Soppe’s Week 16 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game

This game of ours is one of very little separation, and that makes every decision critical. As much as I’d love to help every one of you with your specific questions (I’ll try — @KyleSoppePFN), that’s a big ask.

What I can give you, every single week, are my takes. My statistical-backed rankings are available, but you, the devoted fantasy manager, need more than simply a number next to a name. You need to know why I stand where I do, and that’s my goal with this novel.

If you have a question, hit me up on Twitter, but my hope is that this extended piece will give you the insight you’re looking for without relying on me landing on your specific question before lineups lock.

You don’t have to get ready if you stay ready — this piece, is me staying ready to help you win the week!

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Week 16 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers, QB | NYJ (vs. LAR)

Oh, buddy.

I get a hard time for my, let’s say, lack of word efficiency. If I were creating a résumé based on how I write, I’d flip that weakness into a strength and label it as an “unbridled work ethic that will stop at nothing to provide the most detailed and well-thought-out analysis.” But I get it, and you’re right.

More is more in my head when it comes to writing. Ask any boss I’ve worked for, ask my wife, ask my hot water-heater guy that I’m bouncing this Aaron Rodgers profile off of right now.

I’m wordy. Sue me.

For Rodgers, it’s deserving. My hunch is that you’ve seen the clips of him throwing Davante Adams open, racking up 600+ yards over a two-week Florida spin, and generally playing with a smile on his face. That’s all great and maybe you took a flier on him at the beginning of the month and are benefiting in a major way.

Great. Love that for you.

Aaron Rodgers over the last 2 weeks:

💥 628 yards
💥 4 TDs
💥 0 INTs

Davante Adams over the last 2 weeks:

💥 18 receptions
💥 307 yards
💥 3 TDs

We're seeing this duo at the level we always hoped to see 🥹#Jets pic.twitter.com/LJhyT1UBG2

— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) December 16, 2024

But does any of that production get you a win in Week 16? Not in my leagues, so let’s evaluate this week as its own entity.

This season, 39.1% of Rodgers’ touchdown passes have come from outside the red zone, an unsustainably high rate. The league average trends around 70%, and while Rodgers doesn’t have to apologize for the chunk plays resulting in touchdowns, it’s not the easiest thing to continue doing at any point, let alone as the weather flips.

Counting on those scores becomes even more difficult against a Rams defense. Los Angeles hasn’t allowed a touchdown pass from outside the red zone in four of its past six games and in seven of 11 after a slow start. They also happen to grade out as the sixth-best red-zone defense in the NFL, so banking on red-zone touchdown pass regression for Rodgers isn’t exactly a safe bet, either.

There’s more.

In Aaron Donald’s last Defensive Player of the Year season (2020), the Rams created pressure on 44.2% of blitzes. That’s a strong mark that ranked sixth that season, with the Chiefs leading the way at 49.8%.

The Rams currently sit at 50%. Now we are onto something. Since the beginning of 2022, Rodgers has thrown a touchdown on 3.4% of such (pressured while blitzed) attempts. I assume you need context on that rate, and I’m nothing if not a man of the people.

• NFL average: 4.8%

Need more? Fine, needy reader. The almighty quartet of Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew II, Mac Jones, and Daniel Jones have a 3.5% pass touchdown rate over that stretch.

Not pretty.

Rodgers has been absurdly productive over the past two weeks in play-action situations (19.9 yards per completion and 11.6 yards per attempt), but why fake the run if it’s not being stopped?

Through 15 weeks, against running backs, the Rams rank 22nd in rushing TD rate inside the five-yard line, 25th in EPA, and 26th in third-down conversion rate.

With freezing temperatures expected at MetLife with some wind to consider, looking for a 41-year-old to sustain the excellence he showed in sunny Florida recently is optimistic.

So, yeah, the fact that Rodgers has thrown for more yards in consecutive second halves than he did in any of his three full games prior is a fun and accurate stat. I want to see discount double-check celebrations at the end of a lost season as much as anyone, but there’s not a chance I’m putting the fate of my fantasy season in Rodgers’ hands in this ultra-specific spot.

Aidan O’Connell, QB | LV (vs. JAX)

The outlook is cloudy, come back later.

I can’t be the only one who feels like this Aidan O’Connell health situation is a run of randomly assigned eight-ball quotes, but here we are. At this moment, his status isn’t clear, but what is pretty obvious is that, for your QB slot, it shouldn’t matter.

I’ll address the ramifications on O’Connell’s two pass catchers, but a player with a 3.3% career touchdown rate operating at less than full strength without a stable run game just isn’t going to cut it for me. And it’s not difficult to make the case that a compromised version of O’Connell could still be the preferred path for your Raiders pieces.

Anthony Richardson, QB | IND (vs. TEN)

If you live by Anthony Richardson, at this point, you inevitably die by Anthony Richardson.

I wasn’t exactly celebrating in the streets, but I had a contrarian Richardson lineup in my DFS portfolio last week, and after one drive, I thought I was in the running for the smartest man on the planet.

• 22 passing yards
• 28 rushing yards
• Rushing TD

At low ownership because of poor play and a brutal matchup, I thought I was sneaky. That I was the one who spoke a big game in the perfect spot into existence.

That, friends, didn’t happen. As it turns out, 67.3% of Richardson’s fantasy points for the day were scored on that first possession. Again, we were left wanting more. The man has thrown 20 passes in a game eight times this season and failed to complete the majority of them in seven instances.

What was I truly thinking was going to happen?

Most games since 2022 with 20+ attempts and a CMP% of 50% or less:

1. Richardson in 2024 alone: Seven
2. Zach Wilson: Six
3. Baker Mayfield: Five

Lovely.

I could tell you that the Titans own the sixth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, which is 100% true. But I don’t wish for you the level of “how could I have assumed anything different” second-guessing that I experienced for the final 55 minutes of Week 15 in watching every Colts snap.

Richardson is my QB17 this week with the full understanding that there will be highlight plays in both directions. I simply don’t have the stones to go back to the well — I’ve been burned too many times for such a short period of time. Maybe this is a relationship the two of us can figure out — I hear that “time heals all wounds.”

Maybe.

Baker Mayfield, QB | TB (at DAL)

Baker Mayfield has a level of inevitability to his 2024 profile, and all “inevitable” traits of the 2024 Cowboys are negative, making this the profile of a QB1 without much question.

QB games with 18+ fantasy points, 2024:

• Lamar Jackson: 12
• Josh Allen: 11
• Baker Mayfield: 11
• Jayden Daniels: 10

That, of course, is an impressive list (I’ll take the L on Anthony Richardson weekly, but you have to give me this QB sleeper call from June, but it gets even better when you consider the skill set limitations.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m as much a fan of reckless Mayfield runs as anyone, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to call him “less athletic” than the other names on that list.

Here’s what that list looks like if we only include games with under 45 rushing yards:

• Baker Mayfield: 11
• Sam Darnold: Nine
• Josh Allen: Seven
• Joe Burrow: Seven

Mayfield takes that form into a matchup against a Dallas defense that ranks 24th in passer rating, 25th in completion percentage, and 31st in yards per attempt. He’s a big reason why you’re in the spot you are right now (10 top-10 finishes), and there’s no reason to pivot.

Bo Nix, QB | DEN (at LAC)

Bo Nix’s 16-yard run in the first quarter last week was great to see, as it was his longest since mid-October and a good reminder of the varied skill set that he brings to the fantasy table.

Also impressive from Week 15’s win was Nix’s 13-yard scoring strike to Adam Trautman. The throw wasn’t anything special, but his understanding of the play and defensive manipulation was not something I expected to see in his 14th career game.

The future is bright for this kid, and Sean Payton is probably the right man in charge when it comes to optimizing his fantasy value. However, I can’t get there this week.

Is Nix hitting a rookie wall despite the team’s success? His QB+ has been trending in the wrong direction of late.

Here’s how his recent results stack up with his classmates since Drake Maye made his NFL debut in terms of QB+ (not directly a fantasy stat, but an all-inclusive metric for overall QB play that I trust).

Nix averaged 6.5 yards per pass in Week 6 against these Chargers, and while he ran for 61 yards, that game was largely unimpressive. The chart above suggests that his play is moving in the wrong direction, and against the fourth-best defense in points allowed per possession, that’s enough for me to slide him outside of my top 12 at the position on a short workweek.

Brock Purdy, QB | SF (at MIA)

What has happened to our reliable Brock Purdy?

Last season, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were the only QBs in the league with more 20-point performances. The ceiling wasn’t elite, but we felt good about what we’d get weekly, and that was enough to start Purdy with confidence.

This season? Not so much. Over his last five games, Purdy has cleared 18.0 fantasy points three times and failed to reach 4.0 twice. That’s not what we signed up for, and it’s possible that last week’s dud against a vulnerable Rams defense doomed you.

Fantasy doesn’t always mirror reality, but in this case, the inconsistencies align. Against LA, Purdy completed just 9 of 19 non-pressured passes, the worst rate of his career (47.4%). His lack of confidence in his bail-out options is clearly a part of this mess, and, sad to say, that’s not going to change.

Purdy’s completion percentage this season drops from 70.8% when Christian McCaffrey is on the field to 63.8% without the star tailback.

But there’s hope. Er, there’s hope if you think this 49ers team can live up to their potential for the next 60 minutes, understanding that there aren’t likely to be weather concerns and a mini-bye this late in the season is never a bad thing.

Since the beginning of October …

• Purdy’s fantasy points in wins: 24.0 PPG
• Purdy’s fantasy points in losses: 11.0 PPG

Your confidence in Purdy comes down to your projection of this game. I happen to like San Francisco’s chances, which is why he slips into my top 12 at the position. However, I’d be lying if I said I was starting him with the utmost confidence (eight carries for 18 yards thus far in December).

I’m nothing if not a hopeless optimist, so I’ll leave you with this — the last time Purdy had extended rest, he threw for a season-high 353 yards in Florida. This offense remains talented, and if this turns into a track meet, we should see the “good” version of this now wild card option.

Bryce Young, QB | CAR (vs. ARI)

The 83-yard touchdown pass to Jalen Coker under duress was good to see, but on 14 other pressured dropbacks against Dallas, Bryce Young produced one (1) passing yard.

Over the past month or so, we seem to get breadcrumbs when it comes to a positive profile, but nothing substantial enough to have my interest in any capacity for the remainder of this season. Case in point: Young hit Micah Parsons — unofficially a top-three most scary player on a football field these days — with a spin move last week, and it worked!

He then finished the run with a lost fumble.

That’s pretty much Young’s career arc up to this point. I’ll be paying attention in the offseason, not in the current times with no room for error in the fantasy playoffs.

Caleb Williams, QB | CHI (vs. DET)

Caleb Williams racked up the fantasy numbers in the late stages of the first meeting with the Lions, and while those points counted for you in Week 13, I’m not reading into his 295 yards of offense with three scores as predictive in the slightest for this weekend’s rematch.

The rookie is inconsistent from possession to possession, and that’s a tough way to live against the second-best defense in opponent passer rating. I had hopes this offseason that Williams would offer meaningful production with his legs. Instead, his athleticism is being used to run for his life.

The future is brighter than the present for Williams, both as a fantasy asset and real-life QB.

Carson Wentz, QB | KC (vs. HOU)

Patrick Mahomes has been unable to give us consistently impactful fantasy numbers, so why would we think that Carson Wentz would?

The veteran Wentz is on his fourth team in four years and has thrown just 26 competitive passes since the beginning of last season. He’s well off of fantasy radars, obviously, but I’d go a step further and avoid all members of this passing game, provided that Wentz is announced as the starter.

C.J. Stroud, QB | HOU (at KC)

C.J. Stroud’s passer rating when throwing deep is 42 points lower this season than last. I hoped that early-season trends like this were the result of Nico Collins’ injury, but the second-year QB is struggling to make the plays he consistently gave us last season.

This feels like a grind-it-out game where the running backs are heavily featured and the passing game lacks volume. Stroud hasn’t ranked better than QB14 in a game since September, a trend I don’t see changing in Week 16.

Cooper Rush, QB | DAL (vs. TB)

Cooper Rush has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his past four games. That’s a start, but without much in the way of yardage (under 215 in three straight), asking him to churn out top-15 numbers, even if playing catch-up, is too optimistic.

Rush has been doing the two things we need from him — hand the ball to Rico Dowdle and weigh down CeeDee Lamb with targets. If he can continue to do that, this will be a successful week.

Rush himself is nothing but a low-end QB2 with a very limited ceiling.

Derek Carr, QB | NO (at GB)

Derek Carr (fractured left hand) has yet to officially be ruled out for the season, but all reports seem to be pointing in that direction in this lost season for New Orleans.

Carr still has two years remaining on his deal (though the team does have an out available to them this summer), making it important to note that — assuming his 2024 is over — he will have posted a triple-digit deep passer rating for the sixth time in his career. He doesn’t get the love he should for his touch on the long pass, and that will likely be reflected when I am higher than you on Chris Olave this summer.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB | CLE (at CIN)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson got a chance to impress earlier this season, and…well, he failed.

Against the woeful Bengals defense, DTR completed just 11 of 24 passes for 82 yards and two interceptions. In that loss, he did pick up 44 yards on the ground, and if you’re going to be in any capacity on him in the rematch, his athleticism will have to factor in.

Cleveland’s offense will look very different from the overly aggressive stylings of Jameis Winston. While that might mean fewer turnovers, I expect fewer scoring chances, which drags down the projectable value of all involved.

Drake Maye, QB | NE (at BUF)

Drake Maye has over 2.5 fantasy points as a runner with over 200 passing yards in four straight games. That has allowed him to establish a reasonable production floor with four top-15 finishes over his past five games but hasn’t resulted in much of a ceiling (one top 10).

There are weekly flashes to get excited about long term. Last week, Maye completed all 10 of his first-half passes and, late in the game, had a scrambling weird flip pass to DeMario Douglas in the end zone.

That play looked like something that Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes would do. No, he’s not on that level and probably never will be, but it’s clear who he modeled his game after, and that gives him interesting upside as a punt QB option when you draft this summer, especially if the Pats can add some talent around him.

Drew Lock, QB | NYG (at ATL)

A heel injury kept Drew Lock out of last week’s loss to the Ravens but he will be back under center in Week 16.

For our purposes, the season is, and has been, over. In his five appearances this season, Lock has completed just 51.1% of his passes, and over the past four seasons, he has more interceptions (22) than touchdown passes (21).

Geno Smith, QB | SEA (vs. MIN)

Week 9 was the last time Geno Smith finished inside of the top 20 at the position. Asking him to reverse that trend against the blitz-heaviest defense in the NFL is a tall order.

Seattle’s offense as a whole has been underwhelming of late. Five of the first six Seahawks games this season went over the betting total, but unders are 6-2 since.

I currently have Smith sitting outside of my top 20, ranking in the same range as the random number generator that is Anthony Richardson.

Jalen Hurts, QB | PHI (at WAS)

The Eagles opened last season with a 10-1 run, in which they averaged 2.53 points per drive and scored a touchdown on 29.4% of drives. During their current 10-game win streak, they are putting 2.60 points on the board per drive (31.2% TD rate).

In short, this team is in elite form — this time at the right time.

Jalen Hurts completed 22 of 26 passes from within the pocket last Sunday (84.6%, his best mark since going 18 of 20 against the Falcons in Week 2), a development that makes him close to unstoppable (13+ rushing scores in three straight seasons).

I’m not reading too much into Hurts’ underwhelming first game against the Commanders. That was a short rest spot where they ran the ball 40 times. I’m looking for another 25-30 passes and 8-12 rush attempts, a profile that nearly locks Hurts into top-10 production and gives him access to another top-five week at the office.

Jameis Winston, QB | CLE (at CIN)

Jameis Winston has been benched and all excitement for Cleveland’s skill players goes with him. While it’s the less fun option, there’s no denying that the move is a logical one.

Week 12 vs. Steelers: 2.4 points per drive
Week 13 at Broncos: 2.1 points per drive
Week 14 at Steelers: 1.2 points per drive
Week 15 vs. Chiefs: 0.5 points per drive

Dorian Thompson-Robinson takes over under center and will look to keep the Browns’ offense on the field in an effort to shorten the game against the explosive Bengals.

Jared Goff, QB | DET (at CHI)

Is there a better player profile to describe the crazy nature of 2024 than Jared Goff?

Five weeks after winning a game in which he threw five interceptions, Goff lost a game with five touchdown passes.

Sure, that makes sense. For our purposes, the raw numbers looked amazing last week, and the style in which they were produced followed. Goff completed a season-high six deep passes against a strong Bills perimeter defense last week (three games prior: seven deep completions), a positive sign in an offense that has proven plenty capable of excelling in short-area situations.

With David Montgomery shelved for the remainder of the season, Goff is going to have to take on more responsibilities, something his fantasy managers have been asking for. With Sam LaPorta trending in a positive direction and Tim Patrick adding a third receiver to the mix, I’m fine with wagering on Goff against a Bears defense that has been trending in the wrong direction for a month now.

You have to be aware that this is a road game. Such games always carry risk for a dome team, but I feel good in labeling Goff as a top-10 QB option this weekend.

Jayden Daniels, QB | WAS (vs. PHI)

Jayden Daniels has 10 top 12 finishes this season and his ability to maximize the high-leverage spots is what has my eye.

Over his past four games, Daniels is 11 of 13 with seven touchdowns when throwing inside the red zone. His athleticism and instincts can result in big plays, but if he’ s consistently dominating these situations with his ability to make quick/accurate reads, we are talking about a true week winner.

Daniels leads the league with six games this season with at least 30 pass and seven rush attempts. I suspect we’ll see plenty of him out in space in this spot against an Eagles defense that is second best at limiting WR YAC.

Joe Burrow, QB | CIN (vs. CLE)

Last week, Joe Burrow tied the NFL record for consecutive games with 250+ passing yards and 3+ passing TDs (six). His numbers are that of a fantasy MVP — an award he can win without team success, unlike the NFL MVP honor.

I don’t think the Bengals need an excuse to put their trust on the shoulders of their quarterback. But the fact that the Browns are the top EPA rush defense only encourages Cincinnati to lean into their heavy pass rate over expectation game plan.

In Week 7, the Bengals’ run game never got going (25 carries for 59 yards) in this matchup, and I think that’s great when it comes to projecting their Week 16 passing numbers. In my opinion, either the rushing efficiency improves and frees up downfield options or Cincinnati forgoes the run altogether.

I’ll take either!

Jordan Love, QB | GB (vs. NO)

The Saints’ pass defense is their strength (inside the top 10 in passer rating and pass touchdown rate), and with the Packers’ run game peaking, this could be a physical domination similar to what we saw from Green Bay in Seattle last week.

While I think that has the potential to cap Jordan Love’s ceiling (only threw 27 passes in Week 15), it does create a situation where efficiency due to single coverage is also projectable. That is why I think Love can give us his first top-10 finish since Week 6.

Last week, with Josh Jacobs bloodying the nose of the Seahawks, Love was able to get four of his teammates 3-5 receptions. If he spreads the ball around like that, asking for 250 yards and a few touchdowns is plenty reasonable.

Josh Allen, QB | BUF (vs. NE)

Last Sunday, in Detroit, Josh Allen became the first player in NFL history with multiple pass TD and multiple rush TD in consecutive games. At some point this offseason, I’ll note all of the crazy Allen-centric numbers this season, but they’re growing by the week.

Josh Allen has 3 completions of 20+ yards to RBs in just over 7 minutes … Russell Wilson (Week 13) is the only other QB to do that IN A GAME this season pic.twitter.com/QODqHqweek

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) December 15, 2024

Allen has been a top-two QB in three straight games and has finished as the top scorer at the position four times this season. He’s cleared 20 fantasy points in five of his past six games at home, and at this point, 20 points feels like a low expectation.

This is the first of two meetings with the Patriots over the next three weeks. If he’s going to finish this elite season with a fantasy Super Bowl-worthy performance, he’s going to have to solve this New England defense.

Justin Herbert, QB | LAC (vs. DEN)

Justin Herbert looked like he was on his way to a strong fantasy performance last week after one drive (43 yards and a touchdown toss to Ladd McConkey), but this offense hit a wall, something that we’ve seen on more than a few occasions.

Herbert failed to reach 200 passing yards for the seventh time this season, and with just 13 rushing yards on his December résumé up to this point, his role in the Chargers’ offense isn’t overly fantasy-friendly.

I don’t love Herbert this week against the second-best red-zone unit in the NFL. He currently sits as my QB17, primarily because I don’t think he has a realistic path to top-10 production in this matchup.

