Whether you’re setting your fantasy football lineups or you need just a bit more information before getting in on the NFL betting action at your favorite sportsbook, we’ve got you covered here at Pro Football Network with the most important stats, notes, and insights for every NFL matchup in Week 17.
We all know how time-consuming gathering all the information can be, which is why we’re doing the research for you so you don’t have to.
All stats are from TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (Wednesday)
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs are one of 32 teams in the NFL (3.1%) – they have accounted for 13.3% of the 5+ game win streaks since the start of 2022.
QB: Patrick Mahomes recorded the longest touchdown run of his career on Saturday (15 yards) and now has a 10+ yard carry in three straight games for the first time in the regular season since Weeks 1-4 last year.
Offense: Saturday was the third time this season in which they averaged 3+ points per drive (they had three such games last regular season as well).
Defense: Kansas City has allowed under 20 points in four straight games, their third-longest streak since 2016.
Fantasy: It’s been a struggle for Isiah Pacheco of late, but it hasn’t been all his fault – 0.44 yards per carry before contact over his past three games.
Betting: Since 2022, unders are 8-1 when the Chiefs play on short rest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Team: From Week 9 of 2022 through Week 2 of this season, the Steelers had one losing streak – they’ve had two since.
QB: George Pickens missed three straight games, and in those contests, Russell Wilson was 10-of-26 with one touchdown and one interception when pressured (two games prior: 14-of-24 with three scores and zero picks).
Offense: Pittsburgh has turned the ball over on 7.2% of their drives at home this season (road: 9.1%).
Defense: The Steelers have allowed 7.7 yards per pass since Week 12 (Weeks 1-11: 6.9). They are 8-0 this season, when allowing under 29 yards per drive (2-5 otherwise).
Fantasy: Najee Harris has yet to reach 45 rushing yards in a loss this season and has just seven receiving yards over his past three games (two targets earned).
Betting: Since 2005, the Steelers are 8-1 ATS on a short week in Week 15 or later (9-0 outright with a +130 point differential).
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (Wednesday)
Baltimore Ravens
Team: Since the start of the last regular season, no team has had more double-digit point wins than the Ravens.
QB: Lamar Jackson has set a career-high for touchdown passes in a season and now has tossed multiple scores in eight of his past nine games (three TD passes in his first three games this season).
Offense: Baltimore was 0-of-2 in terms of turning goal-to-go drives into touchdowns in Week 1 – they are 28-of-30 since
Defense: In Weeks 1-10, Baltimore allowed 7.9 yards per pass – that rate sits at 5.9 since.
Fantasy: Derrick Henry has failed to score a touchdown in four straight games, the first time he has done that since opening the 2018 season with six-in-a-row. Marcus Mariota led that Titans team in passing and Corey Davis in receiving – yea, it’s been a minute.
Betting: The Ravens blew out the Dolphins in Week 17 last season. Since then, they are 0-4 ATS on short rest, failing to cover by an average of 7.4 points in those games.
Houston Texans
Team: The Texans haven’t won a game in consecutive weeks since Weeks 5-6 (their wins in Week 13 and 15 were separated by their bye).
QB: C.J. Stroud has weapons around him, but the loss of Tank Dell is impactful in more ways than one.
- Yards Per Attempt with Dell: 8.0
- Yards Per Attempt without Dell: 7.0 (down 12.5%)
- Air Yards Per Non-Pressured Pass with Dell: 8.8
- Air Yards Per Non-Pressured Pass without Dell: 6.6 (down 25%)
- Deep Passer Rating with Dell: 107.4
- Deep Passer Rating without Dell: 90 (down 16.2%)
Offense: The vertical game this season simply hasn’t been clicking. In his first 19 games, Stroud didn’t throw an interception on 147 deep pass attempts – he has six INTs on 97 such attempts since.
Defense: Houston sits at 8-1 when holding opponents to a sub-40% conversion rate on third down (1-5 otherwise).
Fantasy: Dalton Schultz has scored at least 15 PPR points in two of his past three games and posted a 21.6% target share on Saturday against the Chiefs – his role could be as favorable this week as any up to this point given the matchup and injury to Dell.
