The NFL season continues to move toward the end as Week 15 comes to an end. In the weeks ahead, divisions will be clinched, seeding will be solidified, and the hunt for the Wild Card spots will tighten.
Let’s look at how the Week 15 results have impacted the standings and playoff picture so far while also recapping some of the top games of the week.
Week 15 NFL Standings and Playoff Picture
AFC Playoff Picture
1. Kansas City Chiefs, 13-1 (defeated Browns)
2. Buffalo Bills, 11-3 (defeated the Lions)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers, 10-4 (lost to the Eagles)
4. Houston Texans, 9-5 (defeated the Dolphins)
5. Baltimore Ravens, 9-5 (defeated the Giants)
6. Denver Broncos, 9-5 (defeated the Colts)
7. Los Angeles Chargers, 8-6 (lost to Buccaneers)
In the Hunt
8. Indianapolis Colts, 6-8 (lost to the Broncos)
9. Miami Dolphins, 6-8 (lost to the Texans)
10. Cincinnati Bengals, 6-8 (defeated the Titans)
NFC Playoff Picture
1. Detroit Lions, 12-2 (lost to the Bills)
2. Philadelphia Eagles, 12-2 (defeated the Steelers)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8-6 (defeated the Chargers)
4. Los Angeles Rams, 8-6 (defeated the 49ers)
5. Minnesota Vikings, 12-2 (defeated the Bears)
6. Green Bay Packers, 10-4 (defeated the Seahawks)
7. Washington Commanders, 9-5 (defeated the Saints)
In the Hunt
8. Seattle Seahawks, 8-6 (lost to the Packers)
9. Atlanta Falcons, 7-7 (defeated the Raiders)
10. Arizona Cardinals, 7-7 (defeated the Patriots)
11. San Francisco 49ers, 6-8 (lost to the Rams)
12. Dallas Cowboys, 6-8 (defeated the Panthers)
13. New Orleans Saints, 5-9 (lost to the Commanders)
Updated Week 15 Recap and Results
Cowboys Beat Panthers To Somehow Keep Playoff Hopes Alive
The Carolina Panthers were heading in the right direction. They were favored in the betting markets for the first time in 33 months ahead of their home against the Cowboys. Bryce Young was finally playing better and was starting to look like the draft pick everyone expected him to be.
Unfortunately, the Cowboys had other plans. Cooper Rush looked like the second coming of Dak Prescott as Dallas’ offense rolled and CeeDee Lamb returned to form.
Entering the game, 27 teams had a win as an outright favorite this season. Carolina hasn’t done it since the Cleveland baseball team changed its name, since Tom Brady became the NFL leader in passing yards, Jon Gruden coached the Raiders, Jay-Z was inducted into the Rock and Rock HOF, “No Time To Die” premiered, the Aaron Rodgers “immunized” interview, Paul Rudd was named the Sexist Man Alive, Dan Campbell won his first game as the head man in Detroit … and so on and so forth.
Let’s just say that it’s been a while, and that streak continued, thanks to Dallas.
Chiefs Get the Win, but at What Cost?
The Chiefs got the win against the Cleveland Browns, but all of the headlines will be focused on QB Patrick Mahomes, who left the game late in the fourth quarter with what looked like an ankle injury.
MORE: Patrick Mahomes Injury Update
Outside of the Mahomes injury, this was the best game the Chiefs have played in some time. At one point, they were up three scores. It was their largest lead at any point since Week 9 of last season vs. the Dolphins (21-0 in Germany). However, the Browns did make things interesting near the end, but not nearly enough to ever give the impression Kansas City would lose.
In addition to the Mahomes injury, on the other side of the field, Browns QB Jameis Winston was actually benched in the fourth quarter after throwing three interceptions. Through Week 6, 51 players had more pass attempts than Winston. He has three games this year with 3+ interceptions and is the only QB with more than one such game this year.
Lions Lose Shootout at Home
Entering Week 15, the Lions were on a franchise-record 11-game winning streak and PFN’s model was in love with Detroit. The Lions were ranked the No. 1 offense and No. 2 defense, and they had the best odds of earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed (55.6%) and winning the Super Bowl (38.2%).