In Week 6, at altitude, Herbert threw for 237 yards and one score. That sounds about right, and I don’t think that’ll cut it this week.

Kirk Cousins, QB | ATL (vs. NYG)

Kirk Cousins struggled last week to the point where the Falcons essentially tried to melt the clock against an overmatched Raiders team.

With an interception in five straight games, Atlanta decided that its veteran QB was not their best way to make a playoff push, leading to Michael Penix Jr.’s elevation to the top of the depth chart.

Cousins was never labeled as the future of this franchise — but he’s no longer the present, either.

Kyler Murray, QB | ARI (at CAR)

Kyler Murray has one top-20 finish this season since his QB4 performance in Week 10. This season, he has as many games without a TD pass as games with multiple passing scores. All of that said, a date with the Panthers has a way of correcting those ails. Carolina is one of four defenses this year allowing opponents to post an average passer rating in the triple digits.

Murray’s rushing production has been spotty (under 25 yards on the ground in six of his past seven games), and that keeps him from lineup-lock status. He’s in the same tier as Jordan Love for me this week — an inconsistent fantasy asset in a favorable spot where his team may not require him to post video game numbers in order to have success.

Lamar Jackson, QB | BAL (vs. PIT)

Lamar Jackson earned his fourth “A” by way of our QB+ grading system, tying him for the most such games in a season on file (since 2019). I’m running low on superlatives when it comes to the reigning MVP …

10 games with 45+ rushing yards
5 games with 3+ touchdown passes
Career-high 68.1% completion percentage

The Steelers have held the Ravens to under 20 points in eight straight games, but sportsbooks are penciling them in for 25. If that comes through, I like Jackson’s chances of giving us top-five QB production.

Mac Jones, QB | JAX (at LV)

Mac Jones is 0 for 17 with five interceptions when throwing the ball more than 20 yards downfield this season. That is hard to comprehend, but it’s true.

Truly awful.

I was ready to talk up this matchup with Maxx Crosby on the shelf, but the Raiders, on a consistent blitz rate, saw their pressure rate actually spike last week, their first game without their defensive star. We are asking for Jones to support Brian Thomas Jr. and that’s about it.

Mason Rudolph, QB | TEN (at IND)

Did you know that Mason Rudolph’s first name is “Brett”?

There ya go; now you can’t say I never teach you anything.

Rudolph was fine last week (209 passing yards with two touchdowns and an interception), but consider the source. He was able to leverage a Bengals matchup and kinda sorta almost be viable.

The Indianapolis matchup isn’t one that needs to be feared, but they aren’t Cincinnati.

Defensive ranks, 2024:

• Red-zone defense: Colts (17th), Bengals (31st)
• Goal-to-go defense: Colts (14th), Bengals (31st)
• Yards per completion: Colts (11th), Bengals (22nd)
• Deep pass TD%: Colts (second), Bengals (27th)

In a Superflex situation, I’d take Rudolph over a Xavier Worthy type, but that’s as far as I’m going.

Matthew Stafford, QB | LAR (at NYJ)

Matthew Stafford has 17 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season when not pressured (two touchdowns and two picks when feeling the heat). Why do I mention that?

Jets blitz rates, 2024:

• Weeks 3-7: 31.6%
• Weeks 8-15: 26.5%

Stafford is checking all of the boxes I need from a pocket-locked passer. Over his last two games, he’s completed 78.9% of passes in enemy territory with a 134.2 passer rating. He’s making the most of those opportunities and against a downward-trending defense, and that’s enough for me to consider him as a low-end QB1.

Michael Penix Jr., QB | ATL (vs. NYG)

Michael Penix Jr., the eighth overall pick in April, will make his starting debut this weekend with the postseason hopes of this franchise on his shoulders.

It’s a soft landing spot (bottom-five in interception rate, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and passer rating), but that doesn’t mean that you blindly start a rookie with your fantasy season on the line.

Realistically, I’m not changing much in terms of my rankings for Week 16 because we simply don’t know what to expect. Bijan Robinson and Drake London remain starters in all formats while Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts are outside of my comfort zone.

Patrick Mahomes II, QB | KC (vs. HOU)

Before the injury, Patrick Mahomes II was just 3-of-8 against the blitz against the Browns (37.5% completion rate, his worst game of the season with at least five passes thrown in such spots). The Chiefs have their eye on the playoffs, so I’m not expecting an aggressive version of Mahomes should he suit up this week, leaving me in a position to recommend you plan around a different option if you’d otherwise look Mahomes’ way.

The box score could have looked a little better last week if a sideways pass is ruled to be forward, but such is life in this low-octane attack. Mahomes is a player that no team wants to face in the postseason and no fantasy team wants to play right now.

I’m plugging in Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold well ahead of him right now and not thinking twice about it, even if he’s fully cleared.

Russell Wilson, QB | PIT (at BAL)

In Weeks 14-15, Russell Wilson is averaging 9.9 yards per completion, a stretch in which George Pickens has been sidelined. Before his WR1’s injury, his average stood at 13.2.

I really do think it might be as simple as Pickens’ status (hamstring, DNP on Tuesday) when it comes to evaluating Wilson. In Week 11, we saw him fail in this matchup even with his top receiver at his disposal (205 passing yards with zero scores), a stat line that is certainly at risk of being repeated.

If Pickens clears all hurdles in advance of Saturday, Wilson will slide inside of my top 15 — but even in that instance, he’s not a must-start (I’ll have Bo Nix and Brock Purdy ranked ahead of him regardless).

Sam Darnold, QB | MIN (at SEA)

The Seahawks boast an average pass defense by any measure, and that makes this a reasonable bounce-back spot for Sam Darnold as he comes off of his first game in a month without multiple touchdown passes.

The 2024 version of Darnold is essentially 2023 Brock Purdy in that he has a strong supporting cast and is excelling, for the most part, at pulling the right levers at the right time.

He’s a low-end QB1 for me this week, with the thought being that we get the traditional 250 passing yards and two scores.

That stat line is fine if the rest of your team offers plus upside.

Spencer Rattler, QB | NO (at GB)

Do you know how hard it is to appear in four games, have a 30+ yard completion in each of those contests, and still average under six yards per pass attempt?

That’s the situation we have with Spencer Rattler. This roster opened the season with plenty of playmakers capable of making impact plays, but just about all of them will be watching this game.

There are a handful of backup QBs starting this week, and Rattler is the one I have the least confidence in.

Tommy DeVito, QB | NYG (at ATL)

Tommy DeVito has appeared in six straight games (96 pass attempts) without a touchdown pass. He’s dealing with a head injury, and the QB situation in New York is uncertain for the professional organization — for fantasy managers it’s easy.

You do something this offense can’t:

Pass.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB | MIA (vs. SF)

Tua Tagovailoa struggled last week, snapping a streak of three straight top-seven performances in the process. I do think we get a bit of a bounce-back week, in part because Miami returns home and in part because the 49ers have struggled to defend the red zone lately (13 straight TDs allowed before a few stops late last week).

My issue with committing in full and ranking Tagovailoa as the top pocket passer on this slate is the possession count. The Dolphins are the eighth slowest moving offense while the 49ers rank dead last. That gives a QB like Tagovailoa almost no room for error if ranked as a top-six QB, a projection I just can’t support.

He’s my QB10 this week, a starter in most formats and willing of a mulligan when it comes to last week.

Will Levis, QB | TEN (at IND)

Will Levis threw a pressured touchdown pass in the second quarter of Week 1’s loss to the Bears — he hasn’t thrown such a score since. That streak will continue through this week since he has been benched — during the holiday season — for Mason Rudolph.

The Titans are going to have to make some tough calls this summer, but it seems more likely than not that they will be restarting the rebuild on the offensive side of the ball.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Running Backs

Aaron Jones, RB | MIN (at SEA)

Aaron Jones has not been Josh Jacobs-levels of good, but he’s been great, and fantasy managers can feel good about counting on him this week against a defense that allows the fifth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs.

Jones has multiple receptions in four straight games and at least 15 carries in six of his past eight. This isn’t the type of running back with a clean path to top-five value, but safely sliding into the top 20 seems safe, and that’ll work this time of year.

Alexander Mattison, RB | LV (vs. JAX)

Alexander Mattison out-carried Ameer Abdullah 7-3 with Sincere McCormick going down early last week and profiles as this team’s leader in rush attempts against a vulnerable Jacksonville defense this week (24th in RB rushing TD%).

That said, last week wasn’t an intimidating matchup either, and yet, Desmond Ridder (28 yards on five carries) was as effective as it got on the ground for Vegas (RBs: 17 carries for 37 yards).

We’ve seen this Mattison story before (under 4.0 yards per carry in four straight games) and I’m not betting my fantasy season on him flipping the script in an offense that offers very little in terms of versatility.

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO (at GB)

Alvin Kamara made one of the better touchdown catches you’ll see from a running back last week and became the fourth player in NFL history with 50+ rushing TDs and 25+ receiving TDs in his career (Lenny Moore, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey).

The versatility and production have been special this season when you consider the numerous moving pieces. Unfortunately, he’s dealing with a groin injury and that means he likely won’t be at your disposal for Monday night

The Saints are taking a cautious approach, and I’d expect that to be the case for the remainder of the season. If he suits up again in 2024, I’m likely to read that as New Orleans is fully sold on its RB1’s health and, thus, starting him.

Ameer Abdullah, RB | LV (vs. JAX)

Ameer Abdullah had nearly as many receptions (seven) as rushing yards (eight) last week against the Falcons, and due to Sincere McCormick’s (ankle) injury, another viable PPR stat line is very possible against the fifth-worst scoring defense in the NFL.

There’s an inherent risk that comes with betting on the Raiders, but if you’re looking this far down the rankings, you’ve come to terms with some downside. The upside here is about as high as any streamer — we saw the Raiders come out with an ultra-conservative game plan on Monday night and I’d expect nothing different for the remainder of 2024.

I have Abdullah ranked as a low-end Flex, checking in alongside Tennessee’s Tyjae Spears.

Audric Estimé, RB | DEN (at LAC)

If you have a di, assign two numbers to each of Denver’s three running backs and have a roll.

That’s not my exact process, but it would give you about as good a shot as any.

Denver Broncos rushing production, Week 15 vs. Colts:

• Bo Nix: Eight carries for 23 yards (long: 16 yards)
• Jaleel McLaughlin: Seven carries for 21 yards (long: 12 yards)
• Javonte Willams: Six carries for 15 yards (long: four yards)
• Estimé: Five carries for 13 yards (long: six)
• Marvin Mims Jr.: One carry for zero yards

Audric Estimé has looked good in spurts during his rookie season, but without much of a path to double-digit touches, he ranks the lowest of this tightly bunched backfield for me this week.

Bijan Robinson, RB | ATL (vs. NYG)

Bijan Robinson ran for a season-high 125 yards last week against the Raiders and has at least 22 carries in back-to-back-to-back games (he didn’t have a single such game previously this season).

If you gave me Robinson’s role OR volume, I’d be talking him up as an RB1, the fact that we get both is what league championships are made of, especially when facing the third-worst rush defense by EPA.

I don’t love his four targets netting just 19 yards over the past two weeks, but I’m willing to acknowledge that we can’t have everything. I prefer Saquon Barkley’s offensive environment and Jahmyr Gibbs’ situations sans David Montgomery, but that’s it at the running back position for this week, for the rest of this season, and potentially for the next handful of years.

Blake Corum, RB | LAR (at NYJ)

Blake Corum gets his drive or two a game, and that’s cute. It’s also infuriating for those holding Kyren Williams’ bags, but that’s all it is. It’s just a wrinkle, not a feature.

The rookie has posted a sub-20% snap share in consecutive games and for the bulk of the season, outside of an outlier Week 13 win against the Saints, in which he was on the field for 32.7% of the Rams’ plays.

Corum has yet to clear eight touches in a game this season. While holding a handcuff was a logical strategy up to this point, you’re in go-for-it mode now. You don’t need to cut ties with Corum, but if you’re trying to maximize the number of Flex options you have in a do-or-die situation, I’d much rather use that roster spot for a home-run-hitting receiver or a secondary RB where there are questions about the starter.

As things stand right now, we have no reason to think that Williams will see anything less than his standard workload this week, which means that Corum doesn’t project as a usable piece.

Braelon Allen, RB | NYJ (vs. LAR)

The hope was that we would get a Bucky Irving-type late-season spurt from Braelon Allen, but that narrative was halted in a hurry. For some reason, the team opted to play Breece Hall last week, and that relegated Allen to a bench role.

The talented rookie was on the field for just 18.5% of offensive snaps, his third-lowest rate of the season and a role that resulted in just two opportunities. Allen may fill a role as a top-five handcuff next season, and that’ll be roster-worthy, but you can move on for a player with a more immediate role upside for right now.

Breece Hall, RB | NYJ (vs. LAR)

Breece Hall returned from a knee injury and was essentially the leader of a full-blown committee.

Not ideal.

Four different Jets handled New York’s first four carries last week, and that’s a problem. I still have Hall labeled as the leader in this backfield, and that makes him a Flex option when you consider the matchup (LAR: sixth-worst points per drive defense).

He averaged 4.6 yards per carry for his career with a 75.3% catch rate. He’s certainly not the lead back we were hoping for back in September, but I think you can still get away with playing him this weekend.

Brian Robinson Jr., RB | WAS (vs. PHI)

Sunday was the ninth time this season Philadelphia didn’t allow its opponent to pick up more than 30% of its third downs. I’ve got my concerns about Washington’s ability to extend drives and thus maximize the value of its RB1, but that, at some level, is nitpicking.

I’m starting Brian Robinson Jr. wherever I have him. His nine top-25 finishes this season are a strong mark on his résumé, and I liked that I saw some creativity in this offense a week ago. Early on, they schemed up something of a sprint screen to get him in space.

The pass was technically thrown backward, so you don’t get a point for the reception while the play-by-play summary just flags it as a 20-yard run, but the thought that went into just one play was encouraging.

The Eagles own the fourth-lowest TD rate to running backs, and that removes Robinson from my DFS player pool, but in re-draft situations, I’m calling his number.

Bucky Irving, RB | TB (at DAL)

This kid is the real deal. Bucky Irving had a 40+ yard carry in each of his past three games in which he saw 5+ carries and has a 15+ yard catch in three of his past four overall.

The rookie has been dealing with a back injury, but it didn’t sap him of any explosion last week; in a much more favorable spot this time around, counting on 14-18 touches and 100 scrimmage yards is plenty reasonable (nine finishes inside the top 24 this season).

The Cowboys are the fourth-worst rush defense by EPA, putting Irving in a spot to win in the traditional run, something that should alleviate Irving managers of any concerns when it comes to Rachaad White’s involvement.

Cam Akers, RB | MIN (at SEA)

Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case — and that’s where we stand right now.

Chase Brown, RB | CIN (vs. CLE)

Chase Brown has at least 20 touches in five of his past six games and continues to look the part of an elite fantasy asset. Whether it is chunk plays on the ground or uncovering in a scramble situation, Brown fits this offense like a glove. Expecting the Browns to slow him twice in one season is not something I’m willing to do (15 carries for 44 yards in Week 7 with 22 of those yards coming on a single burst).

I like the chances of this 24-year-old extending his streak of top-10 RB finishes to seven straight games in what should be a comfortable Cincy win (check back for the betting picks article this weekend).

Chuba Hubbard, RB | CAR (vs. ARI)

Chuba Hubbard is one touchdown away from joining Christian McCaffrey as the only Panther RB since 2010 with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 total scores in a season. Putting his name on a list with only McCaffrey is a bit dramatic, but what he has done as a part of a limited offense is nothing short of special.

With Jonathon Brooks done for the season (ACL), there’s no obvious carry competition. Given Hubbard’s contract extension, it’s logical to think that this team could shut him down, but until we hear that speculated, I’m planning on running Hubbard out there as a rock-solid RB2.

This season, Arizona is allowing the second-most yards per carry after first contact to opposing running backs. I think you can pencil in a nice rebound effort in what should be a more competitive game.

D’Andre Swift, RB | CHI (vs. DET)

That’s now two straight games without multiple catches and four straight without a score for D’Andre Swift. He entered last week’s loss to the Vikings listed as questionable with a groin injury, but his usage (20 touches for the first time since Week 9 at Arizona) would suggest that the team wasn’t the least bit concerned.

I think the touch count is what you need to hang your hat on and chase. The touchdowns are going to be spotty until Caleb Williams develops consistency, but if we can bank on 16+ carries and/or multiple catches, something he’s done in 10 of his past 11 games, I think we are looking at a viable RB2 more often than not.

David Montgomery, RB | DET (at CHI)

David Montgomery was the featured back on Thanksgiving in this matchup (21-9 carry edge over Jahmyr Gibbs), and his managers were hopeful for more of the same this week with their fate on the line — but that won’t be the case.

Dan Campbell announced on Monday afternoon that the veteran RB is scheduled to undergo season-ending surgery. We are awaiting a rehab timeline when it comes to our adjustment of dynasty rankings, but it goes without saying that Montgomery can safely be released in redraft formats.

For those of you still in the postseason of your fantasy leagues, I’m not expecting Detroit to plug in a secondary back to fill this void. Gibbs should get all of the work he can handle while more onus figures to be put at the feet of this passing game as well.

Derrick Henry, RB | BAL (vs. PIT)

Derrick Henry was scripted out of last week’s win, but in the opposite direction as you’d expect.

Usually, when “game scripted” is cited within a Henry write-up in the past, it’s been detailing a fall-beyond spot where the passing game is prioritized. Sunday’s bludgeoning of the Giants meant eight carries for Rasheen Ali and thus not a full workload for their bellcow.

In looking forward, I’m not at all concerned about the down Week 15 performance. The Steelers are an elite unit, but they do cough up rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs at the 10th-highest rate.

Henry is the best bet to run for 100 yards and score weekly — this week is no different.

Devin Singletary, RB | NYG (at ATL)

Devin Singletary got New York’s second carry last week, but that didn’t prove to be predictive of a heavy workload as he extended his streak of single-digit carry games to eight straight.

The veteran’s usage is more annoying to Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s managers than impactful otherwise. His 35% snap share from last week was his highest since Week 8 and still isn’t really enough to dent fantasy lineups. His two red-zone touches on Sunday were one more than he had in his previous seven games combined, so it’s something that I’m tracking but not something I’m overreacting to from a single game as a 16-point underdog.

De’Von Achane, RB | MIA (vs. SF)

De’Von Achane is a prime example of why we hold versatility in such high regard. His efficiency as a rookie was off the charts, and while that is a nice outlet to have, it’s tough to make a living on something like that that can fade with time.

The second-year back has gone four straight games without a 15-yard rush, something that would have seemed impossible just 12 months ago. As disappointing as those struggles are, Achane’s fantasy managers haven’t blinked.

Over those four games, he’s pulled in 24 passes for 160 yards and three scores — he’s essentially been a viable receiver who happened to get a dozen carries per game.

As long as Tua Tagovailoa is healthy, this year and moving forward, you’re starting Achane and banking on top-10 production at the position.

Gus Edwards, RB | LAC (vs. DEN)

Gus Edwards is simply too limited of a player to be trusted in fantasy if not in control of a well-defined role.

He has just two catches on his 2024 résumé and doesn’t have a game with more than 10 carries since Week 2. J.K. Dobbins ran for 96 yards and a TD at Denver in Week 6, but it took 25 carries (one of which gained 20 yards, or for the non-mathematically inclined, that means his other 24 carries picked up 76 yards). The Broncos own the top success rate against running backs this season, and that renders this backfield useless in my eyes.

Isaiah Davis, RB | NYJ (vs. LAR)

Isaiah Davis is a fifth-round pick out of South Dakota State who has seen his usage increase lately. His 19 touches over the past two weeks are interesting but not impactful in terms of how I’m approaching Week 16.

At the end of the day, he’s more of a drain on Breece Hall/Braelon Allen than a threat to realistically be ranked as a viable option. This recent Aaron Rodgers heater impacts his two star receivers and leaves a committee backfield feeding on the scraps.

Isiah Pacheco, RB | KC (vs. HOU)

Might Isiah Pacheco’s ability to prove his health be the determining factor in Kansas City earning the No. 1 seed? It’s possible. Patrick Mahomes seems to be iffy and, regardless of his status, this team is likely to count more on its bellcow as he rounds into midseason form.

The Texans own the fifth-worst red-zone defense in the NFL, thus giving them a chance to bail you out with a score (or two?) if his efficiency continues to lag (3.9 yards per carry this season). I have zero reservations about considering the angriest running back in the league as a solid RB2 across the board.

