The Minnesota Vikings will face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Vikings and Seahawks skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Sam Darnold, QB
The Seahawks boast an average pass defense by any measure, and that makes this a reasonable bounce-back spot for Sam Darnold as he comes off of his first game in a month without multiple touchdown passes.
The 2024 version of Darnold is essentially 2023 Brock Purdy in that he has a strong supporting cast and is excelling, for the most part, at pulling the right levers at the right time.
He’s a low-end QB1 for me this week, with the thought being that we get the traditional 250 passing yards and two scores.
That stat line is fine if the rest of your team offers plus upside.
Geno Smith, QB
Week 9 was the last time Geno Smith finished inside of the top 20 at the position. Asking him to reverse that trend against the blitz-heaviest defense in the NFL is a tall order.
Seattle’s offense as a whole has been underwhelming of late. Five of the first six Seahawks games this season went over the betting total, but unders are 6-2 since.
I currently have Smith sitting outside of my top 20, ranking in the same range as the random number generator that is Anthony Richardson.
Cam Akers, RB
Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case — and that’s where we stand right now.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
Zach Charbonnet is the most valuable Seahawks running back for the remainder of the season.
I feel fine in saying that with my chest for two reasons — he’s been great in Kenneth Walker III’s absence over the past two weeks, and even if the presumed starter returns to action, we could be looking at something close to a split backfield.
That means that we are looking at similar values the rest of the way if Walker is back this week while Charbonnet has the potential to fill the role that has seen him rank as RB2 over the past two weeks for at least another game.
The Vikings are a top-six run defense against RBs in terms of EPA, yards per carry, and rushing touchdown rate, making this close to a no-fly zone if we get whispers of a split situation nearing kickoff. I’m comfortable in one bell-cow Seahawk back posting top-20 numbers, as I think this offense will look to minimize Geno Smith’s volume, but if we are dividing a volume-based role multiple ways, I don’t see a way in which I rank either as a must-start for Week 16.
Aaron Jones, RB
Aaron Jones has not been Josh Jacobs-levels of good, but he’s been great, and fantasy managers can feel good about counting on him this week against a defense that allows the fifth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs.
Jones has multiple receptions in four straight games and at least 15 carries in six of his past eight. This isn’t the type of running back with a clean path to top-five value, but safely sliding into the top 20 seems safe, and that’ll work this time of year.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
Kenneth Walker III missed last week with an ankle/calf injury and his status for this week is TBD. Zach Chabonnet filled the full version of Walker’s role in Week 14 (29 touches and seven catches on seven targets) and seemed poised to do so again in Week 15, but the game with the Packers was never close enough to really get a feel.
I don’t think we have a changing of the guard in Seattle should everyone be healthy; the idea of this being a committee and/or hot-hand situation is certainly there.
Walker has had his health issues in the past, and it’s not as if he was overwhelmingly productive before getting banged up (Weeks 8-13: 31.1% below PPR expectations).
Keep an eye on every update coming out of Seattle this week. They are going to want to establish the run to help neutralize Minnesota’s aggressive playcalling, but how they go about that is to be determined. Should we get a clean bill of health for Walker, he’ll be ranked ahead of Charbonnet for me, but the gap won’t be nearly what it was a month ago.
Jordan Addison, WR
Jordan Addison is going to be the poster child for players like Rome Odunze and Xavier Worthy this offseason — rookie receivers who put good film out there before coming into their own during Year 2.
Here is the entire list of receivers with more than 40 targets since Week 11:
- Puka Nacua: 52 targets (130 routes)
- Jakobi Meyers: 51 (218)
- Ja’Marr Chase: 51 (180)
- Jerry Jeudy: 50 (213)
- CeeDee Lamb: 50 (174)
- Keenan Allen: 49 (201)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 49 (203)
- DJ Moore: 46 (207)
- Malik Nabers: 46 (168)
- Tyreek Hill: 44 (194)
- Jordan Addison: 44 (169)
- Brian Thomas Jr.: 43 (150)
- Davante Adams: 42 (150)
- Justin Jefferson: 42 (187)
I’m not suggesting that we have a WR committee in Minnesota or anything like that, but the ability to earn targets at effectively a St. Brown rate over an extended period of time while Jefferson is healthy is downright impressive.
It should be noted that Addison’s aDOT over that stretch trails only Jeudy of the names on that list. On the whole, I’d read that as a positive, as the ability to earn targets with that level of consistency downfield is even more difficult to do. However, the Seahawks focus on taking away those shot plays.
Through 15 weeks, Seattle owns the second-lowest opponent aDOT, which is why I have a little hesitation about locking in Addison ahead of a Ladd McConkey type with a safer floor.