However, in Week 15, the Bills upset the Lions at Ford Field, 48-35. Jared Goff threw for 494 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 14 passes for 193 yards and a touchdown, while Jahmyr Gibbs added 114 total yards and two scores (one rushing and one receiving), but it wasn’t enough to pull out the win.
Detroit has already clinched a playoff spot, but this loss makes the battle for the NFC North title and NFC’s No. 1 seed significantly more interesting. In fact, the outcome of this game might have an impact on both No. 1 seed races.
Following this loss, the Lions’ chance of winning the NFC North is now 56.7% (compared to 34.6% for the Vikings) and their odds of securing the No. 1 seed are 40.8% (compared to 31.9% for Philadelphia and 22.7% for Minnesota). Detroit still has an NFL-best 25.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl in our model.
Buffalo has now won eight of their last nine games. While the Bills have already locked up the AFC East, they continue to chase the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
After this win, Buffalo now has an 19.7% chance of securing the AFC’s No. 1 seed (compared to 77% for Kansas City). If Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury sidelines him down the stretch, this race could get interesting.
Buccaneers Make Statement in NFC
One month ago, the Buccaneers were 4-6 and in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Well, they haven’t lost since. With Sunday’s 40-17 road win over the Chargers, Tampa Bay improved to 8-6 and is in the driver’s seat in the NFC South.
Against the Chargers’ terrific defense, Baker Mayfield completed 22 of 27 passes for 288 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception, Mike Evans caught nine passes for 159 yards and two scores, while Bucky Irving rushed 15 times for 117 yards. While Los Angeles entered this week as the NFL’s best run defense, the Bucs dominated on the ground, rushing for 222 yards (and totaling 505 yards).
The red-hot Bucs have the NFL’s fourth-easiest schedule down the stretch, with remaining games against the Cowboys (road), Panthers, and Saints. After this win over the Chargers, the Bucs now have an 83.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 79.8% chance of winning the NFC South. It’s very possible that Tampa Bay could win the division and enter the postseason on a seven-game winning streak.
Vikings Show Up During Monday Night Football
While debuting their “Winter Warrior” alternate uniforms, the Vikings took it to the Bears, 30-12, improving to 12-2 on the season. In one of the coolest moments of Week 15, Justin Jefferson used his touchdown celebration to honor Vikings legend Randy Moss, who recently announced that he is battling cancer.
Prior to the game, Moss’ former teammates, Cris Carter and Jake Reed, carried his Vikings jersey out to midfield during the pregame coin toss as well.
With the Lions’ loss to the Bills and the Vikings’ win over the Bears, Minnesota might have a chance to win the NFC North (34.6% odds) and the NFC’s No. 1 seed (22.7% chance). The Vikings will try to improve to 13-2 with a win over the Seahawks next Sunday.
Falcons Stay Relevant
The Falcons ended their four-game losing streak with a 15-9 victory over the Raiders on Monday Night Football. Kirk Cousins threw his first touchdown pass since Nov. 3, but he still had a very mediocre game (completing 11 of 17 passes for 112 yards, one touchdown, and one interception). It’s clear that the Falcons don’t trust Cousins to make plays, and this performance against a weak Raiders defense isn’t going to silence the calls for No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr.
Atlanta was once in the driver’s seat in the NFC South, but now they have just a 24.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 19.5% chance of winning the division.
PFN’s metrics have been low on the Falcons for much of the season, predicting that the Buccaneers would ultimately come from behind to win the division thanks to their dominant offense and easy schedule down the stretch. If Tampa Bay wins out against the Cowboys, Panthers, and Saints, the division title belongs to them.
The Falcons are a great example of how quickly things can change in the NFL. Not too long ago, Atlanta was 6-3 and looking like a potential playoff contender. Now, many fans are calling for Raheem Morris to bench Cousins for Penix, and even if Atlanta finds a way to sneak into the postseason, this isn’t a team that is scaring anyone.