Week 15 WR Start’ Em or Sit’ Em: Start-Sit Advice for Every Fantasy-Relevant Wide Receiver in Every Game

It’s Week 15, and for the majority of fantasy football leagues, it means it’s playoff time. For others, it’s the last week before the playoffs begin.

Whichever kind of league you’re in, there are always plenty of questions about who to start and who to sit in your lineups. Below, we’ve provided analysis for every fantasy-relevant wide receiver in every game this weekend.

If you’re looking for all positions, head to our Week 15 Fantasy Football Start-Sit Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.

Adam Thielen | CAR (vs. DAL)

Adam Thielen has reached 19 PPR points in consecutive games, the first player 34 years or older to do that since Larry Fitzgerald (2017). The storytelling stats are nice, but I have less confidence in the predictive ones.

Thielen has been thriving based on slot usage and extreme efficiency. The slot role is going to be his for the rest of the season, but once Jalen Coker returns, his volume of looks in that spot is destined to decline.

As for the efficiency, an 81% catch rate over the past two weeks is difficult to project to sustain in any situation, let alone a Bryce Young-led offense. The Cowboys’ defense has shown life since Micah Parsons returned to the mix in Week 10; if the Cowboys are afforded the opportunity to pin their ears back, Thielen’s fantasy stock could come crashing back to Earth this week.

Keep an eye on Coker’s status. If he sits again, Thielen will elevate into the Darnell Mooney tier of my ranks, a range in which I’m comfortable Flexing. If that’s not the case, he’s going to struggle to crack my top 40 at the position.

A.J. Brown | PHI (vs. PIT)

What was that last weekend? Four targets on 26 routes against the Panthers?

A.J. Brown has seen his expected point total decline in three straight games, and while he is trending in the wrong direction, he’s one big play away from getting on track. He’s scored just once in his past seven games, but with a deep catch in every game this season and an end-zone look in the majority of his contests, I’d recommend simply riding this cold stretch out.

As is the case with Detroit’s skill position players, Philadelphia can be a victim of its own success. This team can and has won without Brown putting up video game numbers. You have to swallow some risk to get the reward — don’t overreact, things are going to be just fine. This could be a “get right” spot, with the Steelers having allowed a touchdown on 13 of 17 red-zone trips over the past five weeks.

Alec Pierce | IND (at DEN)

Playing in the thin air of Denver, potentially lining up across Pat Surtain II, and relying on Anthony Richardson’s right arm — Alec Pierce’s profile isn’t very easy to support with confidence this weekend.

Maybe the bye week ups the creativity of the Colts’ offense, and they put Pierce in a position to win downfield. But are you comfortable in betting your fantasy season on Richardson cashing in such an opportunity?

The burner has just three catches on 10 targets over his past two games. I have concerns when it comes to efficiency, volume, and scoring equity. Outside of that, Pierce is a great play.

Christian Watson (at SEA) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (vs. CIN) are two deep-ball receivers I prefer over Pierce this week, with Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. BAL) and DeMario Douglas (at ARI) checking in as “boring” options who I have much more confidence in over Indy’s riskiest option.

Amari Cooper | BUF (at DET)

In his first four games with Buffalo, Amari Cooper saw 13 targets on 73 routes. In the Week 14 loss to the Rams, the veteran receiver saw 14 passes thrown his way on 26 routes.

Was this a matchup thing or the start of a beautiful connection with Josh Allen? Only time will tell on that front — it’s worth noting that Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman were both inactive, not to mention a game script that demanded aggression.

Not all of those things are going to align weekly, but they could be in play this week to some degree. The Lions are a good bet to push the Bills, and while one or both of his teammates could be back in the mix, their extended absences have me pessimistic that they will return at full strength this weekend.

The Lions are the best red-zone pass defense in the league; that caps the upside case for a receiver who plays on an offense that wants to rush the ball into the end zone as it is, but I think the plus volume sticks. That’s enough to Flex him with a decent level of confidence.

Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET (vs. BUF)

Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone three straight games without a score, and this is coming on the heels of a franchise-record eight-in-a-row stretch with a TD.

I’m not the least bit worried, and a matchup with a defense that allows the fourth-highest red-zone completion percentage (65.1%) could easily see this streak coming to an end. The Bills make their bones on the defensive end by taking away your chunk plays on the perimeter — the Lions are the type of versatile offense that is happy to take its medicine.

Could this be St. Brown’s third double-digit reception game of the season?

Brandin Cooks | DAL (at CAR)

Brandin Cooks has scored in consecutive games and seems to have the inside track at WR2 honors in this offense. In his two games back, the veteran has earned 10 targets; that’s impressive — the 19 yards gained in those games, less so.

Cooks hasn’t reached 20 receiving yards in a game since the season opener, and even if he breaks that trend this week, that doesn’t mean he finishes as a Flex-worthy option. The Panthers are the worst defense in terms of creating pressure and, for me, that just gives Cooper Rush more time to lock on CeeDee Lamb or the tight ends.

If I’m hellbent on starting a veteran receiver with a limited ceiling, I’m going in the direction of JuJu Smith-Schuster every time.

Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX (vs. NYJ)

Brian Thomas Jr. was an afterthought in the first half last week.

“Afterthought” isn’t accurate. Sorry. He wasn’t a thought at all. The talented rookie didn’t have a single reception during the first 30 minutes against the Titans, something that is close to inexcusable.

Safe to say, this fact was addressed at halftime:

Thomas finished with eight receptions after intermission — tied for the fourth-most by a rookie in the second half of a game during the 2000s.

So, whaddaya say, Mac? Maybe we look in the direction of the most talented skill player on this roster from the jump this time around? I love that Jacksonville was able to scheme up opportunities for BTJ last week because I think they are going to need to do that again in this spot against the second-best blitzing defense in the league.

I’m choosing to buy the second-half production more than fear whatever the first half was last week, and that lands him inside of my top 30 this week.

Calvin Ridley | TEN (vs. CIN)

You can be worried about this Titans passing game all you want, but you can’t sweat Calvin Ridley’s usage. The team’s clear-cut WR1 has caught a deep pass in six of his past seven games and, since the middle of October, has five games with at least five targets 15+ yards downfield.

We obviously want to marry quality and quantity when it comes to targets, but a high number of chances can be enough when discussing an elite athlete like Ridley.

Last week, we got more evidence that the Bengals still lack the ability to take away top options. The similarly limited Cowboys marched down the field to open Monday Night Football with three of Cooper Rush’s completions, including the 11-yard touchdown, going in the direction you’d expect — CeeDee Lamb.

Lamb finished with the best WR stat line produced against the Bengals this season and continued the theme of big-play receivers piling up PPR points against Cincy.

The QB limitations make it impossible for me to rank Ridley as a WR1, but he’s a rock-solid WR2 whom I rank in the same range as other stars in limited offenses (Malik Nabers and Davante Adams).

Cedric Tillman | CLE (vs. KC)

Cedric Tillman hasn’t practiced in consecutive weeks (concussion) and entered this week still in protocol. He was not able to clear it and will miss Week 15.

Given how productive Jerry Jeudy has been under Jameis Winston’s leadership, I worry that the deep role Tillman left won’t be there when he returns.

For the season, Tillman owns a 12.3-yard aDOT and has seen two of his three scores come on deep passes. For me, he’s the most volatile receiver in a volatile offense. I’ll pass unless I’m in the most desperate of situations.

That’s not a knock on Tillman as much as it is confidence in myself to put together a starting lineup that carries a stable enough floor where I don’t need to roll the dice on a profile like this in a tough spot in order to be competitive.

That said, I’m 100% holding onto Tillman. If you thought the Browns had to put their foot on the gas to keep up with Bo Nix on Monday night, what happens with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Tua Tagovailoa left on the schedule after this week?

Tillman isn’t the type of player I’m rushing back into lineups, but assuming health, he’s going to carry plenty of ceiling appeal during the most important stretch of the fantasy season.