The second-year star still ranks as a top-25 receiver for me and can be started in most spots. I just wanted to provide a little bit of context, as it is very possible that you have Addison rostered alongside a trio of stars.
Justin Jefferson, WR
For the second time this season, Justin Jefferson has caught at least seven passes in three straight games. We’d also be looking at consecutive multi-TD games if he didn’t put a 30-yard touchdown on the ground last week.
There’s a lot of talk these days as to who the best receiver is in the NFL. Jefferson seemed to have that title coming into the year, but the narrative has shifted, with some favoring Ja’Marr Chase.
I don’t have a strong take in either direction, but I will say that you need to dig deeper than raw box-score numbers. Comparing Chase’s fourth season with a QB with whom he shared a college locker room with to Jefferson’s first in an offense led by a quarterback that the NFL was close to giving up on just isn’t an apples-to-apples situation.
Tyler Lockett, WR
The Seahawks often play in the late window, and that opens me up to seeing a higher percentage of their offensive snaps than an East Coast team that routinely plays in that crowded first wave of games.
I watch games with an advanced database in front of me, one that deprioritizes standard stats in favor of more detailed metrics. I love it, but as a result, I can lose track of the counting numbers in-game. It feels like, more weeks than not, Tyler Lockett will make an impactful play that grades out well and it sticks out in my mind. I think he’s still a reasonable piece to have on an NFL offense. But the target-earning abilities are all but gone, and we are in the business of chasing volume.
Lockett doesn’t have a five-target game on his résumé since mid-October, and Week 9 was his last top-65 PPR finish. He might make a play or two this weekend against an aggressive Vikings defense that is likely to put him in single coverage, but you’re asking for far too much if you’re considering him as a worthwhile Flex option.
This is a DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba-led passing attack that doesn’t have the desire to get a third party involved consistently.
DK Metcalf, WR
DK Metcalf was on the field for 92.9% of Seattle’s snaps on Sunday night but saw just 27 air yards worth of targets, the second-lowest mark of his career. He’s been able to earn looks while Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaks out (6.5 targets per game over his past six), and in the past, that would be enough.
But, I’m not sure if you’ve heard, we live in the present, not the past.
Over that six-game run, Metcalf has been targeted on just 12.5% of his red-zone routes. For some context, he’s never had a season check in under 32% in that metric — this is where, historically, he’s paid the fantasy bills.
Geno Smith (he and Jameis Winston are tied for the most end-zone interceptions thrown this season with four — Smith had three in his career before this year) isn’t quite struggling like Kirk Cousins right now. In a vacuum, I’d take Metcalf over Drake London, but both of those receivers currently have a floor that I would have labeled as illogical two short months ago.
Smith’s knee injury should also be considered in this matchup, in which he is going to be asked to shift quickly. I’m not saying you bench Metcalf for any receiver on your bench with a pulse, but I’d be considering all options — he’s outside of my top 20 at the position this week, ranking alongside other struggling players like Jaylen Waddle and Deebo Samuel.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
It’s official. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has arrived.
You might assume that it is because he is WR4 on a per-game basis since Week 9 (21.4 PPG, ranking ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua over that stretch). You might assume that it is because he has a touchdown or 10 catches in four of his past five games.
I’m not saying those reasons are wrong, they just aren’t right.
As you might assume, we watch a lot of sports in the Soppe household. To call my wife a passive observer would very much be underselling the word “passive,” but whatever, she’s there for a lot of it.
She can now properly pronounce Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
That’s a surefire sign of stardom. This happened years ago with Giannis Antetokounmpo and she’s gotten there with Shohei Ohtani. And now, Smith-Njigba.
During that Week 9-15 window mentioned above, JSN has an on-field target share that is 5.7 percentage points greater than that of DK Metcalf and a red-zone target rate that is nearly triple of Seattle’s former WR1.
Yea, I did it. I went there. This is the Smith-Njigba show, and I don’t see that changing against a defense that is going to force Geno Smith to make decisions in a hurry.
T.J. Hockenson, TE
With each passing week and the postseason an inevitability, the Vikings are best served to see if their star tight end can approach elite form. T.J. Hockenson’s snap share has gradually moved in the right direction after a November ramp-up, and I have no problem in labeling him as the pass catcher on this roster I trust most to fit the complementary role next to Justin Jefferson.
Jordan Addison has been great and carries more per-target upside than Hockenson, I don’t think that’s debatable, but the postseason can be as much about not beating yourself as it is about outright winning games. In that regard, I like what a fully involved Hockenson offers this offense.
The more that Minnesota puts on his plate, the better for fantasy managers. A short week here and then a west-to-east travel situation before your fantasy Super Bowl isn’t ideal, but I’ve got Hock locked into my top five at the position.
