It’s Week 15, and for the majority of fantasy football leagues, it means it’s playoff time. For others, it’s the last week before the playoffs begin.
Whichever kind of league you’re in, there are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant running back in every game this weekend.
If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 15 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Aaron Jones | MIN (vs. CHI)
Aaron Jones has produced over expectations in consecutive games after going through five straight underachieving performances. Behind the impressive season from Sam Darnold, this Vikings offense ranks third in pass rate over expectations, and Jones has been able to pay that off with an 86% catch rate.
We already have proof of production against the Bears (25 touches for 129 yards and a score in Week 12), and I’m inclined to think we see more of the same this week. This offense hasn’t been shy about loading up their bell cow with work (five games with 20 touches and six games with four targets), and that is the driving force behind ranking him as a strong RB2 in this spot as a sizable favorite.
The fumble issues are not to be ignored (four fumbles in the three games before a strong showing last week against the Falcons), but as long as he can hold onto the rock, he’s a solid bet.
Alexander Mattison | LV (vs. ATL)
Alexander Mattison continues to nurse an ankle injury, and with just a 3.3 yards-per-carry average this season, there’s no need to hold out hope. The emergence of Sincere McCormick and the general ineptitude of this offense leaves next to no projectable projection available for Mattison, even if he were to be deemed fully healthy.
Alvin Kamara | NO (vs. WAS)
Kendre Miller cashed in an eight-yard touchdown last week after Alvin Kamara put this offense in a position to score; while that was annoying, I don’t think there’s much to read into.
Kamara has at least 16 carries and four catches in five straight games. The efficiency has been predictably underwhelming, and he hasn’t scored since mid-October, but he continues to volume his way to viability.
Life would be simpler if Derek Car was still under center, but I don’t think the overall structure of this offense is set to change in a major way, if for no other reason than they don’t have many other options. If their ranking of sixth in pass rate over expectation regresses, Kamara’s value declines but not enough for an actionable change on your end.
Kamara has played a big part in getting your team to this point, and I think you’re riding it out with him against the sixth-worst run defense in terms of success rate.
Ameer Abdullah | LV (vs. ATL)
Ameer Abdullah carried the ball just one time in the Week 14 loss to the Bucs, putting his value squarely on his ability to earn targets in a spotty passing offense. We saw Abdullah catch five passes three weeks ago against the Broncos, and there’s the opportunity for that to happen again, especially if the Raiders fall behind, but this profile is far too thin to count on in most leagues.
If you don’t have Brock Bowers, you’re best off not playing a Raider. That’s true for this week, next week, and until otherwise noted.
Audric Estimé | DEN (vs. IND)
We thought maybe that Audric Estimé was the lead back in Denver after he recorded 14 carries in the heartbreaking loss to the Chiefs in Week 10, but he has just 12 carries (15 touches) in the three games since.
There will be a fun conversation to be had this summer when it comes to which young Broncos running back we want to fall in love with, as Javonte Williams will be an unrestricted free agent once this season wraps up. But until then, there’s no realistic path to trusting any RB on Denver’s roster during your fantasy playoffs.
Austin Ekeler | WAS (at NO)
Austin Ekeler was placed on injured reserve ahead of Week 13 (concussion), a designation that requires a four-game (not week) absence. The veteran is ineligible to return until the season finale with the Cowboys, meaning he won’t be of any help in most situations.
If you have a strong team and play in a standard ESPN league that extends through Week 18, you can stash Ekeler on your IR. But even in a situation like that, it’s going to be difficult to project him for double-digit touches should he return when first eligible.
Bijan Robinson | ATL (at LV)
Even with the offense collapsing around him, Bijan Robinson has reached 20 toques in six of his past seven games and has scored four times over the past month. Last week, in what was eventually a 42-21 loss in Minnesota, the Falcons made it clear how they planned on competing — Robinson had six touches on the opening drive.
The Saints own the second-worst run defense in the NFL this season, and with Atlanta ranking seventh in rush rate over expectation, this could be an explosion spot for the former eighth overall pick.
We haven’t seen an explosive touch from Robinson in three straight games — I think there’s a good chance that changes on Sunday in the midst of a top-five performance.
Blake Corum | LAR (at SF)
Blake Corum continues to get drives to work, but not enough to work into the Flex conversation. He’s on this roster to keep Kyren Williams fresh, not to replace him — and that makes him nothing more than a glorified handcuff at this point.
I have zero interest in forcing Corum’s 7-10 touches into my lineup, but I’d be fully invested in him if Williams were to get injured, something that is possible after a high usage week and now a short work week.
Braelon Allen | NYJ (at JAX)
Braelon Allen was hyped up once we got news that Breece Hall was going to sit last week in Miami, and he was fine (15 touches for 81 yards), but he didn’t assume the bell-cow role we were hoping for.