Isaac Guerendo, RB | SF (at MIA)

Remember all that time and energy we spent a week ago trying to get inside the head of Kyle Shanahan and the usage projection for a banged-up (foot) Isaac Guerendo?

Let’s be smarter.

Adam Schefter came out with confidence the day of the game last week and said that Guerendo was going to play. He doubled down by starting San Francisco’s RB1 in his most important fantasy league (yes, he’s one of us!).

In addition to the most plugged-in man in professional sports reassuring us, many were overlooking the obvious — this is the 49ers, and they rarely halfway use a running back.

San Francisco’s bell-cow role, percentage of RB touches:

• Weeks 1-2, Jordan Mason: 87.5%
• Weeks 10-11, Christian McCaffrey: 89.3%
• Weeks 14-15, Guerendo (minus Q4 of Week 14): 94.4%

Those aren’t “good” rates; they’re borderline psychotic in today’s game, but that’s what this team believes in. Instead of regressing their rates, as injuries suggest may be wise, the 49ers double (and triple) down.

Now, from a results standpoint, Week 15 wasn’t great. The 49ers mustered just six points, which meant that Guerendo’s 20 touches could only be somewhat impactful (75 yards).

I know it’s hard to overlook the results for the process this time of year, but no matter how your matchup played out last week, playing Guerendo against a defense that, entering the week, ranked 26th in rush EPA was the right call.

Until I have a reason to pivot, I refuse. The 49ers are struggling (their TD rate has fallen from 33.5% last season to 20.8% this year), but their willingness to commit in an elite way to a single player is going to suck me in every time.

With Guerendo now trending in the wrong direction, Patrick Taylor Jr. goes from relative unknown to legitimate fantasy Flex option. The fourth year back has just 14 carries this season and 79 on his NFL resume, but we did see him hold down a full-time role in college and projects as the favorite to get the work this week.

That’s not to say he’s a must start (Miami held Joe Mixon to 23 yards on 12 carries last weekend), but it’s rare to find projectable volume on your waiver wire this time of year and he certainly projects for plenty of opportunities this being labeled as a coin flip game.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET (at CHI)

Jahmyr Gibbs had “league winner” potential on his own merit, but with David Montgomery’s season coming to an end on Monday, this is a true wheels-up situation.

He turned nine carries into 87 yards in the Week 13 meeting with these Bears (21 carries for Montgomery), and the duo combined for 53 receiving yards in the narrow victory. It would be irresponsible to simply heap all of Montgomery’s usage onto Gibbs’ plate, so let’s not do that. How about we just label what the second year back is already doing as sustainable?

Is that fair?

Gibbs has been an RB1 in four of his past five games and could be the RB1 for the remainder of this season (and into next should Montgomery’s recovery lag).

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB | DEN (at LAC)

I’m not sure it’s consensus, but to my eye, Jaleel McLaughlin is the running back who projects best in this Denver backfield moving forward.

I’m not talking as much about the rest of this season as I am about the future. The Chargers held the Broncos RBs to 44 yards on 11 carries in the Week 6 meeting, proving more vulnerable to Bo Nix’s legs than anything (61 rush yards).

Los Angeles is a tough defense to crack in any situation, but when we are unsure of where the touches are going, there’s no reason to get cute. They are the best red-zone defense in the league (40% touchdown rate, nearly 17 percentage points better than the league average), so even if you knew which of these three RBs was going to get 50% of the backfield touches, I’m not sold that it would matter.

Sean Payton has settled on his QB of the future, and he’s a viable asset now — if we can get him to do that entering next season when it comes to his backfield, I’ll be forever grateful.

James Conner, RB | ARI (at CAR)

Carolina has allowed a touchdown on seven of eight red-zone trips over their past two games (previous three: 5-of-13), opening up a path for James Conner to potentially repeat last week, his first multi-TD effort of the season.

In theory, you’d expect a player with Conner’s résumé to slow with time, but I’m not seeing it. He ripped off a 53-yard run in the first quarter against the Patriots last week, his longest as a Cardinal, and if not for a shoestring tackle, it’s an 80-yard score.

He’s getting the usage in close and in the passing game. There’s nothing to not like in this profile, and you can feel great about continuing to count on Arizona’s star.

James Cook, RB | BUF (vs. NE)

Buffalo running backs last week, against one of the best defenses in the league, picked up 285 scrimmage yards and scored three times.

No big deal.

James Cook was a big part of that, notching his third game this season with 100 rushing yards and his fourth with multiple rushing scores. I’m willing to write off Ty Johnson’s usage last week as more of a matchup thing than anything else, so I’m not too worried about the role of Cook in this explosive offense. He’s been a top-12 producer at the position in four of his past five games.

This season, the Patriots allow points at the 10th-highest rate, the fourth-most yards to running backs before contact per carry, and the second-highest passer rating when targeting RBs. You’re thanking your lucky stars to have a piece of this offense and enjoying the ride.

Javonte Williams, RB | DEN (at LAC)

If you’re chasing Broncos backfield touches, I feel for you. I also admire your willingness to explore all potential options.

I also think you’re nuts.

The Chargers own the lowest running back rush TD rate in the league, and Javonte Williams hasn’t reached double figures in carries since Nov. 3; I truly believe that this is a hot-hand situation where the coaching staff has no idea who is going to lead in touches in a given week.

I have Williams ranked second in this backfield, but none of them grace my top 30 at the position.

Jaylen Warren, RB | PIT (at BAL)

In the Week 11 meeting with the Ravens, Jaylen Warren got his hands on the ball 13 times (68 yards). Could we see something like that this weekend, thus justifying a Flex ranking?

I’m not ruling it out, but we really don’t have much in the way of positive trends outside of that previous meeting. We know the touch count isn’t going to overwhelm as long as Najee Harris is active, and without scoring equity (one touchdown on 119 touches this season), there’s more risk than I’m willing to take on in what is traditionally a very low-scoring game.

I’d rather roll the dice on either back in Jacksonville or Tampa Bay, understanding that those committee situations have an unclear hierarchy and thus I can fall into a 15+ touch player.

Jaylen Wright, RB | MIA (vs. SF)

It’s fair to question how Jaylen Wright has been used this season (65 touches), but that’s not going to change anything. I’m of the belief that we could see him carve out a Jaylen Warren-like role next season, but that’s a projection to battle in June — he’s not helping you win a title over the next few weeks unless Miami elects to call his number if/when mathematically eliminated from postseason contention.

Jerome Ford, CLE (at CIN)

Jerome Ford, welcome back into our lives!

He took over for Nick Chubb last week and turned nine touches into 104 yards, highlighted by a 62-yard touchdown. We aren’t going to get anything close to that level of efficiency moving forward, but a versatile skill set is awfully appealing next to a conservative backup quarterback.

The Bengals are the eighth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, and I expect them to see a heavy dosage of this feisty 25-year-old. When injury reports are finalized, I expect to have Ford ranked as an RB2, not bad for someone who very possibly was on your waiver wire entering this week.

Joe Mixon, RB | HOU (at KC)

Joe Mixon has had a great season, and that is why the fantasy industry held its collective breath as he suffered an ankle injury last week.

Fortunately, he made a quick return to action and, on Monday, DeMeco Ryans doubled down on the health of his star running back, saying that there was nothing to worry about.

Good enough for me.

Mixon has a rushing touchdown or at least five targets in all 11 of his games this season. The Chiefs’ run defense is no joke (fifth best in rush success rate while allowing the second-fewest yards per carry after contact to running backs), but Houston is favored in this spot and should dictate the script.

I’m penciling in for Mixon with as many touches as any running back this week and feel fine in doing so. He deserves to be locked in as a RB1 in all formats, even against a strong front.

Jonathan Taylor, RB | IND (vs. TEN)

I’m sure there are people out there that were eliminated by Jonathan Taylor dropping the ball before crossing the goal line last week and, for those people, I’m sorry. This game of ours can be mentally taxing, and losing like that is going to take some time to recover from.

The Colts, albeit without Taylor or Anthony Richardson, managed to run for just 80 yards on 28 carries in the first meeting with the Titans. This Tennessee defense can have success, and I worry that they do against what is essentially a one-dimensional offense in Indy these days. But don’t confuse them as a shutdown unit that can’t be beaten — they’ve allowed at least three points per drive on five occasions this season.

With over 95 rushing yards in consecutive games, Taylor is a fringe RB1 this week. I still think he has an elite upside, something most are not giving him credit for. The Titans have allowed the highest passer rating on RB targets this season, and that has largely been what has been missing from JT’s profile (his last game with more than 12 receiving yards came in September).

I’m not calling for a vintage performance, but I’m not ruling it out. You’re starting him in all season-long spots, and I’ll have some DFS exposure.

Josh Jacobs, RB | GB (vs. NO)

Josh Jacobs had nine touches in the first six minutes on Sunday night, tying him for the most such touches in a game during the 2000s. It’s almost as if this team brought in the former Raider for a very distinct reason.

I still believe Jordan Love holds the key to unlocking a run through the NFC for this team, but balance would make that possible. Jacobs has four catches in three of his past five games, a level of versatility that locks him into the top 10 at the position — this matchup vaults him inside the top five.

Jacobs has 13 red-zone touches across his last two home games, and we could see more of the same with Green Bay heavily favored. The Saints are a bottom-three defense against RBs in rush EPA, success rate, and rush TD percentage. You got a bargain on draft day, and now you have a good chance to advance in your playoff bracket.

Justice Hill, RB | BAL (vs. PIT)

Justice Hill has at least four catches or a rushing score in four straight games. He doesn’t have more than 10 touches in a game this season, so let’s not get crazy, but having him rostered in an in-case-of-emergency role makes a lot of sense.

I’d rather play him and his locked-in 6-8 touches than throw the dart on a receiver I don’t truly think has much of a path to opportunities (I’m thinking the Tyler Locketts and Alec Pierces of the world).

Hill saw a team-high seven targets in the Week 11 game in Pittsburgh. If this game is as nip and tuck as the industry is projecting, his versatility could again prove valuable.

Kareem Hunt, RB | KC (vs. HOU)

I find it unlikely that you start Kareem Hunt moving forward, but the idea of stashing him is at least viable. He and Isiah Pacheco split 26 carries down the middle last week in Cleveland, and if Patrick Mahomes misses time, this offense could shift to a high-rush-rate unit to finish out their chase for the AFC’s top overall seed.

There’s not much of a path for Hunt to usurp Pacheco; if Mahomes does sit, he takes some scoring equity with him, and that’s why Hunt won’t grace my top 30 this week.

Kendre Miller, RB | NO (at GB)

Alvin Kamara is set to undergo more testing on his ailing groin, and that feels like coach-speak for “I’m looking to shut down a running back with over $14 million left on his contract.”

Reporting late in the week has that as likely to keep Kamara out of Week 16 at the very least and could possible be a laying of the foundation to end his season.

If I have this read correctly, Kendre Miller, a third-round pick just a season ago, will get the chance to build on the nine carries for 46 yards that he put on film last weekend against the Commanders.

This, of course, isn’t an ideal spot. The Packers own the seventh-best run defense in terms of yards per carry allowed to running backs and figure to be operating with a lead, something that could lead to a script that trends away from Miller (12 catches in 12 NFL appearances and 12.4 carries for every catch during his three seasons at TCU).

That said, this could be a Zamir White situation from last season, where a young back is loaded up with work in an effort to evaluate. If that is reported to be likely, he could sneak into my top 30 this week.

This is a quantity over quality play, but after four months of wear-and-tear on fantasy rosters, that puts him firmly in the Flex conversation.

Kenneth Walker III, RB | SEA (vs. MIN)

Kenneth Walker III missed last week with an ankle/calf injury and his status for this week is TBD. Zach Chabonnet filled the full version of Walker’s role in Week 14 (29 touches and seven catches on seven targets) and seemed poised to do so again in Week 15, but the game with the Packers was never close enough to really get a feel.

I don’t think we have a changing of the guard in Seattle should everyone be healthy; the idea of this being a committee and/or hot-hand situation is certainly there.

Walker has had his health issues in the past, and it’s not as if he was overwhelmingly productive before getting banged up (Weeks 8-13: 31.1% below PPR expectations).

Keep an eye on every update coming out of Seattle this week. They are going to want to establish the run to help neutralize Minnesota’s aggressive playcalling, but how they go about that is to be determined. Should we get a clean bill of health for Walker, he’ll be ranked ahead of Charbonnet for me, but the gap won’t be nearly what it was a month ago.

Kimani Vidal, RB | LAC (vs. DEN)

Kimani Vidal saw a season-high three targets last week and played two-thirds of the snaps. If we were in the middle of the season, I’d be advocating for a stash, but we aren’t, and I’m not.

The rookie’s usage ticked up in a 23-point blowout loss at the hands of the Bucs. The Chargers aren’t in a position to experiment with rotations in a meaningful way, so asking Vidal’s star to soar this late is a fool’s errand.

Is this a player I’ll be watching with a close eye over the next month as we prepare to put together 2025 rankings? You better believe it, but for the final few weeks of this season, there’s nothing that needs to be done.

Kyren Williams, RB | LAR (at NYJ)

Who among us doesn’t like a sandwich?

Exactly, no one. It’s compliment sandwich time for Kyren Williams managers who are hoping to ride Los Angeles’ bell cow to the promised land as the Rams chase a divisional title.

The role.

Williams is featured at a level that essentially no one can compete with these days. He enters Week 16 having notched 29 carries and multiple catches in consecutive games, joining Le’Veon Bell as the only players with such a streak since 2012.

If you gave me this role, a scrawny nerd who has been writing about fake sports for nearly two decades, I’d be somewhere on the low end of Flex considerations — we’re talking about a built-in floor that is nothing short of elite.

The bad.

Williams produced at a rate that was 33% under expectation on Thursday night. It was his third-worst showing of the season and the eighth time in 14 games in which his on-paper production has failed to reach what we would have expected from an average NFL back given his exact role.

The rebound.

“It was his third-worst showing of the season.” True. What’s also true is that all three of those games have come on the road against divisional opponents who have more familiarity with the intricacies of this offense than the other 28 teams in the NFL. Guess what? Three road divisional games are all you get for a season!

This season, Williams has produced 10.7% over expectation when not on the road against NFC West teams (39% under expectation in those three games), and that’s the version I think you can bank on seeing this week — a moderately efficient RB with the most advantageous role in the game.

Last week left you wanting more; I don’t think that’s the case here.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT (at BAL)

The Ravens and Steelers play slug fests, and that is the type of ugly game that can work in Najee Harris’ favor in terms of raw volume. He didn’t have much success running the ball in the first meeting (18 carries for 63 yards), and that’s to be expected against the second-best run defense in terms of success rate. However, he was able to get home with seven PPR points as a pass catcher.

I worry that the role in the passing game can be fleeting (one target over the past two weeks), but those concerns are lessened if George Pickens is back and threatening this vulnerable secondary deep down the field.

Jaylen Warren has yet to see his role expand in a prohibitive way, so I think you can feel fine about letting it ride with Harris as an RB2.

Nick Chubb, RB | CLE (at CIN)

Nick Chubb broke his foot over the weekend, bringing to a close what has been a lost season for anyone who rolled the dice on him off of last season’s knee injury (3.3 yards per carry).

The team doesn’t expect this injury to require surgery, and that’s good news, but we are firmly in a spot where we will need to see more than him squatting a small village to reinvest this summer with the injuries piling up on a soon-to-be 29-year-old body that has north of 1,500 NFL touches.

Patrick Taylor Jr, RB | SF (at MIA)

Patrick Taylor Jr.’s name popped onto fantasy radars once Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason were lost for the season. He now projects as the betting favorite to lead this backfield in work with Isaac Guerendo deemed, on Thursday, unlikely to play.

We have very little evidence of what the fourth year pro is or isn’t on the professional level, but we do know a few things. We know that his versatility is limited and that this system is fruitful for running backs, even as we move down the depth chart.

Since 2022, running backs in this Kyle Shanahan system average 1.82 yards per carry before first contact, second best over that stretch (Eagles) and 36.8% better than league average. In this a coin flip game, I’m counting on Taylor to get his hands on the ball, assuming Guerendo is officially ruled out, 14-17 times with some reasonable scoring equity against an ordinary scoring defense — he’s a low-end Flex for me that can bail you out if need be.

Rachaad White, RB | TB (at DAL)

This backfield is slowly moving away from Rachaad White, and I think that’s right, but it’s not going in that direction fast enough to render White useless. Bucky Irving played 62.5% of Tampa Bay’s first-quarter snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 6.

White didn’t help matters by losing a fumble last week in Los Angeles, but he salvaged the fantasy afternoon with an 11-yard touchdown catch as the Bucs poured it on late. I don’t have this projected as a committee situation, and that introduces risk to White’s profile, but as a road favorite with plenty of scoring equity, I don’t have a problem considering him a top-30 back in this matchup.

Even with a diminishing role, White has at least 10 carries in five straight in addition to his consistent usage in the passing game.

Raheem Mostert, RB | MIA (vs. SF)

Raheem Mostert returned from a hip injury last week against the Texans and got nine touches, but nothing that resulted in a meaningful rise in his rest-of-season fantasy stock

The 21-touchdown season feels like a lifetime ago. We’ve seen a few star running backs be kicked to the curb by one team and thrive with another — don’t forget that there are two sides to that coin.

Every season we see fantasy RBs fall off a production cliff (whether it is the result of a role change, a decline in physical abilities, or otherwise), and that needs to be considered next season as some of the top-ranked running backs are going to have some tread on their tires.

Mostert doesn’t need to be rostered in any format, a decision that was effectively made for you around Halloween. Mostert is a great example of the value you can gain by reacting early to what teams are telling you via usage.

Ray Davis, RB | BUF (vs. NE)

Ray Davis has failed to reach 30 yards from scrimmage in four of his past five games, and with Ty Johnson playing ahead of him on passing downs last week, his status as a one-for-one James Cook replacement is far from a certainty.

He’s a change-of-pace back, but if this offense is going to ask Josh Allen to wear the cape, there’s really no reason to roster any secondary back in Buffalo as they attempt to chase the conference’s top seed.

I think you can safely forget Davis’ name for the remainder of 2024, but I’d caution against doing so for 2025.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | NE (at BUF)

Rhamondre Stevenson is the football equivalent of the BRAT diet: simple, unexciting, and something that can make you feel OK when your stomach is upset.

In this case, our “stomach” is our fantasy backfield. Nothing he does is exciting (at least 15% of his carries have failed to gain yardage in eight straight games), but there are only four running backs this season with more 20-carry, one-catch games than New England’s featured back (Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, and Kyren Williams).

Stevenson hasn’t finished better than RB18 since doing so in Week 9. He could get there against the seventh-worst rush defense in terms of yards per carry before contact allowed to running backs, but even if he doesn’t, him sinking your lineup given his role is unlikely.

There’s value in that.

Rico Dowdle, RB | DAL (vs. TB)

Is there an offense that looks more different statistically now compared to preseason expectations than the Cowboys?

We entered the season praising Dak Prescott and wanting as much exposure to this passing game as possible, labeling the backfield as a bottom-tier room that would promote a pass-heavy script for Dallas.

As we sit here in Week 16, Rico Dowdle is looking to join Priest Holmes, Arian Foster, Nick Goings, and Fast Willie Parker as the only undrafted RBs in the 2000s with four straight 100-yard rushing games in the regular season.

Life comes at you fast. He’s been a top-20 running back in four straight games, and if the Cowboys are going to keep this game tight, it’s going to be because their bellcow is gashing the defense that allows the sixth-most yards per carry before contact to running backs.

Even with an optimistic spin on a few injury situations in my early Week 16 ranks, Dowdle is a fine RB2. If a few backs fall out of the ranks, he’ll move inside my top 15.

Roschon Johnson, RB | CHI (vs. DET)

Roschon Johnson (concussion) has now missed consecutive games and is a pretty clear cut for those still playing. He’s proven more than capable of cashing in his scoring opportunities (6 of 8 on carries inside the 5-yard line), but are we at all confident that those opportunities present themselves in this matchup should Johnson suit up?

I’m not. Johnson didn’t get a carry in the Thanksgiving meeting, and while the Bears managed to score 20 points, two of the touchdowns came from beyond 30 yards, a situation in which Johnson is rarely on the field.

If Johnson is active, my D’Andre Swift projection will dip a touch, but this bully back wouldn’t be close to my Flex rankings.

Saquon Barkley, RB | PHI (at WAS)

No one is complaining, but after consecutive games with both a 30+ yard rush and catch, Saquon Barkley doesn’t have a run gaining more than 25 yards or a catch picking up more than five in three straight.

