Entering Week 16, three teams remained in the mix for the AFC’s No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs. However, that fell to two after the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the Houston Texans. Now, the Chiefs (14-1) and Buffalo Bills (12-3) still harbor hopes of avoiding Wild Card Weekend altogether.
Let’s break down the NFL playoff scenarios for the AFC’s No. 1 seed and how each game this weekend will impact the situation.
What Is the Current AFC No. 1 Seed Playoff Picture?
The current situation in the AFC sees two teams remaining in contention, with the Chiefs leading the Bills by two games. Here are the current standings atop the AFC:
- Kansas City Chiefs (14-1)
- Buffalo Bills (12-3)
With three games left to play, the Chiefs are in a dominant position. However, their loss to the Bills in Week 11 means that Buffalo owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kansas City.
What a Chiefs Win Means for AFC’s No. 1 Seed
With the Chiefs beating the Texans, the only thing that happens immediately is that the Pittsburgh Steelers are eliminated from contention for the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs have a four-game lead while the Steelers would only have three games remaining. The Steelers would have also been eliminated if the Chiefs and Texans tied.
However, the Chiefs did not clinch the No. 1 seed with a win because the Bills are still just two games down on them and have two games to play. The Bills only need to finish level with the Chiefs, as Buffalo has a head-to-head tiebreaker from their Week 11 victory.
With the Bills keeping the race alive into Week 17, the Chiefs will have two opportunities to clinch themselves and two opportunities to clinch with the Bills making mistakes. If the Chiefs avoid losing either of their last two games, they will be sitting at home watching Wild Card Weekend rather than playing in it. Similarly, if the Bills fail to win either of their remaining two games, then the Chiefs would have the top seed.
If the Chiefs were to lose both of their remaining two games after Week 16 and the Bills were to win them both, then the Bills would have the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Bills have that head-to-head victory in their pocket, so if both teams finished 14-3, the Bills would claim the first seed.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
AFC Playoff Race | Week 18
1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
4. Houston Texans (9-7)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
7. Denver Broncos (9-7)
In The Hunt
9. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)
8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)
Eliminated From Playoffs
10. Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
11. New York Jets (4-12)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)
14. Tennessee Titans (3-13)
15. New England Patriots (3-13)
16. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
