Here we are, fantasy football fans. We’re officially in the home stretch of the 2024 NFL season. With teams all over the league fighting for division titles and playoff spots, we’re here to help YOU fight for the top spot in your next DFS tournament! Let’s jump into Sunday’s main slate.
Week 16 DFS (Sunday) NFL Picks
- QB: Josh Allen
- RB: Jerome Ford
- RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
- WR: Jalen Coker
- WR: Jakobi Meyers
- WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- TE: Hunter Henry
- FL: Sam LaPorta
- DEF: Bengals
All Aboard the MVP Train: Starting Josh Allen
Last Sunday, in Detroit, Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history with multiple passing TDs and multiple rushing TDs in consecutive games. Allen has been a top-two QB in three straight games and has finished as the top scorer at the position four times this season. He’s cleared 20 fantasy points in five of his past six games at home, and at this point, 20 points feels like a low expectation.
This is the first of two meetings with the New England Patriots over the next three weeks. If he’s going to finish this elite season with a fantasy Super Bowl-worthy performance, he’s going to have to solve this New England defense.
Sonic, the Blue Blur: Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs had “league winner” potential on his own merit, but with David Montgomery’s regular season coming to an end, this is a true wheels-up situation.
He turned nine carries into 87 yards in the Week 13 meeting with these Chicago Bears (21 carries for Montgomery), and the duo combined for 53 receiving yards in the narrow victory. It would be irresponsible to simply heap all of Montgomery’s usage onto Gibbs’ plate, so let’s not do that. How about we just label what the second year back is already doing as sustainable?
Is that fair?
Gibbs has been an RB1 in four of his past five games and could be the RB1 for the remainder of this season (and into next should Montgomery’s recovery lag).
JSN Szn Pt. 2
Team — we’re going back to the well. Last week we selected JSN as one of our lineup locks, and gosh darn it, we’re doing it again.
You might assume that it is because he has been the WR4 on a per-game basis since Week 9 (21.4 PPG, ranking ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua over that stretch). You might assume that it is because he has a touchdown or 10 catches in four of his past five games.
During that Week 9-15 window mentioned above, JSN has an on-field target share that is 5.7 percentage points greater than DK Metcalf’s and a red-zone target rate that is nearly triple that of Seattle’s former WR1.
We said it last week, and now we’ll say it again: this is the Smith-Njigba show, and we don’t see that changing against a defense that is going to force Geno Smith to make decisions in a hurry.
Stacking Tight Ends: Hunter Henry and Sam LaPorta
It’s been a bit of a journey for Sam LaPorta to get back here, but it’s safe to say that he’s back in the TE1 conversation. The budding star has earned at least six targets in five straight games and has now posted three straight top-10 finishes at the position.
I’m starting LaPorta wherever I have him and am not hesitating at paying for his services in a DFS setting if his ownership numbers come in soft against a vulnerable defense on short rest that is playing out the string. Especially at the low price of $4,700 — we’re locking him in.
As for Hunter Henry, this one is simple. We think the Buffalo Bills are going to score about 100 points against the Patriots this Sunday, which means: target Patriots players for “garbage-time” action, and do it for the cheap.
Henry costs $4,100 to slip into your lineup, and he’s had a 22.1% target share over his last four games. With the Patriots likely playing from behind in this game, we see no reason that Henry can’t soak up 6-8 targets.