The Buffalo Bills will face the Detroit Lions in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills and Lions skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Jared Goff, QB | DET
Jared Goff threw “a” bad pass on Thursday night, and it was intercepted, but he was predictably efficient again (78.1% complete) in leading the offense that sits at the top of our Offensive+ power rankings.
This is as positive of a scoring environment as there is in the NFL today, which means that starting any Lions player any week is reasonable, if not suggested.
The Bills’ defense is good, there’s no denying that. Some would argue “great,” and I’d listen. But good offense beats good defense in the year 2024, and with two damning boxes checked, I’m not hesitating to play Goff this week with extended rest.
First is the obvious. This game will take place in the great state of Detroit, and that alone demands our attention. Since 2021, Goff has owned the top home-game passer rating (106.9 over the 32-game sample) in the sport, fueled by a 6.4% touchdown rate.
During his nearly four-year stint as the Lions’ shot-caller, Goff has cleared 26 fantasy points on eight occasions:
- Week 11, 2024 vs. Jaguars: 34.6 fantasy points
- Week 4, 2022 vs. Seahawks: 33.2
- Week 15, 2023 vs. Broncos: 31.1
- Week 1, 2021 vs. 49ers: 28.9
- Week 5, 2023 vs. Panthers: 27.4
- Week 4, 2024 vs. Seahawks: 26.2
- Week 14, 2022 vs. Vikings: 26.1
- Week 2, 2022 vs. Commanders: 26
Notice anything? Yep, each one of them came in front of the Detroit faithful. Each of those games also saw at least 57 total points scored — a home game where the offense is pushed to the core. Could that be the case in this spot?
The second is how the Bills play. They refuse to bring heat, instead banking on their talented secondary to hold up in coverage. For the most part, that strategy has held up this season. However, I think, after 14 weeks, we’ve established that the Lions aren’t like “most” matchups.
Goff’s passer rating when not blitzed:
- 2019 (Rams): 86.5
- 2020 (Rams): 86.6
- 2021 (Lions): 87.3
- 2022 (Lions): 95.7
- 2023 (Lions): 97.0
- 2024 (Lions): 101.8
Whether you think that is a Goff stat or is more reflective of the talent around him, I really don’t care. The fact of the matter is that when he’s comfortable, he’s dicing up opponents. And with Josh Allen likely to apply game pressure the way the Packers did on Thursday night, it’s not hard to rank Goff among the best pocket passers for the week.
Maybe the best among them?
Josh Allen, QB | BUF
Josh Allen stamped his MVP ticket last week with the historic six-touchdown performance, and now he gets a chance to solidify the Bills as legitimate Super Bowl threats.
In our game, Allen is exactly as good as you think he is. Last week was his second finish this season as the top-scoring QB of the week, his fifth top-five finish, and eighth in the top 10.
The Bills have asked Allen to quicken his decision-making (65.4% fast pass rate, easily a career high), and it’s opened up more avenues to production.
Like with Hurts, you could easily argue that there is room to grow. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman have both been on the shelf recently and will offer a depth in support that he’s thriving without.
David Montgomery, RB | DET
David Montgomery has seen his yards per carry decrease in three straight games, but with three catches in four straight and a TD in 10 of 13, this profile is as rock solid as any Tier 3 running back in the game.
Montgomery is unlikely to break any given slate, but you’re rarely going to lose ground in playing him. Buffalo can be had on the ground, and while the Lions are capable of lighting up the scoreboard though the air, I’m expecting Montgomery to be the focal point of Detroit’s early-game offense.
The Bills’ defense is solid, but the Lions’ offense is elite — if you have a Detroit player, you’re starting him every week. Easy game.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | DET
There’s nothing to say here when it comes to Jahmyr Gibbs and this Detroit powerhouse backfield. The second-year back has 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in eight straight games, and that’s with David Montgomery playing at a high level.
