The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 15. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Buccaneers and Chargers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 15 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Baker Mayfield, QB | TB
Baker Mayfield has a little Jameis Winston in his profile, and that makes him difficult to evaluate. On one hand, he completed eight of nine passes to six different players through the first two drives on Sunday against the Raiders. On the other, he was five-of-10 for the rest of the half with two of those five incompletions being intercepted.
For me, trying to nail down players like this is maddening. Yes, that’s what I get paid to do, but randomness comes into play for profiles like this more than most. What changed in that Vegas matchup after the first 10 minutes?
Not the weather. Not the quality of defense. Not the support of his offense. Literally nothing changed, and yet, his production fluctuated crazily.
That said, I tend to rank Mayfield based on the opponent. The Chargers are easily the least stingiest defense on short passes (4.7 yards per attempt, nearly a full yard below league average) and that puts us in a tough spot when you consider that, after throwing six deep touchdown passes in seven games to open the season, Mayfield has just one in six games since.
With both of these teams ranking at bottom-eight in pace, I don’t trust the quality or quantity in this spot. Rookies like Bo Nix and Drake Maye grade more favorably this week as do a trio of NFC North QBs that have battled fantasy inconsistencies of their own (Sam Darnold, Jordan Love, and Jared Goff).
Justin Herbert, QB | LAC
Justin Herbert has dropped back on 121 third downs — none of his 104 passes on those plays have been intercepted (eight touchdowns). This highlights, to me, how valuable he is for the Chargers, even if his fantasy numbers aren’t jumping off the screen.
With Los Angeles overachieving based on expectations, you’d assume that their shot caller has more than five top-15 finishes and better than a QB7 peak.
Josh Allen and Joe Burrow need to put up elite fantasy numbers for their teams to succeed — that’s simply not true for Herbert, and I don’t see that changing over the final month.
Bucky Irving, RB | TB
Bucky Irving is projecting as active this week and while I love the idea of getting to bet on the superior talent in Tampa Bay, there’s no denying the risk.
This is a tough matchup and Rachaad White has run well of late. Irving was featured heavily in the win over the Carolina Panthers, but prior to that, their most recent competitive game saw Irving and White split 32 touches down the middle.
I think that’s closer to what we can expect today and that lands them both in the Flex tier of my ranks — if I was confident either would lead, that player would move up half a dozen spots, but with the information we have, both carry too much role risk to rank that aggressively.
Irving has been ultra-impressive this season, but with plenty of depth behind him, Tampa Bay has the luxury of taking the cautious approach since he isn’t 100%.
Gus Edwards, RB | LAC
Gus Edwards had just 10 carries over the weekend against the Chiefs, but a short TD plunge allowed him to save an otherwise forgettable day (36 rushing yards).
Due to a lack of versatility, there’s simply not many paths for Edwards to return RB2 value outside of multiple short scores. His role is safer than a player like Travis Etienne Jr. or Jaylen Warren, but with those two involved in the pass game, I’d rather Flex them this week and moving forward.
J.K. Dobbins, RB | LAC
J.K. Dobbins’ fantasy season is over as a knee injury has once again landed him on injured reserve. There’s a chance he is a factor in Los Angeles’ playoff games, and maybe that makes him a sleeper in postseason fantasy formats, but as we come down the stretch, there’s no use in holding Dobbins. Take a flier on a handcuff back or a deep shot receiver that you can slide in if need be over Dobbins.
Kimani Vidal, RB | LAC
Kimani Vidal played 52.6% of the snaps on Sunday night, his first game with a snap share over 27%. The field time is good to see, but he still hasn’t recorded more than eight touches in a game this season. That means he can’t be trusted.
Vidal, of course, deserves to be rostered. This is an offense with plenty of potential and plenty of backfield uncertainty. I was encouraged by him running 15 routes against the Chiefs as I believe that is his path to the Flex conversation — Gus Edwards lacks versatility, and we know Jim Harbaugh wants his fate in the hands of Justin Herbert.
Rachaad White, RB | TB
Rachaad White has had an up-and-down season, but with Bucky Irving battling a back injury, he could see his role peak at the perfect time.
White has eight touchdowns over his past seven games, and he’s even showcased some rushing upside in the first two games this month (28 carries for 166 yards, highlighted by a disrespectful stiff arm last week). I’m not sure that level of efficiency on the ground is here to stay, especially against the seventh-best rush defense by success rate, but if the volume looks anything like last week (17 carries), there is RB1 potential here.
Based on early reporting out of Tampa, I’m comfortable in projecting White to lead this backfield in carries, regardless of whether Irving plays or not. It’s not an ideal matchup, but if we are talking 15+ carries alongside his consistent efficiency in the passing game (89.1% catch rate this season), it’ll be close to impossible to justify benching White this week with your season on the line.
Jalen McMillan, WR | TB
Jalen McMillan was one of the breakout stories of Week 14, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the 28-13 win over the Raiders. The 21.9 PPR fantasy points were great to see, but with just 11.7 expected points to show for that role, I worry about the sustainability.
Through 13 weeks, the rookie was producing 26.7% below expectations, further increasing my concerns that last week was anything other than a flash in the pan. If you trust 2+ months of data over a strong four quarters, you’d have expected McMillan to score 8.6 points last week; if that was the case, would we be having this discussion?