In fact, Isaiah Davis actually had more carries through New York’s first two drives. That’s not to say that this is a committee situation should Hall sit again, but I’d be careful in pushing Allen into the top 20, even in a plus-matchup.
That said, I’d still start Allen as a Flex option in my situation. The Jags allow the ninth-most yards per carry before contact this season, and if this explosive rookie can get out in space, a triple-digit afternoon in terms of scrimmage yards is very possible.
Breece Hall | NYJ (at JAX)
Breece Hall was forced to miss last week with a knee injury that has been nagging at him for a while. In his stead, New York’s running backs carried 21 times for 83 yards.
Hall was a star in the early going this season, but with just one top-15 finish since Week 8, a compromised version of him is a scary thought. Reports surfaced last last week that the eliminated Jets had no plans of shutting down their starting RB, and while we have no choice but to take them at their word in that regard, the fact that they felt the need to say that has me thinking that we could be looking at a multi-week absence.
If Hall finds a way onto the field this weekend, we can circle back to this, but as things stand right now, I’m not counting on having him at my disposal.
Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS (at NO)
Brian Robinson Jr. has eight top-25 finishes this season, and while that might not read as a game-breaking profile, it’s also one that will rarely put you behind the eight-ball. And this time of year, I’m willing to buy stability like that against a Saints defense that has underachieved for much of the past two months.
I’m aware that Robinson hasn’t had a multi-catch game since September and that there are limitations in this profile. But I’d argue that the hard-nosed running in Washington’s offense, given the versatility of a seemingly healthy Jayden Daniels, creates a floor that is more appealing than the capped ceiling is discouraging.
Here’s a list of running backs who have been atop their team’s depth chart all year and are averaging both 3.3 yards per carry after contact while posting a 35% score or better in our custom elusive rating:
- Derrick Henry
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- James Conner
- Saquon Barkley
- Brian Robinson Jr.
With Ekeler out for the remainder of the fantasy season, Robinson is going to be an RB2 at the very least every week moving forward. As for Sunday, I think he has a real chance to finish inside the top 15 at the position.
Bucky Irving | TB (at LAC)
Bucky Irving is projecting as active this week and while I love the idea of getting to bet on the superior talent in Tampa Bay, there’s no denying the risk.
This is a tough matchup and Rachaad White has run well of late. Irving was featured heavily in the win over the Carolina Panthers, but prior to that, their most recent competitive game saw Irving and White split 32 touches down the middle.
I think that’s closer to what we can expect today and that lands them both in the Flex tier of my ranks — if I was confident either would lead, that player would move up half a dozen spots, but with the information we have, both carry too much role risk to rank that aggressively.
Irving has been ultra-impressive this season, but with plenty of depth behind him, Tampa Bay has the luxury of taking the cautious approach since he isn’t 100%.
Cam Akers | MIN (vs. CHI)
Cam Akers remains the definitive handcuff to Aaron Jones and nothing more. He’ll slide into the back end of my RB2 rankings should Jones end up missing time for any reason, but he’ll remain comfortably outside of my top 30 any week that’s not the case — and that’s where we stand right now.
Chase Brown | CIN (at TEN)
Chase Brown is the first player with 12+ carries AND 30+ receiving yards in five straight games since Saquon Barkley did it in 2018 for the Giants. Take it a step further and extend his numbers from that stretch, and we’re looking at 1,278 rushing yards and 95 catches.
Two players in the history of this great game have produced that stat line in a single season: LaDainian Tomlinson (2003) and Christian McCaffrey (2019).
Joe Burrow gets all of the attention, but Brown’s versatility and volume might be more valuable in fantasy circles, given the price paid on draft day. The Bengals aren’t likely to impact the NFL postseason, but I very much expect them to be involved with how fantasy leagues finish.
Chuba Hubbard | CAR (vs. DAL)
Jonathon Brooks is done for the season with another ACL tear, leaving Chuba Hubbard in position to finish a great statistical season, even if there haven’t been many team wins.
He has seven RB1 finishes under his belt this year, and with game script not likely to be a major concern (Carolina is favored!), there’s no reason to shy away from the one piece on the Panthers’ offense with a consistent role.
Hubbard has authored his first 1,000-yard season of his career, and there is still production to be had down the stretch. He touched the ball 30 times in a losing effort last week — he should clear 20 with ease in this spot, which lands him as a strong RB2 for me this weekend.
D’Andre Swift | CHI (at MIN)
D’Andre Swift is trending in the wrong direction with three straight finishes outside of the top 20 at the position, and I worry that doesn’t change this week with a matchup against the fifth-best run defense.