Betting: Unders are 9-3-1 in Houston’s past 13 home games, most recently was Week 15’s 20-12 win over the Dolphins (closing total: 46.5 points).
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (Thursday)
Seattle Seahawks
Team: The Seahawks are 0-3 against the NFC North this season, allowing 27+ points in each of those losses (8-4 against everyone else with 27+ points allowed just three times).
QB: Geno Smith has been much more aggressive under pressure this season (8.1 aDOT) than last (6.4).
Offense: This Seattle offense was behind the eight-ball most of Week 16. Their average starting field position was their lowest of the year (their own 22.5-yard line).
Defense: The Seahawks allowed the Vikings to average 2.1 points per drive on Sunday, falling to 0-6 this season when they allow at least 1.9 points per drive.
Fantasy: All three of Kenneth Walker III’s career games with at least seven receptions have come this season (Weeks 5, 6, and 16). Fantasy managers can up his pass game projection in a significant way when you pencil in Seattle to lose – they are 1-9 when he sees at least five targets in a game.
Betting: Seattle has covered four straight road games, all coming by more than six points.
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears have lost nine straight this season with a rookie QB. If they lose their final two games, that will run their total to 11 straight — only twice in the 2000s has a team had a longer such streak in a single season (2017 Browns and 2001 Panthers)
QB: Caleb Williams has run for at least 27 yards in five of his past six games and has thrown for multiple scores in four of his past five (first 10 games: three multi-pass TD games)
Offense: The Bears averaged 39.4 yards of offense per drive on Sunday against the Lions, their second-highest rate of the season.
Defense: Chicago forced a punt on a season-low 10% of possessions last week against Detroit (three of their four lowest opponent punt rates have come since Week 11).
Fantasy: Williams has three games with 330+ passing yards and multiple passing scores – Andrew Luck is the only QB to have more such games as a rookie (four).
Betting: Overs are 8-4 in Chicago’s past 12 games played as an underdog on short rest.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (Saturday)
Los Angeles Chargers
Team: Thursday’s win was the second time in 32 days in which the Chargers won a game in which they allowed 27+ points and lost the turnover battle – the other 31 teams had done it five times up to that point.
QB: Justin Herbert’s aggression seems to be fading. After posting a 10.1-yard average depth of throw against the Chiefs in Week 14 (his fourth double-digit effort of the season), his rate checked in at 8.2 yards in Week 15 against the Buccaneers and 6.8 in Thursday’s win over the Broncos.
Offense: Los Angeles averaged a season-high 3.1 points per possession on Thursday night, punting on just 27.3% of their possessions (their fourth game this season with a sub-30% punt rate).
Defense: The Chargers eventually forced a punt after failing to do so on 16 straight drives—that’s the longest streak this season and one shy of matching the longest in franchise history.
Fantasy: Gus Edwards ran 14 times for 68 yards (43 on a single carry) and two touchdowns on Thursday night – that was the sixth instance in which a running back had two rushing touchdowns on under 15 carries since the beginning of November – teammate J.K. Dobbins was responsible for two of the other five.
Betting: Unders are 7-3 in Los Angeles’ past 10 games played on extended rest.
New England Patriots
Team: New England is in the midst of their second five-game losing streak of the season – from 2010-17, they didn’t lose five games in a single regular season.
QB: Drake Maye has completed 15-of-17 third-down passes over his past three games (88.2%)
Offense: The Patriots scored on 30% of their drives against the Bills on Sunday, matching their highest mark of the season.
Defense: New England’s defense came to play on Sunday, holding the Bills to just four-of-11 on third down (in their two games prior, they allowed a 57.7% conversion rate).
Fantasy: On his 238 touches this season, Rhamondre Stevenson has as many fumbles as rushing touchdowns (seven) and as many fumbles lost as touches gaining 30+ yards (three).
Betting: Home underdogs on short rest have covered just seven of their past 24 games.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (Saturday)
Denver Broncos
Team: Christmas Eve marks 100 days since a QB not named Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, or Justin Herbert defeated the Broncos.
QB: Bo Nix joined some pretty strong company on Thursday night, even in defeat:
The always talked about 20-20-2 club.