Rumors were swirling last week that the MVP candidate was banged up, but Barkley refused to address the situation. There doesn’t seem to be much in the way of injury risk, but this is a player who hasn’t completed a full regular season since 2018, so make sure to keep tabs on this situation as this week progresses.

Kenneth Gainwell and Will Shipley are both worthwhile additions, with the threat of an injury at least on the radar, though the two would likely cannibalize one another should Barkley sit.

The star tailback piled up 198 scrimmage yards in the first meeting with Washington (the worst defense in the league in terms of yards allowed per contact), and as things stand right now, you’re locking him into your lineup — if we get an ownership discount, he makes for a very interesting pay up to be different RB in the DFS streets.

Sincere McCormick, RB | LV (vs. JAX)

I’m generally skeptical about players self-reporting news, but Sincere McCormick’s posting on Instagram that he’ll “be back next season” seems pretty cut and dry. The 24-year-old undrafted back out of UTSA was thrust into duty for a floundering offense for a few weeks and managed to pick up 4.9 yards per carry.

He had a 15+ yard touch in all four games in which he touched the football and is a name to keep in the back of your head for next season. It’s difficult to know what this backfield will look like in eight months and if this offense as a whole will be any better, but I was encouraged by the production we got in a tiny sample from McCormick.

Tank Bigsby, RB | JAX (at LV)

Tank Bigsby was cast aside last week in favor of Travis Etienne Jr., and while I have no doubt that there is the potential for that to flip in the other direction without any warning, does it matter?

We saw a few splash plays from the second-year back in the middle of the season, and I fear that those highlights have colored our opinion of him. The fact of the matter is that he looked lost as a rookie and, over his past six games, has had nowhere to run (0.09 yards per carry before first contact).

That’s a shade over three inches of room to operate. We could argue all day if that’s a running back stat (he can’t locate the holes) or an offensive line state (they can’t open up the holes), but one thing I know is that it is a running back production stat and that’s really all that matters.

In short, this profile is as straightforward as it is unappealing. If you’re in the market for a potentially below-average runner in a brutal offensive environment with an unknown role, Bigsby is your guy. If not, you have a chance at winning your matchup this week.

Tony Pollard, RB | TEN (at IND)

Tony Pollard came into Week 15’s game with the Bengals battling an ankle injury, but Tennessee called his number in a significant way early on (five carries and a touchdown on their first six plays from scrimmage).

That’s the good. The bad was the rest of the game. He finished with 17 carries for just 45 yards and is now producing 20% under expectations over his past three games. Combine his underwhelming performances (yet to be a top-20 RB in consecutive games this season) with a mini-Tyjae Spears breakout (10 touches and two scores last week) and we could be looking at a running back that sees his production fall off a cliff at the worst time possible.

Pollard has lost two fumbles over the past three games; volume has been his calling card this season, something that is very much at risk.

I currently have Pollard on my re-draft benches and will pivot if we get positive health news.

Travis Etienne Jr., RB | JAX (at LV)

You’re lying.

If you tell me with any level of confidence that you know who is getting the ball in Jacksonville this week, you’re outright lying. In their last five games played together …

Week 9:

Travis Etienne Jr.: 31.4% of snaps
Tank Bigsby: 54.9% of snaps

Week 10:

Etienne: 67.4% of snaps
Bigsby: 23.3% of snaps

Week 13:

Etienne: 52.2% of snaps
Bigsby: 46.3% of snaps

Week 14:

Etienne: 48.3% of snaps
Bigsby: 51.7% of snaps

Week 15:

Etienne: 70.1% of snaps
Bigsby: 28.6% of snaps

The Jags committed to Etienne from the jump last week (three carries and two targets on the first drive), but who is to say that we see that sustained?

The Raiders (22nd in rush defense EPA) sans Maxx Crosby and on short rest is obviously a plus spot, but the risk that comes with choosing wrong outweighs the reward in choosing right in a Mac Jones-led offense that has an implied total of 20 points this weekend.

Trey Benson, RB | ARI (at CAR)

Trey Benson was a logical pick-and-stash option all season long, but James Conner has stayed as healthy as ever, and that has left the rookie on the bench.

Benson isn’t close to stand-alone value (no more than five carries in a game over the past month) and doesn’t need to be held if you need value out of every player. That said, if you have a loaded team and/or a bye this week, I’m very interested in adding a handcuff like this as a luxury piece at the end of your roster.

Tyjae Spears, RB | TEN (at IND)

Tyjae Spears caught a 17-yard touchdown pass from Mason Rudolph last week, and that came after he punched in a short touchdown on the ground thanks to a very iffy pass interference call that put this team in a position to score.

Tony Pollard came into the week with a bulky ankle, but all reporting out of Tennessee seems to suggest that the 55/45 snap share edge with which Spears finished last week was more earned than injury-related.

Spears hasn’t gotten the chance to shine consistently on the NFL stage, but the returns in his limited usage through two seasons have been encouraging (78.4% catch rate and 5.2 yards per touch).

I want more news on Pollard’s ankle before labeling Spears as a Flex option for Week 16, but considering that the Colts are the second-best run defense by EPA, there’s a reasonably clear path for Spears to see a handful of check-down targets on Sunday.

With full-blown committees penciled in for the Jaguars, Jets, and Broncos, not to mention unappealing situations for the Giants, Raiders, and Chargers, there’s a reasonably clear path to top-30 value if we see reports suggesting that Spears could again handle half of the snaps this weekend.

Tyler Allgeier, RB | ATL (vs. NYG)

Kirk Cousins’ struggles have made this a chance to set up the running offense, a style of playcalling that I think we very well could see for a second consecutive week with the lowly Giants coming to town for Michael Penix Jr.’s debut

That said, Tyler Allgeier ran 12 times for 43 yards against the Raiders in that script. That’s it. He’s seen just two balls thrown his way over the past seven games; with Bijan Robinson as the featured back more often than not in scoring situations, there really isn’t much of a path for Allgeier to offer much for fantasy purposes.

I’m comfortable cutting most players without a fantasy-relevant role at this point, but Allgeier is the exception. With the Commanders and the Panthers left on the books, if you play through Week 18, I’m keeping Atlanta’s handcuff until this season concludes. I don’t think he holds stand-alone value this week or any of the next two, but he’s a Robinson rolled ankle away from being a top-15 RB for a team in the playoff mix.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB | NYG (at ATL)

Tyrone Tracy Jr. is basically doubling Devin Singletary in snaps these days, and while he’s been able to outrun his veteran backfield mate to a degree, he’s been unable to outrun the general stench of this offensive environment.

Over the past two weeks, Tracy has fewer PPR fantasy points than was expected in Week 14 alone (cumulative: 35.3% below expectations). It’s been more than a month since his last 20-yard touch, and with touchdowns the only thing saving him recently from his inefficiency, you’re walking a thin line if you’re counting on this offense to frequent the red zone.

We are looking at more of a Flex play in Tracy these days than the RB2 we had hoped he’d be, but at least his reasonable volume should stabilize him from falling any further against the 10th-worst run defense in terms of success rate this season.

Zach Charbonnet, RB | SEA (vs. MIN)

Zach Charbonnet is the most valuable Seahawks running back for the remainder of the season.

I feel fine in saying that with my chest for two reasons — he’s been great in Kenneth Walker III’s absence over the past two weeks, and even if the presumed starter returns to action, we could be looking at something close to a split backfield.

That means that we are looking at similar values the rest of the way if Walker is back this week while Charbonnet has the potential to fill the role that has seen him rank as RB2 over the past two weeks for at least another game.

The Vikings are a top-six run defense against RBs in terms of EPA, yards per carry, and rushing touchdown rate, making this close to a no-fly zone if we get whispers of a split situation nearing kickoff. I’m comfortable in one bell-cow Seahawk back posting top-20 numbers, as I think this offense will look to minimize Geno Smith’s volume, but if we are dividing a volume-based role multiple ways, I don’t see a way in which I rank either as a must-start for Week 16.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen, WR | CAR (vs. ARI)

Jalen Coker (quad) returned to action last week, and that means we are splitting a slot role that was fringe-worthy in the first place in terms of my confidence. If Bryce Young is going to develop, I’d expect a very well-thought-out plan of attack down the stretch of this season, something like what we saw on his first 10 passes last week:

• Jalen Coker: Three targets (two catches for 19 yards)
• Chuba Hubbard: Three targets (three catches for 16 yards)
• Xavier Legette: Two targets (two catches for seven yards)
• Thielen: Two targets (one catch for five yards)

I’m not confident at all in the hierarchy of targets in Carolina to close this season, nor am I confident in Young paying off those targets with fantasy points. I’d hang onto Thielen with a plus schedule the rest of the way, but I’m doing so with very little in the way of expectations.

A.J. Brown, WR | PHI (at WAS)

 

A first-quarter touchdown?

A touchdown dance with Jalen Hurts?

After a week full of speculation, A.J. Brown seemed pretty happy with the passing game that he criticized (8-110-1 against the Steelers). He was clearly the focal point of this game plan (six targets on Hurts’ first 10 throws); while some of that might be a squeaky-wheel situation, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to feature a borderline unguardable physical specimen.

When all was said and done, the Eagles were ultra-impressive in their 27-13 win over the Steelers, and I don’t think it’s a mistake that they took down one of the league’s best defenses by funneling 74.2% of their targets to their two top receivers.

Saquon Barkley was banged up during this game, and that certainly changed the composition of this offense to a degree, but I saw enough to consider both receivers in Philly as viable options with Brown (32% target share in the Week 11 meeting with the Commanders) returning to WR1 status.

Alec Pierce, WR | IND (vs. TEN)

Alec Pierce (head) was an early exit last week after a tough fall and his iffy status is more than enough to justify looking elsewhere. He’s largely unproven as a target earner and is playing in an offense with the most sporadic QB in the league.

The ability to stretch the field is a real skill, and if we know anything about Richardson, it’s that he has the arm to hit the end zone from anywhere. However, Pierce should be ignored in all season-long formats — he’s exactly the reason God created DFS.

Amari Cooper, WR | BUF (vs. NE)

When the season concludes, I’ll run through all of the numbers and highlight some of the most impressive, quirky, or underwhelming nuggets from the season. I suspect that Amari Cooper, with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid both at less than full strength, earning exactly zero targets (15 routes) in a game in which the Bills scored 48 points will be on the list.

I can’t really explain it other than saying that the Lions made a point of taking him away and that Josh Allen is playing at such an elite level that he simply opted to take the path of least resistance (114 receiving yards for Ty Johnson being as good an example as that as you’ll find).

Cooper has yet to make anywhere near the impact I thought he would when this trade went down; at this point, I’m done assuming any sort of ramp-up during the regular season. He’s yet to reach a 54% snap share with the Bills, and given the number of ways this offense can beat you (not to mention what could be a very run-heavy script as massive favorites with newfound one-seed life), Cooper is a shaky bet at best.

I have both him and Coleman ranked as WR4s this week, preferring the late-season peak of Jalen McMillan over both of them.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET (at CHI)

Amon-Ra St. Brown is five catches away from joining Larry Fitzgerald as the only two players with multiple seasons of 100 catches and 10 touchdowns within their first four NFL seasons. Part of the fun last week was a 66-yard score on a 3rd-and-17 play where you’d assume that the defense’s sole focus is on not letting St. Brown beat them.

But alas, the same way Steph Curry gets off triples, St. Brown vacuums in highly efficient targets. He was the only Lion to reach 50 receiving yards in the first meeting with the Bears, and his usage only figures to increase with David Montgomery (63.6% of the carries in that game) done for the season.

Brandin Cooks, WR | DAL (vs. TB)

Brandin Cooks’ playing time is inching up, but he’s simply going to run out of time. We saw signs of decline last season; even if you think there is gas left in the tank, this Cooper Rush-led offense doesn’t have much of a path to accessing that.

In his seven appearances this season, Cooks is averaging just 0.69 yards per route — he’s well off of fantasy radars in all formats at this point.

Brian Thomas Jr., WR | JAX (at LV)

Brian Thomas Jr.’s accolades are going to pile up as we come down the stretch, and they started last week as he set the franchise record for receiving yards by a rookie. He passed Justin Blackmon for that mark — the hope is that his career is what we thought Blackmon would do.

It’s not hard to put his name on the short list of the most promising rookie WRs in recent memory. He is one of three rookie receivers to have four 5-85-1 games in his first season, joining Ja’Marr Chase and Amon-Ra St. Brown, two WRs who will be first-round fantasy picks with ease next season.

As for the quarterback issues, they aren’t there. OK, they are, obviously, but not at the level you expect. Thomas’ expected PPR points over his past five games have been trending in the exact direction you’d want: 4.7, 11.9, 18.0, 20.6, and 26.1.

He has plenty of confidence, lacks competition, and is looking to make a statement as his first professional season comes to an end. Oh, and he gets the Raiders defense that is without Maxx Crosby and on a short week.

On the fast track.

There are plenty of receivers who I am downgrading significantly due to their quarterback situation — Thomas is not one of them.

Calvin Ridley, WR | TEN (at IND)

In the limited sample with Mason Rudolph this season, Calvin Ridley has as many targets as any two of his teammates combined, but the volume has been empty on all levels.

Titans pass-catchers production with Rudolph, 2024:

• Calvin Ridley: 38 targets, 20 catches, 284 yards, zero TDs
• Chig Okonkwo: 22 targets, 15 catches, 142 yards, zero TDs
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: 16 targets, 11 catches, 108 yards, three TDs
• Josh Whyle: 14 catches, 12 targets, 121 yards, one TD
• Tyler Boyd: 12 targets, nine catches, 84 yards, zero TDs

The tight end split is interesting if you’re trying to get exposure to this game to be different in a DFS setting, but outside of that, you’re fading all parts of this passing game. The problem here is that the least targeted players are the most fantasy-efficient — in a low-volume offense, that’s not going to cut it.

There are three big-play receivers this week working with backup QBs, and I have them ranked back-to-back-to-back in the low 40s at the position (Jerry Jeuy and Xavier Worthy being the other two).

Cedric Tillman, WR | CLE (at CIN)

The Browns are “hopeful” that Cedric Tillman can return from a concussion that has resulted in three missed games, but I can’t imagine a situation in which you’re rolling the dice on a player like this in an offense that went from recklessly aggressive to mind-numbingly conservative with their change under center.

Tillman racked up 81 yards in the first meeting with the vulnerable Bengals, and we know this secondary can be had. That’s not the point. The point is that I’m not risking three months of hard work to reach the playoffs on a receiver who might hopefully be healthy in the WR3 role for an offense on a dead team and an underwhelming QB.

Other than that, I don’t have anything wrong with Tillman in Week 16.

CeeDee Lamb, WR | DAL (vs. TB)

CeeDee Lamb has six games with at least a dozen targets this season — he joins 2023 CeeDee Lamb as the only Cowboy ever to do that in a season. He set the franchise record with seven such games a year ago and could match it this weekend if they are playing behind for the bulk of this game as is expected.

If you need tangible proof of what this sort of volume looks like, here are the passing plays in succession detailing how Dallas found paydirt on a second-quarter drive last week:

• A 20-yard pass to Lamb
• A 28-yard pass to Lamb
• A 14-yard TD to Lamb (nice adjustment on an end-zone target)

Lamb has been a top-15 receiver in four straight games. While this offense isn’t exactly high-powered, Cooper Rush is doing enough to keep his WR1 in the fantasy WR1 conversation.

Christian Watson, WR | GB (vs. NO)

Christian Watson has just a pair of top-30 finishes this season; while the matchup isn’t prohibitive, he’s pretty clearly not viewed as a consistent threat by this offense (nine catches over the past four weeks).

That said, if you’re grasping for straws and/or have a player ruled out late on Sunday and are making a Monday night dart throw your backup plan, Watson does have a 35+ yard catch in each of his past three games. My fear isn’t his ability to exploit this secondary as much as it is Green Bay’s need for such a role as a double-digit point favorite.

Cooper Kupp, WR | LAR (at NYJ)

We see elite-receiver tandems on occasion, but they are rare. There are instances in which, for a period of time, both alpha receivers are functioning at the peak of their powers, and we get something truly special.

But more often than not, one sees their stock rise while the other fades, making it only a matter of time until the narrative flips and the incumbent becomes the second read, the undercard, and the player whose name carries more weight than their production.

• 2003 with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce
• 2009 with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin
• 2017 with Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson

There is a changing of the guard that is uncomfortable for the nostalgic and difficult to pinpoint at the moment. It’s much easier to do what I am doing here and find endpoints with 8-21 years of hindsight in my pocket.

Are we there in Los Angeles? Is Cooper Kupp now Robin to Puka Nacua’s Batman?

I’m not far from going there. I’m not making sweeping claims as a reaction off of Kupp’s second catch-less effort of his career. But the recent advanced profile paints a convincing picture and certainly has me believing that these two are ranked in different stratospheres entering 2025.

Before I get into the long-term analysis (hey, I have to provide value to everyone, not just those fortunate enough to still be chasing a 2024 title, right?), here’s why you should still be starting the veteran receiver.

On the whole, without segmenting certain predictive areas, Kupp’s metrics are still on par with last season, if not ahead. His productivity relative to expectations falls within the 5% margin for error, just like it did in 2023, while his PPR points per target (1.75) are eerily similar (1.73).

Kupp’s overall yards per route are up 12.8%. Like the examples listed above, the veteran WR1 doesn’t fall off a cliff by traditional standards, he’s just not what he was, and that’s where the deeper dive can shed some predictive light as we begin to think about 2025 values.

• First six games: 32.4% on-field target share and a 29% red-zone target rate
• Last four games: 25.5% on-field target share and an 8.3% red-zone target rate

In the snapshot of 2024, that’s a disturbing trend that is unlikely to reverse course as Nacua’s stock takes off, but it’s not the most damning. Think about the best four WRs in the sport.

Pause.

Do it and jot it down.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Nacua, Nico Collins, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase populated the majority of your list, if not all of it. Those also happen to be the top four names on the receiver leaderboard this season when it comes to yards per route run when their quarterback is under pressure.

That tracks, right? When a signal-caller is feeling the heat, he’s going to seek a comfort target, and why would he not go where he is most comfortable?

Kupp’s yards per route when his QB is pressured by season:

• 2021: 2.58 yards
• 2022: 2.05
• 2023: 1.80 (Nacua: 1.64)
• 2024: 0.74 (Nacua: 3.04)

Oh boy. Kupp has been falling down my preliminary 2025 rankings for a month now, and I’m officially worried — for next season. There’s enough meat on the statistical bone to go back to him this week and for as long as your 2024 extends after last Thursday’s airball.

However, write it in the notes section of your phone now: Kupp isn’t likely to be the price of admission next season.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN (at LAC)

Courtland Sutton was shut out on 28 routes against the Saints in Week 7 — he has at least six catches or a touchdown in every game since.

This is a tough matchup, and without consistent help on the perimeter, it’s very possible that the Chargers allocate all of their resources toward stopping Denver’s WR1. That said, they couldn’t stop him from scoring in Week 8, and the door is wide open for a single target to make Sutton a viable WR2.

With Bo Nix willing to take shots, Sutton has racked up 115+ air yards in three straight games (and five of seven), not a bad path to glory against the worst defense in terms of deep pass TD%. Now, that stat needs to be contextualized — Los Angeles isn’t challenged downfield a ton, but the point remains.

There’s always going to be risk when counting on a receiver who relies on a rookie QB in a tough matchup, but it’s unlikely that you have three receivers who I prefer over Sutton and his eight straight top-30 finishes.

Darius Slayton, WR | NYG (at ATL)

Darius Slayton had a moment earlier in the season with Malik Nabers sidelined. However, that was ages ago, and it’s simply neglect if you’ve yet to rid your roster of him at this point.

That’s not me saying that Slayton is a bad player or not capable of making splash plays. He’s just not at all in a spot to mean much in our game.

Slayton hasn’t cleared 10 expected points since the beginning of November and has managed just five receptions of his 15 targets over the past month. To make my lineup at this point in the season, I need to be able to talk myself into passable quality and quantity in the target department.

I can’t get there in either regard for Slayton in this excuse of an offense.

Darnell Mooney, WR | ATL (vs. NYG)

How does it feel to be a Darnell Mooney manager? It’s the full range of emotions. He’s basically like one of those sappy RomComs — you know the ups and downs are going to be a part of a ride that ultimately ends where you expected.

• There are only three receivers with more games of 85 receiving yards and a TD catch than Mooney this season (Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, and CeeDee Lamb)
• There are only three viable fantasy receivers with more games turning over 20 routes into under 30 receiving yards than Mooney this season (Elijah Moore, Xavier Worthy, and Deebo Samuel Sr.)

