Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season begins the chaos of the Christmas-time scheduling, with games scheduled on nine days in a 12-day span. That change in the routine for several teams, combined with injuries continuing to wreak havoc, can make things tough to predict when it comes to these late-season contests.
To try and make sense of it all, we will use our PFN metrics of PR+, Offense+, and Defense+ to break down all 16 games and analyze how we see each playing out. We will then give our NFL picks and predictions, highlighting which side we will take straight up and what potential bets could be worth making in the Week 16 slate.
NFL Week 16 Betting Lines, Odds, Picks, Predictions
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
- Moneyline: Broncos +136; Chargers -162
- Total: 43
The Los Angeles Chargers must be wishing this game did not get flexed into Thursday night after the way Justin Herbert was limping around the field late in their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. Even with a healthy Herbert, this line is the wrong way around, so with their passer also struggling, it seems bizarre that the Chargers are three-point favorites.
The Denver Broncos are the better team offensively and defensively, although they have played an easier schedule than the Chargers. When these two sides met back in Week 6, the Chargers jumped out to a 23-point lead that they held onto with relative comfort in a 23-16 win. However, that was a very different version of Bo Nix and the Broncos offense.
This is a game where I am taking the Broncos every which way possible. Their defense should be able to cause chaos for Herbert if he has mobility issues. Additionally, there is no guarantee that the Los Angeles quarterback will last the full game without having to step aside due to his ankle injury.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 17
Pick: Broncos ML and +3
Houston Texans (-2) at Kansas City Chiefs
- Moneyline: Texans -130; Chiefs +110
- Total: 41.5
The line for this game appears to have been set with the assumption that Patrick Mahomes will not play, or if he does, he will be at far less than 100%. That is a fair assumption to make after we saw Mahomes hobbling off the field and inside the stadium after Sunday’s game in Cleveland. Resting him this week would be a smart play with two short weeks in a row for the Chiefs.
With Mahomes, the statistics say that this game would favor Kansas City, especially since it is at home. However, it is not as lop-sided as you might think, with a 13-1 team facing a 9-5 one. The Chiefs are better offensively, but the Texans’ defense has been the better of the two units, while they have also been better on special teams and played a tougher schedule.
Backing Houston, a warm-weather team that plays in a dome, on the road in Kansas City makes me nervous, even if Carson Wentz is starting. C.J. Stroud has been concerningly mediocre this year, and the Texans have lost road games in Green Bay, New York, and Tennessee in the past nine weeks.
The smart way to bet this game might be to wait until Mahomes is officially ruled out and then see if you can get Kansas City catching somewhere close to a touchdown with Wentz. While he is certainly a downgrade on Mahomes, Houston has not been convincing in its victories. If you are betting on this game today, the under would be the play with the Texans struggling defensively and a backup quarterback potentially starting for the Chiefs.
Prediction: Texans 17, Chiefs 16
Pick: Under 41.5
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
- Moneyline: Steelers +220; Ravens -270
- Total: 46.5
There is a lot on the line Saturday afternoon in Baltimore. If the Steelers win, they can clinch the AFC North with two games to play, while the Ravens will put themselves in the box seat with a victory of their own. Pittsburgh’s loss on Sunday certainly raises question marks about its credentials against the very best teams, but Baltimore also lost to the Eagles a couple of weeks ago and fell apart offensively in Western Pennsylvania in Week 11.
The Ravens need to avoid this becoming a tight defensive struggle where special teams play a big role. While they have a huge edge offensively, the Steelers are the better team defensively and on special teams. However, Pittsburgh has achieved that while playing a significantly easier schedule than Baltimore, making this game an intriguing one.
Our PR+ metric points to the Ravens being the side to take here, but laying six points is a steep number in a divisional matchup. However, this line is set at a point where a teaser would essentially just be taking the Ravens’ ML, which is the side I favor here. Whether it be in an ML parlay or as part of a teaser, Baltimore should get some revenge.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Steelers 20
Pick: Ravens ML as an ML parlay or part of a teaser
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14)
- Moneyline: Patriots +625; Bills -950
- Total: 46.5
This game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills should be one-sided. The Bills are by far the superior team, with an edge offensively and defensively, while having played a tougher schedule. Yet, this game screams “let down” after a huge win in Detroit in Week 15.