20 completions
20 rush yards
2 pass TDSince 2000, Bo Nix is the 3rd rookie drafted outside of the top-10 to do it in consecutive games, joining …
*2012 Russell Wilson
*2017 Deshaun Watson— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) December 20, 2024
Offense: In Weeks 8-13, Denver recorded 50.6% of its third downs, a rate that has plummeted to 36.7% over the past two weeks (11-of-30).
Defense: The Broncos have posted a sub-28% blitz rate six times this season – they’ve done in five of their past six games.
Fantasy: Marvin Mims has a catch of more than 35 yards in four of his past five games – if you’re swinging for the fences, a matchup with a bottom-10 defense in terms of completions and touchdown rate on balls thrown 10+ yards downfield is a decent place to look.
Betting: The Broncos have covered five of six games on extended rest since the beginning of last season. The only one of those games that came on the road was in Buffalo in Week 10 last season, a 24-22 outright win as a seven-point underdog.
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: The Bengals have a 3+ game win streak in December (or later) in four straight seasons.
QB: You know that Joe Burrow is the first ever with 250 passing yards and three passing TDs in seven straight – extend his numbers from those games for a full season, and he’s posting a 5,430-yard 58-TD season (for reference, 2007 Tom Brady’s 17-game pace: 5,106 yards and 53 TDs.
Offense: Cincinnati scored on “just” 36.4% of their drives over the weekend, their lowest rate since Week 8.
Defense: Cincinnati has allowed under 1.5 points per possession three times this season – two of which have come against the Browns.
Fantasy: Ja’Marr Chase is seeking a seventh straight game with 18+ PPR points. Since 2013, only twice (Cooper Kupp in 2021 and Davante Adams in 2020) has a receiver had a longer such streak in a single season.
Betting: The Bengals are one of two teams (Patriots) playing a home game on short rest against a team on an extended week. The ATS results for teams in such spots are pretty flat, but overs have cashed in seven of the past 10.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (Saturday)
Arizona Cardinals
Team: Arizona is 4-15 and has been outscored by 152 points (492-340) in their past 19 road games.
QB: Kyler Murray doesn’t have more touchdown passes than interceptions in a game since doing so against the Jets in Week 10 (Arizona has lost four of five games over that stretch).
Offense: James Conner has consecutive games with a 40+ yard carry – he had one such run in his career with the Cardinals prior (794 rush attempts).
Defense: The Cardinals allowed the Panthers to average 3.0 points per drive on Sunday – Arizona falls to 1-6 this season when allowing at least 2.0 points per drive.
Fantasy: Conner is the first RB aged 29 or older with 100 rush yards, a rush TD, and 25 receiving yards in consecutive games since Latavius Murray (2019) – he joined this list in the first half last week against the Panthers.
Betting: Since the start of 2022, overs are 4-0 when the Cardinals play on extended rest (1-0 this season: 28-27 win over the Dolphins with a game that closed with a 46.5-point total).
Los Angeles Rams
Team: The Rams have won eight of 10 games after a 1-4 start, but they’ve only outscored their opponents by 27 points during that run (235-20)
QB: Matthew Stafford has thrown one touchdown pass on 46 attempts over his past two games (one TD toss every 11.7 attempts over his four games prior).
Offense: Los Angeles has won four straight games, but they’ve been walking on thin ice over their past two by converting just two of their eight red zone trips into TDs.
Defense: Opponents have converted just eight-of-18 red zone trips into touchdowns against the Rams over their past six games.
Fantasy: Kyren Williams has a league-high 15 games with 20+ carries since the beginning of last season.
Betting: The Rams have covered seven consecutive short rest games (average cover margin: 11.4 PPG).
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
New York Jets
Team: The Jets have two Sunday wins this season. Only six teams since 2017 have ended a season with two or fewer, and those teams combined to win one Thursday game (these Jets have two Thursday wins).
QB: Aaron Rodgers joins Tom Brady (seven occurrences) and Drew Brees (one) as the only 40+ year-old QBs with three straight games of 250 passing yards and zero interceptions.
Offense: New York converted both of their red zone trips in Week 1 in San Francisco – they haven’t cashed in all of their chances in a single game since.
Defense: This defense wasn’t given a chance on Sunday. The Rams’ average starting field position was the 46.6-yard line (the previous highest average starting position against New York this season was the 37-yard line).