He has a 50% catch rate for the season — with just 119 air yards over his past three games, there’s not enough upside in this profile for me to Flex him.
Joshua Palmer, WR | LAC
This time of year, I get a lot of “I need upside, don’t care about downside … who can I plug-and-play” sort of questions. I get it and I love it. The ability to be real with your expectations of your team is critical when it comes to succeeding at a high level in this game of ours.
I also love these questions because you’re taking all of the faults of a downside out of my hands and allowing me to only look like the hero. By framing the question like that, you’re expecting disaster and looking for me to swoop in.
The answer this week is going to be Joshua Palmer.
He’s been on the field for over 74% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps in three of his past four games, and his vertical role opens up the door to a WR2 finish. This season, Tampa Bay has a below-average defense when defending deep passes in terms of passer rating, touchdown rate, and interception percentage.
Air yards leaders, Week 14:
- Amari Cooper: 247 yards
- DeAndre Hopkins: 180 yards
- Jordan Addison: 168 yards
- Ja’Marr Chase: 151 yards
- Malik Nabers: 140 yards
- Tyreek Hill: 139 yards
- Palmer: 134 yards
My guess is that you didn’t wake up today and expect to see Palmer’s name on a list like that. There is an obvious risk that comes with this profile (one touchdown catch over the past 365 days), but if you’re throwing caution to the wind, Palmer’s Week 14 best-case scenario ranks among the top 25 at the position.
Let’s see if we can get you a win as a significant underdog!
Ladd McConkey, WR | LAC
Ladd McConkey finally sat out last week. The rookie has been battling through a shoulder injury for a month now, and a knee injury late in Week 13 is ultimately what resulted in last week’s DNP.
McConkey was a true game-time decision, which has me putting him on the positive side of questionable as we turn the page to Week 14. The Bolts have lost two of three games after their 7-3 start, but their standing as a Wild Card team isn’t in much danger, so you’ll need to monitor this situation.
There is the possibility that LA rests its clear-cut top offensive playmaker. But if McConkey plays, you play him. He’s proven the ability to win routes in a hurry, and that is the type of skill set that can beat a Bucs defense that creates pressure at the fourth-highest rate when blitzing.
Case in point: Tampa Bay allows the second-most yards per slot target. McConkey is a must-start option at this point in the season and could be the top fantasy WR from the 2024 draft class in 2025 redrafts.
Mike Evans, WR | TB
Mike Evans has four top-10 finishes this season (three of which came in the first five weeks). Those games are fun when they land, but with those being his only top-25’s of the season, this isn’t the résumé of an elite fantasy asset.
In this era without Chris Godwin, I would have never guessed that a 17.9% target share in a positive matchup was possible for Evans, though that is what we got against the Raiders on Sunday. The touchdown equity remains intact with his highest red-zone target rate since 2019. That is why you can continue to play Evans with confidence, even if the range of outcomes on a weekly basis is far greater than what you expected on draft day.
Evans needs to average 102.5 receiving yards the rest of the way to extend his record 1,000-yard streak, and we’ve seen this team go out of their way to get him to that number — you’re playing him. While this matchup appears stiff on paper, we are talking about the second-most vulnerable downfield defense in terms of touchdown rate.
Quentin Johnston, WR | LAC
Quentin Johnston has scored seven times in his past 10 games. That’s great, but it’s dangerous to bank on.
Johnston is averaging 26.4 receiving yards over his past five games and has hauled in just 7 of 22 targets (31.8%) over his past 14 quarters. The inefficiencies are partly on him, partly on Justin Herbert, and partly on a 13.6-yard aDOT. Who gets the biggest piece of blame pie can be debated, but with none of them likely to change in the short term, it doesn’t matter for our purposes.
Ladd McConkey sat last week, and Johnston’s role didn’t expand in a significant way. He wasn’t trusted with the slot role at all, and his route diet was within the acceptable range of outcomes for a normal week.
The Buccaneers are a top-10 defense when it comes to slowing deep passes in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. There’s a time and place to roll the dice on Johnston, but this is neither.
Cade Otton, TE | TB
I’m going to keep saying it: Cade Otton isn’t a reliable fantasy option when Mike Evans is on the field. It’s really that simple.
With Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 14.7% on-field target share
- 21.6% red-zone target rate
- 4.3 aDOT
Without Mike Evans on the field, 2024:
- 21.1% on-field target share
- 30% red-zone target rate
- 6.9 aDOT
Otton had a chunk play over the weekend (44 yards), and that’s great, but he did little to change my stance — he’s not someone I’m banking on as long as this offense is reasonably healthy. The Chargers have allowed a league-low 4.6 yards per catch after the reception this season; Tampa Bay’s tight end doesn’t grace my top 15 this week.
Will Dissly, TE | LAC
Will Dissly was shut out in Week 13 against the Falcons and left late in the first half over the weekend with a shoulder injury, leaving fantasy managers with very little to show for investing in him after a strong usage month.
I’m fine with moving on. The idea of betting on a good quarterback with an uncertain target hierarchy was sound, but nothing in this profile is impressive enough to overlook the current health concerns.