The touch count is never going to be elite, but with Detroit’s offense consistently in scoring position, it doesn’t matter. The Bills have, for the most part, encouraged their opponents to try to kill them with papercuts — the Lions would be happy to do so by giving their running backs 15+ touches apiece.
James Cook, RB | BUF
James Cook was left out of the fun last week (eight touches for 29 yards), but I feel good about labeling a game that featured 86 points and a break-neck pace as rare.
This isn’t a good spot for Cook, that much we know. The Lions are the top run defense in terms of success rate by a wide margin, and both of these offenses operate at a bottom-seven pace, leaving us open to a possession count on the low side.
Even with those negative factors working against Buffalo’s RB1, I think you’re playing him. Cook has 11 rushing scores this season and has been good for multiple receptions more often than not. Ray Davis hasn’t eaten his role as a featured back, and with Josh Allen constantly putting this team in a position to score, Cook is a must-play every week.
Ray Davis, RB | BUF
Ray Davis didn’t get a single touch in the Josh Allen superhero game last week, and that tracks. He’s a change-of-pace back to James Cook, but if this offense is going to ask Allen to wear the cape, there’s really no reason to involve the rookie RB2.
At this time of year, I value volume on these bad offenses above efficiency, something that makes Pollard a viable starter in all formats for me. The fact that the Bengals rank third-worst in defensive success rate against the run is a bonus and has him flirting with my top 10 this week alongside names like Alvin Kamara and James Cook.
Amari Cooper, WR | BUF
In his first four games with Buffalo, Amari Cooper saw 13 targets on 73 routes. In the Week 14 loss to the Rams, the veteran receiver saw 14 passes thrown his way on 26 routes.
Was this a matchup thing or the start of a beautiful connection with Josh Allen? Only time will tell on that front — it’s worth noting that Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman were both inactive, not to mention a game script that demanded aggression.
Not all of those things are going to align weekly, but they could be in play this week to some degree. The Lions are a good bet to push the Bills, and while one or both of his teammates could be back in the mix, their extended absences have me pessimistic that they will return at full strength this weekend.
The Lions are the best red-zone pass defense in the league; that caps the upside case for a receiver who plays on an offense that wants to rush the ball into the end zone as it is, but I think the plus volume sticks. That’s enough to Flex him with a decent level of confidence.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone three straight games without a score, and this is coming on the heels of a franchise-record eight-in-a-row stretch with a TD.
I’m not the least bit worried, and a matchup with a defense that allows the fourth-highest red-zone completion percentage (65.1%) could easily see this streak coming to an end. The Bills make their bones on the defensive end by taking away your chunk plays on the perimeter — the Lions are the type of versatile offense that is happy to take its medicine.
Could this be St. Brown’s third double-digit reception game of the season?
Jameson Williams, WR | DET
For the first time in his short career, Jameson Williams has hauled in five passes in three straight games.
I’ve heard plenty of complaints over the past few weeks from those who roster JaMo, and I get it. You’d assume that a run like that would net more than 34.4 PPR points. That said, did you draft Williams for the talent with hope for volume or the other way around?
Exactly. Your bet from the jump was on raw talent and the hope that he could develop as a target earner in his third season. If I told you back in September that the looks wouldn’t be an issue entering the fantasy playoffs, you would have asked me where to sign.
All of that said, this is a tough spot. Whether it’s completion percentage, TD rate, or passer rating, Buffalo is one of the best units in the NFL at taking away the deep ball. And while there has been development, that is still Williams’ calling card in our game.
Both the Bears and 49ers rank in the bottom third in yards per deep completion, so I think there will be an opportunity to unleash Williams’ upside in your hopeful run to glory. Still, I think patience is the play this week.
Keon Coleman, WR | BUF
Keon Coleman has now missed four straight games with a wrist injury, and his status for Week 15 remains up in the air, though there has been more early optimism this week than in the past few.
I’m not sure it matters.
