Who will pick No. 1 overall in the 2025 NFL Draft remains very much up in the air, with seven teams sitting on either two or three wins entering Week 16. The Las Vegas Raiders and New York Giants are tied at 2-12, with the New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, and Cleveland Browns at 3-11.
In the event of a tie on record, the NFL Draft order is decided based on the team’s respective strength of schedule (SOS), with the lowest SOS getting the higher pick. Therefore, as things stand, the Raiders are sitting atop the NFL Draft order with a 0.541 SOS compared to 0.550 for the Giants.
At PFN, we use the newer approach to assigning a team’s SOS where we include the SOS for all the opponents a team will play as opposed to just considering the opponents of the the games they have played so far. That allows us to more accurately project where their SOS will sit when we get to the end of Week 18.
The current NFL Draft order entering Week 16 for the 2025 NFL Draft is projected to be as follows:
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12; SOS: .541)
- New York Giants (2-12; SOS: .550)
- New England Patriots (3-11; SOS: .462)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11; SOS: .479)
- Carolina Panthers (3-11; SOS: .498)
- Tennessee Titans (3-11; SOS: .506)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11; SOS: .527)
2025 NFL Draft No. 1 Overall Pick | Week 16 Update
As things stand entering Week 16, no team “controls its own destiny” for the No. 1 overall pick. The Raiders and Giants have the comfort (?) of knowing that if they go 0-3 they are guaranteed to pick in the top two. However, their fate in terms of the No. 1 pick is actually in the hands of their opponents, past and present.
If the season ended today, the Raiders would pick first in the 2025 NFL Draft, as they currently have the worst strength of schedule of the two. However, when you break it down by games won, the difference is just a game. The Raiders’ opponents have a combined record of 133-113, while the Giants’ opponents have a combined record of 132-108.
Therefore, things could easily flip in the span of just a couple of games. If both teams continue to lose their own games, the SOS could fluctuate until the end of Week 18. Ironically, by losing, both teams are also increasing their own SOS by adding to the win column of their respective opponents.
Here are the games in Week 16 that will impact the Giants’ and Raiders’ SOS situations, whose SOS would increase if that team won, doubling as the rooting interests for each of the two fan bases.
- Giants at Falcons (NYG)
- Giants fans: Falcons
- Raiders fans: Giants
- Titans at Colts (NYG)
- Giants fans: Titans
- Raiders fans: Colts
- Rams (LV) at Jets
- Giants fans: Rams
- Raiders fans: Jets
- Jaguars (LV) at Raiders
- Giants fans: Raiders
- Raiders fans: Jaguars
- 49ers at Dolphins (LV)
- Giants fans: Dolphins
- Raiders fans: 49ers
- Buccaneers (NYG) at Cowboys (NYG x2)
- Giants fans: Buccaneers
- Raiders fans: Cowboys
As things stand, the PFN Playoff Predictor gives the Giants a 37.5% chance of clinching the first overall pick while the Raiders are actually third “favorites” at 15.7%, behind the Patriots (18.1%).
The reason for that is that the Raiders have a game at home against the Jaguars this week that they are slightly favored to win in our projections (56.2% win probability). Additionally, the Raiders have a greater-than-38% win probability in all of their remaining games, while the Giants are below 40% in all of their three, and the Patriots are below that in all four games.
Based on our individual game projections, the Raiders have just a 16% likelihood of going 0-3, while the Giants have a 42% likelihood and the Patriots have a 53% likelihood.
The Patriots’ percentage chance of getting the first overall pick is high because their SOS is .462. Their opponent record is 111-129, which is 22 wins lower than the Raiders and 21 wins lower than the Giants. Therefore, if the Giants or Raiders were to win a game in the remaining four weeks, it is unlikely their SOS would be lower than the Patriots after Week 18.
In general, things get a lot more complicated for the No. 1 pick if both the Giants and Raiders win one more game.
The Patriots would be in pole position in that instance, but they only have a four-game “lead” in terms of SOS over the Jaguars and eight games over the Panthers. Therefore, they will also be closely watching their 14 opponents to see how that evolves in terms of their chances to get the No. 1 overall pick.
Our projections have the chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick for all seven teams at 2-12 or 3-11 as follows:
- New York Giants: 37.5%
- New England Patriots: 18.1%
- Las Vegas Raiders: 15.7%
- Carolina Panthers: 11.2%
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.4%
- Tennessee Titans: 4.6%
- Cleveland Browns: 4.1%
Below is an overview of the scenarios that need to play out for each of the eight two- and three-win teams to get the number one overall pick. To play out specific scenarios for yourself, visit the PFN NFL Playoff Predictor where the projected NFL Draft order updates live with each selection.
