The Miami Dolphins will face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Dolphins skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB
Tua Tagovailoa struggled last week, snapping a streak of three straight top-seven performances in the process. I do think we get a bit of a bounce-back week, in part because Miami returns home and in part because the 49ers have struggled to defend the red zone lately (13 straight TDs allowed before a few stops late last week).
My issue with committing in full and ranking Tagovailoa as the top pocket passer on this slate is the possession count. The Dolphins are the eighth slowest moving offense while the 49ers rank dead last. That gives a QB like Tagovailoa almost no room for error if ranked as a top-six QB, a projection I just can’t support.
He’s my QB10 this week, a starter in most formats and willing of a mulligan when it comes to last week.
De’Von Achane, RB
De’Von Achane is a prime example of why we hold versatility in such high regard. His efficiency as a rookie was off the charts, and while that is a nice outlet to have, it’s tough to make a living on something like that that can fade with time.
The second-year back has gone four straight games without a 15-yard rush, something that would have seemed impossible just 12 months ago. As disappointing as those struggles are, Achane’s fantasy managers haven’t blinked.
Over those four games, he’s pulled in 24 passes for 160 yards and three scores — he’s essentially been a viable receiver who happened to get a dozen carries per game.
As long as Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, this year and moving forward, you’re starting Achane and banking on top-10 production at the position.
Jaylen Wright, RB
It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June — he’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.
Raheem Mostert, RB
Raheem Mostert returned from a hip injury last week against the Texans and got nine touches, but nothing that resulted in a meaningful rise in his rest-of-season fantasy stock
The 21-touchdown season feels like a lifetime ago. We’ve seen a few star running backs be kicked to the curb by one team and thrive with another — don’t forget that there are two sides to that coin.
Every season we see fantasy RBs fall off a production cliff (whether it is the result of a role change, a decline in physical abilities, or otherwise), and that needs to be considered next season as some of the top-ranked running backs are going to have some tread on their tires.
Mostert doesn’t need to be rostered in any format, a decision that was effectively made for you around Halloween. Mostert is a great example of the value you can gain by reacting early to what teams are telling you via usage.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Following a Week 15 loss in which Jaylen Waddle (knee) missed the second half, Mike McDaniel said his WR2 avoided disaster and is to be considered day-to-day.
That’s the good news, but Waddle always seems to be one misstep from his afternoon ending early. That has to be considered by fantasy managers. For the season, his target rate (both overall and inside of the red zone) are pacing for a career low. That puts a lot of pressure on the few opportunities he does get, and that’s a problem against the defense that allows the fourth-fewest yards per completion.
I find it unlikely that you advanced this far in your fantasy league by counting on Waddle in a significant way, but if that’s the case, this is a home game and that, traditionally, means you at least have a path to getting a positive return on your investment. Since the start of last season, Waddle has cleared 13 PPR points in a game nine times and eight of them have come in front of the Dolphins’ faithful fans.
He’s not a top-30 play for me and ranks alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. when it comes to talented receivers that I’m more comfortable benching than starting in my fantasy playoffs.
Tyreek Hill, WR
All the vibes in Miami were good entering last week and then — nothing. Tyreek Hill was held without a catch in the first half of the loss to the Texans and posted his ninth finish this season outside of the 30 most valuable PPR receivers.
It obviously has been a far-from-ideal season situationally and burning an age-30 season is a problem. This offseason, we will be forced to determine if there was physical decline in Hill’s game, something that will be challenging given the limitations of this offense and an injury that has lingered.
That’s a problem for another day. When it comes to this week, however, I think your opinion of Hill hinges on how you think this game plays out. The Dolphins are home favorites and that’s never a bad place to start.
If you’re on board with them winning this game, your confidence should elevate him a good amount. This season, Hill’s aDOT is 16.1% lower when Miami is playing with a lead than when they are trailing, a trend I’m OK with weighing heavily in this matchup against the defense that ranks 18th in preventing YAC this season (17th over the past four weeks if you’re more concerned about recent form).
The Dolphins have a 24-point projection, and with Jaylen Waddle at less than full strength, you’re starting Hill.
I just provided that context to give you a little encouragement because who couldn’t use more of that this time of year?
Jonnu Smith, TE
Jonnu Smith is the sixth tight end since 2016 with at least 70 catches and six TDs through 15 weeks. In the scope of that list, only he and Travis Kelce were 29 years of age or older when accomplishing the feat — no matter how you split it, Miami’s veteran is having a helluva season.
His touchdown last week came on a rare Tua Tagovailoa scramble drill where he was unable to uncover on a fourth-down play. Every week he seems to find a different way to produce, and while the Dolphins’ postseason dreams are all but dead, I think their tight end can continue to help you chase yours.
Smith has posted five straight top-seven finishes at the position. I had him ranked as such last week, and he has entered my seven-man circle of trust at the position. You should feel fortunate to have him at your services as you chase glory.