CeeDee Lamb | DAL (at CAR)

CeeDee Lamb is doing his best to keep this offense (and your fantasy team) afloat. Cooper Rush is limited in a variety of ways, but his WR1 has either scored or seen double-digit passes throw his way in five of six games under the backup, production that is above what most of us penciled in after Dak Prescott was lost for the season.

Dallas is doing all they can to get the ball in the hands of their difference-maker (one rush attempt per game during this stretch with Rush). While it’s fair to worry about the quality of opportunity, that might not matter this week.

Among the receivers to clear 20 PPR points against the Panthers this season are DJ Moore, Tre Tucker, and Jakobi Meyers. Lamb is a special talent — that allows him to retain top-10 WR status despite playing in an offense that is close to inept.

Christian Watson | GB (at SEA)

Christian Watson has cleared a 90% snap share in consecutive games with Romeo Doubs (concussion) sidelined, and if his teammate continues to be a spectator, you can entertain the idea of Flexing this boom/bust receiver.

I was encouraged by how the Packers came out of the locker room Thursday night in Detroit after a disappointing first 30 minutes:

Packers’ first possession of the second half:

• Josh Jacobs rush, -1 yards
• Jordan Love to Christian Watson, 59 yards
• Jordan Love to Christian Watson, incomplete
• Jordan Love to Christian Watson, incomplete
• Jordan Love to Tucker Kraft, TD

If we can lock in featured usage with Watson, I’ll happily roll the dice on his physical tools against a low-blitz defense like Seattle where time should be available to earn targets down the field.

Of course, there’s risk. Not only with the player but the offense as a whole. Watson had 64.5% of Green Bay’s first-half receiving yards last week and had all of 1.0 PPR points to show for it.

This offense can be potent, but it can also be silent. So when you weigh the environmental risk with the sporadic target-earning abilities, Watson is a tough sell if the WR room for the Packers is full.

That hasn’t been the case of late, and that adds enough opportunity potential to go this way in a pinch. But if we get word that Doubs is set to return without major restrictions, I’ll be throwing darts elsewhere this weekend.

Cooper Kupp | LAR (at SF)

It’s not quite the same, but expectations need to be adjusted for Cooper Kupp in a similar way that they need to be tweaked for DK Metcalf. Both are great receivers with plenty of production left in their profiles, but neither is projecting as a co-WR1 in his offense any longer.

Even with Puka Nacua taking a step toward true stardom, Kupp has earned at least eight targets in three of his past four games. Matthew Stafford is more than capable of sustaining two viable receivers, and I expect that to be the case in a matchup that is nowhere near as intimidating as it was to open the season.

Through 14 weeks, the 49ers allow the fifth-highest red-zone completion percentage (the lone spot where I trust Kupp to win over Nacua) and are the fourth-worst at creating pressure when blitzing. A comfortable Stafford can pick apart any defense, and we know he funnels everything through his star receivers.

Nacua and Kupp were both special last week, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if they both finished Week 15 as top-20 producers at the position again.

Courtland Sutton | DEN (vs. IND)

Courtland Sutton has seen at least eight targets in six straight games, but he’s not just a volume play.

During this run as the alpha in Denver, he’s produced 31.4% over expectations, meshing well with the developmental patterns of Bo Nix in an offense that ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation through 14 weeks.

The volume creates a nice floor, the efficiency gives us stability, and the matchup opens up access to a top-10 week. This season, the Colts are allowing the seventh-highest red-zone completion percentage (63.8%), a weakness I like Sean Payton to pick on given this offense’s struggles to run the ball.

I’m betting Nix’s over in pass attempts and completions — if those bets come through, you’re going to be thrilled to have Sutton in your lineup.

Darius Slayton | NYG (vs. BAL)

Darius Slayton has totaled just four catches on 14 targets over his past three games. I’m willing to overlook efficiency concerns in the name of volume for an elite role like Malik Nabers’, but Slayton doesn’t get that benefit of the doubt.

Last week, Slayton was busy streaking down the field (16.2 aDOT) and nearly paid it off with a chunk gain. If I were confident that this offense would get above-average quarterback play, I’d overlook a missed deep target and cite this role as one that carries enough upside to consider in the right position.

What’s the problem? I’m not at all confident that is the case.

Darnell Mooney | ATL (at LV)

Darnell Mooney cleared 100 yards in the first half last week against the Vikings, continuing a season that I don’t think any of us saw coming. He already has set a career-high in touchdown receptions for a season and is just 183 yards from the best yardage total during his five years in the NFL.

The 21.3% on-field target share is suitable if Kirk Cousins can figure his life out, and the 12.8-yard aDOT has me optimistic in this specific matchup against a defense that struggles to create pressure, even when bringing an extra player (32.4% pressure rate when blitzing, second-lowest). Cousins is struggling to properly process defensive schemes right now, but I’m confident that if he is just sitting in the pocket, he can find Mooney down the field as he separates.

Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen are receivers that come with similar quarterback risk but less per-target upside — I have Mooney ranked just ahead of both of them as low-end Flex options.

Davante Adams | NYJ (at JAX)

Over the past months, Davante Adams has seen elite volume (43 targets in four games), but at 6.5 yards per target, the efficiency continues to underwhelm.

He and Aaron Rodgers connected on a 3-yard score last week on a play that very much resembled their time together in a different shade of green, giving us a flicker of hope that there is strong production to chase down the stretch of this season.

I’m cautiously optimistic. The Jets have dialed back Adams’ aDOT significantly, and while that is an issue when it comes to making the upside case, it should result in an increase in efficiency with time. I’ve got Adams ranked in the same low-end WR2 tier as DK Metcalf and Zay Flowers for this week, talented players with a range of outcomes that are just large enough to make us sweat.

DeAndre Hopkins | KC (at CLE)

After a low usage debut with the Chiefs, DeAndre Hopkins has seven end-zone targets in six games and is being used in a very fantasy-friendly way.

Skeptics will point to a 44.4% catch rate over the past two weeks as an issue, but I’d argue that the 29% on-field target share in those games is more impactful and that the chemistry between him and Patrick Mahomes will take care of itself with time.

I have Nuk ranked at the top of the tier with team WR1s who carry more QB volatility, names like Brian Thomas Jr., Jayden Reed, and DJ Moore.

Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF (vs. LAR)

As the injuries pile up, Deebo Samuel Sr.’s projected role only becomes more fantasy-friendly. He was handed the rock five times last week against the Bears, his highest total since Week 1, and while it didn’t net much (13 rushing yards), I’m perfectly OK with betting on that role.

The Rams are the second-worst pass defense in terms of yards per attempt, thus making every target worth more this week than most for Samuel. Efficiency has been an issue for much of this season, but I think you’re playing him as a Flex option in most formats, understanding that 10 opportunities (targets + rush attempts) are very possible, if not likely.

Jauan Jennings is my favorite receiver in San Francisco these days, but I trust Brock Purdy enough from a consistency point of view to get all three of his pass-catchers home.

Demarcus Robinson | LAR (at SF)

That’s now three straight games with no more than three targets and five straight without more than two grabs for Demarcus Robinson. If you’re holding onto Los Angeles’ WR3 at this point, you’re stashing him as a way to chase TD equity.

That’s fine, it’s just awfully thin.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua vacuumed in 73.3% of Matthew Stafford’s targets last week, making the volume a near impossibility when it comes to projection math. Robinson has seen a deep target in every game this season, and while that’s great, it’s not so much when discussing a matchup with a top-three defense against those long passes in terms of passer rating, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and touchdown rate.

I’m never going to get there on a player like Robinson, which means I’ve missed out on some Flex-worthy production at points this season. If you’re less risk-averse than I, this is still a tough sell — save your good vibes for a home game against the Cardinals in Week 17.

DeMario Douglas | NE (at ARI)

DeMario Douglas hasn’t reached 65 receiving yards since Week 6, as he fills a weird void of a traditionally consistent role in a non-traditional offense that lacks consistency.