Over his past nine games, Mooney is averaging 3.7 catches with a touchdown reception once every 4.5 contests. During his four seasons in Chicago, he was good for 3.6 grabs per game with a TD once every 4.9 games. RomCom Mooney is ending his season exactly like we thought — it’s been a weird ride, but here we are, in a spot where, like in the preseason, we aren’t excited about counting on him.

Davante Adams, WR | NYJ (vs. LAR)

It only took all season, but we FINALLY got the vintage version of Davante Adams that we’ve been starved for. The instances over the past 10 years in which a player had 190 receiving yards and multiple receiving touchdowns in a single half:

• Davante Adams on Sunday vs. the Jaguars
• Ja’Marr Chase in Week 10 vs. the Ravens
• Tyreek Hill in 2020 vs. the Bucs
• Odell Beckham Jr. in 2016 vs. the Ravens

The Week 15 performance was about as perfect as it gets. He even got you a bonus point — he had a touchdown correctly overturned (down at the one-yard line) and followed it up with a score on the next play, getting you two receptions and a score for the price of one!

Adams has seen six end-zone targets over his past five games and has seen at least 11 balls thrown his way in five of six. If you’ve managed to get to this point with Adams on your roster, you’re in a good spot.

You also have support. I have Adams in a dynasty league that is in the semifinals — let’s see if we can piece together a late-season run for the ages!

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | KC (vs. HOU)

If you’re of a certain age, the name “DeAndre Hopkins” holds theoretical value, but that’s about it for the fantasy playoffs.

Patrick Mahomes has been under center for the past two weeks and yet Hopkins has turned 15 targets into just 78 yards, a level of efficiency that is troubling on many levels. The raw volume is good to see (one target every 3.3 routes in those two games), but if that falls off the table, a truly low floor — with Mahomes active — presents itself.

Without Mahomes?

The fact is, we don’t know what “without Mahomes” looks like. What we do know is that this team wasn’t relying on its passing attack to put it in position for the AFC’s top seed with one of the best QBs in the history of the earth on the roster … is Andy Reid just waiting for Carson Wentz to unleash things?

I doubt it.

I didn’t think we’d be looking at playoff decisions where I’d pick Jalen McMillan over Hopkins, but that’s where I’m at.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WR | SF (at MIA)

Deebo Samuel Sr. has 10 career games with 20+ routes run and under seven PPR points; Four of those instances have come in the past month. How, in three months, have we gone from “versatile weapon with an increased role expectation as a result of injuries” (if I didn’t write that exact sentence in September, I had to have come close) to “diva that is struggling even when prioritized by the coaching staff”?

I wish I had that answer for you. Despite being featured last week (three targets and a rush attempt on Brock Purdy’s first nine snaps under center), Samuel left us out to dry. Again.

Father Time can be an unforgiving soul, but Samuel is 28 years old and showed signs in the middle of this season that he still had “it.” During a four-game run, he posted three stat lines that featured a 30+ yard catch and at least three rush attempts.

But now here we are. Second-guessing any consideration of Samuel if you somehow have survived two straight scoreless months and five straight sub-25 receiving-yard games. The theoretical upside remains there, but nothing that he (or this team) is telling us suggests that he’s ready to break out of this funk.

When taking a look under the statistical hood of a fantasy asset, I look for signs of hope and settle if no such data presents itself. Generally speaking, I go in looking for something to hang my hat on, especially with a player who has seen his production trend in one direction without an obvious reason why.

Is Samuel leaving air yards on the field? That is, are there high-upside targets in his profile that just aren’t currently giving us much in the way of production?

Nope.

With the air yards lagging, maybe there is PPR upside to chase? While the deep shots might be a thing of the past, this tough-to-tackle commodity still carries upside if he’s an oft-targeted player, even if the passes aren’t thrown very deep.

Surely this has to be the case with the array of injuries that this team has dealt with.

Nope.

Samuel was an elite threat to do damage in scoring situations last season. Maybe he’s still getting those dangerous touches and just running cold on converting them?

Nope.

Samuel did drop what could have been a touchdown last week, and if he cashes that slant route in, the story is likely completely different. I understand that. But he didn’t, and it’s not.

You can chase the 2023 version of Samuel all you like and maybe you catch lightning in a bottle. It could happen.

But everything is trending in the wrong direction, and with the Dolphins posting a top-10 defense in terms of red-zone efficiency and pass-touchdown percentage, not to mention a recent spike in pressure rate (Samuel’s on-field target share when Purdy is pressured is down from 17.8% last season to 12.9% this year), this matchup doesn’t profile as the get-right spot you’re searching for.

Demarcus Robinson, WR | LAR (at NYJ)

We were monitoring a shoulder injury for Demarcus Robinson early last week (DNP on Monday and Tuesday), but he ultimately suited up against the 49ers and filled his traditional role (Week 15: 78.6% snap share, 2024: 81.6%).

Having Robinson at close to full strength is nice, but it doesn’t matter. The Rams have won three straight games, and during that run, the Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp tandem has vacuumed in 59.5% of the team’s targets; a crazy rate when you consider that there is a Kupp zero-catch effort in that sample.

Robinson had moments as a reasonable WR handcuff of sorts this season. But with both stars ahead of him currently healthy, there’s no reason to hold. This is a receiver who has played for three franchises over the past four years and could well again be on the move this summer.

Barring a featured role, Robinson won’t be a top-50 receiver for me next season.

DeMario Douglas, WR | NE (at BUF)

DeMario Douglas has reached 70 receiving yards just once this season, but there is some very low PPR Flex appeal here if you’re in a deeper format. The fact that he has caught 85.7% of his targets over the past three games is a step in the right direction, but more importantly, the Bills want him to produce.

OK, so that may be a bit strong, but Buffalo encourages opponents to take their medicine with the short passes (lowest opponent aDOT this season). The Patriots have been trailing for 61.3% of their offensive snaps this season (seventh highest rate), thus putting a player like Douglas in position to potentially see 6-8 targets.

It won’t be exciting, but a cheap way to double-digit PPR points is certainly within the reasonable range of outcomes.

DeVonta Smith, WR | PHI (at WAS)

Good offenses produce; great ones adapt.

DeVonta Smith is coming off his best game of the season (11-109-1 against the Steelers), and while the production is nice, I find the consistent role change as interesting as anything,

• Week 9 vs. Jaguars: 16.0 aDOT
• Week 10 at Cowboys: 13.3 aDOT
• Week 11 vs. Commanders: 8.2 aDOT
• Week 14 vs. Panthers: 6.8 aDOT
• Week 15 vs. Steelers: 5.5 aDOT

Sometimes we see a player fill a very different role for a week here or a matchup there, but this certainly seems like a conscious decision made by this coaching staff. Smith wasn’t good the first time these teams met (30.9% production under expectation), but if you believe that this team is working to introduce this new route structure, there’s reason to be optimistic.

While Jayden Reed, Deebo Samuel Sr., and DK Metcalf are seeing production trending away from them, Smith’s trajectory is more promising; that is why I’d play him over all of those receivers.

Diontae Johnson, WR | BAL (vs. PIT)

This is a mess. Diontae Johnson was suspended last week, and while “this is not an extension of the suspension,” we have a situation where the team has “mutually agreed with Diontae Johnson to excuse him from team activities this week.”

It’s not rare for a trade made at the deadline to not work as scripted, but this?

Baltimore seems to have gone out of its way to acquire a cancer, and that is just a bizarre happening for a team with Super Bowl dreams.

This is a receiver with a 1,100-yard season on his résumé and is still on the right side of 30 years old. On the surface, that looks like a profile we should keep tabs on this offseason. But could this just be another example of a Pittsburgh receiver phasing out of the league earlier than expected?

DJ Moore, WR | CHI (vs. DET)

The Bears have dialed back DJ Moore’s route depth, and while that puts a cap on his ceiling (held without a 20-yard catch in five of his past seven games), Caleb Williams has proven capable of getting him the ball efficiently.

• Week 11 vs. Packers: Seven targets and a 100% catch rate
• Week 12 vs. Vikings: Seven targets, TD, and a 100% catch rate
• Week 13 at Lions: 16 targets and a TD
• Week 14 at 49ers: Eight targets and a 75% catch rate
• Week 15 at Vikings: Eight targets and a 100% catch rate

In PPR formats, I think you can Flex Moore with a reasonable level of confidence. The Bears are struggling to run the ball and figure to be playing from behind this week, a game script that should put enough volume at the feet of their WR1.

Moore was able to post a 44.4% target share on Thanksgiving in this matchup, a rate that I think has almost no chance of repeating. Much of those numbers came late with the Lions in a shell, and Detroit nearly blew the game — getting their hands on Moore figures to be a priority for all 60 minutes on Sunday.

Moore’s elevated floor makes him my favorite Bear receiver, and my projected pass volume for this offense lands him in the same tier with a completely different receiver on the other sideline in Jameson Williams.

DK Metcalf, WR | SEA (vs. MIN)

DK Metcalf was on the field for 92.9% of Seattle’s snaps on Sunday night but saw just 27 air yards worth of targets, the second-lowest mark of his career. He’s been able to earn looks while Jaxon Smith-Njigba breaks out (6.5 targets per game over his past six), and in the past, that would be enough.

But, I’m not sure if you’ve heard, we live in the present, not the past.

Over that six-game run, Metcalf has been targeted on just 12.5% of his red-zone routes. For some context, he’s never had a season check in under 32% in that metric — this is where, historically, he’s paid the fantasy bills.

Geno Smith (he and Jameis Winston are tied for the most end-zone interceptions thrown this season with four — Smith had three in his career before this year) isn’t quite struggling like Kirk Cousins right now. In a vacuum, I’d take Metcalf over Drake London, but both of those receivers currently have a floor that I would have labeled as illogical two short months ago.

Smith’s knee injury should also be considered in this matchup, in which he is going to be asked to shift quickly. I’m not saying you bench Metcalf for any receiver on your bench with a pulse, but I’d be considering all options — he’s outside of my top 20 at the position this week, ranking alongside other struggling players like Jaylen Waddle and Deebo Samuel.

Dontayvion Wicks, WR | GB (vs. NO)

Dontayvion Wicks has youth and athleticism on his side, something that cracks most lineups, but it’s just kind of the expectation in Green Bay these days. Wicks hasn’t run 25 routes in a game since September, and with Jordan Love being more sporadic than we anticipated, counting on him to support a receiver in this role is more optimistic than I’m willing to be.

Heck, I’m having trust issues with every player on Green Bay’s roster not named Josh Jacobs.

Wicks can be added for next week should a Packers receiver go down on Monday night, but outside of that, there’s no need to take on this risk.

Drake London, WR | ATL (vs. NYG)

Drake London hauled in a 30-yard touchdown on Monday night, the longest pass (23 air yards) resulting in a score during his young career. It was a good thing he got on the board early — after another Kirk Cousins interception, the Falcons committed essentially to the football equivalent of the four-corners offense: 37 rush attempts against 17 passes.

Atlanta was able to get away with the game plan because of an inferior opponent, and while I don’t think that’s a sticky offensive game plan in 2024, it could last another week with the Falcons opening as a 10-point favorite against the Giants.

I expect this offensive structure to tank the value of Darnell Mooney more than London, but there’s no overlooking the risk that is present given Cousins’ struggles. London is currently a low-end WR2 for me this week, checking ahead of Brian Thomas Jr. — yes, I’m drawing the line at Mac Jones when it comes to QBs I trust more than Cousins right now.

Elijah Moore, WR | CLE (at CIN)

DFS play of the week?

It’s possible. Elijah Moore is pretty clearly the underneath option in this Cleveland offense, and that role has spiked in value over the last two weeks.

First of all, the matchup. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t good nor are they even really trending in a great direction, but they are at least forcing the opposition to check down. Twice in the past three weeks, the Bengals have seen their opponent’s average depth of throw check in under 5.5 yards (through 12 weeks, they had an opponent aDOT under 6.4 yards just once).

The change under center also puts food on Moore’s plate. The food might not be fully cooked, but at least it’s there, and that gives him a chance to eat. Since the beginning of last season, the Browns have had three different quarterbacks appear in at least 10 games:

• Deshaun Watson: 81.4 passer rating, 3.1% TD rate, and 8.2 aDOT
• Jameis Winston: 80.6 passer rating, 4.4% TD rate, and 8.9 aDOT
• Thompson-Robinson: 42.6 passer rating, 0.7% TD rate, and 6.0 aDOT

Moore has been close to invisible in three of his past four games, and that could well be the case again this week, but I bumped him inside of my top 50 at the position (and on my DFS WR punt radar) on Tuesday when the quarterback change became official.

Garrett Wilson, WR | NYJ (vs. LAR)

With Davante Adams breaking out last week, Garrett Wilson posted his first game this season with single-digit expected PPR points (9.7). Even if you think that all is right in New York, that Aaron Rodgers has found himself, and that the vintage connection with Adams is sticky for the short term, you’re still playing Wilson as a fine WR2.

In Adams’ last strong Packer season, Robert Tonyan caught 11 touchdown passes, and I’ve long said “What is Garrett Wilson but a rich man’s Robert Tonyan?”

It’s getting overlooked because of the historic second half from Adams, but Week 15 started with all three of Rodgers’ first-drive passes going in the direction of Wilson (41 yards, TD).

The Rams are a bottom-10 defense when it comes to defending the deep ball in yards per attempt, yards per completion, interception rate, and touchdown percentage — Wilson is in a position to make a single target or two count in a significant way if you’re fearing his overall volume.

I’m not sold on the Jets being a juggernaut, but I’m not benching either of their top receivers.

George Pickens, WR | PIT (at BAL)

George Pickens (Grade 2 hamstring injury) missed the first game of his career in Week 13, and his absence extended through last weekend.

The upside is no secret (six finishes as a WR2 or better), but we can’t let that distract you from three finishes outside of the top 55 receivers, a floor that is at an increased risk of impacting Week 15 if a compromised version of him is trying to play.

Generally speaking, I love the way this Russell Wilson-led offense looks for Pickens. With the veteran calling the shots, Pittsburgh’s WR1 has produced 17.2% over expectations and has eight end-zone targets in six games.

There are various injuries peppering the board this week, many of which I’m happy to avoid altogether — this is not one of those spots. Back in Week 11 when these teams first met, Pickens finished with an 8-89-0 line and earned 37.5% of the targets.

We’ve seen him kill AFC North foes in the past (past 12 divisional games: 41.5% production over expectation), and I’m going to be making excuses to play him if we get anything close to optimism as kickoff nears.

Stay tuned.

Hollywood Brown, WR | KC (vs. HOU)

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported over the weekend that Hollywood Brown would be “likely to return during the regular season” from his SC joint injury that has delayed his debut with the team up to this point.

That’s interesting but unlikely to be impactful for our purposes. That’s not to say that he can’t be of service during Kansas City’s pursuit of a third straight championship, but asking the team to overextend him in short order is far too optimistic for my liking.

As a player, Brown carries an obvious upside. I mean, would they let him change his name to “Hollywood” if he didn’t? He caught at least six touchdown passes in all three of his seasons with the Ravens, and while his time with the Cardinals wasn’t fantasy-friendly, he did clear 16 PPR points in three of his first five games.

All of that said, I don’t think we can assume that he fits this offense like a glove before we get a proof of concept. Brown’s production relative to expectation has declined each season of his career; my feeling here is that any usage over the next three weeks will be more of a tune-up than a full reveal.

Brown’s production relative to PPR expectation by season:

• 2019 (Ravens): +19%
• 2020 (Ravens): +6.2%
• 2021 (Ravens): -9.2%
• 2022 (Cardinals): -12.2%
• 2023 (Cardinals): -21.9%

Jakobi Meyers, WR | LV (vs. JAX)

You know we are deep into the NFL season when we are heartbroken when news breaks that Aidan O’Connell is inactive.

But, I mean, how bad could it really be?

As it turns out, worse than we could have imagined. Jakobi Meyers ended up with a fine stat line for boxscore watchers (10.9 PPR points), but this offense didn’t target a receiver in the first half.

You read that right. It doesn’t show a Meyers target or a receiver catch — no player designated as a “WR” on this roster was even looked at for the first 30 minutes.

There are a few of these situations where a bad offense is in a good spot (NYG at ATL, CLE at CIN, etc), and I’m generally betting against bad offenses with my season on the line. Maybe it’s fair, maybe it’s not, but in the middle of the season, I’m more likely to roll the dice on a profile like this than in December with my fate on the line.

Jalen Coker, WR | CAR (vs. ARI)

Jalen Coker returned from a quad injury last week and took a pass 83 yards to the house to celebrate, fueling his second top-20 performance of his rookie season.

That play, naturally, was as much the result of mass confusion in Dallas’ secondary as anything, so I’d caution against reading too much into anything. It was Coker and Adam Thielen in two-receiver sets with Xavier Legette getting banged up, and that puts two similar skill sets in position to cannibalize one another.

With Bryce Young offering spotty QB play, I’d prefer to have the slot role locked up if I were going to venture into the Panthers’ waters. Both Coker and Thielen have shown the ability to win at that spot on the field, but last week, it was the veteran occupying that spot (71.4% of snaps) over the rookie (46.5%).

I remain interested in this team — I’ll save my exposure for next season.

Jalen McMillan, WR | TB (at DAL)

I don’t want to say that the current Bucs are functioning at Week 1-2 Saints or peak Jameis Winston Cleveland levels, but we aren’t far, and Tampa Bay’s two primary receivers are dominating.

Since Mike Evans’ return from the hamstring injury, 63 receivers have seen at least 15 targets. Here are the leaders in PPR production over expectation over that stretch:

1. Terry McLaurin: +73.7%
2. Jalen McMillan: +60.5%
3. Jerry Jeudy: +50.8%
4. Mike Evans: +50.5%

I’m not comfortable in labeling the rookie as a must-start with your season on the line, but this is awfully good form and an awfully good matchup (Dallas has the worst red-zone defense in the NFL).

McMillan’s aDOT is down 26.2% over the past three weeks from his rate prior, and I think that actually adds to his appeal at this point — the deep role is Evans’, and that’s not going to change.

I’ve got Tampa Bay’s WR2 ranked as a low-end WR3 in this spot, putting McMillan on the Flex radar in deeper formats.

Jalen Tolbert, WR | DAL (vs. TB)

Jalen Tolbert got on the board last week in Carolina, and that means you saw him while watching “NFL RedZone.” If you saw that one play, that means that you saw about as much of Tolbert as anyone watching a traditional feed.

For the first time this season, Tolbert was not on the field for the majority of Dallas’ offensive snaps and, for the sixth straight game, he failed to reach nine expected PPR points. I made the case to chase the WR2 for the Cowboys earlier this season as I was comfortable in counting out Brandin Cooks and wanted exposure to a Dak Prescott offense.

Cooper Rush isn’t Dak Prescott.

Dallas has been putting up some points in plus matchups of late, but the Bucs are allowing just 15 points per game during their four-game win streak; that level of production puts any secondary piece next to CeeDee Lamb in a near-impossible spot.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR | CIN (vs. CLE)

Ja’Marr Chase is chasing the receiving triple crown and, with three weeks remaining, already has an elite stat line under his belt (102-1,413-15).

The only interesting note I can provide here that you’re not already aware of is this simple fact: the last time Chase was held out of the end zone was against the Raiders in a double-digit win — he went for a casual 11-264-3 stat line the next week.

I’m just sharing facts.

It’s also fun to note that the Browns have the highest opponent average depth of throw this season, half a yard ahead of the field. If there was ever a tandem to challenge them downfield …

Jameson Williams, WR | DET (at CHI)

Jameson Williams was able to score in the shootout against the Bills last week, but three catches for 37 yards isn’t exactly encouraging. The recent involvement spike (20% on-field target share or better in five straight games before last week) was why we were Flexing Williams last week; while he ultimately got there, his 8.5% rate felt more like the rookie version of him than the flourishing option we had become accustomed to.

Don’t sweat it.

In this space last week, I highlighted Buffalo’s perimeter defense as one that could give Williams issues. I don’t say that to pseudo-victory lap, I say it to provide context for the underwhelming Week 15 profile, even if the fantasy point total was just fine.

No such worries present themselves in the Windy City this week against a Bears defense that allows the fifth-most yards per pass thrown outside of the numbers (BUF: fourth fewest). I found it interesting that Detroit used Williams in a unique way, by his standards, during the first meeting with Chicago (6.6 aDOT), something that showcases their confidence in his versatility.