Roschon Johnson’s status (concussion) could prove to be awfully impactful here. Swift’s rushing value is moving in the wrong direction (four straight sub-15 carry games, three straight with under 40 rushing yards), and if he doesn’t have access to the work inside the 5-yard line, we’re talking about an awfully thin profile.
Pace of play often gets overlooked, but you’re a PFN follower, so that’s not the case for you. You’re aware that the Vikings operate at the fourth-slowest pace and that such a style of play carries with it possession downside.
Swift is a Flex play this week but not a must-start if you have nice receiver depth.
David Montgomery | DET (vs. BUF)
David Montgomery has seen his yards per carry decrease in three straight games, but with three catches in four straight and a TD in 10 of 13, this profile is as rock solid as any Tier 3 running back in the game.
Montgomery is unlikely to break any given slate, but you’re rarely going to lose ground in playing him. Buffalo can be had on the ground, and while the Lions are capable of lighting up the scoreboard though the air, I’m expecting Montgomery to be the focal point of Detroit’s early-game offense.
The Bills’ defense is solid, but the Lions’ offense is elite — if you have a Detroit player, you’re starting him every week. Easy game.
Derrick Henry | BAL (at NYG)
Derrick Henry hasn’t finished worse than RB18 in 10 of his past 12 games. The “game script” concerns have always followed The King around, but at this point, that’s kind of like a bald person fearing lice.
The ceiling is elite, and there’s no reason to think he can’t flirt with that as a two-touchdown favorite. Henry already has four top-five finishes on his 2024 résumé, a number I like to extend to five by the time Week 15 ends.
Devin Singletary | NYG (vs. BAL)
I think we are done with Devin Singletary at this point.
This is a profile that includes seven straight single-digit carry games, and with a total of four targets over his past five games, there’s just no path to viable production as long as Tyrone Tracy Jr. is active.
Yes, in theory, Singletary is a single injury away from a lead role, but this isn’t an offense I’m tying up roster spots with unless they are actively producing. I wouldn’t hesitate to move on from the veteran back in favor of a receiver with home-run ability or a Cam Akers type who fills a similar role as a part of a better offense.
De’Von Achane | MIA (at HOU)
This run with Tua Tagovailoa under center has resulted in De’Von Achane’s name being mentioned in the first half of Round 1 when it comes to projecting 2025 redraft results.
Achane’s mix of versatility and explosion is not only rare, but a perfect fit for this offense. On Sunday, he had six touches on Miami’s first eight plays on his way to a fourth straight top-15 finish at the position. He’s successfully graduated from very good player to matchup-proof asset, which is why I’m not sweating him facing the NFL’s fourth-best run defense.
I’ve bet this game to be the highest scoring on the Sunday slate, and I’m not sure you can get too much exposure to it. Enjoy this Achane run — you’re going to have to pay a premium next season if you want to experience this ride again.
Gus Edwards | LAC (vs. TB)
Gus Edwards had just 10 carries over the weekend against the Chiefs, but a short TD plunge allowed him to save an otherwise forgettable day (36 rushing yards).
Due to a lack of versatility, there’s simply not many paths for Edwards to return RB2 value outside of multiple short scores. His role is safer than a player like Travis Etienne Jr. or Jaylen Warren, but with those two involved in the pass game, I’d rather Flex them this week and moving forward.
Isaiah Davis | NYJ (at JAX)
Isaiah Davis was used next to Braelon Allen last week on the ground, and that means he deserves to be rostered until Breece Hall returns.
The rookie out of South Dakota State has scored in consecutive weeks, and while that isn’t going to sustain, it’s at least interesting that he’s been trusted with valuable touches.
Allen is more of a deep-league stash, but there isn’t much to be gained in starting him this week without much of a defined role in New York’s inconsistent offense.
Isiah Pacheco | KC (at CLE)
Isiah Pacheco received 70% of the running back carries for the Chiefs last week in the win over the Chargers, a role that will land him as a top-15 play for me moving forward.
This Kansas City offense ranks 25th in red-zone efficiency this season (51%), checking in behind the New York Jets and Arizona Cardinals. They need the angry running stylings of Pacheco, and he seems to be checking all of the health boxes that they are putting in front of him.
This season, the Browns rank third in pace of play on the offensive end, which could result in them giving the ball back to the Chiefs on a regular basis. Pacheco gave us 16 touches last week, and I’m labeling that as something of a floor for this weekend — I think you’re safe in starting him every week moving forward.
Isaac Guerendo | SF (vs. LAR)
On Sunday, Isaac Guerendo became the first player in the NFL this season with a rushing TD and 50 receiving yards in a first quarter — not bad for his first week at the controls of Kyle Shanahan’s backfield.
