With four weeks to go in the 2024 NFL season and the fantasy football playoffs starting now, the weather is starting to play a bigger role in the action. After a relatively placid overall Week 14, a number of games could be majorly impacted by various weather conditions this weekend.
Let’s break down the Week 15 NFL weather forecast and the potential fantasy impacts in each of the games being played outdoors this weekend.
What Is the Fantasy Impact of the Week 15 NFL Weather?
The National Weather Service‘s weather forecasts for the games are up to date as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024. Data used in the article is courtesy of TruMedia unless stated. All kickoff times are ET.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 40s
- Showers: 65% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 17-18 mph southeasterly with gusts up to 30 mph
The worst of the weather this week looks to be in Cleveland, where the Cleveland Browns will host the Kansas City Chiefs. This game could see the trifecta of relatively low temperatures, relatively high sustained wind speeds with gusting conditions, and rain. That could play havoc with offensive performances for both teams.
If we isolate the temperatures and the sustained wind speeds over 15 miles per hour, we historically see a 10-15% reduction in fantasy output. If you then add rain into the equation, that impact drops to around 25-30%, with gusts adding further concern. The main areas to avoid here would be the deep-passing and kicking options.
It’s difficult to start either kicker in this contest, and the receiving options are also a concern. The only player in the passing game that you trust implicitly is Travis Kelce, and the rest all got a significant downgrade as startable options this week.
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 70s
- Showers: 15% chance at kickoff decreasing throughout the game
- Wind: 14 mph northeasterly with gusts up to 22 mph
The game in Jacksonville will see the highest temperatures of any outdoor game this week, but there’s a risk for rain and wind, limiting some of the optimism. The positive news is that the current forecasts have the rain largely falling away in the first hour after the game, but it may impact the whole first half. Additionally, rain-affected games in these temperatures are not usually a major concern.
More positive news is that the sustained wind speeds of 14 mph do not tend to impact games too heavily at these temperatures. The gusts add a slight complication, but the historical fantasy impact is around 5%. Therefore, when you combine that with the rain potential, you’re essentially downgrading all passing-game options by around 10% in this matchup.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-40s
- Showers: 20-25% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 5-7 mph northeasterly
Things could get interesting in Charlotte this weekend if we see rain during the game. Right now, the chance of rain is forecasted to be below 25% until late in the fourth quarter. However, there’s a chance we see some sprinkling of rain during the rest of the game.
The rest of the weather conditions for this game aren’t that much of an issue for fantasy managers. Sure, temperatures in the mid-40s historically lead to lower fantasy outputs than games played in a dome, but for an outdoor game at this time of the year, these are relatively comfortable temperatures. There’s also not enough wind forecasted for concern.
This is a forecast to watch heading into kickoff, because the rain is really the key element. As things stand this morning, it appears the worst of the rain will hit Charlotte after the game is over. That means we can expect around a 5% decrease in fantasy output compared to dome games, but as long as we don’t get persistent rain, there shouldn’t be too much concern.
If the rain does start to fall in significant volume ahead of the game, then we’re looking at a potential 20-25% decrease in fantasy output. That will largely impact the passing game, but it could also lead to some ball-security concerns.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 13-14 mph southerly with gusts up to 23 mph
The game in Nashville between the Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans looks set to see a slight impact from the wind, but otherwise, it should be relatively calm. As things stand, no rain is forecasted during the game, and temperatures in the mid-50s should negate any major wind impact.
However, it’s worth noting that this game currently falls in a pocket between two forecasted rain showers, so that could change. This is one to watch the forecast on because if rain starts to fall at the volume forecasted before and after the game, then you could be looking at a 10-15% downgrade in fantasy output.
Historical comparisons tell us that fantasy output could decrease by around 5%, with gusts adding just a little more risk. Overall, the concerns for fantasy options in this game should be low.
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants Weather
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-30s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 5-6 mph northeasterly
The game in MetLife Stadium looks set to be the coldest of the week, but conditions are generally pretty calm. If the forecasted current conditions come to fruition, then our historical data tells us there will be around a 5% decrease in fantasy impact.
The complicating factor could be some rainfall. As things are forecasted right now, that’s not expected to hit MetLife until a few hours after the game, but that could change. This is another game to keep an eye on because significant rain is forecasted for Sunday night into Monday morning.
Things should not change drastically in this relatively short time frame, but this is a game to keep half an eye on from a weather perspective heading into kickoff. If rain starts to fall, a potential 20% decrease in the passing game and a slight boost in the run game could transpire.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Low 40s
- Showers: 10% chance at kickoff increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 3-6 mph easterly
The weather pattern for the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Philadelphia Eagles is very similar to what we discussed with the game at MetLife. The temperatures in Philadelphia are forecasted to be slightly higher, just tipping over the 40 mark at kickoff. However, due to the later kickoff, the risk of rain falling during this game is higher.
Much like with the game in MetLife, the current forecast has the worst of the weather falling later in the day. Yet, this game has a higher chance of being impacted by rain if the weather forecast shifts a little. The current forecast has the fourth quarter seeing rainfall, with the percentage chance going over 25%.
This game has a bit of a red flag around it from a weather perspective. If the rain starts falling earlier than forecasted, we could see a 20% or more decrease in fantasy output. The problem is that you likely need to make some decisions before kickoff, so the forecast for this game is one to watch carefully in the lead-up to each slate of games.
If rain does start to fall, it’s hard to trust any passing-game options implicitly. With the Eagles passing game looking off-kilter in recent weeks, a shift in the forecast could make it tough to start A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, which seems crazy to say in the fantasy playoffs.
If the forecast stays as it currently is, there’s no need to do anything extreme — but this is a game to watch, just in case.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Weather
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-50s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff
- Wind: 12-16 mph northwesterly with gusts up to 25 mph
We’ve seen some really placid conditions in Denver in recent weeks, but that’s set to change in Week 15, with winds up to 25 mph forecasted. The good news is that the temperatures are comfortable, and there is no rain anywhere on the forecast over the next 48 hours.
Historical comparisons tell us that these winds could result in a decreased fantasy output by around 5%, with gusts adding just a little more risk. Overall, the concerns for fantasy options in this game should be low.
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks Weather
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. Sunday
- Expected Temperature: Mid-40s
- Showers: <10% chance at kickoff but increasing throughout the game
- Wind: 3-5 mph variable
Sunday Night Football in Seattle is another game that will be on rain watch throughout the day. Much like in MetLife and Philadelphia, the worst of the weather is forecasted for after the game is over. Therefore, initially, there’s not much of a downgrade here, but this is another game to monitor throughout the day.
If you are in a position where you can wait until closer to Sunday Night Football to make some lineup decisions, then you’re in a good spot if the weather forecast does shift forward a few hours in Seattle. If you have to make decisions prior to the 1 p.m. kickoffs, this current forecast would suggest that you do nothing different as things stand.
Games Played in Stadiums With a Retractable Roof
- Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints | Sunday, 1 p.m.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals | Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
- Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings | Monday, 8 p.m.
- Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders | Monday, 8:30 p.m.