Buffalo’s defense is crumbling due to injuries. The Patriots’ offense is unlikely to be good enough to exploit it, but this could be a game where the Bills start flat and then have to rally at some point. While they should still win, laying 14 points is a bit too rich. Even teasing down it to eight creates some nerves in a game that could be rather underwhelming for Buffalo.
A lot will depend on what happens on Saturday. If the Chiefs lose, then the Bills will have a glimmer of hope for the #1 seed, but if Kansas City wins Saturday, it could create an odd atmosphere in Orchard Park. I am going to pass this game in terms of the current lines, but with both defenses struggling, the over is somewhat intriguing, especially if you take it down to 40.5 as part of a teaser.
Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 20
Pick: Over 40.5 as part of a teaser
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Commanders
- Moneyline: Eagles -180; Commanders +150
- Total: 46.5
The last matchup between these two sides was fairly one-sided, even if the score difference was only eight points. However, that was a game on a short week for a rookie quarterback coming off a tough loss against a physical team. This game will have a different feel, with the Eagles coming off a game against the hard-hitting Steelers defense.
The line here makes sense because Philadelphia is the better team, and Washington’s home-field advantage has not proven all that important in recent weeks. The Commanders have the better numbers offensively on the season, but the Eagles have been better as the season has progressed. Philadelphia’s defense now ranks second in the league and has proven itself against tough competition.
While Washington has been the feel-good story of the season, its strength of victory (.280) is the lowest of any team currently in a playoff spot. It has not beaten a team with a winning record this season, and it is hard to see it beating an Eagles team that is on the march for the top seed in the NFC. Take Philadelphia laying the points here.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Commanders 20
Pick: Eagles -3.5
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
- Moneyline: Browns +285; Bengals -360
- Total: 49.5
The Cincinnati Bengals kept their playoff hopes alive in Week 15 and now they host the Cleveland Browns, who have uncertainty at the quarterback position. It would not be a surprise to see Cleveland give Dorian Thompson-Robinson an extended run to close out the final three weeks as they evaluate the options for next season. That should only serve to help the Bengals win this game, as it removes the big X-factor of Jameis Winston.
Cincinnati won the last meeting between the two teams back in Week 7, but the metrics tell you that these two squads are not too different. The Bengals have the superior offense, but their defense is a mess, while the Browns’ defense remains a top-10 unit this season. Cleveland is also the better group on special teams and has played a tougher schedule.
If Winston starts, the range of outcomes for this game is as wide as any game on the slate. He can help the Browns score 30+ points, or he can throw multiple interceptions. Those outcomes narrow a little with Thompson-Robinson, and the Bengals become a more comfortable team to back. Even so, their defense makes it tough to lay seven points comfortably.
The best way to play this game would be to tease Cincinnati down inside a field goal, especially if Winston does get benched. If Winston is playing, then the over becomes the play that makes the most sense.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Browns 20
Pick: Bengals below -3 in a teaser
Detroit Lions (-7.5) at Chicago Bears
- Moneyline: Lions -360; Bears +285
- Total: 46.5
The first instinct of this line is that it is somewhat conservative. That is probably because the Detroit Lions only won by three points on Thanksgiving and could easily have lost that game if the Chicago Bears had a little more composure. However, that was a game played on a short week, where the Liosn appeared to run out of steam.
All the metrics tell you that Detroit should be a comfortable winner in this one. It is the superior team in every respect, significantly ahead of the Bears on offense and just ahead of them on defense and special teams. Additionally, the Lions have played the harder of the two schedules to this point.
Normally we may be a little hesitant to take a dome team outdoors on the road in December, but Detroit has an offense built to handle those conditions. While it is forecast to be cold in Chicago next Sunday, there does not appear to be any adverse weather forecasted at this time. The cold weather should depress scoring a little, but the Lions should still run out as easy winners.
Prediction: Lions 27, Bears 17
Pick: Lions -7.5
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5)
- Moneyline: Giants +370; Falcons -485
- Total: 42.5
There is no nice way to describe the New York Giants’ situation. The quarterback situation is a complete mess, and the team is accelerating towards a two-win season and potentially the No. 1 overall pick. However, the Atlanta Falcons are not in a much better situation, with four losses in a row and questions about the future of Kirk Cousins.
