The New York Giants will face the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Giants and Falcons skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Drew Lock, QB
A heel injury kept Drew Lock out of last week’s loss to the Ravens but he will be back under center in Week 16.
For our purposes, the season is, and has been, over. In his five appearances this season, Lock has completed just 51.1% of his passes, and over the past four seasons, he has more interceptions (22) than touchdown passes (21).
Michael Penix Jr., QB
Michael Penix Jr., the eighth overall pick in April, will make his starting debut this weekend with the postseason hopes of this franchise on his shoulders.
It’s a soft landing spot (bottom-five in interception rate, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and passer rating), but that doesn’t mean that you blindly start a rookie with your fantasy season on the line.
Realistically, I’m not changing much in terms of my rankings for Week 16 because we simply don’t know what to expect. Bijan Robinson and Drake London remain starters in all formats while Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts are outside of my comfort zone.
Tyler Allgeier, RB
Kirk Cousins’ struggles have made this a chance to set up the running offense, a style of playcalling that I think we very well could see for a second consecutive week with the lowly Giants coming to town for Michael Penix Jr.’s debut
That said, Tyler Allgeier ran 12 times for 43 yards against the Raiders in that script. That’s it. He’s seen just two balls thrown his way over the past seven games; with Bijan Robinson as the featured back more often than not in scoring situations, there really isn’t much of a path for Allgeier to offer much for fantasy purposes.
I’m comfortable cutting most players without a fantasy-relevant role at this point, but Allgeier is the exception. With the Commanders and the Panthers left on the books, if you play through Week 18, I’m keeping Atlanta’s handcuff until this season concludes. I don’t think he holds stand-alone value this week or any of the next two, but he’s a Robinson rolled ankle away from being a top-15 RB for a team in the playoff mix.
Bijan Robinson, RB
Bijan Robinson ran for a season-high 125 yards last week against the Raiders and has at least 22 carries in back-to-back-to-back games (he didn’t have a single such game previously this season).
If you gave me Robinson’s role OR volume, I’d be talking him up as an RB1, the fact that we get both is what league championships are made of, especially when facing the third-worst rush defense by EPA.
I don’t love his four targets netting just 19 yards over the past two weeks, but I’m willing to acknowledge that we can’t have everything. I prefer Saquon Barkley’s offensive environment and Jahmyr Gibbs’ situations sans David Montgomery, but that’s it at the running back position for this week, for the rest of this season, and potentially for the next handful of years.
Devin Singletary, RB
Devin Singletary got New York’s second carry last week, but that didn’t prove to be predictive of a heavy workload as he extended his streak of single-digit carry games to eight straight.
The veteran’s usage is more annoying to Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s managers than impactful otherwise. His 35% snap share from last week was his highest since Week 8 and still isn’t really enough to dent fantasy lineups. His two red-zone touches on Sunday were one more than he had in his previous seven games combined, so it’s something that I’m tracking but not something I’m overreacting to from a single game as a 16-point underdog.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is basically doubling Devin Singletary in snaps these days, and while he’s been able to outrun his veteran backfield mate to a degree, he’s been unable to outrun the general stench of this offensive environment.
Over the past two weeks, Tracy has fewer PPR fantasy points than was expected in Week 14 alone (cumulative: 35.3% below expectations). It’s been more than a month since his last 20-yard touch, and with touchdowns the only thing saving him recently from his inefficiency, you’re walking a thin line if you’re counting on this offense to frequent the red zone.
We are looking at more of a Flex play in Tracy these days than the RB2 we had hoped he’d be, but at least his reasonable volume should stabilize him from falling any further against the 10th-worst run defense in terms of success rate this season.
Drake London, WR
Drake London hauled in a 30-yard touchdown on Monday night, the longest pass (23 air yards) resulting in a score during his young career. It was a good thing he got on the board early — after another Kirk Cousins interception, the Falcons committed essentially to the football equivalent of the four-corners offense: 37 rush attempts against 17 passes.
Atlanta was able to get away with the game plan because of an inferior opponent, and while I don’t think that’s a sticky offensive game plan in 2024, it could last another week with the Falcons opening as a 10-point favorite against the Giants.
I expect this offensive structure to tank the value of Darnell Mooney more than London, but there’s no overlooking the risk that is present given Cousins’ struggles. London is currently a low-end WR2 for me this week, checking ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. — yes, I’m drawing the line at Mac Jones when it comes to QBs I trust more than Cousins right now.
Darnell Mooney, WR
How does it feel to be a Darnell Mooney manager? It’s the full range of emotions. He’s basically like one of those sappy RomComs — you know the ups and downs are going to be a part of a ride that ultimately ends where you expected.