A foot injury suffered late last week has Guerendo sitting out of practice to open Week 15. Should their third string RB miss time, Patrick Taylor Jr. and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are the next men up. At some point, this running game is likely to struggle, but I need to see it before projecting it.
Guerendo is going to check in as a solid RB2 for me if he plays. Should he sit, Taylor won’t be far behind.
The Rams are the fifth-worst rushing defense by yards allowed per game and third-down conversion rate on the ground. The 49ers should have success when they hand the ball off, it’s just who to determine will get the bulk of those attempts.
Deebo Samuel Sr. is likely to eat into the RB workload, making it possible that he is a cheat code for DFS showdown contests.
Jahmyr Gibbs | DET (vs. BUF)
There’s nothing to say here when it comes to Jahmyr Gibbs and this Detroit powerhouse backfield. The second-year back has 100 scrimmage yards or a touchdown in eight straight games, and that’s with David Montgomery playing at a high level.
The touch count is never going to be elite, but with Detroit’s offense consistently in scoring position, it doesn’t matter. The Bills have, for the most part, encouraged their opponents to try to kill them with papercuts — the Lions would be happy to do so by giving their running backs 15+ touches apiece.
Jaleel McLaughlin | DEN (vs. IND)
Jaleel McLaughlin is a part of this Denver backfield mess, which means you’re stuck in this weird holding pattern where you can’t play or cut any of them.
If I had to pick one to speculate on this week, McLaughlin would be my option. I like what he has shown in space, and with the Colts ranking as the fifth-best defense at creating pressure when blitzing, I could see a few designed screens and dumpoffs result in chunk gains.
You’re holding all exposure to this backfield and simply hoping that someone runs away with the lead role by the end of Week 15.
James Conner | ARI (vs. NE)
James Conner has seen at least three targets in nine straight games and has 17+ carries in five of his past seven, making him the owner of one of the most consistent roles in the sport.
Might the Cardinals finally be operating in a positive game script? If that’s the case, I like Conner’s chances of giving you top-15 production against a below-average defense in all metrics.
Conner has cleared 100 total yards in each of Arizona’s past two wins — I think he makes it three straight on Sunday.
James Cook | BUF (at DET)
James Cook was left out of the fun last week (eight touches for 29 yards), but I feel good about labeling a game that featured 86 points and a break-neck pace as rare.
This isn’t a good spot for Cook, that much we know. The Lions are the top run defense in terms of success rate by a wide margin, and both of these offenses operate at a bottom-seven pace, leaving us open to a possession count on the low side.
Even with those negative factors working against Buffalo’s RB1, I think you’re playing him. Cook has 11 rushing scores this season and has been good for multiple receptions more often than not. Ray Davis hasn’t eaten to his role as a featured back, and with Josh Allen constantly putting this team in position to score, Cook is a must play every week.
Javonte Williams | DEN (vs. IND)
Sean Payton doesn’t want his opponents to know what is coming on the ground, which means us as fantasy managers are fighting an uphill battle. Over the past two games, Javonte Williams has turned 12 carries into — checks notes — -1 rushing yard.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, Williams’ six targets have netted just nine yards. I’m not 100% sure that if we condense all Denver RB production into a single back that it would rank favorably, but with three backs splitting that work, you can’t play any of them with confidence.
Jaylen Warren | PIT (at PHI)
Jaylen Warren is nearing Flex value in PPR formats. He’s not quite there yet, but with at least 9.8 expected points in seven straight games, there’s a reasonable floor to consider in the right situation.
He cracked the 50% snap share threshold on Sunday against the Browns (51.6%); that’s encouraging, even if the numbers weren’t all that impressive. The Eagles are the eighth-best defense at limiting yards per RB target and third-best in terms of passer rating on those attempts. This isn’t the matchup for me to rank Warren as a starter, but we aren’t far from that being the case.
Jaylen Wright | MIA (at HOU)
The Dolphins have gone all in on the De’Von Achane experience, and while that has rendered Jaylen Wright useless, I still think the rookie should remain rostered.
Raheem Mostert isn’t healthy (hip), and that means that the Achane role if vacated for any reason is all Wright’s. There’s no stand-alone value in this profile — he’s strictly a strategic piece to hold at the end of your roster.
Jeremy McNichols | WAS (at NO)
Austin Ekeler is done for the remainder of the fantasy season, and that is why Jeremy McNichols’ name popped onto fantasy radars.
I’m not sure we need to waste time chasing the secondary usage in this backfield. We aren’t going to see this team run the ball 45 times like they did last week with regularity, but even in a high-volume game like that, the usage was all over the place:
- Brian Robinson Jr.: 16 carries (103 yards, TD)
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 13 carries (94 yards, TD)
- Jayden Daniels: nine carries (34 yards, TD)
- McNichols: six carries (32 yards)
- Dyami Brown: one carry (four yards)
Robinson is going to carry the scoring equity in this offense, and while he’s underwhelmed as a pass catcher this season, McNichols has earned just three targets this season.
