NFL Week 16 is a weird slate. It starts strong but goes downhill — fast.
After the 1 p.m. window, there’s just one watchable game (Vikings-Seahawks).
But we’re pros here at PFN. We give maximum effort to all of our NFL Week 16 picks and predictions — even for games we wish weren’t on television.
NFL Week 16 Predictions
All playoff and No. 1 pick probabilities are courtesy of PFN’s Playoff Predictor.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5, 42)
The Broncos and Chargers are much different teams than when they faced off in Week 6.
Since that 23-16 Chargers W, the Broncos have won six of eight, averaging 33.3 points in their wins.
That midseason push has created a win-and-get-in scenario Thursday against a Chargers team that has lost three of its last four — all to teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.
Offense has been the issue as of late for Los Angeles. Since Week 12, the Chargers are just 26th in EPA per play (-.095), struggling to both run and pass the ball effectively. Still, at 8-6, they are in good shape to make the playoffs as a Wild Card (66.5%); two wins in their final three games will get it done.
- David Bearman: Chargers
- Adam Beasley: Chargers
- Kyle Soppe: Chargers
- Dan Tomaro: Broncos
- Mike Wobschall: Chargers
The Broncos win in 57.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 41.5)
What is it about Patrick Mahomes and late-season injuries? He has one every year.
Mahomes is again dealing with a high-ankle sprain suffered in Week 15 and his status for the Texans game was in question early in the week.
If for whatever reason Mahomes can’t go, it’ll be Carson Wentz, who has appeared in just 12 games, starting eight, since his disastrous one year in Indianapolis.
In the three years since, Wentz has basically been the quarterback he was in the two years that preceded it: 63.2% completion rate, 43.9% success rate, and 6.4 yards per attempt.
No matter who starts for K.C., it’ll be tough sledding against a Texans defense that ranks third in EPA per play (-.086) and fourth in DEF+ (84.7).
The Texans and Chiefs have both already clinched home playoff games. The Chiefs can lock down the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win and a Bills loss to the Patriots.
- David Bearman: Chiefs
- Adam Beasley: Texans
- Kyle Soppe: Texans
- Dan Tomaro: Chiefs
- Mike Wobschall: Chiefs
The Chiefs win in 64.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-6, 45)
The most confounding part of the Steelers’ recent dominance over the Ravens is that it’s come despite Baltimore having a far superior quarterback.
The Steelers haven’t had a Pro Bowl QB since Ben Roethlisberger in 2017.
Lamar Jackson is in the running for his third MVP trophy since 2019. But over those six seasons, the Ravens have lost eight of 11 meetings with the Steelers, including the last four.
The most recent — an 18-16 loss in Pittsburgh in which Jackson had his worst game of the season per DEF+ (65.6).
If the Steelers pull off the season sweep, they will have clinched the AFC North for the first time since 2020.
Win or lose, the Ravens are almost certainly going to the playoffs; they’re currently 97.3% to get in. Win Sunday and they’re definitely in, and it will make the division race interesting in the final two weeks.
- David Bearman: Ravens
- Adam Beasley: Ravens
- Kyle Soppe: Ravens
- Dan Tomaro: Ravens
- Mike Wobschall: Ravens
The Ravens win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New York Giants vs. Atlanta Falcons (-8.5, 42)
How bad was Kirk Cousins that the Falcons felt compelled to bench him nine months after fully guaranteeing him $90 million?
Here’s how bad: He was the fourth player in NFL history to throw zero touchdowns and eight interceptions over a four-game span.
So the Michael Penix Era begins. How will he do? Who knows. He’s thrown just five NFL regular-season passes and has 16 preseason attempts.
But the Giants have every incentive to make things easy on them. At 2-12, they have a 36.8% shot at the No. 1 pick. The Falcons, meanwhile, are just 19.5% to win the NFC South and any realistic scenario includes them winning out.
- David Bearman: Falcons
- Adam Beasley: Falcons
- Kyle Soppe: Falcons
- Dan Tomaro: Falcons
- Mike Wobschall: Falcons
The Falcons win in 71.5% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5, 47) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals did the bare minimum to keep their season alive in Week 15, beating the dreadful Patriots for their first victory in more than a month.
And they did so by sticking to their strengths — ground and pound (163 yards, two touchdowns on 32 carries). The Cardinals, with James Conner leading the way, are ninth in rush EPA (-.047) and 13th in success rate (13th).
They’re going up against a Panthers rush defense that ranks last in yards per game (173) and per carry (5.0). At 3-11, Carolina has the fourth-best chance of landing the No. 1 pick (10.7%).
The Cardinals, meanwhile, need a lot to go their way to win the division: A combination of three wins and two Seahawks losses.
- David Bearman: Panthers
- Adam Beasley: Cardinals
- Kyle Soppe: Cardinals
- Dan Tomaro: Panthers
- Mike Wobschall: Cardinals
The Cardinals win in 68.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Detroit Lions (-6.5, 48) vs. Chicago Bears
The Lions’ defense is a major concern after Dan Campbell lost three more contributors in his team’s Week 15 loss to the Bills: CBs Carlton Davis (jaw), Khalil Dorsey (leg), and DT Alim McNeill (knee).