This burner has been in the WR25-35 range in three of his past four games, and that is exactly where I have him ranked this weekend, understanding that we have to assume some risk with this offense taking its talents outdoors.

Jauan Jennings, WR| SF (at MIA)

I preached patience and process with Isaac Guerendo earlier and I’m going to go ahead and double down with his teammate in Jauan Jennings.

The two-catch, 31-yard performance was nightmare fuel for Jennings’ managers who had gotten 17.4 PPR points per game for the month prior, but these things happen from time to time. He saw nine targets in a plus-matchup as the featured member of a traditionally efficient offense – you take that profile to the bank most weeks.

Just because the dots didn’t connect on Thursday night doesn’t mean much to me given that the role proved stable. Of course, it means plenty if it knocked you out of your league’ playoffs, but you’re reading this piece because you still have something left to play for. In those spots, I don’t have any reservations about going back to Jennings.

Since Week 6, San Francisco’s WR1 is averaging one target every 3.5 routes run, a number that far exceeds what Brandon Aiyuk posted during his breakout 2023 season (4.2). The valuable looks are being earned at a strong level as well (16.1% of Jennings’ targets have come in the red zone and 10.3% in the end zone), giving me confidence that last week was a blip and not the start of a stock crash at the worst possible time.

You wouldn’t (I hope) refuse to show up for your wedding because your spouse left the toilet seat up or refused to take out the garbage the night before your big day, would you? That’s where I am with Jennings – I can overlook the transgression that was Week 15 in the hopes of a beautiful relationship moving forward.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | SEA (vs. MIN)

It’s official. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has arrived.

You might assume that it is because he is WR4 on a per-game basis since Week 9 (21.4 PPG, ranking ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua over that stretch). You might assume that it is because he has a touchdown or 10 catches in four of his past five games.

I’m not saying those reasons are wrong, they just aren’t right.

As you might assume, we watch a lot of sports in the Soppe household. To call my wife a passive observer would very much be underselling the word “passive,” but whatever, she’s there for a lot of it.

She can now properly pronounce Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

That’s a surefire sign of stardom. This happened years ago with Giannis Antetokounmpo and she’s gotten there with Shohei Ohtani. And now, Smith-Njigba.

During that Week 9-15 window mentioned above, JSN has an on-field target share that is 5.7 percentage points greater than that of DK Metcalf and a red-zone target rate that is nearly triple of Seattle’s former WR1.

Yea, I did it. I went there. This is the Smith-Njigba show, and I don’t see that changing against a defense that is going to force Geno Smith to make decisions in a hurry.

Jayden Reed, WR | GB (vs. NO)

I can’t decide what I think of Jayden Reed, and I think it’s because the Packers can’t decide what they think of him.

He thrived in his first two games with Jordan Love this season and then teased us with a WR17 finish in Week 9 after a lull in usage. The man has just one top-30 finish since. It’s been a bumpy ride to say the least, but was last week the start of something?

Reed had three rush attempts in the one-sided win over the Seahawks (one more than he had in his previous five games combined) and caught 83.3% of his targets in that game (two games prior: 42.9%). After toying around with some exotic looks, Green Bay seems to be leaning into Reed as a gadget, get-in-space type. While I think he has the potential to be more than that, seeing them commit to something (anything!) would be glorious for his fantasy value.

Against Seattle, his six targets totalled two air yards. That may be a little extreme, but we saw him post-air-yard totals north of 75 yards earlier this year, making the conservative approach from Sunday night noteworthy.

Such a role, most assume, comes with a narrowing of outcomes — the targets are more efficient but, in large, less explosive situations. In most scenarios, I think that’s right, but against the third-worst defense in terms of YAC per reception allowed, I’d argue that supplementing a traditional running game with shuttle targets like this might actually be Reed’s cleanest path to a ceiling performance.

I rank for mean outcomes, so I’m not overweighting that upside case, but I do think there’s a logical argument for him to come through in a surprisingly big way. Reed, for me, is essentially Jaylen Waddle, but with a running game that subtracts from his target upside more than an alpha WR. Both Reed and Waddle are floating around WR30 in my current Week 16 rankings.

Jaylen Waddle, WR | MIA (vs. SF)

Following a Week 15 loss in which Jaylen Waddle (knee) missed the second half, Mike McDaniel said his WR2 avoided disaster and is to be considered day-to-day.

That’s the good news, but Waddle always seems to be one misstep from his afternoon ending early. That has to be considered by fantasy managers. For the season, his target rate (both overall and inside of the red zone) are pacing for a career low. That puts a lot of pressure on the few opportunities he does get, and that’s a problem against the defense that allows the fourth-fewest yards per completion.

I find it unlikely that you advanced this far in your fantasy league by counting on Waddle in a significant way, but if that’s the case, this is a home game and that, traditionally, means you at least have a path to getting a positive return on your investment. Since the start of last season, Waddle has cleared 13 PPR points in a game nine times and eight of them have come in front of the Dolphins’ faithful fans.

He’s not a top-30 play for me and ranks alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. when it comes to talented receivers that I’m more comfortable benching than starting in my fantasy playoffs.

Jerry Jeudy, WR | CLE (at CIN)

Jerry Jeudy has cleared 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, riding the Jameis Winston momentum to seven straight games with either 70 yards or a touchdown.

I like how that sounds and the fruit that it has given us recently, but reporting out of Cleveland has Dorian Thompson-Robinson taking over this offense. That introduces similar weekly risk without the benefit of the high-end ceiling.

DTR only has 146 NFL passes on his résumé, but a 6.0 career aDOT is downright problematic for a player like Jeudy that can win down the field. This change under center shook up my expectations for this passing game. I had Jeudy as the clear-cut top option with David Njoku (if active) a clear No. 2 and Elijah Moore a distant third.

Now, Njoku is a unique case because of the position he plays, and while I still prefer Jeudy to Moore, he’s no longer to be looked at as a lineup lock.

If you’re starting any Brown this week, it’s a play against the fourth-worst points-per-drive defense more than anything, and that’s a reasonable angle to take.

Jordan Addison, WR | MIN (at SEA)

Jordan Addison is going to be the poster child for players like Rome Odunze and Xavier Worthy this offseason — rookie receivers who put good film out there before coming into their own during Year 2.

Here is the entire list of receivers with more than 40 targets since Week 11:

• Puka Nacua: 52 targets (130 routes)
• Jakobi Meyers: 51 (218)
• Ja’Marr Chase: 51 (180)
• Jerry Jeudy: 50 (213)
• CeeDee Lamb: 50 (174)
• Keenan Allen: 49 (201)
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 49 (203)
• DJ Moore: 46 (207)
• Malik Nabers: 46 (168)
• Tyreek Hill: 44 (194)
• Jordan Addison: 44 (169)
• Brian Thomas Jr.: 43 (150)
• Davante Adams: 42 (150)
• Justin Jefferson: 42 (187)

I’m not suggesting that we have a WR committee in Minnesota or anything like that, but the ability to earn targets at effectively a St. Brown rate over an extended period of time while Jefferson is healthy is downright impressive.

It should be noted that Addison’s aDOT over that stretch trails only Jeudy of the names on that list. On the whole, I’d read that as a positive, as the ability to earn targets with that level of consistency downfield is even more difficult to do. However, the Seahawks focus on taking away those shot plays.

Through 15 weeks, Seattle owns the second-lowest opponent aDOT, which is why I have a little hesitation about locking in Addison ahead of a Ladd McConkey type with a safer floor.

The second-year star still ranks as a top-25 receiver for me and can be started in most spots. I just wanted to provide a little bit of context, as it is very possible that you have Addison rostered alongside a trio of stars.

Josh Downs, WR | IND (vs. TEN)

Josh Downs used the Week 14 bye to heal up his shoulder (DNP in Week 13) and walked right into his standard role by playing 76.4% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps with a 72.7% slot rate.

Downs can be as healthy as he wants to be, and for my money, he’s the best receiver in this offense. But it doesn’t matter if the quarterback can’t throw a stone into the ocean.

Let’s play a game. There are eight receivers this season with at least 50 targets who were drafted inside of the top 75 at the position this summer and have spent over 60% of their time in the slot. Below are their catch rates:

• Player A: 80.7%
• Player B: 80.6%
• Player C: 75.4%
• Player D: 75.3%
• Player E: 74.6%
• Player F: 71.6%
• Player G: 67%
• Player H: 65.1%

Have your guesses?

I’ll buy you a little scroll time. These slot targets are supposed to be the easy-button options, the layup targets, the ones the defense is more willing to give up than the deep ball over the top.

Downs was able to parlay this role into a 7-66-1 stat line on a 25% target share in the first meeting with the Titans, numbers that came from Joe Flacco.

That’s not the world we are currently living in.

How many did you get right?

• Player A: Khalil Shakir
• Player B: Chris Godwin
• Player C: Jayden Reed
• Player D: DeMario Douglas
• Player E: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Player F: Ladd McConkey
• Player G: Cooper Kupp
• Player H: Josh Downs

The point is that you can be as big a Downs fan as you want to be and still not feel great about Flexing him this week with your season on the line. I have him ranked in the same tier as the struggling Deebo Samuel Sr. and Tank Dell.

Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC (vs. DEN)

Joshua Palmer has seen more than five targets twice this season, and both came when the Chargers were forced to structure their offensive game plan around facing an elite QB on the other side. No disrespect to Bo Nix, but I don’t think Jim Harbaugh is losing sleep this week when it comes to trying to keep up the way he must have with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

Over his last four games that didn’t have a multi-time MVP QB on the other side, Palmer has earned just 10 targets on 99 routes. That’s just not going to cut it. Not in a tough matchup in a game I expect to be a slog.

There will be interesting conversations this summer when it comes to the field-stretching role in LA’s offense next to Ladd McConkey. But in terms of Week 15, the rookie is the only Chargers skill player I have interest in.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR | KC (vs. HOU)

JuJu Smith-Schuster has been hovering in the 50-57% snap share rate for a month now, and although he got into the end zone last week, this is lining up for a player who will be more impactful as Kansas City tries to navigate a third straight postseason than anything of use to us.

Since returning from injury, Smith-Schuster’s 109 routes have yielded just nine targets and 62 yards. My lack of interest in his profile has nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes’ injury — this isn’t a player you need to roster in any format.

Justin Jefferson, WR | MIN (at SEA)

For the second time this season, Justin Jefferson has caught at least seven passes in three straight games. We’d also be looking at consecutive multi-TD games if he didn’t put a 30-yard touchdown on the ground last week.

There’s a lot of talk these days as to who the best receiver is in the NFL. Jefferson seemed to have that title coming into the year, but the narrative has shifted, with some favoring Ja’Marr Chase.

I don’t have a strong take in either direction, but I will say that you need to dig deeper than raw box-score numbers. Comparing Chase’s fourth season with a QB with whom he shared a college locker room with to Jefferson’s first in an offense led by a quarterback that the NFL was close to giving up on just isn’t an apples-to-apples situation.

Keenan Allen, WR | CHI (vs. DET)

Without four scores in four games, Keenan Allen is reminding us to not only bet on rookie development with time, but the pieces they touch. Caleb Williams obviously hasn’t had a banner year, but there are some signs weekly that he has potential, and recently, it’s benefited Allen.

Of course, that coin has two sides. Allen posted a season-high 155 air yards on Monday, his sixth triple-digit air-yard performance this season. He also has four sub-50 air-yard showings. The 22.2% target share that he earned in the Week 13 loss to the Lions wasn’t overwhelming, but the 5-73-2 stat line certainly was useful.

Much of that production came with Chicago in panic/chase mode, and we should see plenty of that again on Sunday.

If we’re being honest, I don’t have a ton of confidence in any Bears receiver. However, I would consider all of them if I had them on a semifinal team in a similar vein as the Colts’ receivers who also lack consistent play under center.

Kendrick Bourne, WR | NE (at BUF)

Kendrick Bourne has caught every pass thrown his way in three of his past four games. The small sample size of his 2024 season with Drake Maye is encouraging, but it’s not nearly enough to put him on fantasy radars.

I’m not betting on the Patriots’ offense if I can avoid it, but if I am going that avenue, it’s going to be in the middle of the field where the Bills funnel opposing pass games. Maybe Bourne will play a part in Maye’s long-term development, but we don’t need to worry about that right now.

Keon Coleman, WR | BUF (vs. NE)

After four straight DNPs due to a wrist injury, Keon Coleman returned to action on Sunday and assumed a reasonable role (63.2% snap share, down a touch from his 69.3% pre-injury). He only earned two targets on those 20 routes, but in an offense like Buffalo’s, quality of looks can help offset a lack of quantity.

• 51 air yards
• 64 yards gained

One catch, and he finishes the week with more points than Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Rome Odunze, and DK Metcalf. That, of course, is not always going to be the case, but the quality of QB makes a huge difference this time of year as I piece together my Flex rankings.

Would I rather play Coleman with Josh Allen in a desperate situation or hope that we land on a seemingly random Nick Westbrook-Ikhine week in Tennessee or Alec Pierce in a similar role with the Colts?

I’m not looking to play Coleman until next season, but you could do worse if the QB injuries have forced you into uncomfortable spots (starting Coleman over Xavier Worthy is on the table should Patrick Mahomes be officially ruled out). The matchup isn’t prohibitive as the Patriots own the seventh-highest opponent aDOT this season.

Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF (vs. NE)

I’ve now written this article for 34 consecutive regular-season weeks here at PFN, and I imagine that I’ve used an assortment of like five clichés to refer to Khalil Shakir’s fantasy outlook in each one of those pieces.

“Slot machine”
“Easy button”
“Layup targets”

You get the idea. Clichés can be corny, but that doesn’t mean they are inaccurate. I stand by all of it and will likely recycle those terms next week, during the playoffs, and in Week 6 of next season.

With four top-25 finishes over his past five games, Shakir is as solid as it gets. We saw the long touchdown in Week 14 (51 yards), and he followed it up with a six-catch game where not a single one of his receptions gained more than 10 yards. In theory, that sounds like a weakness, but when a game like that pops up, he catches north of 80% of his targets and still carries scoring equity because this Buffalo offense lives near the goal line.

I truly think that a fantasy team with three Shakir types (Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers, Jayden Reed, etc.) would win at a very high rate if surrounded with even ordinary talent.

Put a pin in that idea for now, I’ll prove it this offseason.

Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC (vs. DEN)

Ladd McConkey is pacing for 1,074 receiving yards. He looks likely to become the third Charger with 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie and has every chance to top Keenan Allen’s franchise rookie record (1,046).

More important than the counting numbers is the confidence we see from his teammates on a weekly basis. Last week was the latest example as he finished the first drive with three targets, 27 yards, and a touchdown.

Pat Surtain II sprained his ankle last week, and while I’m not sure that’d he would be attached to McConkey’s hip anyway, the Defensive Player of the Year candidate being at less than full strength certainly can’t hurt Los Angeles’ WR1’s outlook.

McConkey is a good bet to make it five straight top-25 finishes at the position. If he can build upon the 25.8% target share he posted in the Week 6 meeting, a low-end WR1 week could be in store, even in a difficult spot.

He’s that impressive.

Malik Nabers, WR | NYG (at ATL)

Science has their nature/nurture debates. We, as fantasy managers who deal with similarly important arguments, have fought with the talent/situation thing for years now. I don’t think we have any more clarity today than we did at the beginning of the season.

I was firmly in the “I’ll be a year late on Malik Nabers instead of investing at the peak levels of excitement” camp. Have I been right? Wrong? Neither?

Despite being targeted 10+ times in six of his past seven games, Malik Nabers doesn’t have a 100-yard game since September. Over that stretch, on a per-game basis, he ranks no worse than seventh in routes, targets, and catches. Yet, he has only a single weekly finish better than WR24 during that run.

All of that work and Devaughn Vele has more finishes inside the top 24 producers at the position. All due respect to the Vele family, but come on.

Nabers’ production with Daniel Jones, 2024:

• 1.5 fantasy points per target
• 2.2 yards per route
• 10.5 aDOT
• 33% on-field target share

Nabers’ production without Daniel Jones in Week 15:

• 1.3 fantasy points per target
• 1.8 yards per route
• 8.8 aDOT
• 29.1% on-field target share

As a collective, the Giants are averaging 5.7 yards per pass this season. That puts them on track to post the fourth-worst rate over the past decade. I see no reason to think it improves in a meaningful way over the final few weeks.

In the rare instances that New York threatens, Nabers gets the dangerous looks. He checks literally every box you could ask and it really hasn’t mattered. I could tell you that the Falcons are a bottom-two defense in sack rate, pass touchdown percentage, and completion rate, but why would I trust this Giants offense to pay off this good spot?

You’re going to start him and bet on his talent, something I understand. I have Nabers ranked as a low-end WR2, understanding that he isn’t the only strong receiver with QB issues (Jerry Jeudy and Brian Thomas feel a similar pain).

But I ask you — was my preseason take on Nabers right?

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR | ARI (at CAR)

Marvin Harrison Jr. has 28 catches for 349 yards and three touchdowns in quarters 2-4 this season. If you extend those 42 quarters for a full season — 46 catches for 565 yards and five touchdowns. That’s essentially the stat line Chris Godwin posted in seven games before his season ended (50-576-5).

How crazy is that?

This summer, we assumed that this would be a marriage between quantity of targets, quality of opportunity, and elite pedigree. Heck, through September we believed that to be the case, but it hasn’t come close to panning out.

Harrison has one game this season with more than five receptions and is not one of the 186 players (entering Week 16) with a catch gaining more than 25 yards since Week 3.

• Josh Whyle
• Simi Fehoko
• Miles Sanders

Those are just some of the names on that list. Obviously, nothing about this matchup should scare you (CAR: highest TD pass rate allowed), but everything about how Arizona is using its supposed generational talent should.

I have Harrison sitting as nothing more than an ordinary WR3, preferring Jakobi Meyers (vs. JAX) to him.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR | IND (vs. TEN)

Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy profile has changed this season in a major way. He has sacrificed target share (on-field rate is down from 27.5% last season to 22.8% this year) for an increase in depth (8.1 up to 11.1). It hasn’t worked — he’s turned 27 deep targets into just 28.3 PPR points.

In theory, any Anthony Richardson-led offense comes with a wide range of outcomes. Some are positive, but without a single top-15 performance this season, is the risk worth it?

I approach any Richardson game with the hope for a high possession count, understanding that there will be wasted drives, and it’s hard to feel good about that count this week against the second-slowest-moving offense in the NFL.

Pittman was a lock starter for most when we opened the season, but now, he’s not even a top-40 guy.

Michael Wilson, WR | ARI (at CAR)

I hate to admit it because I still think there is a fantasy asset in this profile, but based on usage, there’s no real reason to go to Michael Wilson this week, even if you like seeing the “at CAR” label in your Flex spot.

We don’t have concrete proof that Wilson is a target elevator, which mean he needs volume – and that’s not happening.

Wilson has cleared 6.5 expected PPR points in just one of his past six games, a low bar to struggle to reach. There is spike-play upside in his skill set, but Arizona’s offense as a whole has struggled to give us consistent production, and it’s buried their young receiver.

Since Week 3, the Cardinals are 3-0 against the AFC East (29.7 points per game) and 3-6 against the rest of the NFL (17.3). That’s not a predictive stat by any means, but it’s one that helps me communicate my lack of trust in this offensive environment as a whole, so I’m dropping it here.

And to answer your next question — yes, I’ll probably talk myself back into Wilson this summer.

Mike Evans, WR | TB (at DAL)

Mike Evans absorbed 42.3% of the targets last week and now needs 83.7 receiving yards per game to close the season to again get to 1,000. The narrative of him chasing that number is fun to track, but that’s secondary right now with the Bucs unbeaten since their Week 11 bye.

Evans has cleared a 28% on-field target share in four of his past five games, a level of involvement that ranks among the very best in the sport. With Baker Mayfield playing as well as he ever has, you should be loving the ability to walk into your Week 16 matchup with Evans facing a defense that allows a touchdown on 26.7% of drives (fourth-highest).

Mike Williams, WR | PIT (at BAL)

I can’t imagine a better run out for Mike Williams in Pittsburgh. He made a big play in his debut with the team to showcase his raw ability and then had some time to acclimate before George Pickens went down with an injury.

With a month to get used to the system, Williams would surely smash with his ideal role opening up in an offense that features deep balls just often enough to keep defenses honest.

Right? Wrong.

Williams’ weekly snap shares with Pittsburgh:

• Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
• Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
• Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals: 24.2%
• Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns: 27.4%
• Week 15 at Philadelphia Eagles: 36.6%

In Pickens’ absence, Williams has managed to turn six targets into just 51 scoreless yards. Even without their alpha receiver and a passing script, Williams finished Week 15 with a sub-10% target share.