With a 24.7% snap share last week (season: 21.5%), there’s no reason to consider McNichols a legitimate RB handcuff. You can find more utility on your waiver wire, no matter how deep your league is.
Jerome Ford | CLE (vs. KC)
Jerome Ford out-carried Nick Chubb in the first half last week, and while I’m not comfortable labeling him as the best bet to lead this team in work moving forward, he’s worked into enough of a role to at least be added.
We know there is some versatility in this profile; with Jameis Winston on the short list of players who could lead the league in passing attempts for the rest of the season, a player like Ford could churn out some PPR value.
For now, I’m not considering Ford for my Flex spot in any league type, but the path for that change is clear, and it is why he should be on a roster in your league.
J.K. Dobbins | LAC (vs. TB)
J.K. Dobbins’ fantasy season is over as a knee injury has once again landed him on injured reserve. There’s a chance he is a factor in Los Angeles’ playoff games, and maybe that makes him a sleeper in postseason fantasy formats, but as we come down the stretch, there’s no use in holding Dobbins. Take a flier on a handcuff back or a deep shot receiver that you can slide in if need be over Dobbins.
Joe Mixon | HOU (vs. MIA)
- In Week 13, Joe Mixon ran 20 times.
- In Week 13, Joe Mixon ran for a touchdown.
It’s a simple game. Mixon has done both of those things seven times this season, two more than any other player in the NFL this season and the most in an entire season by a Texan this millennium.
C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins are as capable as any duo of taking over a game and stringing together highlight plays. However, by providing balance and versatility, I don’t think it’s hard to label Mixon as the most valuable member of Houston’s offense.
The man has been a top-eight RB in six of his past eight games and is as good as it gets outside of the two backs battling for Offensive Player of the Year honors.
The age curve is a guide, not a gospel. Mixon is a reminder that the only rule to follow blindly in the world of fantasy sports is that no rule is to be blindly followed.
You’re riding Mixon until the wheels fall off. The next two weeks are brutal matchups, but if you ran scared from prohibitive trends, you’re not enjoying a career season from this 28-year-old.
Jonathan Taylor | IND (at DEN)
If you drafted Jonathan Taylor in the top 20 this summer, odds are good that your team is either struggling or is being carried by a strong supporting cast. The former All-Pro has just one finish better than RB12 this season (Week 3) and has failed to reach per-touch PPR expectations in five straight games (his last game with more than 12 receiving yards came in September).
All of that said, is there any doubt that the Colts commit to a rested version of Taylor coming out of the bye as a reasonable underdog?
Two teams that ranked high in pre-game rush rate over expectation at the time of their meeting with the Broncos saw their running back produce profits for their fantasy managers: J.K. Dobbins totaled 102 yards with a score in Week 6, and Derrick Henry racked up 133 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
I think it’s reasonable to worry about Taylor’s status as an elite back in this Anthony Richardson-led system, but it’s not fair to regress him to the point where he’s not in your lineup. There’s the potential for 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in this spot — if either of those things happens, I think we are just fine.
Jonathon Brooks | CAR (vs. DAL)
Jonathon Brooks’ rookie season was delayed due to recovery from a November torn ACL in his right knee and, less than 13 months later, he’s back in the same position.
This is a brutal blow for a talented kid that we are now going to have to wait longer to see what he can do with a reasonable workload. Given how recoveries work in the NFL these days, it’s reasonable to think that we see him in a Nick Chubb role next season, but that’s not going to make him a rosterable asset in redraft leagues with the well compensated Chuba Hubbard leading the way.
Josh Jacobs | GB (at SEA)
Josh Jacobs checks every box of a league-winning fantasy running back. Every. Single. One.
- Role
- Offensive Trajectory
- Form
- Versatility
- Team Motivation
The Seahawks are the fifth-worst run defense in terms of success rate, giving Jacobs a floor that is close to elite this weekend. He’s coming off of an extended week and that makes him a great bet to extend his run of 18+ carry games to five straight. If good Geno Smith shows up, no worries, Jacobs has four games with at least four receptions this season and can get you home that way.
RB PPR leaders, Weeks 11-14:
- Saquon Barkley: 114.1 (!)
- Josh Jacobs: 98.3
- De’Von Achane: 81.0
There isn’t much competition in the way for work in this offense that ranks behind only the Eagles in rush rate over expectation. We saw Jacobs post a career year in 2022, a season in which he rattled off two three-game runs of 100+ rushing yards.
Could such a streak be in store for the stretch run this year? I’m not saying it’s predictive, but during one of those streaks in ‘22 was the best game of his career (303 yards and two touchdowns) … a win in Seattle.