Las Vegas Raiders’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Raiders is that they go 0-3, and the Giants win one game. That would leave the Raiders as the only two-win team in the NFL.
If both teams finish with two wins, the Raiders need to hold onto a one-game advantage in terms of SOS. As described above, this is largely out of their hands, and there are lots of potential outcomes.
As we advance through each of the next three weeks, we will have a clearer picture of what the Raiders need to happen. Potential clinching scenarios could come into play in Week 17 or 18.
New York Giants’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Giants is that they go 0-3, and the Raiders win one game. That would leave the Giants as the only two-win team in the NFL.
If both teams finish with two wins, the Giants need to overturn a one-game disadvantage in terms of SOS. As described above, this is largely out of their hands, and there are lots of potential outcomes.
As we advance through each of the next four weeks, we will have a clearer picture of what the Giants need to happen. Potential clinching scenarios could come into play in Week 17 or 18.
New England Patriots’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Patriots would be for them to go 0-3 and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
However, the most “realistic” scenario would be that the Giants and Raiders both win one more game to reach three wins. The Patriots currently have the lowest SOS by four games among two- and three-win teams, so they would need to hold onto that, but that is largely out of their control.
An ideal situation for the Patriots would be for at least the Giants, Raiders, Panthers, and Jaguars to win one more game each. That would leave the Patriots with an 11-game lead in terms of SOS over the nearest remaining three-win team as things stand entering Week 16. While not impossible for that to be overturned, it is significantly less likely to see a change than a four-game lead.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Jaguars would be for them to go 0-4, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
However, the most “realistic” scenario would be that the Giants and Raiders both win one more game to reach three wins. The Jaguars currently have the second-lowest SOS among the two- and three-win teams, so they would need to get below the Patriots and hold onto their lead over the others, but that is largely out of their control.
An ideal situation for the Jaguars would be for at least the Giants, Raiders, Patriots, and Panthers to win one more game each. That would leave the Jaguars with a seven-game lead in terms of SOS over the nearest remaining three-win team as things stand entering Week 16. While it is not impossible for that to be overturned, it is less crowded than their current situation, with the Patriots below them in terms of SOS.
Carolina Panthers’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Panthers would be for them to go 0-3 and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
However, the most “realistic” scenario would be that the Giants and Raiders both win one more game to reach three wins. The Panthers currently have the third-lowest SOS among the two- and three-win teams, so they would need to get below the Patriots and Jaguars and hold onto their lead over the others — but that is largely out of their control.
An ideal situation for the Panthers would be for at least the Giants, Raiders, Patriots, Jaguars, and Titans to win one more game each. That would leave the Panthers with a seven-game lead in terms of SOS over the nearest remaining three-win team as things stand entering Week 15. While it is not impossible for that to be overturned, it is less crowded than their current situation, with the Patriots and Jaguars below them in terms of SOS and the Titans three games above them.
Tennessee Titans’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Titans would be for them to go 0-3, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
However, the most “realistic” scenario would be that the Giants and Raiders both win one more game to reach three wins. The Titans currently have the fourth-lowest SOS among the two- and three-win teams, so they would need to get below the Patriots, Panthers, and Jaguars and hold onto their lead over the others, but that is largely out of their control.
Ideally, the Patriots, Jaguars, and Panthers would win one more each, as would the Giants and Raiders. As things stand, that would leave the Titans with the lowest SOS. However, they are only four games below the Browns in terms of SOS, so that lead is extremely tenuous.
They are also only eight and nine games ahead of the Giants and Raiders. Therefore, a lot could change among those five teams, making this a tricky scenario to chart.
Cleveland Browns’ Scenario for No. 1 Pick
The simplest scenario for the Browns would be for them to go 0-3, and all other teams get to four wins, leaving them as the only team with three wins.
If it comes down to SOS, the Browns currently sit at the upper end of the pack in terms of the two- and three-win teams. They have a higher SOS than the Patriots, Panthers, Jaguars, and Titans.
At the very least, the Browns need the Raiders and Giants to both win one more game, but having two or three others also win another game would clear things up. If that is not the case, their fate is largely out of their hands, and they will need to rely on shifts in SOS over the final few weeks to put them on course for the No. 1 overall pick.