Pittsburgh’s offense simply isn’t built for Williams, and that’s become obvious. Pickens will absorb all of the deep looks when active, and when he’s not, the Steelers’ offense goes into a shell (I’m going to keep betting unders on Russell Wilson’s longest completion until we get a fully healthy Pickens). They had a 31-yard pass play last week, but it required a flea-flicker that was lucky to be caught.

Maybe Williams makes a play during a tight postseason game. Nothing would surprise me with Mike Tomlin, but holding onto Williams at this point in the fantasy season is asking for too much.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR | TEN (at IND)

Don’t you love it when regression works the way it’s supposed to?

No? Just me?

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was scoring once every 4.8 targets for over two months, and I don’t think I ranked him as a top-40 option once.

No…I know I didn’t. And I was wrong plenty. I went the other way in just about every question that came in on Twitter, and I’m sure I cost some people some matchups.

But water has finally begun to find its level.

There have been a few misses, I’ll give you that. Westbrook-Ikhine’s role near the goal line is certainly noteworthy, but nothing in this profile outside of a crazy scoring spurt requires our attention — and that includes the offensive environment as a whole.

Westbrook-Ikhine has not been a top-60 receiver in consecutive games and safely, again, ranks well outside of my Flex tier this week. He earned just two targets in the first meeting with the Colts (Week 6), one of which, of course, was a score. If you want to chase that, go ahead. It’s not for me and never will be.

Nico Collins, WR | HOU (at KC)

It’s awfully hard to provide viable fantasy numbers in a game where your offense fails to reach 200 total yards, holds the ball for under 27 minutes, and averaged 5.0 yards per pass.

It’s also awfully hard to find many receivers as talented as Nico Collins.

Last week was a mess against the Dolphins, and yet, Collins found paydirt twice, allowing him to post WR2 (or better) numbers for the seventh time in nine games.

It’s fine to fear the Chiefs’ defense. They’re about as good as it gets, but not to the point where you’re considering doing something crazy.

Even in the midst of a great season, Kansas City’s defense has allowed 17+ PPR points to an opposing WR1 five times this season (Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey, and Jakobi Meyers).

Say what you will about C.J. Stroud and his production this season — he’s better than the majority of quarterbacks who fueled the production of those WR1s in this same matchup.

Noah Brown, WR | WAS (vs. PHI)

We knew that there was a rib injury to track with Noah Brown, but news emerged late last week that this situation turned into a lacerated kidney, a development that landed him on injured reserve.

Our search for a WR2 next to Terry McLaurin forges on – Brown is done for the regular season and that means he can safely be dropped in all redraft formats for any warm body.

Parker Washington, WR | JAX (at LV)

Parker Washington lit up the Texans in Week 13 to the tune of 103 yards and a score on 12 targets, but he’s been an afterthought since. Despite playing plenty (77 routes), he’s hauled in just five passes for 69 yards over the past two weeks.

I’m not comfortable in assuming quality from this Jaguars passing game, and while Washington has shown capable of making plays on occasion, a 12.9% career on-field target share isn’t nearly enough to overcome Mac Jones’ struggles.

It’s Brian Thomas Jr. and (if you’re desperate) Brenton Strange in Jacksonville. That’s it, even in this advantageous matchup against a Raiders team that played on Monday night.

Puka Nacua, WR | LAR (at NYJ)

Nacua Matata, it means no worries. Puka Nacua entered this season with high expectations after a historic rookie season, and I’ll admit it, I was one of the skeptics. Not that he wasn’t talented, but that he’d have trouble establishing himself as an elite asset alongside of a healthy Cooper Kupp, something that wasn’t the case when he debuted a season ago.

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

As an encore to his massive rookie season, Nacua is averaging 6.1% more PPR points per target this season and has thrown his name in the ring for 1.01 consideration this summer.

Sheesh!

Try this on for size. Over his last five games, Nacua has earned 52 targets on 130 routes. In 2023, he ran 571 routes – if you transposed his recent target per route number over that full season total, we’d be looking at 228.4 targets; if you assign his career catch rate to that figure, a record-breaking 156 receptions.

That’s just a creative way to get to the point you’re already well aware of – this dude is a difference-maker of the highest order. The dead Jets gave up over 20 PPR points to both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the last time they faced a reliable pocket passer.

To say they don’t have an answer for Nacua would be an understatement. Look for your WR1 to clear 95 receiving yards or score for a seventh straight game and give you every chance imaginable to advance in your playoff bracket.

Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC (vs. DEN)

Quentin Johnston has scored in consecutive games and in five of his past seven. The touchdown luck has been in his favor, but how about a 37% on-field target share against the Bucs last weekend (a third straight week of improvement)?

Last week’s score was a nice catch-and-turn play, though you could argue that the three missed tackles were more damning of Tampa Bay’s secondary than anything positive on Johnston’s side of things.

Ladd McConkey has established himself as the clear WR1 in LA’s low-octane offense, a development that allows us only to have so much confidence in Johnston or any other secondary piece. Having said that, Justin Herbert’s average depth of throw is up 25% over the past five weeks from the first 10, which adds upside to the role that Johnston fills.

Personally, I’d rather play the deep threats in the NFC North (Romeo Doubs, Rome Odunze, or Jameson Williams) this week if given the choice of them to Johnston. This profile in this matchup is too thin for me to trust in most situations, but if you’re a significant underdog and can swallow some risk, Johnston’s scoring binge has allowed him to return top 35 value in five of his past seven games.

Rashod Bateman, WR | BAL (vs. PIT)

I don’t think I need to sell or persuade you on Rashod Bateman; you know exactly what you’re signing up for. For his career, Bateman’s average TD reception length is 30.5 yards, and if you’re considering him, you’re very much relying on that double-digit point play.

Bateman has scored seven times this season, but six have come against awfully vulnerable defenses (Giants, Bengals, Buccaneers, and Cowboys). You can isolate the 40-yard score against the Chargers if you want and use that as ammo for Flexing him in a tough spot, but let’s not lose track of the fact that he had one catch for three yards in that game outside of the broken coverage.

Is that level of downside something you’re willing to take on?

Rome Odunze, WR | CHI (vs. DET)

Much like fellow rookie Xavier Worthy, it’s easy to like the direction the stock of Rome Odunze is heading. The target and expected point numbers are trending up, putting him in position to be a big hit next season.

Could that “big hit” happen this week? I’m not betting on it, but I’m not ruling it out. Odunze was able to uncover in the end zone last week, and if Caleb Williams doesn’t air mail the 12-yard pass, maybe there’s more momentum behind the rookie for this week.

It should be noted that Odunze was shut down in the Thanksgiving game against Detroit. He caught just two passes and averaged a mere 0.75 PPR points per target while Chicago’s two receivers next to him combined to score 2.0 PPR points per look that week.

But if we are evaluating boom/bust options, why not? Detroit has the second-highest opponent aDOT this season, in large part to game scripts, something that I expect to be at play in this spot as the Lions look to rebound from the Week 15 loss to the Bills.

When looking at the Bears’ receiver trio, here’s the breakdown in terms of target and air-yard share:

• Rome Odunze: 29.6% of targets, 40.5% of air yards
• Keenan Allen: 32.7% of targets, 32.2% of air yards
• DJ Moore: 37.7% of targets, 27.3% of air yards

Odunze is sitting around WR40 for me this week, ranking ahead of the hot Keenan Allen and ahead of other deep options like Quentin Johnston and Christian Watson.

Romeo Doubs, WR | GB (vs. NO)

Romeo Doubs missed a pair of games while in concussion protocol, but cleared all needed hurdles ahead of last week and showed out once he was let back on the field.

The Packers showed no hesitation in rolling him out there as usual (Week 15: 75.4% snap share, 2024: 77.2%) and were rewarded in a big way. Doubs earned five targets on his 25 routes, producing 19 PPR fantasy points and a game-sealing score in the process.

We now have a sample size north of 800 routes from Doubs, and he’s sitting at a production rate of +7.7%. I’m not suggesting that he’s a bonafide star, but it’s clear that Doubs has Jordan Love’s trust in scoring situations. Given the strong expectations for the Packers on Monday night, he’s a fine Flex option for managers in search of upside.

Things are pretty cut and dry these days in Green Bay’s passing game. That, of course, doesn’t mean the production is easy to forecast, but we at least know who is responsible for what.

Packers’ Week 15 participation rates, 2024:

• Tucker Kraft: 88.5% snaps, two targets, 25 air yards
• Christian Watson: 77% snaps, six targets, 95 air yards
• Romeo Doubs: 75.4% snaps, five targets, 88 air yards
• Jayden Reed: 60.7% snaps, six targets, two air yards
• Dontayvion Wicks: 45.9% snaps, two targets, three air yards

I don’t love this matchup for the deep threats (New Orleans ranks top five against long passes in passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per attempt), but this offense as a whole carries scoring equity this week.

That makes a player like Doubs at least worth considering for your lineup and, at the very least, worthy of rostering so that your opponent doesn’t get cheap access to an offense that could put 30 points on the board again.

Tank Dell, WR | HOU (at KC)

Tank Dell was remarkable as a rookie, but he’s underwhelmed as a second-year player.

After posting production that was 22% over PPR expectations, Dell sits at 10.6% below what we’d pencil in given his specific usage. Such a dip in quality of target can be overcome by sheer quantity, but that’s not the situation we find ourselves in with this undersized asset (17.5% on-field target share this year after delivering a 23.4% rate in 2023).

Dell has one top-30 finish on his 2024 résumé, and now, with your season on the line, you’d be betting on him to double that total against a defense that ranks second in yards allowed per receiver target.

Dell is an explosive player who is capable of making a play against anyone. Yet, you’re reading this article with the intent to be informed as to which way the numbers are trending and projecting. In that regard, it would be close to irresponsible to play Dell at Arrowhead.

Tee Higgins, WR | CIN (vs. CLE)

Tee Higgins has nine touchdown catches in his past 12 regular-season games (6+ in four of his five NFL seasons). My guess is that may come as a bit of a surprise because it’s been a bumpy ride with a no-show in Week 14 on prime time, five DNPs this season, and Ja’Marr Chase’s excellence.

For the most part, when Higgins has been on the field for his career, he’s been excellent. I don’t expect that to change this weekend against a Cleveland team that he earned one-third of the targets against (4-82-1 stat line) back in Week 7.

I have Higgins as a lineup lock without any thought, given how well Burrow is playing. He stands to move inside of my top 15 should the Browns name Jameis Winston as their starter this week.

Yep, the rare “WR whose fantasy stock is impacted by the opposing QB” situation based on projected game environment.

Terry McLaurin, WR | WAS (vs. PHI)

Last week, Terry McLaurin became the first Washington receiver with a double-digit touchdown season since Gary Clark (1991), and he added a second score for good measure. That gives McLaurin three multi-score efforts this season — the first three such games by a Commanders receiver this millennium.

McLaurin has been even better than you want to give him credit for. I understand if looking at his career stats send regression chills down your spine, but I’d encourage you to fight that reflex. Sure, he has two more touchdown catches this season on 92 targets than he had on 252 over the two seasons prior, but all the math changed with a new coaching staff and rookie QB.

When the facts change, we change. That should be a life lesson, but, at the very least, something that you follow for fantasy.

Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams, Mike Evans, and Stefon Diggs. Those were the only players to join McLaurin on the list of players with 1,000 receiving yards in every season from 2020-23. Without any context, that’s an impressive list, but when you consider Washington’s team passing ranks over that stretch, McLaurin’s production feels like a minor miracle.

• 26th in touchdown rate
• 28th in yards per attempt
• 28th in passer rating
• 29th in yards per completion

You’re playing McLaurin this week. He’s earned the “matchup proof” tag at this point (miss me with the “he only earned two targets on 29 routes in the first meeting” narrative). Enjoy the ride now — McLaurin will be considerably more expensive this August than last.

Tim Patrick, WR | DET (at CHI)

We got the early season J.K. Dobbins run, and this Tim Patrick string of production might well be the receiver equivalent when it comes to an injury-prone player finally shining.

How can you not root for Patrick?

He’s been a top-40 fantasy option in three of his past four games. While that may seem like a low bar to clear, this is the time of year where you’re willing to take some creative chances.

His superman dive into the end zone after uncovering during a Jared Goff scramble last week was impressive. Not that I’m banking on broken plays to be all that common in this timing-based offense, but the non-verbal communication was good to see, especially when you factor in the potential impact of the David Montgomery injury.

Through 15 weeks, the Lions rank ninth in rush rate over expectation, a rate that might be even higher if not for a few very lopsided games where it was borderline impossible to rush at a level over expectation. The Bears have their issues, but they are the third-best red-zone defense in the NFL. If Detroit can’t pound the ball with success when they inevitably get inside the 20, could Patrick punch in a score for a third straight week?

I wouldn’t get over your skis here, but he’s at least worth rostering at this point while you wait for final injury reports. I like this spot for him more than a low-upside receiver like Wan’Dale Robinson or highly variant options like Xavier Worthy or Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.

Tyler Lockett, WR | SEA (vs. MIN)

The Seahawks often play in the late window, and that opens me up to seeing a higher percentage of their offensive snaps than an East Coast team that routinely plays in that crowded first wave of games.

I watch games with an advanced database in front of me, one that deprioritizes standard stats in favor of more detailed metrics. I love it, but as a result, I can lose track of the counting numbers in-game. It feels like, more weeks than not, Tyler Lockett will make an impactful play that grades out well and it sticks out in my mind. I think he’s still a reasonable piece to have on an NFL offense. But the target-earning abilities are all but gone, and we are in the business of chasing volume.

Lockett doesn’t have a five-target game on his résumé since mid-October, and Week 9 was his last top-65 PPR finish. He might make a play or two this weekend against an aggressive Vikings defense that is likely to put him in single coverage, but you’re asking for far too much if you’re considering him as a worthwhile Flex option.

This is a DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba-led passing attack that doesn’t have the desire to get a third party involved consistently.

Tyreek Hill, WR | MIA (vs. SF)

All the vibes in Miami were good entering last week and then — nothing. Tyreek Hill was held without a catch in the first half of the loss to the Texans and posted his ninth finish this season outside of the 30 most valuable PPR receivers.

It obviously has been a far-from-ideal season situationally and burning an age-30 season is a problem. This offseason, we will be forced to determine if there was physical decline in Hill’s game, something that will be challenging given the limitations of this offense and an injury that has lingered.

That’s a problem for another day. When it comes to this week, however, I think your opinion of Hill hinges on how you think this game plays out. The Dolphins are home favorites and that’s never a bad place to start.

If you’re on board with them winning this game, your confidence should elevate him a good amount. This season, Hill’s aDOT is 16.1% lower when Miami is playing with a lead than when they are trailing, a trend I’m OK with weighing heavily in this matchup against the defense that ranks 18th in preventing YAC this season (17th over the past four weeks if you’re more concerned about recent form).

The Dolphins have a 24-point projection, and with Jaylen Waddle at less than full strength, you’re starting Hill.

I just provided that context to give you a little encouragement because who couldn’t use more of that this time of year?

Wan’Dale Robinson, WR | NYG (at ATL)

Wan’Dale Robinson is a valuable piece in the right situation. To be maximized in the scope of the NFL, he needs to play with a quarterback that garners downfield respect. For fantasy purposes, he needs that in addition to being on a team with at least average scoring expectations.

Neither is the case for the current version of the New York Giants.

Week 5 was Robinson’s last top-30 finish, and it’s pretty difficult to see that changing any time soon. I believe in his ability to win with a quick route, but that’s kind of like being the best barber in a town full of bald people — does it really matter?

Robinson is the type of player I hold on my roster as a bye-week filler, situations in which I’m OK with a limited ceiling and will chase 10 PPR points. There’s a time for that, it’s just not the fantasy playoffs.

Xavier Legette, WR | CAR (vs. ARI)

Xavier Legette is going to be more than a fun accent and interesting eating habits, but not yet.

Over the course of his last seven games played with fellow rook Jalen Cooker active, he’s turned 156 routes into just 148 receiving yards. There were some interesting scoring metrics on him earlier this season, but those have evaporated lately. Over his last five games, he’s been targeted on just 10.3% of his red-zone routes.

Citing “Carolina red-zone trips” is an issue unto itself given the small nature of it, and if Legette’s share is underwhelming, there’s no real reason to hold onto him, even if his status were to swing in a positive direction (groin).

Xavier Worthy, WR | KC (vs. HOU)

The trajectory of Xavier Worthy is exactly what you’d want, but the Patrick Mahomes injury obviously complicates things for a receiver who wasn’t consistent in the first place. If we are to assume that QB1 sits, I don’t think you can justify going this way with any level of confidence (he’s yet to score 12 PPR points in consecutive games and has five performances where he gave you under six points).

Asking him to produce in a tough team spot against the defense that owns the lowest opponent passer rating is a bridge I’m not willing to cross.

For those of you who are reading this despite being dead in your playoff league, thank you! When looking forward, Worthy has four straight games with double-digit expected PPR points, and that’s one more than he had through the first 11 weeks of his career. Rookie receivers often require patience. You’ll be just fine to go into 2025 with confidence in the Worthy profile, potentially at a discount if your leaguemates are just looking at raw numbers.

Zay Flowers, WR | BAL (vs. PIT)

Zay Flowers is exactly the type of profile I’m comfortable losing with.

Now, that might not seem like the most ringing endorsement, but that’s not the case at all. I’m going to be higher on him this summer than the industry as a whole.

What’s not to like? He runs highly efficient routes with a creative offensive mind at the controls that wants to involve him and is directing the league’s third-highest scoring offense. I’m taking that every time.

The results haven’t been ideal (Flowers hasn’t been a top-30 receiver since his massive Week 9), and he was held to just two catches in the first meeting with these Steelers, but I’m betting on this profile 17 times a year and letting the chips fall where they may (targeted on three of Lamar Jackson’s first four passes in Week 15).

He’s Khalil Shakir with more pedigree. Either Flowers or Shakir (if not both) have finished 12 of 15 weeks as a top-25 receiver. It wouldn’t shock me in the slightest if either parlayed that level of success into tremendous value next season if they can put it all together.

I prefer Flowers to Shakir from a talent standpoint, and that’s where I’ll land next season. As for this week, I’m sticking to the process and playing both without a second thought.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Tight Ends

Brenton Strange, TE | JAX (at LV)

It’s a lost season for the Jaguars, but like the Panthers, this team has some young members of the passing game that have the remaining weeks to further their development.

Brian Thomas Jr. is obviously an NFL player and potentially a bona fide star as early as next season, but what about Brenton Strange? The 23-year-old former second-round pick will have as great a role as he can handle coming down the stretch this season, and he’s done nothing but show well for himself when given the opportunity.

Strange’s production in four career games with 20+ routes:

• 12.4 PPR points per game
• 19.6% on-field target share
• 25% target rate in the red zone

Once you get past the top seven tight ends on the board this week, there are questions aplenty. Travis Kelce has his December woes and maybe no Patrick Mahomes, Dalton Kincaid is still working his way back, Tucker Kraft has cleared 41 yards once since Halloween, and the only reason I’m stopping with examples there is because I value the time of our wonderful editing staff.

The point is that you could squint and rank Strange as a top-10 tight end in the fantasy playoffs. I’m not going that far quite yet, but if a few injury situations go south, I might get there by Sunday. This is a weather-proof game against a bad defense that is without its best player and playing on short rest.

Brock Bowers, TE | LV (vs. JAX)

The only conversation surrounding Brock Bowers at this point is whether or not he is the TE1 this week and moving forward. I lean the direction of Trey McBride, simply because the volume is similar and I like the upside that comes with his looks over the mess that the Raiders have at this point in the proceedings. But reasonable minds can differ, and there is no denying that Bowers’ abilities to rack up YAC is already elite.

Word to the wise — Bowers is a unicorn. His excellence this season doesn’t erase the learning curve that we’ve seen at the tight end position. “Just look at what Bowers did in a feature role last season” is a sentence I expect to hear following the NFL Draft when a below-average offense brings in a TE prospect who charts well.

Be careful.

Cade Otton, TE | TB (at DAL)

I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple. I write a million words weekly, and I just keep copy-pasting that intro until the higher ups tell me that no one is consuming the Otton portion of this article.

With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• 14.1% on-field target share
• 19.5% red-zone target rate
• 4.3 aDOT

Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:

• 21.1% on-field target share
• 30% red-zone target rate
• 7,3 aDOT

Otton hauled in a pass on Tampa Bay’s second pass over the weekend in the blowout win over the Chargers and guess what?

