he can handle coming down the stretch this season, and he’s done nothing but show well for himself when given the opportunity.
Strange’s production in four career games with 20+ routes:
- 12.4 PPR points per game
- 19.6% on-field target share
- 25% target rate in the red zone
Once you get past the top seven tight ends on the board this week, there are questions aplenty. Travis Kelce has his December woes and maybe no Patrick Mahomes, Dalton Kincaid is still working his way back, Tucker Kraft has cleared 41 yards once since Halloween, and the only reason I’m stopping with examples there is because I value the time of our wonderful editing staff.
The point is that you could squint and rank Strange as a top-10 tight end in the fantasy playoffs. I’m not going that far quite yet, but if a few injury situations go south, I might get there by Sunday. This is a weather-proof game against a bad defense that is without its best player and playing on short rest.
Brock Bowers | LV (vs. JAX)
The only conversation surrounding Brock Bowers at this point is whether or not he is the TE1 this week and moving forward. I lean the direction of Trey McBride, simply because the volume is similar and I like the upside that comes with his looks over the mess that the Raiders have at this point in the proceedings. But reasonable minds can differ, and there is no denying that Bowers’ abilities to rack up YAC is already elite.
Word to the wise — Bowers is a unicorn. His excellence this season doesn’t erase the learning curve that we’ve seen at the tight end position. “Just look at what Bowers did in a feature role last season” is a sentence I expect to hear following the NFL Draft when a below-average offense brings in a TE prospect who charts well.
Be careful.
Cade Otton | TB (at DAL)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Otton is inactive for today's game
I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple. I write a million words weekly, and I just keep copy-pasting that intro until the higher ups tell me that no one is consuming the Otton portion of this article.
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 14.1% on-field target share
- 19.5% red-zone target rate
- 4.3 aDOT
Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 21.1% on-field target share
- 30% red-zone target rate
- 7,3 aDOT
Otton hauled in a pass on Tampa Bay’s second pass over the weekend in the blowout win over the Chargers and guess what?
I didn’t blink, and you shouldn’t have either. I’m a selfish person, and I can’t fade a player I don’t roster, so I’ve taken to betting his under receptions of late to leverage the overrating of the Bucs’ tight end. I laddered his total down as low as my sportsbooks would let me (I got under 4.5 heavily juiced and under 3.5 at plus money) last week.
Brenton Strange (JAX) and Stone Smartt (LAC) are good options for the “made up or NFL player” name game for casual observers — they also happen to be tight ends that I’d play in all formats this week with confidence over Otton.
Cole Kmet | CHI (vs. DET)
Since the beginning of November, Chicago’s talented receiving trio has rotated whose day it is to shine. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore have both had 100-yard games during that stretch, while Keenan Allen posted consecutive top-five finishes at the position in Weeks 12-13.
We were always asking a lot of Caleb Williams to provide consistent value to two pass catchers, so why would we enter a matchup with our season on the line with his fourth option in our starting lineup?
Cole Kmet has struggled to make multiple impact plays over the course of 60 minutes all season long, and his 8.3% target share in the first meeting with the Lions doesn’t exactly inspire me with confidence for this game played on short rest.
Dalton Kincaid | BUF (vs. NE)
There are two types of people in this world, and the Dalton Kincaid situation separates them.
In his return from a Week 10 knee injury, Kincaid was targeted on 31.8% of his routes and wasn’t put in the trenches a single time. He made a highlight-reel, over-the-shoulder grab that reminded us all of what we saw from him a season ago.
A compromised Kincaid was on the field for 47.1% of Buffalo’s snaps last week, a rate that paled in comparison to Dawson Knox’s 73.5% snap share. Josh Allen completed just 57.1% of his passes directed at his recovering tight end, the lone thing the MVP front-runner struggled to do at a high rate on Sunday (76% completion rate to all other teammates).
Both of those paragraphs are 100% accurate. How did you read Kincaid’s Week 15?
I’m forever an optimist, and that has me trending toward the first one. There are plenty of moving pieces from a health perspective in this offense, but if I go down because I trusted a player tethered to this version of Allen, I can live with it. Kincaid currently sits as my TE10 for Week 16.
David Njoku | CLE (at CIN)
Week 18 Status: PLACED ON INJURED RESERVE
David Njoku couldn’t practice all week due to a hamstring injury, and while the team kept him listed as “questionable” up until Sunday, he seemed like a long shot to play all long.
His practice habits this week will again be worth monitoring, especially with this a lost season for the Browns. They need all of their key options healthy to open next season as they (presumably) intend to go back to the well-compensated Deshaun Watson under center.
