Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos have been one of the most surprising stories of the 2024 NFL season. After a rough 0-2 start that saw Nix look out of his depth, the first-round QB has led the Broncos to a 9-5 record and posted far better numbers after his slow start.
Entering the Broncos’ Week 16 Thursday night showdown vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, we take a look at Nix’s odds for winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and his case for the award.
What Are Bo Nix’s Odds To Win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Nix has the second-best odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is the significant favorite to win the award. Only four players have 100-to-1 odds or better entering Week 16.
Shortest Odds To Win Offensive Rookie of the Year Entering Week 16
- Jayden Daniels: -1000
- Bo Nix: +650
- Brock Bowers: +1000
- Brian Thomas Jr.: +10000
Does Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels Have a Stronger Offensive Rookie of the Year Case?
By season-long metrics, there isn’t much of a debate here. Daniels has the much stronger profile, ranking fifth in EPA per dropback (0.16) and eighth in PFN’s QB+ metric (86.1). By contrast, Nix ranks 24th in EPA per dropback (-0.04) and 25th in QB+ (69.5) entering Week 16.
However, their performance has been much more even since Daniels suffered a rib injury early in Week 7 vs. the Carolina Panthers. While the Commanders’ rookie didn’t miss a game due to the injury, his performance suffered. Conversely, Nix has played much better in that time frame, with the notable exception of last week’s debacle vs. the Indianapolis Colts.
Since Week 8, Nix is averaging 0.08 EPA per dropback, compared to 0.07 for Daniels. However, Daniels has outperformed Nix by EPA per dropback in four of the seven games that both have played since Week 8.
Obviously, the award is for a season-long performance. Daniels outperforming Nix by such a massive margin over the first six weeks gives him an enormous cushion. Nix made up much of that ground prior to Denver’s Week 14 bye, but a shaky outing against the Colts set him back.
Nix playing Daniels even for the second half of the season is a testament to his progression, but that alone won’t be enough for the Broncos quarterback to win the award. To do so, he’ll need two scenarios to occur over the final three weeks.
First off, it would help if he increased the gap between himself and Daniels for the “since Week 8” split. The Broncos have games remaining against the Chargers (eighth in PFN’s Defense+ rankings), Cincinnati Bengals (30th), and Kansas City Chiefs (10th). The Commanders have a similarly shaped schedule of defenses against the Philadelphia Eagles (second), Atlanta Falcons (28th), and Dallas Cowboys (19th).
If Nix can show out against a pair of top-10 defenses in the Chargers and Chiefs while Daniels struggles against the Eagles, that would aid his case in making up some ground.
In addition, Denver is up to an 85.2% chance to make the playoffs per PFN’s Playoff Predictor, while Washington is slightly lower at 64.8%. If the Commanders were to fall out of the playoff race — this would most likely entail both the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks winning their next two games to enter their Week 18 showdown at 10-6 each — that would help Nix’s case as well.
However, while team success typically plays some role in these awards, it’s not as prominent for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Four of the last six winners dating back to 2018 have been on non-playoff teams, with C.J. Stroud (2023) and Ja’Marr Chase (2021) the only exceptions.
Nix isn’t out of the race and has made this far more competitive after it appeared Daniels would cruise in October. But with just three weeks remaining, he still has significant ground to make up for the award.