That’s simply not ideal. Douglas’ 77.4% catch rate since the beginning of November is a step in the right direction for PPR managers, and a matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks below league average when defending the slot in yards per attempt, yards per completion, and touchdown rate is far from intimidating.

You’re grasping for straws to a degree (one game with 12 expected PPR points over his past seven, and only one of his 341 routes has netted an end-zone target). But desperate PPR managers have a path to a handful of catches in an offense that has a higher implied total this week than normal, given the opponent and favorable forecast.

DeVonta Smith | PHI (vs. PIT)

DeVonta Smith scored in his return to action, his fifth touchdown of the season. The scoring has been encouraging, but his air yards per game are down 24% from a season ago, and in this run-oriented offense, the lowering of his per-target upside isn’t ideal.

I’m going to like Smith more in games that are projected to be tight than potential blowouts (Week 17 vs. Cowboys) because of what it means for the game script. I have him ranked in the same tier as Marvin Harrison Jr. and Darnell Mooney for Week 15.

Diontae Johnson | BAL (at NYG)

Diontae Johnson has been suspended for this week, with the team citing “conduct detrimental to the team” as the reason why.

On the bright side, his conduct hasn’t been detrimental to fantasy teams, as he’s been invisible since the trade. I can’t imagine that you realistically needed an excuse to part ways with the troubled receiver, but now you have it.

DJ Moore | CHI (at MIN)

DJ Moore has four straight games with at least seven targets, and while that’s a positive, the production patterns are nearly as optimistic.

In this up-and-down Caleb Williams offense, Moore has produced under expectations in seven of his past nine games. I blame the underwhelming nature of his stat lines on a role that carries very little upside (his aDOT has been 5.0 yards or lower in four of his past five). If Williams is going to be sporadic, I want the reward to be great when he connects, and that isn’t really going to be the case given this target trajectory.

That said, you can justify Flexing Moore because we saw him catch all seven of his targets for 106 yards and a score in this exact matchup back in Week 12. Personally, I’d rather roll the dice on getting “the good” Jameis Winston to support Jerry Jeudy or a viable version of Mac Jones to get Brian Thomas Jr. to the finish line over Moore this week.

DK Metcalf | SEA (vs. GB)

This Seattle offense can sustain two receivers, and with Tyler Lockett trending out of favor, DK Metcalf isn’t at serious risk of falling out of your lineup.

That said, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is now my default WR1 for the Seahawks, and I think his skill set is much safer than Metcalf’s in this specific matchup on Sunday night. The Packers own the highest deep interception rate through 14 weeks, a strength that could (should) have Geno Smith favoring the quick hitters as opposed to the chunk plays.

Metcalf hasn’t cleared 60 receiving yards since October, introducing a level of risk that most don’t assume when evaluating this beast. He’s a fringe top-20 player at the position for me, checking just behind Calvin Ridley and Jauan Jennings.

Dontayvion Wicks | GB (at SEA)

The idea behind Dontayvion Wicks is the single-target upside. Be it in the end zone or deep down the field.

Neither is currently coming his way, and that means you look elsewhere for help.

It’s been more than a month since Wicks’ last end-zone target, and Week 7 was the last time he reached 55 air yards in a game. If you want to stash Wicks as a way to have a piece on the field for an above-average offense on your bench (80% of the snaps or better in two straight games), you have my good wishes, but it’s tough to justify considering him as a legitimate Flex option in any situation.

Drake London | ATL (at LV)

Drake London has seen 46 targets over his past four games, and while all of that volume hasn’t paid off in a single touchdown due to the struggles of Kirk Cousins, he’s been a usable asset for three of those four games, a nice showing all things considered.

Ja’Marr Chase is the only player in the NFL with more end-zone targets this season than London, a role that will pay off with time. The Raiders are a bottom-10 defense in end-zone completion percentage and bottom-five in end-zone completions per game — the volume appears safe and the scoring equity is higher than you might assume, even with a struggling signal caller.

Elijah Moore | CLE (vs. KC)

Elijah Moore earned just four targets last week, and his inconsistencies in that department are what keep him on the low end of the Flex rankings at best. Despite all of the aforementioned volume in this offense, Moore’s target count has been consistently inconsistent, and that’s not going to pay the bills in a Jameis Winston offense that comes with built-in volatility as it is.

• Week 11 at New Orleans Saints: six catches on eight targets
• Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: three catches on five targets
• Week 13 at Denver Broncos: eight catches on 14 targets
• Week 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers: three catches on four targets

I’m willing to admit that the Steelers might just defend his specific role well. They are an elite defense that takes away layup targets, thus putting Moore in a tough spot. The Chiefs allow the fourth-most yards per slot pass this season, a flaw that gives me cautious optimism that the recent streak of high-volume odd-numbered weeks can continue.

Moore isn’t a must-play, but I do have him ranked ahead of other primary slot options like DeMario Douglas and Wan’Dale Robinson this week.

Garrett Wilson | NYJ (at JAX)

Vibes weren’t great for Garrett Wilson’s managers heading into Week 14. They were invested in a struggling Jets offense that had shown few signs of life in this lost season. In Weeks 10-13, Wilson had a total of 100 yards on 24 targets, production that is more symbolic of a waiver wire option rather than a high-pedigree receiver playing with a future Hall of Fame QB.

Everything changed in Week 14 against the Dolphins. Wilson was responsible for three of Aaron Rodgers’ first seven completions and 55 of his first 98 passing yards. He was featured from the jump and even had a 35-yard catch to pick up a fourth down in the second quarter.

Where has this been all season?

The 7-114-0 stat line was a sight for sore eyes, and it could have been much better if Rodgers wasn’t a touch off target on a deep pass in the third quarter. Wilson was able to adjust and make it a 42-yard gain, but if hit in stride, we are talking about a 68-yard touchdown.

Jets WRs aDOT, Weeks 7-14:

• Garrett Wilson: 10.8
• Davante Adams: 8.5

The Jaguars are the most vulnerable deep-ball defense in the league, allowing 16.4 yards per pass with one of every nine attempts resulting in a touchdown. Wilson could be the top-producing Jet receiver in this specific matchup, a player take that could lead to you building a profitable DFS lineup.

In season-long formats, last week was encouraging enough to play both of Rodgers’ top receivers.

George Pickens | PIT (at PHI)

George Pickens missed the first game of his career last week. A hamstring injury resulted in a Friday status downgrade before he was officially ruled inactive pre-game. He will miss another game in Week 15.

Regarding his rest-of-season outlook, the upside is no secret (six finishes as a WR2 or better). But we can’t let that distract you from three finishes outside of the top 55 receivers, a floor that is at an increased risk of impacting future weeks if a compromised version of him is trying to play.

Generally speaking, I love the way this Russell Wilson-led offense looks for Pickens. With the veteran calling the shots, Pittsburgh’s WR1 has produced 17.2% over expectations and has eight end-zone targets in six games.

Stay close to the Pittsburgh beats — a proper read on this situation with Pickens in the coming weeks could very well be the difference in your playoff matchups.

Jakobi Meyers | LV (vs. ATL)

This Raiders offense has been about as concentrated as any in the NFL. That doesn’t lock in production, but it gives the featured options a chance, and Jakobi Meyers is a prime example of that.

Meyers has six top-30 PPR finishes this season, an impressive accomplishment all things considered. With Aidan O’Connell under center this season, Meyers has posted a 29.4% on-field target (2.6 yards per route). That’s a role I can justify playing against a Falcons defense that creates pressure at the second lowest rate, thus allowing Vegas’ WR1 time to create separation.

His upside is limited as it is in an offense that rarely frequents the red zone, and any change under center only increases the risk. If O’Connell guts this out, Meyers is a low-end Flex, but if not, I’d rather take a wait-and-see approach for an offense that could be one of the three worst in the league.

