Entering Week 16, there were four teams still in the mix for the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and Minnesota Vikings have all reeled off long win streaks this season and have separated themselves from the rest of the competition.
Let’s break down the No. 1 seed paths for the remaining teams hunting for the top seed.
What Is the Current NFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Picture?
Currently, the Lions hold the one seed due to their head-to-head win over the Vikings back in Week 7, along with a superior conference record.
The Lions and Vikings are the only teams that definitively control their own destiny. Detroit is guaranteed to earn the one seed if they win out, which includes a Week 18 home contest against Minnesota. The same can be said for the Vikings. It is very likely that we are going to be sitting in Week 18 and the No. 1 seed will be decided at the same time as the NFC North.
Philadelphia cannot pass Detroit on conference record if the Lions win out, so the Eagles need at least one Lions loss over the final two weeks.
With Detroit’s win this week, the Packers have been eliminated from No. 1 seed contention.
What Is the Detroit Lions’ Path to the No. 1 Seed?
The Lions have the most straightforward path: win their final two games, and they’ll have home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.
Any tie with the Vikings will earn the Lions the division. The reasoning for that:
- If the Lions match or pass the Vikings by record with a Week 18 win, they’ll win the head-to-head tiebreaker (beat Minnesota in Week 7 as well)
- If the Lions and Vikings each finish 14-3 with Minnesota winning the Week 18 rematch, both teams would be 5-1 in the division but Detroit would have the superior record in common games (12-0 vs. 10-2)
- If the Lions and Vikings each finish 13-4 with Minnesota winning the Week 18 rematch, both teams would be 4-2 in the division but Detroit would have the superior record in common games (11-1 vs. 9-3)
If the Lions win the NFC North, they’d win any tie with the Eagles because they are guaranteed to finish with a better conference record if the teams have the same final record.
MORE: Simulate the Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor
The Lions are 9-1 in conference games, compared to 7-3 for the Eagles. Both teams play only conference opponents in their final three games, so the Eagles cannot match the Lions in conference record without passing Detroit in overall record (which would obviously render the tiebreaker moot).
The Lions have already swept the Packers and own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Green Bay.
What Is the Philadelphia Eagles’ Path to the No. 1 Seed?
As mentioned in the Lions section, the Eagles cannot win any head-to-head tiebreaker with Detroit, so Philly will be rooting for both Detroit and Minnesota to drop a game in Week 17 or for the Vikings to be the NFC North team that wins out.
Basically what the Eagles need is:
- Lions to go 0-2 or 0-1-1
- Vikings to go 1-1 or 0-1-1
Next week, the Lions faceoff against the 49ers in San Francisco and the Vikings are at home against Green Bay.
If the Eagles and Vikings finish in a two-way tie for the best record in the NFC, here’s how the tiebreakers are shaping up:
- IF BOTH 14-3: Both would finish 9-3 in the conference. It would come down to the common-opponents tiebreaker, where both are currently 4-1 with one common game left to play. Here’s how those scenarios break down:
- IF MIN beats GB and PHI beats NYG: Both 5-1 in common games, goes to the strength of victory tiebreaker
- IF MIN beats GB and PHI loses to NYG: the Vikings win the tiebreaker due to being 5-1 in common games vs. 4-2 for the Eagles
- IF MIN loses to GB and PHI beats NYG: the Eagles win the tiebreaker due to being 5-1 in common games vs. 4-2 for the Vikings
- IF MIN loses to GB and PHI loses to NYG: Both 4-2 in common games, goes to the strength-of-victory tiebreaker
Note: the logic for the myriad of 14-3 tiebreakers applies if the Vikings and Eagles both finish tied for the best record at 13-4 or 13-3-1.
What Is the Minnesota Vikings’ Path to the No. 1 Seed?
Minnesota controls its own destiny for the NFC North title. If the Vikings win their final two games, they’ll finish a game ahead of the Lions. Minnesota’s only path to the NFC North title is by finishing with a better record than Detroit.
As mentioned throughout the Eagles section, the Vikings are at a slight disadvantage if they finish tied with Philadelphia for the best record due to the current state of their strength-of-victory tiebreaker. However, a win over the Lions alone would add at least 13 victories to their strength-of-victory tally, potentially flipping that in Minnesota’s favor.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
