The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 8-6 and lead the NFC South after stomping out the Los Angeles Chargers 40-17 last week. Mike Evans needs 251 receiving yards in three games (84-yard average) to maintain his impressive 1,000-yard season streak. According to TruMedia, the Bucs are 7-1 in the last two seasons when Evans goes for more than 84 yards.
The Dallas Cowboys got a win against the Carolina Panthers last week, which was one of those wins that boosts morale but also worsens their draft picks for 2025. With a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs, the Cowboys will look to play spoilers the rest of the season while they evaluate players looking for new contracts (ahem: Micah Parsons).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Bucs -4 - Moneyline
Bucs (-218); Cowboys (+180) - Over/Under
48.5 total points - Game Time
8:20 p.m ET - Location
AT&T Stadium
Bucs vs. Cowboys Preview and Prediction
The Bucs rank sixth in EPA (expected points added) per play on offense this season. Explosive plays come at ease for them, ranking 10th in passes of 20+ yards and fourth in rushes of 10+ yards.
Dallas ranks 15th and 24th in stopping explosive passes and runs, respectively. The Cowboys also rank 30th in defensive EPA per rush, whereas the Bucs rank fifth in EPA per rush.
Dallas ranks 25th in overall defensive EPA but drops to 29th in man coverage. Despite running man coverage an average amount, the Cowboys could struggle here against a Tampa Bay team that ranks third in EPA against man coverage and just torched the Chargers for 68 yards and two touchdowns against it last week.
The Cowboys’ one redeeming quality on defense is pressure. They rank third in pressure rate, fifth in quick pressure rate, and seventh in blitz rate.
Tampa Bay’s offensive line has given up the second-least amount of quick pressures and is first in overall pressure rate allowed. They also rank second in PFF’s pass-block grade, showing that their pressure numbers aren’t just a result of their time to throw (12th-fastest).
In the few instances where the Bucs are pressured, Baker Mayfield doesn’t do as hot. They rank 17th in EPA when under pressure and 15th in EPA when blitzed. Among 80 offensive tackles, Tampa Bay’s tackles are ranked sixth (Tristan Wirfs) and 23rd (Luke Goedeke) in PFF grades. This should help them mitigate a Cowboys pass rush that is carried by their edge rushers.
Offensively, the Cowboys rank 25th in EPA but have shown some life, ranking 14th since Week 12 (two games after Cooper Rush’s first start of the season). Much of this is likely due to playing defenses ranked 24th, 26th, 30th, and 31st in EPA. Luckily, Tampa Bay’s defense isn’t much better at 22nd.
Dallas’ offense in those games managed 54 plays of 10+ yards (sixth) and 12 plays of 20 or more (15th). Luckily for Tampa, its bad defense doesn’t stem from big plays. They rank 20th in passes of 20+ yards given up and fourth in rushes of 10 or more yards given up. The main issue for Tampa’s defense has been mobile quarterbacks.
The Buccaneers rank 30th in defensive EPA against scrambles and 17th against designed QB runs. This surprises me, considering how well they get after the quarterback — ranking fifth in pressure rate and blitzing the second-most in the NFL. Another stat showing this discrepancy is Tampa’s pressure-to-sack rate, which ranks 25th.
I imagine the issue stems from a lack of discipline in pass-rush lanes and not much support from the linebackers once quarterbacks scramble. To quantify these issues, I looked at the Bucs’ defense when quarterbacks are in the pocket versus out of it. Tampa Bay ranks 14th in EPA in the pocket and dead last versus out of the pocket.
Overall, the Cowboys have been able to beat up on weaker teams but shouldn’t stand a chance against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is tied for sixth in the NFL in cover percentage, with a 9-5 record against the spread. They also rank fourth in cover margin, covering the spread by an average of 5.68 points per game.
In games where the Bucs are favored by four or more points, they are 3-2 ATS. The two games they didn’t cover came against the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers.
Bo Nix has been one of the best scrambling quarterbacks this year on top of the Broncos’ No. 1 ranked defense. Carolina, meanwhile, saw Bryce Young play the game of his life, including a scramble that resulted in a touchdown.
Dallas ranks 30th in scrambles with a grand total of 10 this year. They won’t be able to get explosives against this Bucs defense, and the Cowboys’ defense doesn’t match up well at all against Tampa Bay’s offense.
My pick: Bucs -4