That said, if Njoku clears the health hurdles, you play him and feel good about it. He lit up this vulnerable Bengals defense back in Week 7 (10-76-1 on a 29.2% target share). With three top-five finishes at the position over his last four games, the athletic profile he provides this passing game with is worthy of lineup-lock status.
Dawson Knox | BUF (vs. NE)
Dawson Knox saw his last chance at value this fantasy season come and go without much more than a whimper in Week 15 as Dalton Kincaid (knee) returned to action.
He had a pair of chunk gains, something that seemingly everyone who played in the Bills/Lions shootout can claim. Outside of that, it was a lot of nothing, and certainly not enough to give me any level of confidence that his fantasy stock can survive as Kincaid is worked back into his full-time role.
Over the past two weeks, with 176 points put on the board, Knox managed just four looks on 54 routes run. If he’s not going to be heavily used in a pair of high-scoring games with the pass-catching nucleus at less than full strength, there’s really nothing to discuss here.
Knox’s remaining impact in our world for this season is any target limitations he puts on Kincaid — this isn’t a player that should be kicking around on redraft rosters at this point.
George Kittle | SF (at MIA)
How good is George Kittle? At a position that is rarely called upon for role adjustments, he’s doing it. His blocking is obviously of value, but he’s vacuuming in targets are a consistent rate (6+ in seven of nine games) and doing all sorts of damage with them (he has a catch gaining more than 30 yards in six of his past seven contests).
The ability to earn looks is one thing, but the ability to do it all over the field is another. On Thursday night against the Rams, he posted 119 air yards, easily a season-high and six more than he had racked up in the three games prior.
His production aligns with that of his quarterback in that if you think this team is going to win, you’re locking him into your DFS lineup along with your season-long exposure (14+ PPR points in each of San Francisco’s past five victories).
Grant Calcaterra TE | PHI (at WAS)
The idea behind handcuffing a running back is that, at that position, the secondary option often picks up a similar role to the injured starter. That’s rarely the case among pass catchers, as the vacated usage is usually spread out among various players.
In Philadelphia, Dallas Goedert’s loss has been Grant Calcaterra’s direct gain. The third-year man out of SMU has cleared a 91% snap share in consecutive games. In a contest that has the potential to push 50 total points, there’s the potential for him to fall into low-end TE1 PPR value.
Do I like the fact that his 60 routes over the past two games have netted just 38 yards? Of course not, but there is a role available for a player who scored on 16.5% of his collegiate receptions and is facing the defense that allows touchdowns at the fifth-highest rate in the league (25.9%).
If the Brenton Stranges and Stone Smartts of the world aren’t available, Calcaterra has the potential to save your bacon this week in a pinch.
Hunter Henry | NE (at BUF)
Despite an on-field target share trending up (22.1% over his past four games), it’s been more than two months since Hunter Henry found paydirt. Betting in any capacity for that to change this week with an implied team total struggling to reach 17 points is risky to say the least.
If the scoring equity is low, we need access to a ceiling in different ways, ways that are not available to Henry in this Drake Maye-led offense. In a game where the Patriots were behind for 85.7% of their offensive snaps and opposing a vulnerable Arizona defense, Henry recorded nine air yards.
Nine.
The Bills rank in the top 10 in YAC per reception and touchdown percentage to the tight end position, giving Henry far more risk than potential reward in this spot. Cut ties and move forward — Henry is not one of the two alliterative tight ends I have in my top 15 for Week 16.
Jake Ferguson | DAL (vs. TB)
Jake Ferguson has been one of my bigger misses this season, and I’ll learn from it moving forward. I’m likely going to be done with messing around in the middle tiers at the tight end position.
Some of the early-season returns were positive (three straight top-10 finishes from Weeks 3-5), but with just one such showing since, it’s clear that he is more of a risky streamer than the lineup lock I had hopes for.
The good news is that the Bucs allow the third-most yards per TE target this season (8.9) — and the Cowboys are likely to be playing from behind. The not-so-good news is the fact that Fergy doesn’t have an end-zone target since the season opener, and his target-per-route rate has dropped from 21.9% to 18.9% since returning from his concussion.
I have him in the Pat Freiermuth and Hunter Henry tier of tight ends that I’d rather not play but will consider if there isn’t a strong role otherwise available (for the record, I have Jacksonville’s Brenton Strange ahead of this tier).
