The Cleveland Browns will face the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Browns skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB
Dorian Thompson-Robinson got a chance to impress earlier this season, and…well, he failed.
Against the woeful Bengals defense, DTR completed just 11 of 24 passes for 82 yards and two interceptions. In that loss, he did pick up 44 yards on the ground, and if you’re going to be in any capacity on him in the rematch, his athleticism will have to factor in.
Cleveland’s offense will look very different from the overly aggressive stylings of Jameis Winston. While that might mean fewer turnovers, I expect fewer scoring chances, which drags down the projectable value of all involved.
Jameis Winston, QB
Jameis Winston has been benched and all excitement for Cleveland’s skill players goes with him. While it’s the less fun option, there’s no denying that the move is a logical one.
- Week 12 vs. Steelers: 2.4 points per drive
- Week 13 at Broncos: 2.1 points per drive
- Week 14 at Steelers: 1.2 points per drive
- Week 15 vs. Chiefs: 0.5 points per drive
Dorian Thompson-Robinson takes over under center and will look to keep the Browns’ offense on the field in an effort to shorten the game against the explosive Bengals.
Jerome Ford, RB
Jerome Ford, welcome back into our lives!
He took over for Nick Chubb last week and turned nine touches into 104 yards, highlighted by a 62-yard touchdown. We aren’t going to get anything close to that level of efficiency moving forward, but a versatile skill set is awfully appealing next to a conservative backup quarterback.
The Bengals are the eighth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, and I expect them to see a heavy dosage of this feisty 25-year-old. When injury reports are finalized, I expect to have Ford ranked as an RB2, not bad for someone who very possibly was on your waiver wire entering this week.
Nick Chubb, RB
Nick Chubb broke his foot over the weekend, bringing to a close what has been a lost season for anyone who rolled the dice on him off of last season’s knee injury (3.3 yards per carry).
The team doesn’t expect this injury to require surgery, and that’s good news, but we are firmly in a spot where we will need to see more than him squatting a small village to reinvest this summer with the injuries piling up on a soon-to-be 29-year-old body that has north of 1,500 NFL touches.
Cedric Tillman, WR
Week 18 Status: OUT
The Browns are “hopeful” that Cedric Tillman can return from a concussion that has resulted in three missed games, but I can’t imagine a situation in which you’re rolling the dice on a player like this in an offense that went from recklessly aggressive to mind-numbingly conservative with their change under center.
Tillman racked up 81 yards in the first meeting with the vulnerable Bengals, and we know this secondary can be had. That’s not the point. The point is that I’m not risking three months of hard work to reach the playoffs on a receiver who might hopefully be healthy in the WR3 role for an offense on a dead team and an underwhelming QB.
Other than that, I don’t have anything wrong with Tillman in Week 16.
Elijah Moore, WR
DFS play of the week?
It’s possible. Elijah Moore is pretty clearly the underneath option in this Cleveland offense, and that role has spiked in value over the last two weeks.
First of all, the matchup. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t good nor are they even really trending in a great direction, but they are at least forcing the opposition to check down. Twice in the past three weeks, the Bengals have seen their opponent’s average depth of throw check in under 5.5 yards (through 12 weeks, they had an opponent aDOT under 6.4 yards just once).
The change under center also puts food on Moore’s plate. The food might not be fully cooked, but at least it’s there, and that gives him a chance to eat. Since the beginning of last season, the Browns have had three different quarterbacks appear in at least 10 games:
- Deshaun Watson: 81.4 passer rating, 3.1% TD rate, and 8.2 aDOT
- Jameis Winston: 80.6 passer rating, 4.4% TD rate, and 8.9 aDOT
- Thompson-Robinson: 42.6 passer rating, 0.7% TD rate, and 6.0 aDOT
Moore has been close to invisible in three of his past four games, and that could well be the case again this week, but I bumped him inside of my top 50 at the position (and on my DFS WR punt radar) on Tuesday when the quarterback change became official.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jerry Jeudy has cleared 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, riding the Jameis Winston momentum to seven straight games with either 70 yards or a touchdown.
I like how that sounds and the fruit that it has given us recently, but reporting out of Cleveland has Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over this offense. That introduces similar weekly risk without the benefit of the high-end ceiling.
DTR only has 146 NFL passes on his résumé, but a 6.0 career aDOT is downright problematic for a player like Jeudy that can win down the field. This change under center shook up my expectations for this passing game. I had Jeudy as the clear-cut top option with David Njoku (if active) a clear No. 2 and Elijah Moore a distant third.
Now, Njoku is a unique case because of the position he plays, and while I still prefer Jeudy to Moore, he’s no longer to be looked at as a lineup lock.
If you’re starting any Brown this week, it’s a play against the fourth-worst points-per-drive defense more than anything, and that’s a reasonable angle to take.
David Njoku, TE
Week 18 Status: PLACED ON INJURED RESERVE
David Njoku couldn’t practice all week due to a hamstring injury, and while the team kept him listed as “questionable” up until Sunday, he seemed like a long shot to play all long.
His practice habits this week will again be worth monitoring, especially with this a lost season for the Browns. They need all of their key options healthy to open next season as they (presumably) intend to go back to the well-compensated Deshaun Watson under center.
That said, if Njoku clears the health hurdles, you play him and feel good about it. He lit up this vulnerable Bengals defense back in Week 7 (10-76-1 on a 29.2% target share). With three top-five finishes at the position over his last four games, the athletic profile he provides this passing game with is worthy of lineup-lock status.