Jalen Coker | CAR (vs. DAL)

Jalen Coker has missed three straight games with a quad injury. While there is some cautious optimism for this week after he practiced in a limited capacity last week, it shouldn’t impact your lineup in the slightest.

Adam Thielen has assumed control of the slot role in this limited offense, thus making Coker’s impact more likely to limit his veteran teammate’s sustainability than offer anything individually.

Jalen McMillan | TB (at LAC)

Jalen McMillan was one of the breakout stories of Week 14, scoring a pair of touchdowns in the 28-13 win over the Raiders. The 21.9 PPR fantasy points were great to see, but with just 11.7 expected points to show for that role, I worry about the sustainability.

Through 13 weeks, the rookie was producing 26.7% below expectations, further increasing my concerns that last week was anything other than a flash in the pan. If you trust 2+ months of data over a strong four quarters, you’d have expected McMillan to score 8.6 points last week; if that was the case, would we be having this discussion?

He has a 50% catch rate for the season — with just 119 air yards over his past three games, there’s not enough upside in this profile for me to Flex him.

Jalen Tolbert | DAL (at CAR)

The WR2 role in Dallas is begging for someone to assume control of it, and it would seem that Jalen Tolbert is trending out of consideration.

The third-year receiver was on the field for a season-low 64.4% of snaps on Monday night, and while I think there’s a discussion to be had about whether Brandin Cooks is the answer, there’s value to be had in knowing who is not the answer; that is the situation we seem to be in with Tolbert.

You can cut ties without much fear of it coming back to haunt you.

Ja’Marr Chase | CIN (at TEN)

I could “stat” you to death about Ja’Marr Chase’s Week 14, past month, or his 2024 season, but I’m already asking you to do a lot of reading, so let’s just relive Monday night together in 120 enjoyable seconds.

Every catch from Ja'Marr Chase's monster night on MNF:
🐅 14 catches
🐅 177 yards
🐅 2 TD pic.twitter.com/v0Wh55L6k4

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2024

He’s the first Bengal with 75 receiving yards and a touchdown reception in four straight games since Chad Johnson did it in 2004, and the history-making doesn’t figure to slow given his connection with Joe Burrow.

Could he be fantasy football’s 1.01 for 2025?

Jameson Williams | DET (vs. BUF)

For the first time in his short career, Jameson Williams has hauled in five passes in three straight games.

I’ve heard plenty of complaints over the past few weeks from those who roster JaMo, and I get it. You’d assume that a run like that would net more than 34.4 PPR points. That said, did you draft Williams for the talent with hope for volume or the other way around?

Exactly. Your bet from the jump was on raw talent and the hope that he could develop as a target earner in his third season. If I told you back in September that the looks wouldn’t be an issue entering the fantasy playoffs, you would have asked me where to sign.

All of that said, this is a tough spot. Whether it’s completion percentage, TD rate, or passer rating, Buffalo is one of the best units in the NFL at taking away the deep ball. And while there has been development, that is still Williams’ calling card in our game.

Both the Bears and 49ers rank in the bottom third in yards per deep completion, so I think there will be an opportunity to unleash Williams’ upside in your hopeful run to glory. Still, I think patience is the play this week.

Jauan Jennings| SF (vs. LAR)

Jauan Jennings scored on San Francisco’s first drive last week and has looked like one of the 10 most uncoverable receivers for reasonable amounts of time this season.

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jauan Jennings

Those are the three receivers this season (of the 34 with at least 75 targets) who have spent at least 30% of their time in the slot and average 2.1 PPR points per target. If I told you back in September that one name would join Chase and St. Brown on that list, how many guesses would it have taken for you to land on Jennings?

50?

150?

His ability to win quick routes should prove profitable this week against the third-best blitzing team in the NFL (49% pressure rate when bringing an extra body), and that should have him locked into lineups across the board. We have enough evidence that Brock Purdy is capable of getting his playmakers the ball; with this running game in shambles, Jennings’ production floor is that of a star at the position.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA (vs. GB)

At this point, it’s not a hot take to label Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR1 in Seattle. His success rate seems to be tied with the team’s success, and that’s always a good sign for business as it’s a good way to experience role expansion.

During the Seahawks’ four-game winning streak, all JSN has done is catch 25 of 27 targets for 443 yards and a pair of touchdowns. No big deal. The list of receivers to post four straight games with an 85% catch rate and 70 receiving yards since 2009 isn’t long:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown (Weeks 10-13, 2022)
• Smith-Njigba (current)

Could that be the trajectory of this former Buckeye? I’m not saying no.

Jayden Reed | GB (at SEA)

Alright, friends. I assembled some of the brightest minds over the past week. We are talking about a room that includes a doctorate degree, multiple masters, a high school administrative leader, the person I most model my behavior after, and … me.

The latter aside, that’s an impressive amount of brain power within the same four walls. You can choose to believe that these résumés came together for the sole purpose of cracking the mystery that is Jayden Reed or that it was a casual happy hour with my immediate family, but I’m simply sharing facts.

Coming out of that room, after a Friday night of loud discussions, we came to a line of thought. There’s no way to know if it is bulletproof or not; predicting the future is tough, but a trend was unearthed, and considering that I’ve struggled to get Green Bay’s WR1 right all season long, I’m riding it for this week.

This season, Reed is averaging 8.7 expected PPR points per game. We are less concerned about the mean outcomes, instead wanting to know when the tail outcomes are coming. Reed has had nine games this season in which he’s been at least three points over or three points under that average number.

Here is where those teams rank, for the season, in yards per deep completion.

Opponents against whom Reed had 11.7+ expected PPR points, 2024:

• Dolphins: 5th in yards allowed per deep completion
• Vikings: 7th
• Titans: 9th
• Cardinals: 14th

Opponents against whom Reed had 5.7 or fewer expected PPR points, 2024:

• Lions: 16th in yards allowed per deep completion
• Bears: 22nd
• 49ers: 25th
• Jaguars: 30th
• Colts: 31st

Listen, I’m not saying I love it, but it’s the lone thread that connected the desired games that this room of well-hydrated individuals could come up with. Through 14 weeks, the Seahawks rank 10th in this stat, limiting the production of Jared Goff and Brock Purdy in road games, an impressive feat, to say the least.

Seattle is a bottom-10 blitz rate team, and before the Lions attacked with reckless abandon on Thursday night — certainly something that was impacted by the game script and a second meeting this season — the Packers were one of the defenses blitzed least often (Weeks 8-13, 28th in opponent blitz rate). If we are trying to play 4D chess, less defensive aggression makes pressure on Jordan Love less likely, and that’s when we want to gamble on Reed.

• Reed’s on-field target share, Love is pressured: 13%
• Reed’s on-field target share, Love not pressured: 23.1%

I’m sorry that you had to spend that time inside of my head. I’m back in on Reed for a bounce-back Week 15 with the hope being that this matchup, along with the motivation to get him at least remotely involved, is a priority off of the min-bye after the disappointing no-show against Detroit.

Fingers crossed.

Jaylen Waddle | MIA (at HOU)

The 20.9 PPR points from Jaylen Waddle were encouraging, but the result is not what has my attention. He posted 20.3 expected fantasy points on the back of strong volume (12 targets after averaging five targets per game over his previous six contests) and the elite execution of timing routes was promising (nine catches on 10 targets that came less than 15 yards downfield).

This — this is the Waddle we drafted with confidence over the summer, and those who held onto this stock appear positioned to benefit greatly at the perfect time.

I prefer Tyreek Hill this week by a decent amount (I had them ranked within seven spots last week) because I think he has more of a ceiling upside in a matchup against the best defense in terms of sub-15-air-yard completion percentage, but considering that only the Falcons allow touchdown passes at a higher rate than the Texans this season, there’s enough food for both of these stars to eat.

Jerry Jeudy | CLE (vs. KC)

We got the Jameis Winston experience, both the good and the bad, all within one game last week. Jerry Jeudy cashed in a 35-yard touchdown on Cleveland’s second drive and it was easy to get excited about a second straight ceiling week from his WR1.