The metrics still favor the Falcons as the better team overall, but laying 9.5 points with an offense that has scored just 57 points in the last four games seems bold. The defense has been struggling, allowing 59 points in the last two games and 117 points over the last four weeks. While the Giants’ offense should not be enough to beat Atlanta, they have a shot at keeping it within 10 points.
This is a game between two teams ranking inside the bottom half of our power rankings, and therefore, I would prefer not to bet on — and, frankly, watch — all that much of it.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Giants 17
Pick: Pass
Los Angeles Rams (-3) at New York Jets
- Moneyline: Rams -162; Jets +136
- Total: 47.5
The New York Jets have quietly been one of the more entertaining teams to watch over the last four games. They have scored 26.5 points per game and allowed 27.8 points per game in that span. All four of those contests have been decided by one score and have been decided in the final minutes.
In that respect, they have found an intriguing partner in the Los Angeles Rams, who have seen four of their last five games decided by one score. The one concern with the Rams is that their offense is seemingly very hard to predict week to week. Additionally, this game looks set to be played in below-freezing temperatures, which could be tough for a team from a warm-weather climate that plays their football in a dome.
The metrics for this game are very close, with Los Angeles having the edge offensively but New York boasting better numbers defensively and on special teams. On a neutral field, the Rams to win by three points would be the play, but in a potentially cold-weather game, it is hard to trust them with confidence to win and to cover. Therefore, this game is one to pass on in Week 16.
Prediction: Rams 23, Jets 20
Pick: Pass
Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
- Moneyline: Cardinals -218; Panthers +180
- Total: 46.5
After several promising performances, the Carolina Panthers took a massive step back in Week 15 against the Dallas Cowboys. They now face an Arizona Cardinals team that has proven capable of beating up on bad teams this season. Arizona has been a very Jekyll and Hyde unit in 2024, but the metrics tell us that they are the better team across the board.
Chilly weather being forecasted for Charlotte on Sunday does not make this as easy as it should be to take the Cardinals, but they should have too much for the Panthers. Lay the points with Arizona, but it is understandable if that does not make you feel comfortable, given the up-and-down nature of its recent performances.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Panthers 16
Pick: Cardinals -4.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
- Moneyline: Titans +170; Colts -205
- Total: 42.5
The Indianapolis Colts might be the most confounding team in the NFL, and we saw it again on Sunday. Somehow, despite wildly inconsistent play from Anthony Richardson, they continue to remain competitive in games and could easily have won against the Broncos in Denver if not for a moment of madness from Jonathan Taylor. In contrast, the Titans are fading badly and could be making a change at quarterback this week.
Indianapolis is the better of the two teams, and they have something of substance to play for. It already won a close game in Tennessee, and it very much feels like that could be the case again this week. Richardson makes them a tough team to trust, and for that reason, this is another game to pass on, especially in terms of the spread.
Prediction: Colts 20, Titans 17
Pick: Pass
Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks
- Moneyline: Vikings -230; Seahawks +190
- Total: 41.5
Sunday night showed us where the Seattle Seahawks sit relative to the rest of the NFC. They are a good enough team to beat other middling teams but are not a team we should expect to compete with the very best in the conference. That is what the Minnesota Vikings are, as they remain fully engrossed in the race for the NFC North and the top seed in the NFC.
Per our metrics, the Vikings are the better team on offense, defense, and special teams, although they have played an easier schedule than the Seahawks. Playing in Seattle in potentially wet conditions adds a complication for a dome team, but Minnesota should have too much talent on both sides of the ball, especially with injury questions surrounding Geno Smith.
The right side of this line is to take the Vikings laying the points. Sam Howell would add a little more variability to the potential outcome, but overall, he lowers the median output for the Seahawks in this game. With Smith, our metrics have the Vikings favored by around four points, so Howell shifts that closer to a touchdown.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Seahawks 17
Pick: Vikings -4.5
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-2)
- Moneyline: 49ers +110; Dolphins -130
- Total: 46.5
This contest in Miami will be an elimination game for both sides, and that adds an extra layer as Mike McDaniel faces his old team. McDaniel does not have a good record against his former colleagues, which is a concern for the Miami Dolphins this week. However, the San Francisco 49ers’ injury situation has left them on their knees, ready to be put out of their misery.
