The Denver Broncos survived a scare against the Indianapolis Colts last week. ESPN had the Colts at a 74.1% win probability right before Jonathan Taylor broke out a 41-yard run to advance the lead to 20-7 and put them well over 80% win probability.
Well, he dropped it at the 1-yard line, and the entire game’s momentum switched, leading to a 31-13 Broncos victory. The moral of the story is that the score is not indicative of the game they played.
The Los Angeles Chargers got humbled last week by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They lost 40-17, putting up an eighth-percentile performance in EPA (expected points added) and a 35th-percentile performance in success rate. Luckily, they are still 8-6 and currently expected to make the playoffs, so long as they right the ship.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chargers -2.5 - Moneyline
Chargers (-148); Broncos (+124) - Over/Under
42 total points - Game Time
8:15 p.m ET - Location
SoFi Stadium
Broncos vs. Chargers Preview and Prediction
Denver ranks 23rd in offensive EPA per play according to TruMedia. Yet, they still rank 10th in points per game this season. Some of this can be explained by the fact that the Broncos are absolutely dominating the field position battle on both sides of the ball.
Opposing offenses have the second-worst average starting field position against the Broncos’ defense. The Denver offense averages the fourth-best starting field position. If you combine the two, Denver averages the second-most-advantageous field position in the league. This is in addition to ranking ninth in turnover-margin, making it clear how a below-average offense puts up so many points.
Denver’s defense prides itself on aggression and forcing the quarterback into mistakes. They have proven this by ranking sixth in turnovers forced per game, second in pressure rate, third in quick pressure rate, and third in blitz rate. It generally works really well, outside of the games where they aren’t playing a top-flight quarterback.
The three games this season that the Broncos’ defense has been average or worse in EPA came against Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. The one thing all of these quarterbacks have in common is the ability to evade pressure and reduce mistakes at the highest level. Herbert and the Chargers have lost the least amount of EPA to turnovers in the entire league. Much of this is because of Herbert’s league-lowest interception rate.
Despite ranking 17th in EPA as a whole, the Chargers’ offense ranks 11th in EPA against the blitz. If you can get pressure without bringing extra guys, you are more likely to have success against this offense, which ranks 24th in EPA when pressured. According to PFF’s separation report, the Chargers rank 24th in separation. Of the three players that qualify, they rank 48th, 90th, and 106th out of 127 total players.
One of the more impressive aspects of the Denver defense is the ability to limit explosive plays. They rank 11th and sixth in rate of passing and rushing explosive plays given up, respectively. This proves difficult for a Chargers offense that ranks 29th in success rate and needs chunk plays for efficiency.
The Chargers’ defense was uncharacteristically bad last week. They gave up seven plays of 20 or more yards and two plays of 50 or more yards. This has been the main issue with their defense all season long. Seven teams have had an above-average number of 20+ yard gains on the defense, and the Chargers gave up an average of 21.57 points per game to those teams.
Despite having an Achilles heel for explosives (ranked 20th and 21st in passing and rushing explosives given up, respectively), their 21.57 points per game would still put them as the ninth-best scoring defense. This shows up by the fact that they rank seventh in defensive EPA per play and ninth in defensive success rate.
The Broncos rank eighth in generating explosive passing plays and 15th in rushing — not necessarily equipped to take advantage of the Chargers’ defensive weakness. In fact, they actually managed an above-average number of explosive plays in the first matchup but still only scored 16 points.
One problematic difference for the Chargers’ defense is their performance in man versus zone. They rank 30th in defensive EPA when running man coverage and fifth in zone coverage. Against teams with elite wide receivers or dominant quarterbacks (like the Bucs), this is a huge matchup issue. Luckily, the Broncos rank last in offensive EPA against man coverage.
One area I expect the Broncos to lean on is the Bo Nix rushing game. He had six rushes for 61 yards in their last matchup. The Chargers rank 24th in defensive EPA when a team scrambles and 22nd in EPA against designed QB runs. This should help a Broncos rushing offense that ranks 23rd in EPA and averages 4.1 yards per rush (23rd).
Overall, I expect this to be just as close as the last game. With that being said, I just don’t think Bo Nix is ready to take on Jesse Minter and the Chargers’ defensive scheme. The Chargers have a clear weakness in man coverage, so they run the second-most zone. Minter also ranks fifth in the Shannon entropy unpredictability metric, which means Nix won’t get standard looks to help him out.
My pick: Chargers -2.5 (-110)
What Is the AFC Wild Card Playoff Picture Entering Week 16?
The current AFC Wild Card standings are as follows:
5) Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
6) Denver Broncos (9-5)
7) Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
8) Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
9) Miami Dolphins (6-8)
10) Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
As you can see, there is a group of three teams at 9-5 and 8-6, with a second group at 6-8. All three of the teams currently in the AFC playoff spots control their own destiny, while the other three teams all need help to play in the postseason.
What Are the AFC Wild Card Clinching and Elimination Scenarios in Week 16?
All three of the Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos can clinch playoff spots in Week 16.
Broncos’ clinching scenarios:
- Broncos win or tie
- Bengals lose or tie + Colts lose or tie + Dolphins lose or tie
Chargers’ clinching scenarios:
- Chargers win + Colts lose or tie + Dolphins lose or tie
- Chargers tie + Colts lose + Dolphins lose + Bengals lose or tie
Ravens’ clinching scenarios:
- Ravens win or tie
- Colts lose or tie + Dolphins lose or tie
Accordingly, each of the Colts, Dolphins, and Bengals have AFC Wild Card elimination scenarios this weekend, but none of them can be eliminated without playing.
Colts’ elimination scenarios:
- Colts lose + Chargers win or tie
- Colts tie + Chargers win
Dolphins’ elimination scenarios:
- Dolphins lose + Chargers win or tie
- Dolphins tie + Chargers win
Bengals’ elimination scenarios:
- Bengals lose
- Bengals tie + Chargers win or tie