Ja’Tavion Sanders | CAR (vs. ARI)
The potential is there for Ja’Tavion Sanders to develop alongside Bryce Young, and that’s going to have my attention in the 2025 redraft prep. I think there’s a lot to like in the rookie, but not with your season on the line after consecutive goose eggs.
This season, just one of his 250 routes have earned an end-zone target. With six instances in which a single-digit on-field target share was posted, the floor is too low to garner serious interest as a streaming candidate.
Jonnu Smith | MIA (vs. SF)
Jonnu Smith is the sixth tight end since 2016 with at least 70 catches and six TDs through 15 weeks. In the scope of that list, only he and Travis Kelce were 29 years of age or older when accomplishing the feat — no matter how you split it, Miami’s veteran is having a helluva season.
His touchdown last week came on a rare Tua Tagovailoa scramble drill where he was unable to uncover on a fourth-down play. Every week he seems to find a different way to produce, and while the Dolphins’ postseason dreams are all but dead, I think their tight end can continue to help you chase yours.
Smith has posted five straight top-seven finishes at the position. I had him ranked as such last week, and he has entered my seven-man circle of trust at the position. You should feel fortunate to have him at your services as you chase glory.
Juwan Johnson | NO (at GB)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Johnson is active for today's game
The situation in New Orleans and trying to project target shares is beginning to feel like shuffling chairs on the Titanic. Would it be nice to get right? Sure, who doesn’t like being right? But would it impact the well being of any fantasy roster if I did nail it?
Nope.
Foster Moreau had more catches than Juwan Johnson had targets in the loss to the Commanders last week because of course he did. This roster is void of NFL-level playmakers not named Alvin Kamara, and with no stability under center, why get cute and take on a Packers defense that looked pretty good on Sunday night?
Johnson has scored on 13.6% of his career receptions — that’s the type of note that can be fun to use when streaming if the offense has a level of promise to it. This unit lacks that, and with an implied team total hovering around 15 points for Monday night, I’m very comfortable in taking the ‘less is more’ approach with any positive-based exposure to the Saints.
If you want to bet unders — we can have that discussion (the Best Bets column publishes every Sunday morning!).
Kyle Pitts | ATL (vs. NYG)
Disaster. Bust. Waste of my time.
I hear of these things weekly and, more often than not, it feels accurate. There’s nothing in Kyle Pitts’ production profile that suggests that his physical tools are going to be unlocked at the right time.
That said, would you believe me if I told you that, through 15 weeks, he is one of five tight ends with a four-game streak of double-digit PPR performances (Weeks 5-8)? The other names on that list are universally trusted at this point (Trey McBride, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Jonnu Smith), but the dots just haven’t connected.
It’s crazy that Pitts’ name is on the list. That’s kind of like me asking you to guess which two QBs drafted in 2021, 2022, or 2023 have at least three top-10 fantasy finishes this season.
The answers are Brock Purdy and … Anthony Richardson, the quarterback equivalent to Pitts.
Richardson and Pitts are the Spiderman meme for me — the idea of that player holding upside makes plenty of sense, but the idea of counting on either with my season on the line is nauseating.
Mike Gesicki | CIN (vs. CLE)
Mike Gesicki has run a route on 96.7% of his snaps this season and that’s great. The Bengals have no interest in asking him to block, and that’s generally a good box to check. But getting on the field is also a positive — that is not currently a strength for their tight end.
That’s now consecutive games with under 20 routes run and 10 games this season with a sub-50% snap share. It was good to see that Joe Burrow’s first two completions in Tennessee went to Gesicki, but we are talking about trying to trust a TE with a limited role that has resulted in just one finish inside of the top 15 performers at the position since September.
There are tight ends in explosive offenses that I’d rather take a flier on than Gesicki.
There are backup tight ends walking into more featured roles that I’d rather take a flier on than Gesicki.
You don’t have to dig this deep.
Sam LaPorta | DET (at CHI)
I need a hand here.
Nobody in the fantasy football industry is shy about taking layups and nor should they. If I had a nickel for every “LaPorta Potty” reference after the slow start to this season, I’d have a lot of nickels because what good is change in 2024?
I think I refrained from such low-hanging fruit. Not because it wasn’t deserved (Sam LaPorta was TE17 in September after being a third-round pick in most drafts), but because I generally take a longer-term view. For better or worse, I stay locked into my prior takes for longer than most because I trust the work I put in to arrive at my takes.
Well, we are back now and I need your help. What’s the “good” version of “LaPorta Potty” when it comes to wordplay? I’ve toyed with Sam TeLaPorting Your Team, but you’re more creative than I am, so hit me up with your best ideas (https://x.com/KyleSoppePFN). The budding star has earned at least six targets in five straight games and has now posted three straight top-10 finishes at the position.