Interesting.
Justice Hill | BAL (at NYG)
I preached the ignoring of potential game script issues with Lamar Jackson, and I stand by that. But Justice Hill’s stock isn’t nearly as stable.
Hill doesn’t have more than five carries in a game this season (two more targets than rush attempts this year), and that tracks. Why take Derrick Henry off the field in a running situation?
Is there a world in which Hill repeats his season-high seven targets in Week 11 (at Pittsburgh) next week for the rematch and gives you low-end PPR value? We can cross that bridge when we get to it, but for Week 15, you’d be wise to look just about anywhere else for double-digit PPR points.
Hill turned seven touches into 6.1 PPR points before the bye, and that’s about what I’m penciling in this weekend.
Kareem Hunt | KC (at CLE)
It was a nice run. Kareem Hunt filled an important role in the middle of the season, and that was helpful, but you don’t need to hold onto him at this point.
- Week 11 at Buffalo Bills: 69.2% snap share
- Week 12 at Carolina Panthers: 54.4% snap share
- Week 13 vs. Las Vegas Raiders: 40.3% snap share
- Week 14 vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 30.8% snap share
On Sunday night, Patrick Mahomes had more rushing yards than Hunt and Samaje Perine had more targets. There isn’t a role available, and this offense isn’t exactly the juggernaut that we were hoping for.
I’m expecting Isiah Pacheco to only see his role expand the closer we get to the postseason, and any usage added to his profile takes food off Hunt’s plate.
Kenneth Walker III | SEA (vs. GB)
Week 17 Status: OUT
Kenneth Walker III missed last week with an ankle/calf injury and his status for this week is TBD. Zach Chabonnet filled the full version of Walker’s role (29 touches and seven catches on seven targets), and while I don’t think we have a changing of the guard in Seattle should everyone be healthy, the idea of this being a committee and/or hot-hand situation is certainly there.
Walker has had his health issues in the past, and it’s not as if he was overwhelmingly productive before getting banged up (Weeks 8-13: 31.1% below PPR expectations).
Keep an eye on every update coming out of Seattle this week. They are going to want to establish the run to help neutralize Green Bay’s opportunistic secondary, but how they go about that is to be determined. Should we get a clean bill of health for Walker, he’ll be ranked ahead of Charbonnet for me, but the gap won’t be nearly what it was a month ago.
Kimani Vidal | LAC (vs. TB)
Kimani Vidal played 52.6% of the snaps on Sunday night, his first game with a snap share over 27%. The field time is good to see, but he still hasn’t recorded more than eight touches in a game this season. That means he can’t be trusted.
Vidal, of course, deserves to be rostered. This is an offense with plenty of potential and plenty of backfield uncertainty. I was encouraged by him running 15 routes against the Chiefs as I believe that is his path to the Flex conversation — Gus Edwards lacks versatility, and we know Jim Harbaugh wants his fate in the hands of Justin Herbert.
Kyren Williams | LAR (at SF)
Can Kyren Williams assume an elite workload on a short week after handling 31 touches against the Bills on Sunday?
Los Angeles played on a Thursday earlier this season, and they had no hesitation in giving him 28 touches after recording 21 the previous Sunday, so I have no real concerns when it comes to volume.
The 49ers own a bottom-10 rush defense in terms of EPA, success rate, and touchdown percentage, all signs that point to another big Williams game. Puka Nacua’s production explosion stands to potentially take some touchdown equity away from the running game, but it also elevates the drive distance expectation.
This is an offense I want a piece of, and Williams is certainly a big part of the Rams — he’s to be viewed as an RB1 the rest of the way without a second thought.
Najee Harris | PIT (at PHI)
Najee Harris has a rushing TD or 4+ targets in seven of his past eight games, and with the Steelers offense trending in a positive direction, that role is enough to lock him into lineups even with limited efficiency (season: 3.9 yards per carry).
Jaylen Warren is healthy but has yet to eat into Harris’ role in a significant way. Through six Pittsburgh drives last week, Harris had 103.1% of their RB rushing yards.
You read that correctly.
Harris is as good a bet for 15-17 carries and 2-4 targets as there is outside of the top tier at the position, and while the Eagles’ defense is moving in the right direction, Pittsburgh’s offense will be looking to drag out possessions. That puts Harris in a good spot to flirt with 20 touches again on Sunday.
Nick Chubb | CLE (vs. KC)
I can’t imagine feeling good about starting Nick Chubb in any matchup right now; that, by definition, puts him on the chopping block if you’re in desperation mode.
Chubb doesn’t have a 20-yard gain this season and has been benched for extended stretches over the past month. This offense has embraced the chaos that comes with Jameis Winston being under center, and that means a high pass rate over expectation — Chubb has just five catches this season.