Fantasy: Davante Adams has four straight games with 65+ receiving yards and a touchdown catch – only three receivers have had a longer such streak at age 30 or older (Terrell Owens, Cris Carter, and Muhsin Muhammed).
Betting: The Jets have covered consecutive road games (both in Florida) after going 2-9-1 ATS in their previous 12 contests away from home.
Buffalo Bills
Team: After averaging 45 points per game over a two-week stretch, there were a total of 45 points scored in Buffalo’s win over New England on Sunday.
QB: Is aggressive Josh Allen back? Over the past three weeks, the MVP front-runner owns an 11.2-yard aDOT (four games prior: 5.9).
Offense: The Bills scored a touchdown on their fourth-lowest percentage of drives in a game this season, while the Patriots matched their highest touchdown rate of the season.
The Bills beat the Patriots
Defense: In December, opponents are seven-of-seven on fourth down against Buffalo.
Fantasy: James Cook has 42 red zone touches this season compared to 35 last year – he’s scored 16 touchdowns this season compared to six last year.
Betting: After covering six of seven games, the Bills are 1-2 ATS over their past three games. They have seen six straight games decided by more than five points off of the spread.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
Team: Since the beginning of October, the Packers are 0-2 against the Lions (-13 point differential) and 9-0 against the rest of the NFL (+124 point differential)
QB: Jordan Love’s average QB+ is a point higher this season on the road than at home – he’s the only quarterback among the four NFC favorites with a split favoring the road games.
Offense: In the first half on Monday night, Tucker Kraft (63 yards) had more receiving yards than the Saints had passing yards, and Josh Jacobs had as many catches as New Orleans had completions (four).
Defense: Green Bay has taken a double-digit lead into the halftime locker room in four of their past five games – in those four games, they’ve allowed a total of 13 points in the first 30 minutes.
Fantasy: Josh Jacobs has 108 first-quarter touches this season, the third most through 16 weeks of a season over the past decade (Adrian Peterson had 112 in 2015, and so did David Johnson in 2016).
Betting: Over tickets have come through in seven of Green Bay’s past 10 road divisional games.
Minnesota Vikings
Team: The Packers were the last team without a tie to Matthew Stafford to have defeated the Vikings (Week 17 of last season).
QB: Since Week 11, Sam Darnold is 29-of-38 with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions when in the red zone.
Offense: Minnesota has cashed in nine of 10 red zone trips over their past three games.
Defense: Over the past two weeks, the Vikings have held the Bears/Seahawks to three conversions on 22 third downs (13.6%).
Fantasy: Over the past two weeks, none of Jordan Addison’s 12 catches have gained 20 yards (career prior: one of every 4.2 receptions picked up 20 yards).
Betting: The Vikings are 6-2 ATS at home this season (previous two seasons: 6-12 ATS).
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Las Vegas Raiders
Team: The Raiders are seeking their first winning streak since Weeks 15-16 last season.
QB: Aidan O’Connell averaged a season-best 10.7 yards per first down pass last week against the Jaguars (13-of-18 for 193 yards).
Offense: After picking up eight-of-14 third downs against the Dolphins in Week 11, the Raiders are just 19-of-67 since (28.4%).
Defense: Las Vegas forced Jacksonville to punt on 58.3% of their drives, their best defensive showing of the season.
Fantasy: Brock Bowers, on Sunday, joined Evan Engram (2023) and Zach Ertz (2018) as the only tight ends in the 2000s to have four double-digit catch games in a season.
Betting: Seven of Vegas’ past eight road games have finished at least seven points off of the closing spread.
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints scored 21 points in the final quarter prior to their bye. In the 16 quarters since their bye, they’ve totaled 47 points.
QB: Spencer Rattler is dealing with a skeleton roster and spreading the ball out. Of his first nine targets, four different players saw multiple opportunities.
Offense: The Saints have been out-scored 35-0 in first halves over their past two games (they held the lead at halftime in each of their five games prior).
Defense: The Saints are 4-1 this season when holding a team to a sub-36% conversion rate on third downs (1-9 otherwise).
Fantasy: The Saints had four players get 3-8 carries, and five players catch 2-5 passes – this is a small offensive pie that is being cut into far too many pieces.
