The Tennessee Titans will face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Titans and Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
If you live by Anthony Richardson, at this point, you inevitably die by Anthony Richardson.
I wasn’t exactly celebrating in the streets, but I had a contrarian Richardson lineup in my DFS portfolio last week, and after one drive, I thought I was in the running for the smartest man on the planet.
- 22 passing yards
- 28 rushing yards
- Rushing TD
At low ownership because of poor play and a brutal matchup, I thought I was sneaky. That I was the one who spoke a big game in the perfect spot into existence.
That, friends, didn’t happen. As it turns out, 67.3% of Richardson’s fantasy points for the day were scored on that first possession. Again, we were left wanting more. The man has thrown 20 passes in a game eight times this season and failed to complete the majority of them in seven instances.
What was I truly thinking was going to happen?
Most games since 2022 with 20+ attempts and a CMP% of 50% or less:
- Richardson in 2024 alone: Seven
- Zach Wilson: Six
- Baker Mayfield: Five
Lovely.
I could tell you that the Titans own the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, which is 100% true. But I don’t wish for you the level of “how could I have assumed anything different” second-guessing that I experienced for the final 55 minutes of Week 15 in watching every Colts snap.
Richardson is my QB17 this week with the full understanding that there will be highlight plays in both directions. I simply don’t have the stones to go back to the well — I’ve been burned too many times for such a short period of time. Maybe this is a relationship the two of us can figure out — I hear that “time heals all wounds.”
Maybe.
Mason Rudolph, QB
Did you know that Mason Rudolph’s first name is “Brett”?
There ya go; now you can’t say I never teach you anything.
Rudolph was fine last week (209 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception), but consider the source. He was able to leverage a Bengals matchup and kinda sorta almost be viable.
The Indianapolis matchup isn’t one that needs to be feared, but they aren’t Cincinnati.
Defensive ranks, 2024:
- Red-zone defense: Colts (17th), Bengals (31st)
- Goal-to-go defense: Colts (14th), Bengals (31st)
- Yards per completion: Colts (11th), Bengals (22nd)
- Deep pass TD%: Colts (second), Bengals (27th)
In a Superflex situation, I’d take Rudolph over a Xavier Worthy type, but that’s as far as I’m going.
Tony Pollard, RB
Tony Pollard came into Week 15’s game with the Bengals battling an ankle injury, but Tennessee called his number in a significant way early on (five carries and a touchdown on their first six plays from scrimmage).
That’s the good. The bad was the rest of the game. He finished with 17 carries for just 45 yards and is now producing 20% under expectations over his past three games. Combine his underwhelming performances (yet to be a top-20 RB in consecutive games this season) with a mini-Tyjae Spears breakout (10 touches and two scores last week) and we could be looking at a running back that sees his production fall off a cliff at the worst time possible.
Pollard has lost two fumbles over the past three games; volume has been his calling card this season, something that is very much at risk.
I currently have Pollard on my re-draft benches and will pivot if we get positive health news.
Tyjae Spears, RB
Tyjae Spears caught a 17-yard touchdown pass from Mason Rudolph last week, and that came after he punched in a short touchdown on the ground thanks to a very iffy pass interference call that put this team in a position to score.
Tony Pollard came into the week with a bulky ankle, but all reporting out of Tennessee seems to suggest that the 55/45 snap share edge with which Spears finished last week was more earned than injury-related.
Spears hasn’t gotten the chance to shine consistently on the NFL stage, but the returns in his limited usage through two seasons have been encouraging (78.4% catch rate and 5.2 yards per touch).
I want more news on Pollard’s ankle before labeling Spears as a Flex option for Week 16, but considering that the Colts are the second-best run defense by EPA, there’s a reasonably clear path for Spears to see a handful of check-down targets on Sunday.
With full-blown committees penciled in for the Jaguars, Jets, and Broncos, not to mention unappealing situations for the Giants, Raiders, and Chargers, there’s a reasonably clear path to top-30 value if we see reports suggesting that Spears could again handle half of the snaps this weekend.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
I’m sure there are people out there that were eliminated by Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball before crossing the goal line last week and, for those people, I’m sorry. This game of ours can be mentally taxing, and losing like that is going to take some time to recover from.
The Colts, albeit without Taylor or Anthony Richardson, managed to run for just 80 yards on 28 carries in the first meeting with the Titans. This Tennessee defense can have success, and I worry that they do against what is essentially a one-dimensional offense in Indy these days. But don’t confuse them as a shutdown unit that can’t be beaten — they’ve allowed at least three points per drive on five occasions this season.
With over 95 rushing yards in consecutive games, Taylor is a fringe RB1 this week. I still think he has an elite upside, something most are not giving him credit for. The Titans have allowed the highest passer rating on RB targets this season, and that has largely been what has been missing from JT’s profile (his last game with more than 12 receiving yards came in September).