He’s earned a target on just 16.4% of his routes this season, and that doesn’t include many reps with Amari Cooper. This time last week, I was bullish on the idea of stashing Coleman with the thought being that the Bills would move heaven and earth to pass the Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
After a loss to the Rams last week on top of another heart-stopping Chiefs win, those dreams are all but dashed, and now I think a cautious approach is more likely than not.
I don’t see a realistic path to Coleman working his way into the top 35 of my receiver rankings at any point over the final month of the season. With that being the case, I believe you can move on should you need immediate help — Coleman, at best, is a long-term play with limited role upside.
Khalil Shakir, WR | BUF
I like to think that if I was athletically gifted, Khalil Shakir would be my spirit animal. Remove that pesky ability to excel physically, and we are basically identical.
- Listed at 6’ tall
- K.S. initials
- Aquarius Zodiac Sign
- Significant time spent in Upstate NY
See what I mean?
I’ve been ultra proud of my clone lately. Only Malik Nabers (11) has a longer active streak of 7+ target games than Shakir (seven), and with a red-zone touch in five of his past seven games, he’s benefiting from the overall consistency of Buffalo’s offense.
We saw a little bit of everything from Shakir last week in the loss to the Rams. The 51-yard catch, run, and shrug-off-tackles touchdown was impressive and on brand. I was even more encouraged by a 31-yard bomb that nearly got him a second score.
If Shakir’s route tree is expanding, get used to seeing this name ranked as a top-20 PPR receiver. This profile isn’t super exciting in terms of highlight plays, but I find winning fantasy matchups exciting, and my guy K.S. helps you do that consistently.
Dalton Kincaid, TE | BUF
Dalton Kincaid has now missed three consecutive games due to a knee injury, and while I typically project a return to action before a fourth missed game in instances like this (if he was going to miss four games, the Bills could have opened up a roster spot by placing him on IR a month ago), I’m not sure we get that this week.
The Bills are still technically alive for the top seed in the AFC, but that seems like a fleeting dream after they gave up a game in the standings last week. Barring a dramatic shift in reporting, I’m not banking on having Kincaid as a full-go this week. And for a player who is more than 300 days separated from his last game with 55 receiving yards, can you really justify playing a compromised version of him with your season on the line?
Dawson Knox, TE | BUF
Dawson Knox has assumed the Dalton Kincaid role, posting a snap share north of 81% in two of the starter’s three DNPs. From a spreadsheet-only point of view, the case for streaming a player like this is reasonably straightforward — he’s tethered to Josh Allen in an offense without much in the way of alpha target earners.
Of course, our game is played on the field and that is where this profile loses some traction. Last week, in a shootout that was played without Keon Coleman (wrist) and with QB1 wearing the Superman cape, Knox’s 29 routes resulted in one very forced target. His only look against the Rams was a screen pass that came two yards behind the line of scrimmage, not exactly a showcase of him being able to win a route.
If Kincaid returns this week, I don’t think you’re playing either Buffalo tight end; and if Kincaid doesn’t return this week, I don’t think you’re playing either Buffalo tight end. The Lions own a top-five defense in terms of YAC yards allowed and opponent completion percentage — the idea of Knox is far more appealing than the realistic application of him.
Sam LaPorta, TE | DET
To call this season a grind for Sam LaPorta managers would be an understatement. We are talking about a player who we thought might be the future of the position and has just one finish better than TE8 this season.
That said, if you’ve survived up to this point, I think you’re set to be rewarded. LaPorta has earned at least six targets in four straight and four of his looks over that stretch have come with his feet planted in the end zone. Efficiency hasn’t been the issue (9% more PPR points per target this year than last) and I can’t imagine volume is a concern as the Lions, a team who peaks at home, gets to attack a Bills defense that allowed Matthew Stafford to complete 23-of-30 passes for 320 yards and two touchdowns last week.
I think you can feel safe about starting LaPorta in all formats this week and having him finally live up to something close to the value we assigned him during draft season.