Our metrics have these two groups very even across the board. The only thing that separates them is that the 49ers have played a schedule that ranks inside the top 10, while the Dolphins have played the second-easiest schedule in the league. In this head-to-head, that only counts for so much at this point in the season.
McDaniel’s record against his colleagues is a major concern here, and Kyle Shanahan should be better placed than anyone to know how this offense will operate. The problem is simply that San Francisco does not have enough high-end healthy bodies left to go on the road and be competitive for 60 minutes. This is a game to pass on but it could end up being one of the more entertaining matches if both teams take the challenge of avoiding elimination to heart.
Prediction: 49ers 23, Dolphins 20
Pick: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders (-1)
- Moneyline: Jaguars -105; Raiders -115
- Total: 39.5
If it wasn’t for the crumbling New York Giants, this would essentially be the matchup to decide the direction of the first-overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Games like this are odd because both teams would be better off long-term losing, but there is not a player on the field who will think that way. Additionally, you have two coaches potentially fighting for their jobs, so they are going to be pulling out all the stops to try and win.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were fun against the New York Jets in Week 15, as we saw Mac Jones let loose and try to make plays as opposed to taking safer options. Hopefully, that continues into Week 16 as it could make for a very entertaining game. The Raiders have also not given up without a fight this season, but we have no idea what their quarterback situation might look like by next week.
Taking the Jaguars to win is probably the right play here. They have the better offense and special teams but are marginally worse on defense. They also have a relatively small chance of getting the first pick and seem to be a team that is still fighting hard. Still, it would take a lot for me to part with any money backing Jones and Jacksonville in a dead-rubber Week 16 matchup.
Prediction: Jaguars 20, Raiders 17
Pick: Lean Jaguars ML
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys
- Moneyline: Buccaneers -225; Cowboys +185
- Total: 48.5
The Cowboys do not seem to care that their season is essentially over. They have now won three of their last four, with their offense finally waking up from its early-season slumber. They are averaging 27.8 points per game in the last four contests and have faced some very mediocre defenses in that time.
A few weeks ago, you would have said that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense fit that description, but they have allowed just 15 points per game since their bye, allowing over 20 points just once in that time. The opposing offenses have not been the highest caliber, but neither is Dallas’ attack.
Based on all our metrics, Tampa Bay should win this game comfortably, but the mental side of their season has flipped somewhat. It is no longer playing catch-up to the Falcons; instead, they are now the team with the target on their back, who are expected to finish 3-0 and win the NFC South. That can cause strange things to happen, and the Cowboys have proven they are not going away without a fight.
The numbers would suggest that you lay the points with the Buccaneers. They are a far superior offense while posting similar defensive and special teams numbers, all while playing a tougher schedule. Dallas is also 1-6 at home this season and 0-3 in its last three prime-time games.
Prediction: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 17
Pick: Buccaneers -4.5
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-13)
- Moneyline: Saints +550; Packers -800
- Total: 42.5
The Green Bay Packers laid their credentials firmly on the table in their Week 15 win over the Seahawks. They have established themselves as a top-four team in the NFC and should beat the Saints at home on a potentially freezing night in Lambeau Field. The only concern is that with a meeting with the Vikings in Week 17, the Packers overlook this game slightly and make costly errors.
The Saints have shown they are not going away without a fight in recent weeks. They have pushed all of their last three games to the wire, but it has been their defense that has done the hard work, allowing an average of just 17.3 points per game. Unfortunately, the offense is all over the place, and that is not likely to be much better in the freezing conditions.
Green Bay has won three of its last four games by a margin of 13 points or more, with two of them coming at home against warm-climate-based teams. It has that same situation again this week, potentially against Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener at quarterback. The Packers should win comfortably, but the safer play here would be to take the line down to around a touchdown in a teaser.
Prediction: Packers 30, Saints 17
Pick: Packers -7 in a teaser