I’m starting LaPorta wherever I have him and am not hesitating at paying for his services in a DFS setting if his ownership numbers come in soft against a vulnerable defense on short rest that is playing out the string.
T.J. Hockenson | MIN (at SEA)
With each passing week and the postseason an inevitability, the Vikings are best served to see if their star tight end can approach elite form. T.J. Hockenson’s snap share has gradually moved in the right direction after a November ramp-up, and I have no problem in labeling him as the pass catcher on this roster I trust most to fit the complementary role next to Justin Jefferson.
Jordan Addison has been great and carries more per-target upside than Hockenson, I don’t think that’s debatable, but the postseason can be as much about not beating yourself as it is about outright winning games. In that regard, I like what a fully involved Hockenson offers this offense.
The more that Minnesota puts on his plate, the better for fantasy managers. A short week here and then a west-to-east travel situation before your fantasy Super Bowl isn’t ideal, but I’ve got Hock locked into my top five at the position.
Trey McBride | ARI (at CAR)
At this point, it’s pretty clear that the NFL doesn’t currently have an answer for Trey McBride. He’s posted four straight top-five finishes at the position (PPR) and has 10 top-10 weeks this season – he’s essentially comes with no risk and great upside at a position that, at times, feels like throwing darts.
Kyler Murray has the fifth-lowest average air yards (6.9 yards) among qualified QBs, and that leads me to believe that McBride’s elite floor is here to stay for well beyond this season. He has at least seven grabs and 10 targets in four consecutive games, joining Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Christian McCaffrey as the only active players with such a streak within their first three professional seasons.
It’s far too early to make any broad claims for next season – but if the industry doesn’t push the elite tight ends up draft boards, there might be a case to be made for taking two of the top-five at the position – locking in stable Flex production while weakening your opposition in the process.
I’m not locking that in as the Soppe Strategy to take to the bank just yet, but it’s bouncing around in my head.
Tucker Kraft, TE, | GB (vs. NO)
Tucker Kraft fell short of expectations last weekend (5.4 PPR points), but the process remains sound. He’s not part of the must-start tier at the position, but he’s in the mix for TE8 behind those locked-in seven – and it has very little to do with what he offers as a player.
- Kraft ranks fourth at the position in percentage of team snaps played (86%)
- The Packers have scored 30+ points in four straight games
That Green Bay streak is the second longest in franchise history (who can forget the seven games of 1963?), and those two traits are enough to land you, with confidence, inside my top-12 at a position that lacks consistency.
For his career, Kraft has caught 75% of the passes directed his way. With 12.6 yards per catch, those targets result in fantasy production. The Saints own the third-worst goal-to-go defense through 15 weeks, and should the Pack find themselves on the doorstep, it’s easy to envision a situation in which the road team backs the line of scrimmage to stop Josh Jacobs.
I’m not banking on a bail-out short touchdown, but the path is there given the role and scoring environment. I think you can feel good about plugging in Kraft and taking your chances.
Tyler Conklin | NYJ (vs. LAR)
Tyler Conklin was inactive last week as he and his wife welcomed their first child into the world on Saturday night. There’s no health reason for him to not be with the team this week, but you can safely ignore the status of New York’s TE1.
Aaron Rodgers is looking at two players and two players only. Against the Jags, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson caught all three of his touchdown passes while accounting for 87.9% of his passing yards. Jeremy Ruckert got the start at tight end and did his best Conklin impression by turning three targets into 12 yards.
You can disagree with my novel on Rodgers, but I’d have to be really wrong for Conklin’s role to spike to that of a usable rate.
Zach Ertz | WAS (vs. PHI)
Last Updated Sunday at 11:30 AM
Ertz is active for today's game
With Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler out, the Commanders will enter Week 16 with two active players that have over 300 receiving yards this season.
Think about that. Foster Moreau has 302 this season for the Saints – he’s been the TE3 in an offense that has struggled to pass the ball for the majority of this season.
Zach Ertz turned a 21.9% target share into six catches for 47 yards and a touchdown in the Week 11 meeting with these Eagles.
I’ll happily admit that there is a wide range of outcomes to consider (five games with over a dozen points and four games with under six this season) and that this matchup isn’t ideal (PHI: fourth-lowest opponent score rate). But with backup quarterbacks largely responsible for getting TEs in this range the ball (Jacksonville, Dallas, and maybe Kansas City), Ertz is as live an option as anyone outside of a clear-cut top-seven at the position.