Not so much.

That single catch accounted for more than half of Jeudy’s Week 14 production, the result of Winston being awfully ordinary after the hot start. It’s a roller coaster ride from quarter to quarter, let alone week over week, and that means you’re never going to be in a comfortable spot. The one thing you can count on from the Browns these days is extreme volume; as long as that continues, the math suggests that starting Jeudy is the play.

Could this be a floor week? Of course. Any week can be, but a Chiefs defense that ranks better than the league average in both yards per pass and touchdown rate brings such an outcome more into focus. I’ve got Jeudy pegged as a high-end Flex play this weekend — with bye weeks behind us, I’m looking for more matchup upside when constructing my DFS lineups.

Jordan Addison | MIN (vs. CHI)

There are three players in the league with multiple 8-130-1 receiving games this season — two of the names you’d expect and the other is the header to this section of this novel.

• Ja’Marr Chase (three)
• Nico Collins (two)
• Jordan Addison (two)

There is certainly a defensive component to that (four of those seven games have come against the Ravens or Bears), but there is also a specific type of receiver that is capable of rattling off games like this.

All of those WRs have a career yards-per-catch average of at least 14 yards with over 7.5% of their career receptions resulting in touchdowns. I’m not the least bit optimistic that Addison’s stock flirts with those other two names long-term, but explosion spots like what we saw last week are going to happen (8-133-3).

Addison was a star the last time these teams met (8-162-1), and with the Bears allowing the fourth-most yards per pass this season, that tracks. In that game, Justin Jefferson was held to just two grabs for 27 yards as Chicago devoted all of their resources to slowing him down.

If you’re optimistic that they employ that strategy again, by all means, fire up Addison with confidence. You do need to be aware of the risks that come with this profile — he’s been held under 45 receiving yards five times in 11 games this season.

He’s pushing for top-30 status for me this week, lower than you might assume coming off of the monstrous Week 14.

Josh Downs | IND (at DEN)

Josh Downs continues to battle a shoulder injury, and his status seems to be on the pessimistic side of questionable as we sit here today. I don’t think he’d be subject to a Patrick Surtain II shadow should he suit up, and that projection has him sitting as a fine PPR Flex play in my preliminary “if-active” rankings.

Top PPR WRs, Weeks 8-11:

• Ja’Marr Chase: 113.6 PPR points
• Amon-Ra St. Brown: 84.0
• CeeDee Lamb: 82.8
• Cooper Kupp: 81.1
• Courtland Sutton: 74.2
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 71.7
• Calvin Ridley: 70.1
• Downs: 67.8

My hunch is that your default ranking of Downs isn’t nearly high enough. His health and his quarterback introduce plenty of risks, but the versatile skill set is plenty to land him in your PPR lineup with confidence should he clear all physical hurdles entering the weekend.

Joshua Palmer | LAC (vs. TB)

This time of year, I get a lot of “I need upside, don’t care about downside … who can I plug-and-play” sort of questions. I get it and I love it. The ability to be real with your expectations of your team is critical when it comes to succeeding at a high level in this game of ours.

I also love these questions because you’re taking all of the faults of a downside out of my hands and allowing me to only look like the hero. By framing the question like that, you’re expecting disaster and looking for me to swoop in.

The answer this week is going to be Joshua Palmer.

He’s been on the field for over 74% of Los Angeles’ offensive snaps in three of his past four games, and his vertical role opens up the door to a WR2 finish. This season, Tampa Bay has a below-average defense when defending deep passes in terms of passer rating, touchdown rate, and interception percentage.

Air yards leaders, Week 14:

• Amari Cooper: 247 yards
• DeAndre Hopkins: 180 yards
• Jordan Addison: 168 yards
• Ja’Marr Chase: 151 yards
• Malik Nabers: 140 yards
• Tyreek Hill: 139 yards
• Palmer: 134 yards

My guess is that you didn’t wake up today and expect to see Palmer’s name on a list like that. There is an obvious risk that comes with this profile (one touchdown catch over the past 365 days), but if you’re throwing caution to the wind, Palmer’s Week 14 best-case scenario ranks among the top 25 at the position.

Let’s see if we can get you a win as a significant underdog!

JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC (at CLE)

JuJu Smith-Schuster has been hovering around a 50% snap share for three weeks now, and his role has been bouncing all over the place.

• Week 12 at Panthers: 70.3% slot rate
• Week 13 vs. Raiders: 21.1% slot rate
• Week 14 vs. Chargers: 48.5% slot rate

My hope, and reason for stashing him where I can, is that this team locks him into the slot and asks him to win on the quick routes. If you want to forecast that happening before we have concrete evidence, you could be ahead of the field in a very profitable manner with the Browns allowing a league-high 10.0 yards per slot pass attempt this season.

I tend toward following median projections for my rankings and with uncertainty around Smith-Schuster’s precise role, that lands him outside of my top 50 at the position. That said, if you told me that there was a surprise player this week to catch 7-10 passes and be a key piece in DFS formats on the cheap, he’d be my pick against the top pressure-applying defense in the league.

Justin Jefferson | MIN (vs. CHI)

The national nightmare ended last week when Justin Jefferson scored for the first time since Week 7, hauling in a 12-yard end-zone target from Sam Darnold.

He added a 52-yard touchdown catch later in the game on a busted coverage situation, and we’ve seen scores come in bunches for the game’s finest receiver (he opened this season with a TD in four straight games and scored in six of eight games during a post-Halloween spurt in 2022).

The Bears took the Vikings to overtime in Week 12 by selling out to keep Jefferson in check (15.6% target share). I have no doubt that they will try to repeat that game plan; I also have little hesitation that Kevin O’Connell schemes up ways to combat that desire.

Whether you want to rank Jefferson as the WR2 or WR8 this week, you’re playing him with the utmost confidence and hoping he can provide you with a Monday night hammer.

Keenan Allen | CHI (at MIN)

Keenan Allen has one game this season with 20+ expected PPR points, and it was Week 12’s meeting with these Vikings (26.7 expected points and 23.6 produced points). He’s been unable to capitalize on the form he showed in that game in the two contests since (103 yards on 76 routes), and that makes him a long shot to repeat his past success.

In that first performance, Allen’s veteran savvy helped him earn a 37.5% on-field third down target share — Caleb Williams was locked onto him when it mattered most. I find it hard to think that the exotic stylings of the Minnesota defense don’t adjust to getting burned by Allen less than a month ago; with Rome Odunze producing in garbage time last week, it appears that Williams is comfortable taking whatever the defense gives him.

Chicago enters this game with an implied point total of under 20, leaving me with little faith that we see multiple pass catchers from this offense produce viable numbers. How lucky do you feel?

It has to be luckier than I — Allen is my WR39 this week, ranking in the Elijah Moore and Adam Thielen tier at the position.

Kendrick Bourne | NE (at ARI)

Kendrick Bourne saw his snap share increase in consecutive games before the Week 14 bye, and his recent efficiency has been noteworthy (11 catches on 13 targets). The early returns in his connection with Drake Maye are encouraging, and I think we could be looking at a sneaky late-round pick this summer (assuming he remains with the team) as a veteran option on a developing offense — but for this winter, you should be looking elsewhere.

Bourne has never been a volume target earner, something that makes his single-digit aDOT and 8% red-zone target rate damning metrics when it comes to his path to returning any sort of value for the remainder of this season.

Keon Coleman | BUF (at DET)

Keon Coleman has now missed four straight games with a wrist injury, and his status for Week 15 remains up in the air, though there has been more early optimism this week than in the past few.

I’m not sure it matters.

He’s earned a target on just 16.4% of his routes this season, and that doesn’t include many reps with Amari Cooper. This time last week, I was bullish on the idea of stashing Coleman with the thought being that the Bills would move heaven and earth to pass the Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

After a loss to the Rams last week on top of another heart-stopping Chiefs win, those dreams are all but dashed, and now I think a cautious approach is more likely than not.

