The NFL playoffs are drawing closer every day, and we’re about to enter a stretch where some teams will play three games in just 11 days (the NFL holiday gauntlet, if you will). Although Saturday’s double-header features some of the league’s best defenses, there will still be plenty of fantasy football points to be had. Shall we?
Week 16 DFS (Saturday) NFL Picks
- QB: Lamar Jackson
- RB: Isiah Pacheco
- RB: Najee Harris
- WR: Nico Collins
- WR: Zay Flowers
- WR: Xavier Worthy
- TE: Pat Freiermuth
- FL: Mark Andrews
- DEF: Chiefs
Sticking to the Studs: Lamar Jackson
If you’re a Madden fan, you’ll know that the only way to stop Lamar Jackson is to just turn off your console. In the NFL, it’s pretty much the same deal.
After winning his second MVP trophy last season, Jackson is having another ridiculous year statistically.
In his last three games:
Week 12: 16 of 22, 177 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 15 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown
Week 13: 23 of 36, 237 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 79 rushing yards
Week 15: 21 of 25, 290 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, 65 rushing yards
These numbers are insane. If it weren’t for Josh Allen taking over the planet, Jackson would be squarely in line for MVP No. 3.
Now, we know that in the past, Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers have seemed to be Jackson’s kryptonite. This week, however, we think he gets over the hump.
T.J. Watt is questionable, and George Pickens is out. Jackson, meanwhile, is HOT, and it’s time to make a statement.
Can’t Stop Nico Collins
Last week was a mess against the Miami Dolphins, and yet, Collins still found paydirt twice, allowing him to post WR2 (or better) numbers for the seventh time in nine games. It’s fine to fear the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense. They’re about as good as it gets, but not to the point where you’re considering doing something crazy.
Even in the midst of a great season, Kansas City’s defense has allowed 17+ PPR points to an opposing WR1 five times this season (Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey, and Jakobi Meyers).
Say what you will about C.J. Stroud and his production this season — he’s better than the majority of quarterbacks who fueled the production of those WR1s in this same matchup.
Ground and Pound: Najee Harris
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers play slug fests, and that’s the type of ugly game that can work in Najee Harris’ favor in terms of raw volume.
He didn’t have much success running the ball in the first meeting (18 carries for 63 yards), and that’s to be expected against the second-best run defense in terms of success rate. Nevertheless, Harris was able to get home with seven PPR points as a pass catcher.
I worry that the role in the passing game can be fleeting (one target over the past two weeks), but those concerns are lessened now that we know George Pickens won’t be available for Saturday’s game. On top of this, Jaylen Warren has yet to see his role expand in a prohibitive way, so I think you can feel fine about letting it ride with Harris as an RB2.
Cheap Value: Pat Freiermuth and Mark Andrews
Pat Freiermuth has scored in three straight games, the first Steelers tight end to do so since Heath Miller opened the 2012 campaign with three in a row. The touchdowns are buoying a profile that is otherwise underwhelming.
We are pretty comfortable in labeling the Cincinnati Bengals as one of the worst defenses in the NFL. If you remove Pittsburgh’s Week 13 contest against Cincinnati, Freiermuth is averaging 29.8 receiving yards and 2.8 catches per game since Week 8.
Yet, with Pickens out on Saturday, we love Freiermuth to find an end-zone target (or two…) after getting two last week against the Philadelphia Eagles.
On the flip side, Mark Andrews became Baltimore’s all-time leader in touchdowns last Sunday. After that reception, his touchdown rate for the season stood at 18.2% (career prior: 10.5%).
If we had numbers like this mid-season, I’d be preaching caution, but at this point, you don’t care about long-term concerns — you’re looking to survive this week. That said, Jackson has completed 90.9% of his red-zone passes when targeting Andrews and 69.2% when throwing to someone else.