Betting: The Saints are 4-4 ATS at home this season – they haven’t had a winning ATS year at home since 2017.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts
Team: On Sunday, the Colts became the third team in the 2000s to score 38+ points without throwing 15 passes (and the first to do so when not facing a member of the Manning family).
QB: Anthony Richardson had more rush attempts than completions against the Titans hand as a rushing score in three straight games (he has yet to throw for a touchdown in three consecutive appearances during his career).
Offense: Indianapolis picked up 53.3% of their third downs on Sunday (eight-of-15), matching their highest rate of the season (also: Week 4 vs. Steelers)
Defense: Opponents have converted all five of their red zone trips against the Colts into touchdowns over the past two weeks—only twice in the first 14 weeks did they allow a 100% conversion rate.
Fantasy: Get your AFC South running back exposure in August and watch it pay off in the biggest movements. Since 2017, four times has a player run for 210+ yards in a December game:
- Derrick Henry (2018) vs. Jaguars
- Derrick Henry (2019) at Texans
- Derrick Henry (2020) at Jaguars
- Jonathan Taylor (Sunday) vs. Titans
Betting: The Colts have failed to cover four straight December road games (three of those four carrying a failure to cover by at least 13 points).
New York Giants
Team: The Giants have matched the franchise record with 13 losses (also: 2017 and 2021). On the bright side, their last playoff appearance came in 2022, following a 13-loss campaign.
QB: Drew Lock has completed over 20 passes in all three of his starts this season, but none of them have gained more than 23 yards, and he has more interceptions than touchdown passes in each of those contests.
Offense: New York has picked up 13-of-52 third downs over their past four games (25%).
Defense: Opponents have picked up 17-of-25 third downs against the Giants over the past two weeks.
Fantasy: The Giants, as a team, have 1,603 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on 369 carries – Saquon Barkley has turned his 314 carries into 1,838 yards and 13 scores this season.
Betting: Unders are 12-4 in New York’s past 16 home games (they are 1-5 ATS in their past six such games).
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
Team: The Panthers have won a game that wasn’t decided in overtime or by less than a field goal once since the beginning of last season (Week 3 at Raiders: 36-22).
QB: Splash plays? Bryce Young has a 30+ yard completion in four of his past five games and a 10+ yard rush in five of his past six.
Offense: The Panthers have turned 13 of their past 14 goal-to-go situations into touchdowns.
Defense: Sunday was the seventh time this season in which the Panthers allowed points on the majority of opponent drives.
Fantasy: Adam Thielen has caught 5+ passes in all four games this month and has scored in three of his past six, but he has just two games this season with 60+ receiving yards.
Betting: The Panthers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games. Carolina covered in Philadelphia in Week 14 – they haven’t covered consecutive road games since Weeks 11-14 in 2022.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Team: The Buccaneers are 4-3 since Week 9 with a +53 point differential. Over that stretch, the Chiefs are 7-1 with a +28 point differential, the Rams are 6-2 with a +12 point differential, and the Steelers hold an identical 4-3 mark while being outscored by 14 points,
QB: Baker Mayfield’s touchdown pass under pressure on Sunday night was his first since his TD pass in Week 1 against the Commanders.
Offense: Odd but true – the Bucs are just 1-3 this season when scoring a touchdown on 100% of their red zone trips and 7-4 otherwise.
Defense: From Weeks 8-12, Tampa Bay allowed their opponents to convert 53.8% of third downs. Since then, that rate has plummeted to 30%
Fantasy: Jalen McMillan has three straight games with at least four catches and a touchdown reception – over the past 20 years, only three rookies have topped that streak (Odell Beckham Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tank Dell).
Betting: The Buccaneers are just 1-6 ATS in their past seven home divisional games (the lone cover, however, was in Week 17 of 2022 against the Panthers).
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Team: Tennessee has lost consecutive games when scoring at least 27 points – they had two such losses in their previous 86 games.
QB: Mason Rudolph isn’t leading an offense, but he’s getting rid of the ball – he has more touchdown passes (eight) than sacks this season (seven).
Offense: The Titans are seven-of-seven in the red zone over their past two games, which is great, but they have only converted one fourth-down pass since the beginning of November.
