The last time we saw Patrick Mahomes with a hobbled ankle, he was leading his team to yet another Super Bowl victory. There were countless jokes online that claimed Mahomes on one ankle is still the best quarterback in the league. With Josh Allen a betting favorite to win MVP and the Buffalo Bills playing lights out, there is little margin for error if the Chiefs want to maintain home-field advantage for the playoffs — so these claims will be tested.
The Houston Texans are sitting with a firm lead in the AFC South but are also within striking distance of better seeding. The Texans have been led by their defense amidst a sophomore slump from C.J. Stroud. We will see if they can take advantage of a Mahomes ankle injury to propel their playoff prospects forward.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chiefs -3.5 - Moneyline
Chiefs (-185); Texans (+154) - Over/Under
42 total points - Game Time
1:00 p.m ET - Location
Arrowhead Stadium
Texans vs. Chiefs Preview and Prediction
In 2022, Mahomes played the second half of the Divisional Round game, the AFC Championship Game, and the Super Bowl on an injured ankle. Looking at how he performed and the difference in strategy from both sides can perhaps give us a preview of what is to come in this game against Houston.
Reviewing the 2022 Mahomes playoff run, in the second half of the Jacksonville game, the Chiefs’ time to throw was 2.66 seconds and went up to 2.90 and 2.85 against the Bengals and Eagles after some extra time that allowed Mahomes to heal a bit. Their average time to throw for the entire season was 2.90, so it was a clear difference in the second half vs. Jacksonville but not for the other two. He also scrambled three times in both games post-Jacksonville.
Comparing this to the 2.88 scrambles per game average from Kansas City that year, I can definitively say Mahomes isn’t adjusting the way he played because of his injury. It might look a little different scheme-wise, but he will do what is necessary to win. The offensive success didn’t suffer either, considering his above-average performance against the Bengals and historically good performance against the Eagles.
The Chiefs’ offense this year thrives on death by a thousand paper cuts. They rank 10th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play and fifth in success rate, according to TruMedia. Much of this is because they lack explosive plays, ranking 24th in passes of 20 or more yards and 29th in rushes of 10 or more yards.
Some attribute this to Mahomes having the yips — his stats on passes of 20 or more yards are not great (27th of 43 in PFF Deep Passing Grade). Whatever the reason, the fact that they still manage a top-10 offense is obscene, especially with how average the rushing game is as well (11th in EPA, 28th in yards per rush).
The real test for this game will be the Chiefs’ offensive line. They rank third in quick pressure rate allowed and ninth in PFF’s pass block grade. The only issue is that their main offensive tackles have given up the 23rd and 26th most pressures per game out of 111 offensive tackles with over 100 snaps.
That could be an issue for a hobbled Mahomes facing a Texans defense that has both Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. Among 142 players with over 200 pass rushes, Anderson ranks 12th in pressure rate and Hunter 26th. To add to that, Hunter is first in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate and Anderson sixth.
Overall, Houston’s defense is very good, ranking third in defensive EPA per play and second in success rate. The defense matches up exceptionally well with Kansas City because they also struggle against big plays (18th, 20th in passing, rushing explosive rate allowed) but play consistently well from down to down.
The true difference-maker will be whether or not Stroud and the Houston offense can get anything going against the Chiefs’ defense. Kansas City ranks 12th in EPA, 13th in success rate, and first in my unpredictability metric. Steve Spagnuolo does a wonderful job of mixing up coverages and confusing the opposing quarterback. The true strength of the defense is their ability to stop explosive runs.
They rank 15th in explosive passes allowed per game but second in explosive rushes allowed. This will be important to look at especially on early downs as Houston loves to run the ball on early downs. In late-down situations, Kansas City ranks eighth in defensive EPA per play and 20th in success rate. Houston’s offense is 10th in EPA and 18th in success rate in similar situations.
The other situation to look at is likely pass plays. The Chiefs have the eighth-highest pass-funnel defense, which means teams pass more on average against them. In such plays, the Texans are an abysmal 23rd in EPA and 27th in success rate; the Chiefs’ defense is 14th in EPA and 16th in success rate. That’s a clear advantage for the Chiefs.
Overall, the Texans’ offense has struggled far too much for me to trust them against a seasoned defense that matches up well. I believe the Texans’ defense will be able to, at the very least, cancel out an injured Mahomes-led offense. I expect this game to be low-scoring, and it will probably come down to the last second.
With odds of -185 for the Chiefs moneyline, this works itself out to an implied probability of 64.91%. At -110 odds, Chiefs chances of winning by more than three points are priced at 52.38%. Using Action Network’s converter, you find that the estimated moneyline is actually -191, suggesting a slight advantage to taking the moneyline rather than the spread.
My pick: Chiefs ML (-185)
The implied score as of writing this article is 22.75 to 19.25 in favor of the Chiefs. The odds are -110, again suggesting an implied probability of 52.38%. Using the TruMedia data set from 2000 to 2024, I estimated the probability of a game total being over 42 points. I estimated this using the empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) and found that games have a 53.57% chance of going over 42 total points.
I then filtered the data to include only 2024 data from both the Chiefs and Texans. Their ECDF probability was 60.71%, which suggests this game is 8.33% more likely to go over 42 points than what Vegas suggests. The question on whether you should take this bet depends on how likely Mahomes’ injury is to affect the total points. For reference, the Chiefs average 23.5 points per game, so 22.75 is not that big of an adjustment.
Alternate Pick: Chiefs/Texans over 42 total points