I don’t see a realistic path to Coleman working his way into the top 35 of my receiver rankings at any point over the final month of the season. With that being the case, I believe you can move on should you need immediate help — Coleman, at best, is a long-term play with limited role upside.

Khalil Shakir | BUF (at DET)

I like to think that if I was athletically gifted, Khalil Shakir would be my spirit animal. Remove that pesky ability to excel physically, and we are basically identical.

• Listed at 6’ tall
• K.S. initials
• Aquarius Zodiac Sign
• Significant time spent in Upstate NY

See what I mean?

I’ve been ultra proud of my clone lately. Only Malik Nabers (11) has a longer active streak of 7+ target games than Shakir (seven), and with a red-zone touch in five of his past seven games, he’s benefiting from the overall consistency of Buffalo’s offense.

We saw a little bit of everything from Shakir last week in the loss to the Rams. The 51-yard catch, run, and shrug-off-tackles touchdown was impressive and on brand. I was even more encouraged by a 31-yard bomb that nearly got him a second score.

If Shakir’s route tree is expanding, get used to seeing this name ranked as a top-20 PPR receiver. This profile isn’t super exciting in terms of highlight plays, but I find winning fantasy matchups exciting, and my guy K.S. helps you do that consistently.

Ladd McConkey | LAC (vs. TB)

Ladd McConkey finally sat out last week. The rookie has been battling through a shoulder injury for a month now, and a knee injury late in Week 13 is ultimately what resulted in last week’s DNP.

McConkey was a true game-time decision, which has me putting him on the positive side of questionable as we turn the page to Week 14. The Bolts have lost two of three games after their 7-3 start, but their standing as a Wild Card team isn’t in much danger, so you’ll need to monitor this situation.

There is the possibility that LA rests its clear-cut top offensive playmaker. But if McConkey plays, you play him. He’s proven the ability to win routes in a hurry, and that is the type of skill set that can beat a Bucs defense that creates pressure at the fourth-highest rate when blitzing.

Case in point: Tampa Bay allows the second-most yards per slot target. McConkey is a must-start option at this point in the season and could be the top fantasy WR from the 2024 draft class in 2025 redrafts.

Malik Nabers | NYG (vs. BAL)

Try to remember all the way back to Week 3. The high-flying Saints were taking the league by storm, Justin Fields was under center for the Steelers, and J.K. Dobbins was pacing for north of 1,700 rushing yards.

Yeah, it was a while ago.

That was the last time Malik Nabers offered production above expectation. The rookie leads the league in games with double-digit targets (eight), but those have been empty calories more often than not.

If there is a defense that can play a volume receiver into value, you’d think it would be the Ravens. I don’t have a problem with that logic, but it’s worth noting that 10 of 11 WRs who scored 15 PPR points against this vulnerable defense benefited from, at the very least, aggressive QB play (Davante Adams in Week 2 being the lone exception).

Nabers obviously doesn’t get that benefit of the doubt, but we can essentially pencil in 10+ targets, which should allow him to fall into WR2 production.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling | NO (vs. WAS)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is essentially a full-time player for the banged-up Saints. However, with Derek Carr sidelined, I can’t imagine going in this direction with any level of confidence.

The recent production spike has been profitable, but MVS’ season on-field target share (14.5%) is in line with the expectations he’s laid out for his career (14.4%). And with the quality of targets set to decline in a major way, there’s no reason to elevate this profile simply based on a matchup with the worst deep-ball defense in the NFL (13.3% touchdown rate).

I’m not ending my fantasy season because I started a low-target option that is playing with a below-average backup quarterback.

Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI (vs. NE)

Rashod Bateman and Diontae Johnson.

Those are two receivers that I’m guessing you’ve spent very little brain power on this season. They both have three finishes inside the top 20 PPR receivers this season, the same number as Marvin Harrison Jr.

The high-pedigree rookie has been disappointing by any measure, and I wish I could tell you that things will trend in a positive direction, but I can’t.

Harrison’s slot rate has declined in three straight games as the layup targets continue to go to Trey McBride, while the first-year receiver is assuming a role that is nearly exclusively made up of highly difficult targets.

On the bright side, Harrison has seen multiple end-zone targets in consecutive games and 12 this season. With 45 catches on 86 targets this season, the hopes of efficiency are gone. So as long as you acknowledge that the upside you’re chasing here hinges on touchdowns, I’m okay with you continuing to bet on Harrison, even if the risk is far greater than we want.

I’m hopeful that New England being ranked 29th in pressure rate (29.8% of opponent dropbacks) allows us to see flashes of a downfield connection between Kyler Murray and Harrison — he’s my WR30 for Week 15.

Michael Pittman Jr. | IND (at DEN)

My ranking of Michael Pittman Jr. relies on Josh Downs’ status to a large degree. I view Downs (shoulder) as the top receiver in Indy’s offense, but with Shane Steichen very noncommittal to his status for this weekend, I’m penciling in Pittman as a PPR Flex play.

On the positive side of things, I think there’s an avenue for Pittman to win as a big slot option. The Broncos rank second in both pressure rate (39% of dropbacks) and blitz percentage (36%), a defensive profile that can encourage quick-hitting routes.

Now, Anthony Richardson taking those looks is a different worry entirely, but the idea of a receiver like Pittman, sans Downs, is something that has my attention.

Should Downs suit up, I’ll move Pittman to my bench as his profile is too thin to split his role in half. For the season, he has one top-20 finish and hasn’t seen a target with his feet in the paint since Week 6.

This Colts offense carries some weekly upside, but don’t confuse “upside” with “stability.” Jonathan Taylor is the only skill player in Indianapolis’ offense that you’re starting with confidence weekly.

Michael Wilson | ARI (vs. NE)

Michael Wilson scored from 41 yards out on Arizona’s first drive last week. He now has a deep reception in three straight games, a run coming on the heels of a four-game stretch that saw him earn a total of one downfield look.

The big play was nice to see and will fuel some of my continued support of Wilson as a long-term asset. Still, I can’t rank him as a Flex-worthy play as we come down the stretch.

The second-year receiver has cleared 6.5 expected PPR points in just one of his past five games, and until we see him earn targets at an average rate, going in this direction comes with more risk than reward.

If we get word that Christian Gonzalez is going to be a full-time Marvin Harrison shadow, the upside case increases here, though I think we’re still looking at more of a DFS play than anything for the final month of this season.

Mike Evans | TB (at LAC)

Mike Evans has four top-10 finishes this season (three of which came in the first five weeks). Those games are fun when they land, but with those being his only top-25’s of the season, this isn’t the résumé of an elite fantasy asset.

In this era without Chris Godwin, I would have never guessed that a 17.9% target share in a positive matchup was possible for Evans, though that is what we got against the Raiders on Sunday. The touchdown equity remains intact with his highest red-zone target rate since 2019. That is why you can continue to play Evans with confidence, even if the range of outcomes on a weekly basis is far greater than what you expected on draft day.

Evans needs to average 102.5 receiving yards the rest of the way to extend his record 1,000-yard streak, and we’ve seen this team go out of their way to get him to that number — you’re playing him. While this matchup appears stiff on paper, we are talking about the second-most vulnerable downfield defense in terms of touchdown rate.

Mike Williams | PIT (at PHI)

Did you make a mad dash to your DFS lineups last week when news came out that George Pickens was ruled out ahead of Pittsburgh’s game with Cleveland?

Personally, I opted to bet unders on Russell Wilson’s longest completion, a path I will likely double down on again this year if the star receiver remains sidelined — something Mike Tomlin seems to be projecting at the moment. Whether you made a pivot or not, the general idea of lumping usage onto Mike Williams made sense. He’s a big-bodied receiver who is as capable of making plays down the field as anyone not named Pickens on this roster.

It didn’t work.