Defense: The Titans have allowed over 38 yards per drive three times this season – they’ve all come in December.
Fantasy: Calvin Ridley is the third Titan receiver over the past 20 years to have seven receptions and three touchdowns, gaining 30+ yards. The others? A.J. Brown (2019-20) and DeAndre Hopkins (2023).
Betting: Tennessee is 2-13 ATS. Unless they cover each of their final two games, they will finish as the worst ATS team of the 2000s up to this point (the 2007 Ravens and the 2014 Titans both finished 3-13 ATS).
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: Jacksonville was embarrassed in Detroit (Week 11: 52-6 loss), but every Jaguar game since has been decided by seven or fewer points.
QB: Mac Jones completed his first pass of the season last week, which traveled 21+ yards in the air. It was a 62-yard Brian Thomas Jr. score.
Offense: Since Week 8, the Jaguars have turned the ball over on 18.1% of their offensive drives.
Defense: The Jaguars have not forced a turnover in five straight games (10 such performances this season).
Fantasy: Brian Thomas Jr. is one of three receivers since 2000 to post 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns through 16 weeks of his rookie season – and all came from LSU (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014 and Ja’Marr Chase in 2021).
Betting: The Jaguars are just 3-9-1 ATS in their past 13 home December games.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Miami Dolphins
Team: The dream remains—Miami hasn’t had a losing season since 2019 (they hadn’t had five straight winning seasons from 1997 to 2003).
QB: In 2022, Tua Tagovailoa averaged 9.6 air yards per throw. That rate dropped to 7.6 last season and sits at 5.7 through 16 weeks this season.
Offense: Over their past three games, 35.5% of Dolphin drives have resulted in a made field goal.
Defense: Miami has held their opponent out of the end zone in the majority of their red zone trips over their past three games (seven-of-13).
Fantasy: Tyreek doesn’t have a catch gaining more than 30 yards since Week 1 and has caught just five of 14 targets over the past two weeks (Week 14 vs NYJ: 10 catches on 14 targets)
Betting: Including the playoffs, the Dolphins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 with a kickoff temperature under 40 degrees.
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have locked in their ninth last-place divisional finish in 14 seasons.
QB: Dorian Thompson-Robinson posted a 63.5 (D) QB+ grade, the eighth-worst game by a Browns QB since 2019. Thompson-Robinson has only had five career qualifying games (15+ pass attempts), and yet, he has three of the eight worst games by a Browns QB since 2019.
Offense: The Browns have not scored in the first, second, or fourth quarters in consecutive games.
Defense: The list of quickest players to 100 career sacks now has Myles Garrett on it:
- Reggie White: 96 games played
- DeMarcus Ware: 113
- Bruce Smith: 115
- Myles Garrett: 115
Fantasy: Jerome Ford has seven games with 10+ touches this season and has produced 7.7% over expectations in the process.
Betting: The Browns are 0-4 ATS at home this season when not facing a divisional opponent (average cover margin: -13.8 PPG).
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
Team: The Cowboys are 10-3 in their last 13 regular season games played on or after November 19 (they are 9-10 otherwise).
QB: The Cooper Rush experience may not be perfect, but the numbers don’t lie — in 2024, the splits by starting QB:
- Win%: Rush (57.1%), Dak Prescott (37.5%)
- Non-TO%: Rush (87.8%), Prescott (85.1%)
- Red Zone TD%: Rush (55%), Prescott (45.5%)
Offense: Dallas has scored on at least half of their drives in consecutive games after having one such performance this year prior.
Defense: Opponents have scored a touchdown against Dallas on 26-of-29 goal-to-go trips this season and are a perfect 13-of-13 since Week 9 in such situations.
Fantasy: Brandon Aubrey has more 55+ yard made field goals this season (six) than the Cowboys have 55+ yard plays during the regular season since the start of 2023 (five).
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in four of Dallas’ past five road covers
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: Can they get lucky win #13 this week? This franchise has hit that total three times, and they’ve won the NFC in each instance (2004, 2017, and 2022)
QB: Philadelphia’s one-seed shots took a huge shot on Sunday – none of the QBs on the three favorites in the NFC have a greater drop in QB+ from home to road than Jalen Hurts.
