Entering Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season, the New Orleans Saints had lost seven consecutive games and recently fired head coach Dennis Allen. It looked like the Saints’ playoff hopes were dead.
Can the Saints do the unthinkable and sneak into the playoffs by capturing the NFC Division Crown? Their chances took a pretty big hit with their Week 15 loss against the Washington Commanders, but there is a tiny bit of hope that they can win the division.
New Orleans Saints Playoff Scenarios | Week 15 Update
NFC Scores in Week 15 Relevant to Playoff Race
- Rams defeated 49ers, 12-6
- Commanders defeated Saints, 20-19
- Cowboys defeated Panthers, 30-14
- Buccaneers defeated Chargers, 40-17
- Cardinals defeated Patriots, 30-17
- Bills defeated Lions, 48-42
- Eagles defeated Steelers, 27-13
- Packers defeated Seahawks, 30-13
- Vikings defeated Bears, 30-12
- Falcons defeated Raiders, 15-9
After the Saints’ loss to the Commanders, the Saints now have a 0.9% chance of making the playoffs. In fact, they have no chance of being a Wild Card team. Ironically enough, their only chance would be to win the division, which they only have a 0.7% chance of doing just that.
How can they do this? First, they need to win their remaining three games, and the Buccaneers would need to lose their next three games to avoid any tiebreakers. The Falcons, who are 7-7, would also need to lose at least three games.
Tying with the Falcons won’t be enough, as the teams split the season series, and Atlanta has a better division record than New Orleans. So, if the Bucs choke down the stretch and the division comes down to the Saints and Falcons, New Orleans would need to finish one game ahead of Atlanta to take the NFC South crown.
The Buccaneers can avoid any kind of this talk, though, because they control their own destiny. If they win out, then they will secure the division title.
But if they don’t? New Orleans plays Tampa Bay in Week 18. If the Bucs lose to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 16, the Carolina Panthers in Week 17, and lose to the Saints to end their season — and the Falcons drop two games — New Orleans can win the division (since the Saints would tie the Bucs and own the tiebreaker due to their better division record).
Unfortunately for the Saints, they have the toughest remaining schedule of the three NFC South teams. Atlanta has the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule (vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers), while Tampa Bay has the fifth-easiest schedule in the league ( at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints). Meanwhile, New Orleans has the 16th-hardest remaining schedule (at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers).
Not to mention, New Orleans has had horrible injury luck as of late, losing key pieces like Derek Carr, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill.
Could interim HC Darren Rizzi’s decision to go for two to win the game against the Commanders instead of forcing it to overtime come back to haunt him? Time will tell.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, where you can choose who will win the remaining NFL games to see your ideal playoff picture and how it differs from the current NFL playoff bracket.