Williams was the target of a deep pass on Wilson’s second throw of the game and later made an impressive one-handed grab on the sideline, but that was about it. His target rates were strong, and that’s good to see. But until this team shows us comfort rolling out the former first-round pick on a consistent basis, there’s just no real path to starting him in any capacity.

Williams’ weekly snap shares with Pittsburgh:

• Week 11 vs. Baltimore Ravens: 31.1%
• Week 12 at Cleveland Browns: 28.4%
• Week 13 at Cincinnati Bengals: 24.2%
• Week 14 vs. Cleveland Browns: 27.4%

Might the Steelers be waiting to unleash a Williams-centric package for the playoffs? I guess that’s possible, but that doesn’t help us now. We figure to have more time to react this week than last, as I’m currently counting Pickens out and pivoting if news changes as opposed to the other way around. However, without any certainty that Williams can be on the field for even one-third of the snaps, this is an ultra-thin profile at best.

I like the idea of him in this offense, but at this point, I think it’s safe to say that redraft fantasy managers can stop holding onto hope. Even if Williams sees his role expand this week on your bench, we won’t have any way of knowing that it’ll sustain when Pickens returns. The Eagles own the seventh-highest pressure rate this season, a strength that has me thinking that Williams may not have time to shake free down the field even if his snap share were to explode out of nowhere.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN (vs. CIN)

It’s almost like relying on touchdowns in a below-average offense is a risky maneuver. Go figure.

On Sunday against the Jags, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine earned just a pair of targets on his 31 routes. He’s just not a fantasy asset without chunk plays, and as long as he relies on Will Levis for those opportunities, this is an uphill battle.

An uphill battle, on ice, while trying to juggle flaming bowling pins.

On a unicycle.

For the season, Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging 2.4 PPR points per game not scored on touchdowns. Hard pass.

Nico Collins | HOU (vs. MIA)

Puka Nacua is great, right? We can’t agree on much, but that feels like a pretty universal take at this point.

• Nacua’s last month: 30.7% production over PPR expectation
• Nico Collins since the start of 2023: 31.1% production over PPR expectation

What Nacua has done for a month, Collins has been doing for two years with a quarterback whose best football is ahead of him. Despite missing five games, he leads the Texans in targets, catches, receiving touchdowns, and receiving yards … by 289 yards.

Why do I mention that? Collins is basically Houston’s first and second option in the passing game, and we’ve seen a pair of receivers combine for 30+ PPR points against the Dolphins with some regularity this season:

• DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Week 3: 30.0 PPR points
• Marvin Harrison and Michael Wilson, Week 8: 37.2 PPR points
• Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Week 10: 33.8 PPR points
• Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, Week 14: 44.3 PPR points

Am I suggesting that Collins scores 30 points on Sunday? Of course not, that would be irresponsible. Is he a staple in my DFS lineups coming out of the bye?

You bet.

Noah Brown | WAS (at NO)

Noah Brown is as capable as anyone not named Terry McLaurin on Washington’s roster of making plays downfield, which is why I’m keeping him stashed.

But rostering and starting are two very different things. The Saints allow the second-lowest deep-completion percentage and the fourth-lowest touchdown rate on those passes.

Brown’s 12.2-yard career aDOT (multiple deep targets in four of his past six games) opens the door for spike weeks in the right spots. I’m not losing track of him (Week 17 vs. Falcons, the seventh-worst yards-per-attempt-deep-pass defense), but I’m not giving him a second look in the scope of Week 15.

Parker Washington | JAX (vs. NYJ)

Parker Washington lit up the Texans in Week 13 to the tune of 103 yards and a score on 12 targets, but he was an afterthought last weekend in Tennessee (two targets on 31 routes).

I’m not comfortable in assuming quality from this Jaguars passing game, and while Washington has shown capable of making plays on occasion, a 12.9% career on-field target share isn’t nearly enough to overcome Mac Jones’ struggles.

Puka Nacua | LAR (at SF)

I look at these numbers for a living, and I have no idea what the most impressive part of Puka Nacua’s Week 14 domination of the Bills was.

• Fourth straight game with an on-field target share over 36%
• Career-high 6.0 yards per route
• 10 targets on 16 routes from the start of Q2 to the end of Q3

That’s just the tip of the iceberg, and I’d argue that Nacua’s five rush attempts (Weeks 1-13: four carries) are what has my interest most piqued. For me, the Rams made it clear on Sunday that they view Nacua as their alpha receiver. If their usage patterns continue to reflect that, Nacua could be a league winner, and Cooper Kupp managers are at risk of an early exit.

Nacua hasn’t struggled to earn targets in his two career games against the Niners (26 looks on 69 routes), and I have no issue in penciling in another double-digit opportunity day at the office.

Quentin Johnston | LAC (vs. TB)

Quentin Johnston has scored seven times in his past 10 games. That’s great, but it’s dangerous to bank on.

Johnston is averaging 26.4 receiving yards over his past five games and has hauled in just 7 of 22 targets (31.8%) over his past 14 quarters. The inefficiencies are partly on him, partly on Justin Herbert, and partly on a 13.6-yard aDOT. Who gets the biggest piece of blame pie can be debated, but with none of them likely to change in the short term, it doesn’t matter for our purposes.

Ladd McConkey sat last week, and Johnston’s role didn’t expand in a significant way. He wasn’t trusted with the slot role at all, and his route diet was within the acceptable range of outcomes for a normal week.

The Buccaneers are a top-10 defense when it comes to slowing deep passes in both completion percentage and yards per attempt. There’s a time and place to roll the dice on Johnston, but this is neither.

Rashod Bateman | BAL (at NYG)

Rashod Bateman has three top-20 finishes this season. While the range of outcomes is great, you could squint and get there for a player like this coming off a bye and facing a defense that allows the second-most yards per deep pass this season (16.3).

There is, of course, a ton of risk going in this direction. Bateman has caught more than three passes just once since mid-October, and while John Harbaugh is downplaying the knee injury he suffered before the bye week, it cost him time in Week 13 against the Eagles and has to at least be considered.

This season, Bateman is scoring once every 11 targets, a rate that far exceeds what he had put on film before in his career (once every 38 targets). You’re aware of the type of profile that Bateman holds — this matchup isn’t prohibitive, so assuming reasonable health, there’s a path to Flex value with Baltimore as a heavy favorite.

Rome Odunze | CHI (at MIN)

What Rome Odunze did last week was inconsiderate.

The rookie scoring on two of his five targets was great, and if you were forced into playing him (the toe-tap TD being a work of art), congratulations. But this thoughtless act of production now has fantasy managers obligated to consider him as a viable option this week and moving forward.

The nerve.

One week of production is wonderful, but it’s far from predictive, especially in an offense led by an up-and-down rookie who has two proven NFL commodities to funnel targets to.

From Weeks 10-13, there were 62 receivers who saw at least 15 targets — Odunze ranked 60th in production relative to expectations (-41.9%). I’m not here to suggest that he regresses to that level, but with major efficiency and volume risk, there are too many moving pieces to justify playing Odunze this week.

Included in that brutal run of production was a 10-target, 39-yard showing against these Vikings. If we are going down the rankings, Rashod Bateman, Noah Brown, and Michael Wilson all grade out slightly better for me this week.

Romeo Doubs | GB (at SEA)

Romeo Doubs has missed consecutive games and entered this work week still in concussion protocol. We know that not all head injuries are created equal, and this extended absence has me trending away from him until we get on-field evidence that he is at full strength.

Doubs has been far from reliable this season when healthy (two games with over 15 PPR points, also four games with under eight points) and can thus be ignored for the short term. If you want to roster Doubs as a cheap way to get exposure to Green Bay’s offense, fine, but you’re not starting him in any capacity this week — even should he clear all health hurdles.