The Chiefs are the third-best run defense in the league and are likely to be operating with a lead, thus dragging down Cleveland’s projected rush total even further.
It’s good to see Chubb healthy and on an NFL field, but you’re in trouble if you’re counting on him to contribute to your fantasy squad.
Rachaad White | TB (at LAC)
Rachaad White has had an up-and-down season, but with Bucky Irving battling a back injury, he could see his role peak at the perfect time.
White has eight touchdowns over his past seven games, and he’s even showcased some rushing upside in the first two games this month (28 carries for 166 yards, highlighted by a disrespectful stiff arm last week). I’m not sure that level of efficiency on the ground is here to stay, especially against the seventh-best rush defense by success rate, but if the volume looks anything like last week (17 carries), there is RB1 potential here.
Based on early reporting out of Tampa, I’m comfortable in projecting White to lead this backfield in carries, regardless of whether Irving plays or not. It’s not an ideal matchup, but if we are talking 15+ carries alongside his consistent efficiency in the passing game (89.1% catch rate this season), it’ll be close to impossible to justify benching White this week with your season on the line.
Raheem Mostert | MIA (at HOU)
Raheem Mostert was a DNP last week due to a hip injury and can be left on fantasy waiver wires at this point.
Not only is the veteran back battling a predictable injury, he doesn’t have a role available for him. Jaylen Wright has been more involved lately, and with Tua Tagovailoa finding his form through the air, this is an explosive offense that is likely to continue to prioritize De’Von Achane in a significant way.
Mostert’s 2023 stat line was a thing of beauty, but none of those touchdowns are going to help you down the stretch of this season. I’d rather hold onto a Sean Tucker type to conclude the 2024 season.
Ray Davis | BUF (at DET)
Ray Davis didn’t get a single touch in the Josh Allen superhero game last week, and that tracks. He’s a change-of-pace back to James Cook, but if this offense is going to ask Allen to wear the cape, there’s really no reason to involve the rookie RB2.
At this time of year, I value volume on these bad offenses above efficiency, something that makes Pollard a viable starter in all formats for me. The fact that the Bengals rank third-worst in defensive success rate against the run is a bonus and has him flirting with my top 10 this week alongside names like Alvin Kamara and James Cook.
Rhamondre Stevenson | NE (at ARI)
Rhamondre Stevenson finished three of his first five games this season as an RB1, but he’s been better than the RB18 in just two games since. Those extended struggles include his last four contests, a run of games that has seen him produce 33.7% fewer fantasy points than expected.
The hole in this profile is one that I thought we could look past coming into the season. During this recent four-game dip in value, Stevenson has just 42 receiving yards, a lack of versatility that is concerning when you consider that Drake Maye is going to soak up some of the rushing and scoring equity.
The fact that I don’t trust the Cardinals to pull ahead in a significant way and that they rank as the fourth-worst run defense per success rate has me ranking Stevenson as a viable Flex option.
Is that more of a situational ranking than a talent play? It is, and there’s nothing wrong with that — you need to beg, borrow, and steal to get your fantasy points this time of year.
Rico Dowdle | DAL (at CAR)
Rico Dowdle has run for 100+ yards in consecutive games, making him the first Cowboy to do so since Tony Pollard (Weeks 8-10, 2022). Between those two instances, a non-Cowboys RB registered consecutive 100-yard rushing games 31 times.
This team hasn’t valued the running back position all season long, but they’ve been backed into a corner with Cooper Rush under center, and Dowdle has stepped up in a big way.
The game script is a reasonable concern most weeks but not against the Panthers. Carolina owns the lowest defensive success rate against the run this season; with Dowdle projecting as a top-10 back in terms of touch count this week, he’s a must-start across all formats.
Roschon Johnson | CHI (at MIN)
The process of playing Roschon Johnson at any point is simple: touchdown chasing. Six of his 48 carries this season have resulted in a one-yard score, otherwise offering very little.
Johnson sat out last week with a concussion, and it’s fair to worry about his status as he was unable to practice in any capacity, even with the mini-bye. Generally speaking, I’m in favor of punting on a role like this and chasing a player with a higher touch/target projection.
I’ll move D’Andre Swift up a few spots if Johnson is sidelined again, and that’s why I’m monitoring this situation, not because I have any interest in playing Johnson himself.
Saquon Barkley | PHI (vs. PIT)
Saquon Barkley’s ineptitude from the one-yard line will go down as one of the great mysteries amid a season in which his name has been in the middle of the MVP discussion.