I didn’t blink, and you shouldn’t have either. I’m a selfish person, and I can’t fade a player I don’t roster, so I’ve taken to betting his under receptions of late to leverage the overrating of the Bucs’ tight end. I laddered his total down as low as my sportsbooks would let me (I got under 4.5 heavily juiced and under 3.5 at plus money) last week.

Brenton Strange (JAX) and Stone Smartt (LAC) are good options for the “made up or NFL player” name game for casual observers — they also happen to be tight ends that I’d play in all formats this week with confidence over Otton.

Cole Kmet, TE | CHI (vs. DET)

Since the beginning of November, Chicago’s talented receiving trio has rotated whose day it is to shine. Rome Odunze and DJ Moore have both had 100-yard games during that stretch, while Keenan Allen posted consecutive top-five finishes at the position in Weeks 12-13.

We were always asking a lot of Caleb Williams to provide consistent value to two pass catchers, so why would we enter a matchup with our season on the line with his fourth option in our starting lineup?

Cole Kmet has struggled to make multiple impact plays over the course of 60 minutes all season long, and his 8.3% target share in the first meeting with the Lions doesn’t exactly inspire me with confidence for this game played on short rest.

Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF (vs. NE)

There are two types of people in this world, and the Dalton Kincaid situation separates them.

In his return from a Week 10 knee injury, Kincaid was targeted on 31.8% of his routes and wasn’t put in the trenches a single time. He made a highlight-reel, over-the-shoulder grab that reminded us all of what we saw from him a season ago.

A compromised Kincaid was on the field for 47.1% of Buffalo’s snaps last week, a rate that paled in comparison to Dawson Knox’s 73.5% snap share. Josh Allen completed just 57.1% of his passes directed at his recovering tight end, the lone thing the MVP front-runner struggled to do at a high rate on Sunday (76% completion rate to all other teammates).

Both of those paragraphs are 100% accurate. How did you read Kincaid’s Week 15?

I’m forever an optimist, and that has me trending toward the first one. There are plenty of moving pieces from a health perspective in this offense, but if I go down because I trusted a player tethered to this version of Allen, I can live with it. Kincaid currently sits as my TE10 for Week 16.

Dalton Schultz, TE | HOU (at KC)

Counting on C.J. Stroud has been more of a battle this season than any of us suspected during the preseason and an ancillary piece like Dalton Schultz is the first to see his stock tank.

Schultz has as many top-20 finishes on his 2024 résumé as Tommy Tremble and fewer than Austin Hooper. You’re not considering either of those names this week, so why treat Houston’s TE1 any differently? With under 35 receiving yards in 11 of 14 games this season, there just isn’t enough of a role available in an offense that isn’t as explosive as we had hoped.

Tucker Kraft’s current profile is what we had penciled in for Schultz this year.

David Njoku, TE | CLE (at CIN)

David Njoku couldn’t practice all week due to a hamstring injury, and while the team kept him listed as “questionable” up until Sunday, he seemed like a long shot to play all long.

His practice habits this week will again be worth monitoring, especially with this a lost season for the Browns. They need all of their key options healthy to open next season as they (presumably) intend to go back to the well-compensated Deshaun Watson under center.

That said, if Njoku clears the health hurdles, you play him and feel good about it. He lit up this vulnerable Bengals defense back in Week 7 (10-76-1 on a 29.2% target share). With three top-five finishes at the position over his last four games, the athletic profile he provides this passing game with is worthy of lineup-lock status.

Dawson Knox, TE | BUF (vs. NE)

Dawson Knox saw his last chance at value this fantasy season come and go without much more than a whimper in Week 15 as Dalton Kincaid (knee) returned to action.

He had a pair of chunk gains, something that seemingly everyone who played in the Bills/Lions shootout can claim. Outside of that, it was a lot of nothing, and certainly not enough to give me any level of confidence that his fantasy stock can survive as Kincaid is worked back into his full-time role.

Over the past two weeks, with 176 points put on the board, Knox managed just four looks on 54 routes run. If he’s not going to be heavily used in a pair of high-scoring games with the pass-catching nucleus at less than full strength, there’s really nothing to discuss here.

Knox’s remaining impact in our world for this season is any target limitations he puts on Kincaid — this isn’t a player that should be kicking around on redraft rosters at this point.

George Kittle, TE | SF (at MIA)

How good is George Kittle? At a position that is rarely called upon for role adjustments, he’s doing it. His blocking is obviously of value, but he’s vacuuming in targets are a consistent rate (6+ in seven of nine games) and doing all sorts of damage with them (he has a catch gaining more than 30 yards in six of his past seven contests).

The ability to earn looks is one thing, but the ability to do it all over the field is another. On Thursday night against the Rams, he posted 119 air yards, easily a season-high and six more than he had racked up in the three games prior.

His production aligns with that of his quarterback in that if you think this team is going to win, you’re locking him into your DFS lineup along with your season-long exposure (14+ PPR points in each of San Francisco’s past five victories).

Grant Calcaterra TE | PHI (at WAS)

The idea behind handcuffing a running back is that, at that position, the secondary option often picks up a similar role to the injured starter. That’s rarely the case among pass catchers, as the vacated usage is usually spread out among various players.

In Philadelphia, Dallas Goedert’s loss has been Grant Calcaterra’s direct gain. The third-year man out of SMU has cleared a 91% snap share in consecutive games. In a contest that has the potential to push 50 total points, there’s the potential for him to fall into low-end TE1 PPR value.

Do I like the fact that his 60 routes over the past two games have netted just 38 yards? Of course not, but there is a role available for a player who scored on 16.5% of his collegiate receptions and is facing the defense that allows touchdowns at the fifth-highest rate in the league (25.9%).

If the Brenton Stranges and Stone Smartts of the world aren’t available, Calcaterra has the potential to save your bacon this week in a pinch.

Hunter Henry, TE | NE (at BUF)

Despite an on-field target share trending up (22.1% over his past four games), it’s been more than two months since Hunter Henry found paydirt. Betting in any capacity for that to change this week with an implied team total struggling to reach 17 points is risky to say the least.

If the scoring equity is low, we need access to a ceiling in different ways, ways that are not available to Henry in this Drake Maye-led offense. In a game where the Patriots were behind for 85.7% of their offensive snaps and opposing a vulnerable Arizona defense, Henry recorded nine air yards.

Nine.

The Bills rank in the top 10 in YAC per reception and touchdown percentage to the tight end position, giving Henry far more risk than potential reward in this spot. Cut ties and move forward — Henry is not one of the two alliterative tight ends I have in my top 15 for Week 16.

Isaiah Likely, TE | BAL (vs. PIT)

Isaiah Likely played 66.1% of Baltimore’s offensive snaps last week, his highest rate since Week 8. That’s a step forward, but not one that is enough for him to rank as a viable option this week.

If you’re grasping for straws, Likely proved to be a tough cover the last time these two teams met (five targets and 75 yards on 19 routes in Week 11). That’s not nothing, but with essentially all of the red-zone usage non-negotiable at this point (Derrick Henry is the king, but Mark Andrews has established himself there at a high rate as well), Likely’s profile is too thin for my liking.

I have the Ravens winning this game, and in their past three victories, their TE2 has earned just three looks on 32 routes.

Jake Ferguson, TE | DAL (vs. TB)

Jake Ferguson has been one of my bigger misses this season, and I’ll learn from it moving forward. I’m likely going to be done with messing around in the middle tiers at the tight end position.

Some of the early-season returns were positive (three straight top-10 finishes from Weeks 3-5), but with just one such showing since, it’s clear that he is more of a risky streamer than the lineup lock I had hopes for.

The good news is that the Bucs allow the third-most yards per TE target this season (8.9) — and the Cowboys are likely to be playing from behind. The not-so-good news is the fact that Fergy doesn’t have an end-zone target since the season opener, and his target-per-route rate has dropped from 21.9% to 18.9% since returning from his concussion.

I have him in the Pat Freiermuth and Hunter Henry tier of tight ends that I’d rather not play but will consider if there isn’t a strong role otherwise available (for the record, I have Jacksonville’s Brenton Strange ahead of this tier).

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE | CAR (vs. ARI)

The potential is there for Ja’Tavion Sanders to develop alongside Bryce Young, and that’s going to have my attention in the 2025 redraft prep. I think there’s a lot to like in the rookie, but not with your season on the line after consecutive goose eggs.

This season, just one of his 250 routes have earned an end-zone target. With six instances in which a single-digit on-field target share was posted, the floor is too low to garner serious interest as a streaming candidate.

Jonnu Smith, TE | MIA (vs. SF)

Jonnu Smith is the sixth tight end since 2016 with at least 70 catches and six TDs through 15 weeks. In the scope of that list, only he and Travis Kelce were 29 years of age or older when accomplishing the feat — no matter how you split it, Miami’s veteran is having a helluva season.

His touchdown last week came on a rare Tua Tagovailoa scramble drill where he was unable to uncover on a fourth-down play. Every week he seems to find a different way to produce, and while the Dolphins’ postseason dreams are all but dead, I think their tight end can continue to help you chase yours.

Smith has posted five straight top-seven finishes at the position. I had him ranked as such last week, and he has entered my seven-man circle of trust at the position. You should feel fortunate to have him at your services as you chase glory.

Juwan Johnson, TE | NO (at GB)

The situation in New Orleans and trying to project target shares is beginning to feel like shuffling chairs on the Titanic. Would it be nice to get right? Sure, who doesn’t like being right? But would it impact the well being of any fantasy roster if I did nail it?

Nope.

Foster Moreau had more catches than Juwan Johnson had targets in the loss to the Commanders last week because of course he did. This roster is void of NFL-level playmakers not named Alvin Kamara, and with no stability under center, why get cute and take on a Packers defense that looked pretty good on Sunday night?

Johnson has scored on 13.6% of his career receptions — that’s the type of note that can be fun to use when streaming if the offense has a level of promise to it. This unit lacks that, and with an implied team total hovering around 15 points for Monday night, I’m very comfortable in taking the ‘less is more’ approach with any positive-based exposure to the Saints.

If you want to bet unders — we can have that discussion (the Best Bets column publishes every Sunday morning!).

Kyle Pitts, TE | ATL (vs. NYG)

Disaster. Bust. Waste of my time.

I hear of these things weekly and, more often than not, it feels accurate. There’s nothing in Kyle Pitts’ production profile that suggests that his physical tools are going to be unlocked at the right time.

That said, would you believe me if I told you that, through 15 weeks, he is one of five tight ends with a four-game streak of double-digit PPR performances (Weeks 5-8)? The other names on that list are universally trusted at this point (Trey McBride, George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Jonnu Smith), but the dots just haven’t connected.

It’s crazy that Pitts’ name is on the list. That’s kind of like me asking you to guess which two QBs drafted in 2021, 2022, or 2023 have at least three top-10 fantasy finishes this season.

The answers are Brock Purdy and … Anthony Richardson, the quarterback equivalent to Pitts.

Richardson and Pitts are the Spiderman meme for me — the idea of that player holding upside makes plenty of sense, but the idea of counting on either with my season on the line is nauseating.

Mark Andrews, TE | BAL (vs. PIT)

On Sunday, Mark Andrews became Baltimore’s all-time leader in touchdowns. After that reception, his touchdown rate for the season stood at 18.2% (career prior: 10.5%). If we had numbers like this mid-season, I’d be preaching caution, but at this point, you don’t care about long-term concerns — you’re looking to survive this week.

The role isn’t stable. Over his past six games, Andrews has caught at least five passes three times and failed to reach three grabs three times. One of those duds came in this exact matchup, downside that you need to be aware of (Week 11 at PIT: 22 yards on a 9.7% target share).

That said, Lamar Jackson has completed 90.9% of his red-zone passes when targeting Andrews and 69.2% when throwing to someone else.

Mike Gesicki, TE | CIN (vs. CLE)

Mike Gesicki has run a route on 96.7% of his snaps this season and that’s great. The Bengals have no interest in asking him to block, and that’s generally a good box to check. But getting on the field is also a positive — that is not currently a strength for their tight end.

That’s now consecutive games with under 20 routes run and 10 games this season with a sub-50% snap share. It was good to see that Joe Burrow’s first two completions in Tennessee went to Gesicki, but we are talking about trying to trust a TE with a limited role that has resulted in just one finish inside of the top 15 performers at the position since September.

There are tight ends in explosive offenses that I’d rather take a flier on than Gesicki.

There are backup tight ends walking into more featured roles that I’d rather take a flier on than Gesicki.

You don’t have to dig this deep.

Pat Freiermuth, TE | PIT (at BAL)

Pat Freiermuth has scored in three straight games, the first Steelers tight end to do that since Heath Miller opened the 2012 campaign with three in a row. The touchdowns are buoying a profile that is otherwise underwhelming.

We are pretty comfortable in labeling the Bengals as one of the worst defenses in the NFL. If you remove that contest, Patty Football is averaging 29.8 receiving yards and 2.8 catches per game since Week 8.

That’s walking a very fine line, especially if the Steelers welcome George Pickens back this week. Freiermuth saw a pair of end-zone targets in Sunday’s loss to the Eagles, bringing his season total up to two.

The recent fantasy points totals look better than the stat sheet suggests is wise to project. The Ravens are vulnerable through the air, but they are a top-10 defense in terms of YAC allowed, giving a player like Freiermuth one less path to making an impact.

Freiermuth currently is on the outside looking in at my top 12 at the position.

Sam LaPorta, TE | DET (at CHI)

I need a hand here.

Nobody in the fantasy football industry is shy about taking layups and nor should they. If I had a nickel for every “LaPorta Potty” reference after the slow start to this season, I’d have a lot of nickels because what good is change in 2024?

I think I refrained from such low-hanging fruit. Not because it wasn’t deserved (Sam LaPorta was TE17 in September after being a third-round pick in most drafts), but because I generally take a longer-term view. For better or worse, I stay locked into my prior takes for longer than most because I trust the work I put in to arrive at my takes.

Well, we are back now and I need your help. What’s the “good” version of “LaPorta Potty” when it comes to wordplay? I’ve toyed with Sam TeLaPorting Your Team, but you’re more creative than I am, so hit me up with your best ideas (https://x.com/KyleSoppePFN). The budding star has earned at least six targets in five straight games and has now posted three straight top-10 finishes at the position.

I’m starting LaPorta wherever I have him and am not hesitating at paying for his services in a DFS setting if his ownership numbers come in soft against a vulnerable defense on short rest that is playing out the string.

T.J. Hockenson, TE | MIN (at SEA)

With each passing week and the postseason an inevitability, the Vikings are best served to see if their star tight end can approach elite form. T.J. Hockenson’s snap share has gradually moved in the right direction after a November ramp-up, and I have no problem in labeling him as the pass catcher on this roster I trust most to fit the complementary role next to Justin Jefferson.

Jordan Addison has been great and carries more per-target upside than Hockenson, I don’t think that’s debatable, but the postseason can be as much about not beating yourself as it is about outright winning games. In that regard, I like what a fully involved Hockenson offers this offense.

The more that Minnesota puts on his plate, the better for fantasy managers. A short week here and then a west-to-east travel situation before your fantasy Super Bowl isn’t ideal, but I’ve got Hock locked into my top five at the position.

Travis Kelce, TE | KC (vs. HOU)

By normal human standards, a 100-catch pace with TE1 production in nearly 40% of games would be plenty, but Travis Kelce isn’t held to “normal human standards.” Expectations aside, we are in the much feared turn-into-a-pumpkin zone.

• 2023: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season
• 2022: Six straight scoreless games to end the regular season

Kelce scored twice in Week 15 of 2021 against the Chargers — he hasn’t caught a touchdown in December since. I know that because I’m a fantasy nerd. I doubt the Chiefs are aware of that fact because it hasn’t mattered in the least. It hasn’t stopped them from accomplishing their ultimate goal, and until this “ramp down to ramp up” thing fails, why would we expect it to change?

If Kelce were a receiver, we wouldn’t have an issue in benching him. The reason he is still in consideration is two-fold — it’s his résumé and the lack of reliable depth at the position.

I’ve got seven tight ends in the must-start bucket for this week and another eight in the next range that can be shuffled up in any order. Kelce is firmly in that second bucket, and if we are to assume that Patrick Mahomes sits, he shifts closer to the back end of that tier than the middle.

Trey McBride, TE | ARI (at CAR)

At this point, it’s pretty clear that the NFL doesn’t currently have an answer for Trey McBride. He’s posted four straight top-five finishes at the position (PPR) and has 10 top-10 weeks this season – he’s essentially comes with no risk and great upside at a position that, at times, feels like throwing darts.

Kyler Murray has the fifth-lowest average air yards (6.9 yards) among qualified QBs, and that leads me to believe that McBride’s elite floor is here to stay for well beyond this season. He has at least seven grabs and 10 targets in four consecutive games, joining Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Christian McCaffrey as the only active players with such a streak within their first three professional seasons.

It’s far too early to make any broad claims for next season – but if the industry doesn’t push the elite tight ends up draft boards, there might be a case to be made for taking two of the top-five at the position – locking in stable Flex production while weakening your opposition in the process.

I’m not locking that in as the Soppe Strategy to take to the bank just yet, but it’s bouncing around in my head.

Tucker Kraft, TE, | GB (vs. NO)

Tucker Kraft fell short of expectations last weekend (5.4 PPR points), but the process remains sound. He’s not part of the must-start tier at the position, but he’s in the mix for TE8 behind those locked-in seven – and it has very little to do with what he offers as a player.

• Kraft ranks fourth at the position in percentage of team snaps played (86%)
• The Packers have scored 30+ points in four straight games

That Green Bay streak is the second longest in franchise history (who can forget the seven games of 1963?), and those two traits are enough to land you, with confidence, inside my top-12 at a position that lacks consistency.

For his career, Kraft has caught 75% of the passes directed his way. With 12.6 yards per catch, those targets result in fantasy production. The Saints own the third-worst goal-to-go defense through 15 weeks, and should the Pack find themselves on the doorstep, it’s easy to envision a situation in which the road team backs the line of scrimmage to stop Josh Jacobs.

I’m not banking on a bail-out short touchdown, but the path is there given the role and scoring environment. I think you can feel good about plugging in Kraft and taking your chances.

Tyler Conklin, TE | NYJ (vs. LAR)

Tyler Conklin was inactive last week as he and his wife welcomed their first child into the world on Saturday night. There’s no health reason for him to not be with the team this week, but you can safely ignore the status of New York’s TE1.

Aaron Rodgers is looking at two players and two players only. Against the Jags, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson caught all three of his touchdown passes while accounting for 87.9% of his passing yards. Jeremy Ruckert got the start at tight end and did his best Conklin impression by turning three targets into 12 yards.

You can disagree with my novel on Rodgers, but I’d have to be really wrong for Conklin’s role to spike to that of a usable rate.

Will Dissly, TE | LAC (vs. DEN)

Will Dissly (shoulder) was inactive last week after not partaking in a single practice rep, paving the way for Stone Smartt to post double-digit PPR points in the loss to the Buccaneers (five catches for 50 yards).

For the season, Dissly has a 78.2% catch rate and has provided a level of stability to a passing offense that largely lacks that outside of Ladd McConkey. But might the role of Dissly be more valuable than the player himself?

That is, with Smartt coming in last week and essentially being a skinny version of Dissly, I’m tempted to think that “Insert Chain-Moving TE” in this Jim Harbaugh offense has a path to low-end appeal in PPR leagues. Operating under that logic, I prefer Smartt to Dissly moving forward.

That’s not to say he is the better player, but if we are in a position to play him, it means that the role is all his because Dissly remains sidelined. This role isn’t one that I’m confident can be divided and provide us with much, but if we can project the bulk of that usage for one player, the case could be made for a fringe-TE1 ranking.

Zach Ertz, TE | WAS (vs. PHI)

With Noah Brown and Austin Ekeler out, the Commanders will enter Week 16 with two active players that have over 300 receiving yards this season.

Think about that. Foster Moreau has 302 this season for the Saints – he’s been the TE3 in an offense that has struggled to pass the ball for the majority of this season.

Zach Ertz turned a 21.9% target share into six catches for 47 yards and a touchdown in the Week 11 meeting with these Eagles.

I’ll happily admit that there is a wide range of outcomes to consider (five games with over a dozen points and four games with under six this season) and that this matchup isn’t ideal (PHI: fourth-lowest opponent score rate). But with backup quarterbacks largely responsible for getting TEs in this range the ball (Jacksonville, Dallas, and maybe Kansas City), Ertz is as live an option as anyone outside of a clear-cut top-seven at the position.