The New England Patriots will face the Buffalo Bills in Week 16. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Patriots skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 16 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Drake Maye, QB
Drake Maye has over 2.5 fantasy points as a runner with over 200 passing yards in four straight games. That has allowed him to establish a reasonable production floor with four top-15 finishes over his past five games but hasn’t resulted in much of a ceiling (one top 10).
There are weekly flashes to get excited about long term. Last week, Maye completed all 10 of his first-half passes and, late in the game, had a scrambling weird flip pass to DeMario Douglas in the end zone.
That play looked like something that Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes would do. No, he’s not on that level and probably never will be, but it’s clear who he modeled his game after, and that gives him interesting upside as a punt QB option when you draft this summer, especially if the Pats can add some talent around him.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Rhamondre Stevenson is the football equivalent of the BRAT diet: simple, unexciting, and something that can make you feel OK when your stomach is upset.
In this case, our “stomach” is our fantasy backfield. Nothing he does is exciting (at least 15% of his carries have failed to gain yardage in eight straight games), but there are only four running backs this season with more 20-carry, one-catch games than New England’s featured back (Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, and Kyren Williams).
Stevenson hasn’t finished better than RB18 since doing so in Week 9. He could get there against the seventh-worst rush defense in terms of yards per carry before contact allowed to running backs, but even if he doesn’t, him sinking your lineup given his role is unlikely.
There’s value in that.
DeMario Douglas, WR
DeMario Douglas has reached 70 receiving yards just once this season, but there is some very low PPR Flex appeal here if you’re in a deeper format. The fact that he has caught 85.7% of his targets over the past three games is a step in the right direction, but more importantly, the Bills want him to produce.
OK, so that may be a bit strong, but Buffalo encourages opponents to take their medicine with the short passes (lowest opponent aDOT this season). The Patriots have been trailing for 61.3% of their offensive snaps this season (seventh highest rate), thus putting a player like Douglas in position to potentially see 6-8 targets.
It won’t be exciting, but a cheap way to double-digit PPR points is certainly within the reasonable range of outcomes.
Kendrick Bourne, WR
Kendrick Bourne has caught every pass thrown his way in three of his past four games. The small sample size of his 2024 season with Drake Maye is encouraging, but it’s not nearly enough to put him on fantasy radars.
I’m not betting on the Patriots’ offense if I can avoid it, but if I am going that avenue, it’s going to be in the middle of the field where the Bills funnel opposing pass games. Maybe Bourne will play a part in Maye’s long-term development, but we don’t need to worry about that right now.
Hunter Henry, TE
Despite an on-field target share trending up (22.1% over his past four games), it’s been more than two months since Hunter Henry found paydirt. Betting in any capacity for that to change this week with an implied team total struggling to reach 17 points is risky to say the least.
If the scoring equity is low, we need access to a ceiling in different ways, ways that are not available to Henry in this Drake Maye-led offense. In a game where the Patriots were behind for 85.7% of their offensive snaps and opposing a vulnerable Arizona defense, Henry recorded nine air yards.
Nine.
The Bills rank in the top 10 in YAC per reception and touchdown percentage to the tight end position, giving Henry far more risk than potential reward in this spot. Cut ties and move forward — Henry is not one of the two alliterative tight ends I have in my top 15 for Week 16.