This season, carries from the 1-yard line:
Jalen Hurts: 13
Saquon Barkley: 3This season, failures from the 1-yard line:
Jalen Hurts: 3
Saquon Barkley: 3— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) December 8, 2024
But we are truly nitpicking at this point. Barkley has already set the Eagles’ record for rushing yards in a season and is showing no signs of fatigue (100+ rushing yards in seven of his past eight games with the lone exception being the result of a 28-point blowout over the Cowboys)
The Eagles are hyper-focused on not repeating last season, and that should play into your favor with Barkley’s work unlikely to be capped at any point during the fantasy postseason.
Tank Bigsby | JAX (vs. NYJ)
Tank Bigsby has established himself as the top dog in this offense, and while it’s fair to worry about its overall potency, sheer volume this time of year is valuable in an RB2 sort of way.
Bigsby had an eight-yard touchdown and a fourth-down conversion in the fourth quarter last week against the Titans, solidifying himself as a bell cow that we can trust. At 5.0 yards per carry this season, the second-year back projects as a top-20 play against a defense that ranks in the bottom five in both rush count and rush TD rate through 14 weeks.
For your mental health, I encourage you to remember a very important thing about fantasy: just because you started a player doesn’t mean you have to put yourself through the viewing experience of a Jacksonville game. You can check in occasionally, make sure that Bigsby is getting the touches, and be on your way, but the numbers should be there by the end of 60 minutes.
Tony Pollard | TEN (vs. CIN)
Tony Pollard hasn’t been the picture of efficiency, but he has more 10+ yard rush attempts over the past three weeks than carries that have failed to gain yardage and is averaging over two red-zone touches per game.
Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX (vs. NYJ)
The Jaguars couldn’t run the ball at all last week in Tennessee (26 carries for 71 yards), but it was clear who the team trusted with the result in the balance.
Travis Etienne Jr. was on the field for 48.4% of their offensive snaps last week, a rate that can return value if he was heavily involved, but he’s not. Tank Bigsby out-carried him 18-4 last week; while the preseason starter was able to turn four targets into four catches and 50 yards, he’s profiling as the accent piece these days.
I’m in no hurry to play Jaguars, and that’s especially true for the wrong side of a committee in an offense with an implied total of 18.5 points this week.
Trey Benson | ARI (vs. NE)
Trey Benson was a logical pick-and-stash option all season long, but James Conner has stayed as healthy as ever, and that has left the rookie on the bench.
Benson isn’t close to stand-alone value (under five carries in each game during Arizona’s three-game skid) and doesn’t need to be held if you need value out of every player. That said, if you have a loaded team and/or a bye this week, I’m very interested in adding a handcuff like this as a luxury piece at the end of your roster.
Tyjae Spears | TEN (vs. CIN)
Tyjae Spears touched the ball seven times in the loss to the Jaguars and netted as many yards and Tony Pollard had touches (23).
I continue to think that Spears is an interesting long-term option should he ever be given the lion’s share of a backfield, but with Pollard signed for another two seasons, that time doesn’t appear to be close.
Tyler Allgeier | ATL (at LV)
Tyler Allgeier scored from six yards out on Atlanta’s first drive last week, his first score in a month, and he ran hard against a strong Vikings defense (nine carries for 63 yards).
The performance was good to see and is a reminder that he can be Zach Charbonnet-like should he be given the opportunity, but we aren’t in a position to project that right now with Bijan Robinson at full strength.
His proximity to a top-20 role is why he needs to be rostered, but you’re not playing him as long as the RB1 is at full strength.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG (vs. BAL)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. bailed you out with a late touchdown last week, but all scores matter, and as the lead back in this offense, he put himself in a position to be the beneficiary of that break.
The rookie back has been a viable option in four straight games; while Devin Singletary gets some work, he’s clearly a change-of-pace option more than a realistic threat to Tracy’s value.
The Ravens rank as the second-best run defense in terms of success rate, and that’s a concern, but we have seen Tracy earn 17 targets on 73 routes over his past three games. That gives him an alternate path to top-20 production that I feel good about.
Zach Charbonnet | SEA (vs. GB)
Zach Charbonnet looked great last week against a vulnerable Cardinals defense, racking up 193 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on his 29 touches. This Seattle backfield doesn’t have to be complicated — if Kenneth Walker III is again sidelined, Charbonnet is a fine RB2. If that’s not the case, neither is going to rank as a top-20 running back.
The team has been committed to Walker as its lead back, but after Charbonnet showed well last week, not to mention Walker’s proven fragility, this could well be a 60/40 committee situation when both are active.
You’ll need to keep tabs on this situation, as it is one of the most impactful situations of the week and could easily swing matchups
If possible, I’d keep him rostered because he is a James Cook rolled ankle away from being a locked-and-loaded RB2. That said, he can be let go by managers who are simply focused on surviving this week — with Cook currently healthy, Davis isn’t close to sniffing starting lineups.