Offense: Philadelphia was just three-of-16 on third down against Washington (18.8%), their second-worst rate of the season.
Defense: The Eagles forced a turnover on 38.5% of Commander drives last week and found a way to lose. In their first seven games this season with a double-digit forced turnover percentage, Philadelphia was 7-0 and had outscored their opponents by 93 points.
Fantasy: Saquon Barkley ran for 109 yards in the first quarter against the Commanders on Sunday, giving him the most in a first quarter since 2011. Who did he unseat? Saquon Barkley in 2019 – against the Commanders – on December 22 (2019).
Betting: Overs are 8-3 in Philadelphia’s past 11 home divisional games.
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (SNF)
Atlanta Falcons
Team: Atlanta is chasing their first winning season since 2017. Their win on Sunday prevented them from finishing with exactly seven wins for the sixth time in seven seasons.
QB: Michael Penix Jr. wasn’t perfect last week, but he did post a better QB+ grade than Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Aaron Rodgers.
Offense: In Penix’s debut, the Falcons scored 34 points and converted eight-of-14 third downs. In Kirk Cousins’s final two starts, the total was 36 points and 11-of-26 on third downs.
Defense: Atlanta has allowed fewer than a point per drive three times this season – Weeks 13, 15, and 16.
Fantasy: Drake London’s EPA per target last week was his fourth-highest of the season.
Betting: Rookie QBs are 16-8-1 ATS (66.7%) on primetime since the beginning of 2022.
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders have three three-game win streaks this season – entering this season, they had three such streaks since Christmas of 2020.
QB: There have been two go-ahead TD passes in the final 10 seconds of regulation this season:
- Jayden Daniels in Week 8 vs. the Bears
- Jayden Daniels in Week 16 vs. the Eagles
Offense: During their current three-game winning streak, the Commanders have moved the chains on 25-of-44 third downs (56.8%).
Defense: Over the past two weeks, the Commanders have held their opponents to six-of-27 on third downs (22.2%), but those teams are four of four on fourth downs in those games.
Fantasy: What a difference a QB makes. Terry McLaurin’s on-field target share this season (20.7%) is essentially identical to last season (20.6%), but his production relative to the expectation of those looks has spiked from -4% to +44.3%).
Betting: Washington hit a rough patch in Weeks 10-12 and failed to cover three straight games – they are 9-2-1 ATS otherwise.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Detroit Lions
Team: The Lions are unbeaten on the road, and success on the road has been a common trait on Super Bowl winners … the past five Super Bowl champions won 81.3% of regular season road games
QB: Much gets made of the home/road splits for Jared Goff, but his QB+ in Detroit this year (81.1) is nearly identical to his grade away from his loyal fans (80.8).
Offense: The Lions and Bears combined for 557 yards of offense in the first half on Sunday. That’s the fourth most in a game this season – it’s the third most in a Lions game this season.
Defense: The Lions held the Bears to 20% on third downs, the fifth time this season that they have held an opponent to that rate or lower.
Fantasy: Amon-Ra St. Brown is the first Lion with multiple seasons of 100 catches,1,000 receiving yards, and 10 touchdown catches. How many players would you draft ahead of him in 2025?
Betting: The Lions’ seven straight long rest spots have gone over the total, and they have covered 10 of their past 12 such games.
San Francisco 49ers
Team: In 2019, the 49ers made the Super Bowl and followed it up by winning seven fewer games than the year prior. They are 6-9 this season after making the Super Bowl last season (2023 regular season: 12-5 record).
QB: Brock Purdy’s birthday is on December 27th and one of his wishes will be to cure his recent struggles under pressure (last two games: nine-of-23 for 93 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions).
Offense: San Francisco has converted just 51.8% of their red zone trips into touchdowns this season, down from 67.2% a season ago.
Defense: The 49ers are allowing 31.1% more points per drive this year than last year (allowing a touchdown on 24.4% of drives)
Fantasy: Deebo Samuel Sr. has produced 15% below PPR expectations this season, the lowest rate of his otherwise very efficient career. His points per target (1.57) also sits at a career low, and his expected points per game are down 6.4% from a season ago.
Betting: San Francisco has failed to cover five straight long rest games (0-2 this season).