- There are only three receivers with more games of 85 receiving yards and a TD catch than Mooney this season (Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb)
- There are only three viable fantasy receivers with more games turning over 20 routes into under 30 receiving yards than Mooney this season (Elijah Moore, Xavier Worthy, and Deebo Samuel Sr.)
Over his past nine games, Mooney is averaging 3.7 catches with a touchdown reception once every 4.5 contests. During his four seasons in Chicago, he was good for 3.6 grabs per game with a TD once every 4.9 games. RomCom Mooney is ending his season exactly like we thought — it’s been a weird ride, but here we are, in a spot where, like in the preseason, we aren’t excited about counting on him.
Malik Nabers, WR
Science has their nature/nurture debates. We, as fantasy managers who deal with similarly important arguments, have fought with the talent/situation thing for years now. I don’t think we have any more clarity today than we did at the beginning of the season.
I was firmly in the “I’ll be a year late on Malik Nabers instead of investing at the peak levels of excitement” camp. Have I been right? Wrong? Neither?
Despite being targeted 10+ times in six of his past seven games, Malik Nabers doesn’t have a 100-yard game since September. Over that stretch, on a per-game basis, he ranks no worse than seventh in routes, targets, and catches. Yet, he has only a single weekly finish better than WR24 during that run.
All of that work and Devaughn Vele has more finishes inside the top 24 producers at the position. All due respect to the Vele family, but come on.
Nabers’ production with Daniel Jones, 2024:
- 1.5 fantasy points per target
- 2.2 yards per route
- 10.5 aDOT
- 33% on-field target share
Nabers’ production without Daniel Jones in Week 15:
- 1.3 fantasy points per target
- 1.8 yards per route
- 8.8 aDOT
- 29.1% on-field target share
As a collective, the Giants are averaging 5.7 yards per pass this season. That puts them on track to post the fourth-worst rate over the past decade. I see no reason to think it improves in a meaningful way over the final few weeks.
In the rare instances that New York threatens, Nabers gets the dangerous looks. He checks literally every box you could ask and it really hasn’t mattered. I could tell you that the Falcons are a bottom-two defense in sack rate, pass touchdown percentage, and completion rate, but why would I trust this Giants offense to pay off this good spot?
You’re going to start him and bet on his talent, something I understand. I have Nabers ranked as a low-end WR2, understanding that he isn’t the only strong receiver with QB issues (Jerry Jeudy and Brian Thomas feel a similar pain).
But I ask you — was my preseason take on Nabers right?
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR
Wan’Dale Robinson is a valuable piece in the right situation. To be maximized in the scope of the NFL, he needs to play with a quarterback that garners downfield respect. For fantasy purposes, he needs that in addition to being on a team with at least average scoring expectations.
Neither is the case for the current version of the New York Giants.
Week 5 was Robinson’s last top-30 finish, and it’s pretty difficult to see that changing any time soon. I believe in his ability to win with a quick route, but that’s kind of like being the best barber in a town full of bald people — does it really matter?
Robinson is the type of player I hold on my roster as a bye-week filler, situations in which I’m OK with a limited ceiling and will chase 10 PPR points. There’s a time for that, it’s just not the fantasy playoffs.
Darius Slayton, WR
Darius Slayton had a moment earlier in the season with Malik Nabers sidelined. However, that was ages ago, and it’s simply neglect if you’ve yet to rid your roster of him at this point.
That’s not me saying that Slayton is a bad player or not capable of making splash plays. He’s just not at all in a spot to mean much in our game.
Slayton hasn’t cleared 10 expected points since the beginning of November and has managed just five receptions of his 15 targets over the past month. To make my lineup at this point in the season, I need to be able to talk myself into passable quality and quantity in the target department.
I can’t get there in either regard for Slayton in this excuse of an offense.
Kyle Pitts, TE
Disaster. Bust. Waste of my time.
I hear of these things weekly and, more often than not, it feels accurate. There’s nothing in Kyle Pitts’ production profile that suggests that his physical tools are going to be unlocked at the right time.
That said, would you believe me if I told you that, through 15 weeks, he is one of five tight ends with a four-game streak of double-digit PPR performances (Weeks 5-8)? The other names on that list are universally trusted at this point (Trey McBride, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Jonnu Smith), but the dots just haven’t connected.
It’s crazy that Pitts’ name is on the list. That’s kind of like me asking you to guess which two QBs drafted in 2021, 2022, or 2023 have at least three top-10 fantasy finishes this season.
The answers are Brock Purdy and … Anthony Richardson, the quarterback equivalent to Pitts.
Richardson and Pitts are the Spiderman meme for me — the idea of that player holding upside makes plenty of sense, but the idea of counting on either with my season on the line is nauseating.