I’m not calling for a vintage performance, but I’m not ruling it out. You’re starting him in all season-long spots, and I’ll have some DFS exposure.
Josh Downs, WR
Josh Downs used the Week 14 bye to heal up his shoulder (DNP in Week 13) and walked right into his standard role by playing 76.4% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps with a 72.7% slot rate.
Downs can be as healthy as he wants to be, and for my money, he’s the best receiver in this offense. But it doesn’t matter if the quarterback can’t throw a stone into the ocean.
Let’s play a game. There are eight receivers this season with at least 50 targets who were drafted inside of the top 75 at the position this summer and have spent over 60% of their time in the slot. Below are their catch rates:
- Player A: 80.7%
- Player B: 80.6%
- Player C: 75.4%
- Player D: 75.3%
- Player E: 74.6%
- Player F: 71.6%
- Player G: 67%
- Player H: 65.1%
Have your guesses?
I’ll buy you a little scroll time. These slot targets are supposed to be the easy-button options, the layup targets, the ones the defense is more willing to give up than the deep ball over the top.
Downs was able to parlay this role into a 7-66-1 stat line on a 25% target share in the first meeting with the Titans, numbers that came from Joe Flacco.
That’s not the world we are currently living in.
How many did you get right?
- Player A: Khalil Shakir
- Player B: Chris Godwin
- Player C: Jayden Reed
- Player D: DeMario Douglas
- Player E: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Player F: Ladd McConkey
- Player G: Cooper Kupp
- Player H: Josh Downs
The point is that you can be as big a Downs fan as you want to be and still not feel great about Flexing him this week with your season on the line. I have him ranked in the same tier as the struggling Deebo Samuel Sr. and Tank Dell.
Alec Pierce, WR
Alec Pierce (head) was an early exit last week after a tough fall and his iffy status is more than enough to justify looking elsewhere. He’s largely unproven as a target earner and is playing in an offense with the most sporadic QB in the league.
The ability to stretch the field is a real skill, and if we know anything about Richardson, it’s that he has the arm to hit the end zone from anywhere. However, Pierce should be ignored in all season-long formats — he’s exactly the reason God created DFS.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy profile has changed this season in a major way. He has sacrificed target share (on-field rate is down from 27.5% last season to 22.8% this year) for an increase in depth (8.1 up to 11.1). It hasn’t worked — he’s turned 27 deep targets into just 28.3 PPR points.
In theory, any Anthony Richardson-led offense comes with a wide range of outcomes. Some are positive, but without a single top-15 performance this season, is the risk worth it?
I approach any Richardson game with the hope for a high possession count, understanding that there will be wasted drives, and it’s hard to feel good about that count this week against the second-slowest-moving offense in the NFL.
Pittman was a lock starter for most when we opened the season, but now, he’s not even a top-40 guy.
Calvin Ridley, WR
In the limited sample with Mason Rudolph this season, Calvin Ridley has as many targets as any two of his teammates combined, but the volume has been empty on all levels.
Titans pass-catchers production with Rudolph, 2024:
- Calvin Ridley: 38 targets, 20 catches, 284 yards, zero TDs
- Chig Okonkwo: 22 targets, 15 catches, 142 yards, zero TDs
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 16 targets, 11 catches, 108 yards, three TDs
- Josh Whyle: 14 catches, 12 targets, 121 yards, one TD
- Tyler Boyd: 12 targets, nine catches, 84 yards, zero TDs
The tight end split is interesting if you’re trying to get exposure to this game to be different in a DFS setting, but outside of that, you’re fading all parts of this passing game. The problem here is that the least targeted players are the most fantasy-efficient — in a low-volume offense, that’s not going to cut it.
There are three big-play receivers this week working with backup QBs, and I have them ranked back-to-back-to-back in the low 40s at the position (Jerry Jeuy and Xavier Worthy being the other two).
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR
Don’t you love it when regression works the way it’s supposed to?
No? Just me?
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was scoring once every 4.8 targets for over two months, and I don’t think I ranked him as a top-40 option once.
No…I know I didn’t. And I was wrong plenty. I went the other way in just about every question that came in on Twitter, and I’m sure I cost some people some matchups.
But water has finally begun to find its level.
There have been a few misses, I’ll give you that. Westbrook-Ikhine’s role near the goal line is certainly noteworthy, but nothing in this profile outside of a crazy scoring spurt requires our attention — and that includes the offensive environment as a whole.
Westbrook-Ikhine has not been a top-60 receiver in consecutive games and safely, again, ranks well outside of my Flex tier this week. He earned just two targets in the first meeting with the Colts (Week 6), one of which, of course, was a score. If you want to chase that, go ahead. It’s not for me and never will be.