No contender has been snakebit like Detroit, and the injuries are taking their toll. The Lions have had three of their five worst DEF+ game ratings in the last three weeks (73.3 vs. Chicago, 71.9 vs. Green Bay, and 62.9 vs. Buffalo).
The banged up Lions certainly could use the bye and would get it by beating the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings the last three weeks.
The Bears’ last win came on Oct. 13, and they have been largely terrible on offense during their eight-game losing streak.
Since Week 7, Caleb Williams ranks 33rd in EPA per play (-.106), 32nd in success rate (63.5%), and 30th in completed passes over expectation (CPOE) (-2.8).
- David Bearman: Lions
- Adam Beasley: Lions
- Kyle Soppe: Lions
- Dan Tomaro: Lions
- Mike Wobschall: Lions
The Lions win in 75.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 47)
The state of Ohio in the 21st century has had far too many Christmases with no meaningful NFL football, and the tradition has been renewed in 2024.
The Browns are on QB3 this week with Dorian Thompson-Robinson in and Jameis Winston out. Winston (66.3 QB+ rating, 28th) was better than Deshaun Watson (44.8, 40th). But that doesn’t mean he was good.
Will DTR be better? His body of work isn’t encouraging. Thompson-Robinson has thrown one touchdown and seven interceptions and has averaged 3.7 yards per attempt in his career.
The Bengals, meanwhile, kept their longshot playoff hopes alive by beating the Titans in Week 15, but they need to win out, have the Chargers or Broncos lose out, and have both the Dolphins and Colts lose a game to get in.
- David Bearman: Bengals
- Adam Beasley: Bengals
- Kyle Soppe: Bengals
- Dan Tomaro: Bengals
- Mike Wobschall: Bengals
The Bengals win in 60.4% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 42.5)
This is the week of quarterback changes, and the Titans are making one as well.
Brian Callahan is benching Will Levis for Mason Rudolph, almost certainly ending any hope Levis had of being the Titans’ quarterback in 2025 and beyond.
Expect Tennessee to actively search for a QB1 in free agency and the draft this offseason. At 3-11, they have a 1-in-20 chance of landing the No. 1 pick.
But in the short term, expect the Titans to put up more of a fight against the Colts than they would have had they not made this move.
Levis’ 61.4 QB+ grade this year is 34th among qualifying quarterbacks. Rudolph, meanwhile, has a season grade of 71.9 (22nd).
After their Week 15 loss to the Broncos, the Colts’ playoff path is fraught. They need to win out and have the Chargers lose twice.
- David Bearman: Colts
- Adam Beasley: Colts
- Kyle Soppe: Colts
- Dan Tomaro: Colts
- Mike Wobschall: Titans
The Colts win in 61.8% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 46) vs. New York Jets
It’s strange for any 8-6 team not to be in must-win mode, but the Rams actually can afford a loss this week.
What’s far more important is that they win their final two conference games — against the Cardinals and Seahawks. If they do, they’re guaranteed a home playoff game.
And if they get in, the Rams will be a tough out. They’ve won seven of their last nine in a multitude of ways. In the last two weeks alone, they’ve won a 44-42 shootout against the Bills and a 12-6 slugfest against the 49ers.
The Jets, meanwhile, are 1-5 against teams with winning records. Their four wins have come against teams with a combined .321 winning percentage.
- David Bearman: Rams
- Adam Beasley: Rams
- Kyle Soppe: Rams
- Dan Tomaro: Jets
- Mike Wobschall: Rams
The Rams win in 64.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 45.5) vs. Washington Commanders
The Eagles are already in the playoffs and one win away from guaranteeing at least the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
For Philadelphia to secure the first-round bye, they need to finish a game ahead of the Lions in the standings due to conference records (currently 8-1 for Detroit, 7-2 for Philadelphia). So winning out probably won’t be enough (more on that in a bit).
The Commanders, meanwhile, are two wins away from their first playoff appearance since 2020.
But they’ll need to play better on offense than they did in Week 11, when the Eagles got stops on nine of 12 third downs and held Washington to 3.3 yards per carry.
- David Bearman: Commanders
- Adam Beasley: Eagles
- Kyle Soppe: Eagles
- Dan Tomaro: Commanders
- Mike Wobschall: Eagles
The Eagles win in 57.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 42.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Don’t look now, but the Vikings could be the NFC’s shock No. 1 seed after wins in each of their last seven games to move into a tie with the Detroit Lions atop the NFC North.
The Vikings have a brutal closing stretch — the third-toughest ledger, per strength of remaining schedule (.714) — but that test might be a blessing in disguise.
If they win out, they’ll very likely have the NFC’s No. 1 seed — even if they finish tied with the Eagles at 15-2. The tiebreaker would come down to strength of victory, and the projection is the Vikings would surpass the Eagles in that stat.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, are in a fair amount of trouble despite currently being tied with the Rams atop the NFC West at 8-6. They likely need to win out because the Rams are in a fairly dominant tiebreaker position and because the teams play in Week 18.
