The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Houston Texans in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes II, QB
Before the injury, Patrick Mahomes II was just 3-of-8 against the blitz against the Browns (37.5% completion rate, his worst game of the season with at least five passes thrown in such spots). The Chiefs have their eye on the playoffs, so I’m not expecting an aggressive version of Mahomes should he suit up this week, leaving me in a position to recommend you plan around a different option if you’d otherwise look Mahomes’ way.
The box score could have looked a little better last week if a sideways pass is ruled to be forward, but such is life in this low-octane attack. Mahomes is a player that no team wants to face in the postseason and no fantasy team wants to play right now.
I’m plugging in Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold well ahead of him right now and not thinking twice about it, even if he’s fully cleared.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Might Isiah Pacheco’s ability to prove his health be the determining factor in Kansas City earning the No. 1 seed? It’s possible. Patrick Mahomes seems to be iffy and, regardless of his status, this team is likely to count more on its bellcow as he rounds into midseason form.
The Texans own the fifth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, thus giving them a chance to bail you out with a score (or two?) if his efficiency continues to lag (3.9 yards per carry this season). I have zero reservations about considering the angriest running back in the league as a solid RB2 across the board.
Kareem Hunt, RB
I find it unlikely that you start Kareem Hunt moving forward, but the idea of stashing him is at least viable. He and Isiah Pacheco split 26 carries down the middle last week in Cleveland, and if Patrick Mahomes misses time, this offense could shift to a high-rush-rate unit to finish out their chase for the AFC’s top overall seed.
There’s not much of a path for Hunt to usurp Pacheco; if Mahomes does sit, he takes some scoring equity with him, and that’s why Hunt won’t grace my top 30 this week.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
If you’re of a certain age, the name “DeAndre Hopkins” holds theoretical value, but that’s about it for the fantasy playoffs.
Patrick Mahomes has been under center for the past two weeks and yet Hopkins has turned 15 targets into just 78 yards, a level of efficiency that is troubling on many levels. The raw volume is good to see (one target every 3.3 routes in those two games), but if that falls off the table, a truly low floor — with Mahomes active — presents itself.
Without Mahomes?
The fact is, we don’t know what “without Mahomes” looks like. What we do know is that this team wasn’t relying on its passing attack to put it in position for the AFC’s top seed with one of the best QBs in the history of the earth on the roster … is Andy Reid just waiting for Carson Wentz to unleash things?
I doubt it.
I didn’t think we’d be looking at playoff decisions where I’d pick Jalen McMillan over Hopkins, but that’s where I’m at.
Hollywood Brown, WR
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported over the weekend that Hollywood Brown would be “likely to return during the regular season” from his SC joint injury that has delayed his debut with the team up to this point.
That’s interesting but unlikely to be impactful for our purposes. That’s not to say that he can’t be of service during Kansas City’s pursuit of a third straight championship, but asking the team to overextend him in short order is far too optimistic for my liking.
As a player, Brown carries an obvious upside. I mean, would they let him change his name to “Hollywood” if he didn’t? He caught at least six touchdown passes in all three of his seasons with the Ravens, and while his time with the Cardinals wasn’t fantasy-friendly, he did clear 16 PPR points in three of his first five games.
All of that said, I don’t think we can assume that he fits this offense like a glove before we get a proof of concept. Brown’s production relative to expectation has declined each season of his career; my feeling here is that any usage over the next three weeks will be more of a tune-up than a full reveal.
Brown’s production relative to PPR expectation by season:
- 2019 (Ravens): +19%
- 2020 (Ravens): +6.2%
- 2021 (Ravens): -9.2%
- 2022 (Cardinals): -12.2%
- 2023 (Cardinals): -21.9%
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been hovering in the 50-57% snap share rate for a month now, and although he got into the end zone last week, this is lining up for a player who will be more impactful as Kansas City tries to navigate a third straight postseason than anything of use to us.
Since returning from injury, Smith-Schuster’s 109 routes have yielded just nine targets and 62 yards. My lack of interest in his profile has nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes’ injury — this isn’t a player you need to roster in any format.
Xavier Worthy, WR
The trajectory of Xavier Worthy is exactly what you’d want, but the Patrick Mahomes injury obviously complicates things for a receiver who wasn’t consistent in the first place. If we are to assume that QB1 sits, I don’t think you can justify going this way with any level of confidence (he’s yet to score 12 PPR points in consecutive games and has five performances where he gave you under six points).
Asking him to produce in a tough team spot against the defense that owns the lowest opponent passer rating is a bridge I’m not willing to cross.
For those of you who are reading this despite being dead in your playoff league, thank you! When looking forward, Worthy has four straight games with double-digit expected PPR points, and that’s one more than he had through the first 11 weeks of his career. Rookie receivers often require patience. You’ll be just fine to go into 2025 with confidence in the Worthy profile, potentially at a discount if your leaguemates are just looking at raw numbers.
Travis Kelce, TE
By normal human standards, a 100-catch pace with TE1 production in nearly 40% of games would be plenty, but Travis Kelce isn’t held to “normal human standards.” Expectations aside, we are in the much feared turn-into-a-pumpkin zone.
- 2023: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
- 2022: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
Kelce scored twice in Week 15 of 2021 against the Chargers — he hasn’t caught a touchdown in December since. I know that because I’m a fantasy nerd. I doubt the Chiefs are aware of that fact because it hasn’t mattered in the least. It hasn’t stopped them from accomplishing their ultimate goal, and until this “ramp down to ramp up” thing fails, why would we expect it to change?
If Kelce were a receiver, we wouldn’t have an issue in benching him. The reason he is still in consideration is two-fold — it’s his résumé and the lack of reliable depth at the position.
I’ve got seven tight ends in the must-start bucket for this week and another eight in the next range that can be shuffled up in any order. Kelce is firmly in that second bucket, and if we are to assume that Patrick Mahomes sits, he shifts closer to the back end of that tier than the middle.
