Throwing a few DFS lineups in for tonight’s Monday Night Football battle between the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers? Who should you be locking in for tonight’s Week 16 finale?
Week 16 MNF DFS Picks
- Captain: Josh Jacobs
- FLEX: Kendre Miller
- FLEX: Romeo Doubs
- FLEX: Tucker Kraft
- FLEX: Foster Moreau
- FLEX: Packers
MNF Lineup Lock: Josh Jacobs
In our eyes, Josh Jacobs is a must-play regardless of his $17K+ price tag. He’s just been that good lately.
Jacobs had nine touches in the first six minutes last Sunday night, tying him for the most such touches in a game during the 2000s. Guys. Let me repeat, NINE. It’s almost as if this team brought in the former Raider for a very distinct reason.
I still believe Jordan Love holds the key to unlocking a run through the NFC for this team, but balance would make that possible. Jacobs has four catches in three of his past five games, a level of versatility that locks him into the top 10 at the position — this matchup vaults him inside the top five.
Jacobs has 13 red-zone touches across his last two home games, and we could see more of the same with Green Bay heavily favored.
The Saints are a bottom-three defense against running backs in rush EPA (expected points added), success rate, and rush TD percentage. The Jacobs show will continue tonight against a middling Saints rush defense.
It’s Miller Time
With the Saints making an early “business decision” this season and shelving their star RB Alvin Kamara, we got some “I’m looking to shut down a running back with over $14 million left on his contract” vibes.
Kendre Miller, a third-round pick just a season ago, will get the chance to build on the nine carries for 46 yards that he put on film last weekend against the Washington Commanders.
This, of course, isn’t an ideal spot. The Packers own the seventh-best run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs and figure to be operating with a lead, something that could lead to a script that trends away from Miller (12 catches in 12 NFL appearances and 12.4 carries for every catch during his three seasons at TCU).
However, don’t let that scare you away, as Miller should be the focal point of the offense tonight as New Orleans tries to keep the ball out of Spencer Rattler’s hands.
Stacking Packers Pass Catchers
Tonight, our strategy is simple: Stack the Pack!
Now, with Jacobs absolutely dominating in the last six games, his price tag has hit a point that makes it extremely difficult to find room for him in our lineups. But…we did it.
It took playing a defense, which actually might be a sneaky goldmine, vs. the turnover-prone Rattler.
As you know, we love to “target targets” here in our DFS lineups, so let’s look at Green Bay’s ball dispersion from WK15:
Packers’ Week 15 participation rates, 2024:
- Tucker Kraft: 88.5% snaps, two targets, 25 air yards
- Christian Watson: 77% snaps, six targets, 95 air yards
- Romeo Doubs: 75.4% snaps, five targets, 88 air yards
- Jayden Reed: 60.7% snaps, six targets, two air yards
- Dontayvion Wicks: 45.9% snaps, two targets, three air yards
Doubs missed a pair of games while in concussion protocol but cleared all needed hurdles ahead of last week and showed out once he was let back on the field. The Packers showed no hesitation in rolling him out there as usual (Week 15: 75.4% snap share, 2024: 77.2%) and were rewarded in a big way.
Doubs earned five targets on his 25 routes, producing 19 PPR fantasy points and a game-sealing score in the process. He has Love’s trust in scoring situations, and there should be no shortage of those for the Packers tonight.
Kraft fell short of expectations last weekend (5.4 PPR points), but the process remains sound. He’s not part of the must-start tier at the position, but he’s in the mix for TE8 behind those locked-in seven — and it has very little to do with what he offers as a player.
Kraft ranks fourth amongst tight ends in percentage of team snaps played (86%). The Packers have scored 30+ points in four straight games. That Green Bay streak is the second longest in franchise history (who can forget the seven games of 1963?), and those two traits are enough to land you, with confidence, inside my top 12 at a position that lacks consistency.