- David Bearman: Vikings
- Adam Beasley: Vikings
- Kyle Soppe: Vikings
- Dan Tomaro: Seahawks
- Mike Wobschall: Vikings
The Vikings win in 59% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-14, 46)
The Patriots’ early 21st-century dynasty was as good as any in NFL history.
But in the five years since Tom Brady left for the Buccaneers, they have the seventh-worst winning percentage in football (.377) because they’ve scored the fifth-fewest points (20.1 per game).
New England’s dropoff is even more stark when you compare it to the Bills’ rise. Buffalo has scored 125 points in the last three weeks. The Patriots have scored 114 since Halloween.
The silver lining? The Patriots (3-11) should have another premium draft pick. They are currently in the No. 3 slot, with a 17.8% chance to get No. 1.
The Bills, meanwhile are No. 1 seed-hunting. They can clinch the first-round bye if they win out and the Chiefs lose twice.
- David Bearman: Bills
- Adam Beasley: Bills
- Kyle Soppe: Bills
- Dan Tomaro: Bills
- Mike Wobschall: Bills
The Bills win in 92.3% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-1, 39.5)
Thanks for the memories, 2024 Jaguars and Raiders!
If you consider the long term, this is probably the most impactful game of the week. It’s essentially an elimination game for the No. 1 pick.
Entering Week 16, The 3-11 Jaguars held the No. 4 pick of the 2025 Draft, with a 6.1% chance of landing it.
The Raiders are doing everything they can to make Shedeur Sanders’ dream of wearing silver and black come true. At 2-12, they’d hold the No. 1 pick if the season ended today, but at 16.6%, they aren’t the odds-on favorite to pick first (Giants: 36.8%).
But enough about the future. Let’s talk about the present. Who wouldn’t get excited for Mac Jones vs. Desmond Ridder?
- David Bearman: Jaguars
- Adam Beasley: Jaguars
- Kyle Soppe: Jaguars
- Dan Tomaro: Raiders
- Mike Wobschall: Jaguars
The Raiders win in 56.2% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Miami Dolphins (-1, 44.5)
While most everyone believes the Dolphins’ season ended in Houston last weekend, they technically do have a chance to get into the playoffs.
What would it take?
Wins in their last three games (good luck), a Colts loss to the Titans, Giants or Jaguars (fat chance), and the Chargers losing to the Patriots or Raiders (lmao).
Forget what the numbers say. Their true odds of all that happening are about as likely as what the Niners need to win the NFC West:
- SF winning out
- WAS losing out
- ATL losing Weeks 16, 18
- LAR or SEA losing out
- ARI losing Week 16 or 17
Game picks:
- David Bearman: 49ers
- Adam Beasley: 49ers
- Kyle Soppe: Dolphins
- Dan Tomaro: 49ers
- Mike Wobschall: Dolphins
The Dolphins win in 50.7% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 48.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
What got into the Buccaneers, who were 4-6 heading into their Week 11 bye? Since then, they’ve won four straight by an average of 16 points.
That includes a 23-point drubbing of the Chargers in Week 15 to give Tampa Bay firm control of its own playoff destiny. If the Buccaneers win their last three — all against sub-.500 teams — they will make a fifth straight playoff appearance for the first time in franchise history.
The difference has been on defense. Since Week 11, they’re second in EPA per play (-.156).
It’ll be the toughest test yet for Cooper Rush, who has helped right the ship since Cowboys QB1 Dak Prescott went down with an injury last month. Over the last four games, Rush is 14th in passer rating (98.4) and has thrown eight touchdowns with just one interception.
- David Bearman: Cowboys
- Adam Beasley: Buccaneers
- Kyle Soppe: Buccaneers
- Dan Tomaro: Cowboys
- Mike Wobschall: Buccaneers
The Buccaneers win in 71.5% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers (-14.5, 42)
NFL schedule-makers gave us a giant lump of coal to kick off Christmas Week with this dud of an MNF game.
Perhaps if Derek Carr were playing, this game would be somewhat competitive. But Carr’s fractured hand means the nation will be subjected to three hours of either Spencer Rattler (57.5% completions, 32.1% success rate, 5.9 yards per attempt) or Jake Haener (46.2%, 31.1%, 5.8).
So good news for any team that needs help from the Packers, who are in a win-and-get-in situation.
Technically, the Saints still have a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs after their final-play loss to the Commanders. How? They win out, the Buccaneers lose Weeks 16 & 17, and the Falcons lose out.
- David Bearman: Packers
- Adam Beasley: Packers
- Kyle Soppe: Packers
- Dan Tomaro: Packers
- Mike Wobschall: Packers
The Packers win in 82.6% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
Percentage of Games Correctly Picked Through Week 15
- Mike Wobschall: 71.3%
- Kyle Soppe: 67.7%
- Adam Beasley: 66.4%
- Dan Tomaro: 59.6%
- David Bearman: 56.4%