We have reached the point of the NFL season where fantasy football managers have to have their wits about them. The games come thick and fast, and there can be serious weather implications to be aware of when deciding on starting lineups.
Week 16 sees four game days, with the second one being a Saturday doubleheader. With both games being played outdoors, should fantasy managers be concerned about their fantasy options taking to the field in Kansas City and Baltimore?
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Saturday Week 16 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 3 p.m. ET on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Mid-30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5 mph southerly
There is no getting around the fact it is going to be chilly in Kansas City. The temperatures are going to be right around freezing, so while we are not talking about the arctic sub-zero temperatures of their January playoff game against the Miami Dolphins, we are still talking about temperatures that could impact the game somewhat.
However, with no rain forecast and very few wind concerns, the potential impact of these temperatures is minimal. Over the past 10 years, games played with temperatures at kickoff between 30 and 40 Fahrenheit have seen around a 5% drop in fantasy output compared to those played in domes or warmer climates.
When you then filter out the games being played in wind speeds above 10 mph and/or with rain falling, the drop becomes slightly less than 5%. Ultimately, fantasy managers should have very few concerns about the game being played in Kansas City.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens Weather
- Kickoff: 4:30 p.m.
- Expected Temperature: Mid-30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 16 mph northerly with gusts up to 30 mph
We will also see some cold weather in Baltimore for the AFC North battle between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens. However, this game will also see sustained wind speeds in excess of 15 mph and gusts up to the 30 mph region.
Games played in these temperatures, with wind speeds at kickoff over 15 mph, have historically seen an average drop of around 15%. That number would plummet if rain was also forecast, so fantasy managers should be grateful that is not the case.
In terms of the impact on fantasy output, the majority of that comes from the passing and kicking game. The passing game output drops by around 20-25%, while kicks between 40 and 49 yards have only been made at a 57.1% rate in those games. Therefore, you may want to consider avoiding the kicking games, especially given the struggles we have seen from Justin Tucker this season.
The run game still sees an average of 16 fantasy points per game (per team), which is a slight drop compared to other conditions but not as badly impacted as the passing game. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson should still have plenty of value between them in this game, but a quarterback like Russell Wilson is perhaps better avoided. The Steelers’ run game is a bit of an enigma, so fantasy managers should be wary.