Tank Dell | HOU (vs. MIA)

Tank Dell has just two top-30 performances this season (Weeks 6 and 9), coming up well short of expectations after a strong rookie season. I mentioned the productive duos within the Nico Collins write-up, and if you think Miami will devote all of its resources toward him, Dell could snap out of his funk against a defense that is the last remaining unit in the league without a deep interception.

If you’re backing Dell, you’re doing it based on opinion more than anything we’ve seen on the field lately.

• Week 9 at New York Jets: six catches on nine targets
• Week 10 vs. Detroit Lions: five catches on nine targets
• Week 11 at Dallas Cowboys: four catches on seven targets
• Week 12 vs. Tennessee Titans: three catches on five targets
• Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars: one catch on four targets

Dell hasn’t earned a red-zone target in three straight games, and that has subtracted from the upside in his overall profile. Jameson Williams (vs. Bills) and Darnell Mooney (at Raiders) are receivers that fill a similar role in their respective offenses but have shown more recent life and, thus, rank higher for me this week.

Tee Higgins | CIN (at TEN)

Was Tee Higgins out there on Monday Night Football?

I’m aware that he had two catches (23 yards) and Joe Burrow missed him on an end-zone target in single coverage that is a touchdown more often than not, but Higgins’ impact was minimal in what looked like a good spot against the Cowboys.

Sadly, we get these stinkers from Higgins on occasion. Week 14 was the fifth time since the beginning of last season in which the star receiver averaged under one yard per route run, a level of production that has kept him from ascending into the top 15 at the position on a regular basis.

I expect enough of a bounce-back to justify a starting rank, but I don’t think we’re getting two weeks’ worth of production in a four-quarter stretch. The Titans are vulnerable on the ground, and when opponents take to the air, it’s usually not too far downfield.

Normally, that would green-light me to start players next to a player like Ja’Marr Chase, who is capable of taking the top off of any defense. However, Higgins’ aDOT is actually 21.1% higher than that of his alpha teammate this season.

The Giants have a similar defensive profile as the Titans’, and Higgins turned seven targets into 77 yards against New York back in Week 6. I think that makes for a reasonable projection and is viable, even if not matchup-deciding.

Terry McLaurin | WAS (at NO)

In theory, any member of an offense led by a rookie quarterback comes with a level of risk, but not all theories are bulletproof.

Terry McLaurin has been a WR2 or better in seven of his past eight games, a run of production that includes consecutive top-eight finishes at the position before having last week off. He’s already scored as many touchdowns this season as the previous two combined while improving both his yards per catch and reception rate.

At this point, the foundation McLaurin has set is so strong that he is nearing bust-proof status. OK, so that label isn’t really a thing, but his excellence across the board creates a steady floor with access to extreme upside. The Saints are the second-best pass defense when it comes to opponent red-zone completion percentage, so maybe a third straight game with a score doesn’t occur. But McLaurin has cleared 15 PPR points without the courtesy of a touchdown twice over his past six games.

Washington’s WR1 is a fantasy WR1 for me this week, the remainder of this season, and for the foreseeable future.

Tyler Lockett | SEA (vs. GB)

Tyler Lockett was shut out against the Cardinals last week, earning just one target on his 27 routes in the disappointing effort.

Is “disappointing” the right word? The name “Tyler Lockett” carries with it some gravity, but it’s been a month since he cleared 20 receiving yards, two months since he hit 100 air yards, and over a year since his last game with 18 PPR points.

I was wrong on the Seahawks flaming out, but I wasn’t wrong in deeming Lockett’s days as a fantasy asset as over. This is a two-receiver team that concentrates its targets at a high level — Lockett is essentially what Mike Gesicki is for the Bengals but in an offense with less upside and less favorable positional eligibility.

Tyreek Hill | MIA (at HOU)

Tyreek Hill has touched the ball in the red zone in five straight games, has cleared fantasy expectations by at least 10% in four of those contests, and has seen 23 targets in his past two games.

The Cheetah has scored in four of five games and seems to be operating at full strength, something the Dolphins need in the worst way as they cling to their postseason hopes. The Texans are coming off of their bye, but I’m not sure that if you gave this defense a month of time to prepare for a positive-trending Miami offense it would matter.

Slot usage with Tua Tagovailoa (2024)

• Tyreek Hill: 89 routes, 26 targets, and two TDs
• Jaylen Waddle: 92 routes, 15 targets, and zero TDs

Houston allows the fifth-most yards per slot pass attempt this season (8.6) and the fifth-lowest opponent average depth of target when viewing their pass defense as a whole. In four of five games during this 4-1 run for the Dolphins, Hill has posted a single-digit average depth of target — could this be the week-winning, DFS-slate-shifting Hill performance on the fast track?

I’m not going to give away all of the goods, but I have him and Nico Collins as a chalky DFS stack this week — I’ll round the edges of this lineup with value plays elsewhere.

Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG (vs. BAL)

Wan’Dale Robinson led the Giants with 11 targets on Sunday against a vulnerable Saints pass defense. Given his role and route diet, if you came into my life from the future and presented that sentence as fact ahead of lineup lock, I would have Flexed him in every league possible.

No dice — Robinson finished tied for the 68th-most receiving yards in Week 14.

The Ravens’ pass defense is a glaring weakness, and, on occasion, they are gashed in the slot. Five times this season has Baltimore allowed a triple-digit passer rating on passes thrown to that area with three instances sticking out.

Slot machines vs. BAL:

• Cowboys (Week 3): 8-of-14 for 121 yards and two touchdowns
• Bengals (Week 5): 9-of-10 for 164 yards and three touchdowns
• Browns (Week 8): 11-of-15 for 120 yards and a touchdown

By no means am I suggesting that this Giants offense can produce anything to that level of production, but would 6-8 catches in a blowout loss surprise you in the least for Robinson?

I have him as a very low-end PPR Flex under that general assumption, though I’ll admit that my exposure is far more likely to come as a punt play in a DFS setting more than an annual league.

Xavier Legette | CAR (vs. DAL)

The Panthers nearly pulled off the improbable upset in Philadelphia last week, and if Xavier Legette hauls in a deep pass late, they probably do.

If all near misses counted, we’d have a very different-looking season, both for fantasy and real life. In that alternate reality, maybe the Chiefs are 7-6.

But that’s not the world in which we live, and the fact of the matter is that Legette failed to make the most of his targets last week, something that has been the norm during his rookie season.

Performing for a spotty offense requires extreme efficiency to overcome a lack of scoring equity, and we’re not there right now. Legette has produced 35% under PPR expectations over his past three games, a run that coincides with an 80% catch rate for Adam Thielen.

Legette might well be the future of the position in Carolina and an asset for years to come if Bryce Young develops into a league-average signal-caller. Yet, when evaluating his value for the remainder of this season, there’s not enough here to roster, let alone start.

Xavier Worthy | KC (at CLE)

Xavier Worthy was on the field for a season-high 83.1% of Kansas City’s offensive snaps last week against the Chargers, continuing his slow role growth that might pay off at the perfect time for loyal and/or desperate fantasy managers.

The rookie has at least four receptions in four straight games, and if the ball is in his hands, risk-taking managers will gladly let the chips fall where they may.

The Browns own the ninth-lowest deep-completion percentage. That’s a buzzkill, but when opponents connect the dots on those long throws, they do significant damage (seventh-most yards per deep completion against).

Worthy has earned just one end-zone target over his past eight games, and that keeps the range of outcomes wide. If I’m in a tight matchup or the first of a two-week matchup, I’m looking elsewhere. But if you’re chasing the upside, this is a fine flier to take.

Zay Flowers | BAL (at NYG)

Zay Flowers hasn’t been a top-30 receiver since Week 9 despite consistent volume (6+ targets in six straight games). Is he not as good as we thought? Is he simply running cold?

Efficiency is at the core of Flowers’ struggles. Last season, he caught 71.3% of his targets but just 63.8% this season.

In a run-centric offense with a lower aDOT role, that dip is impacting Flowers’ fantasy stock more than it would most (15% or more under expectations in three of his past four games). It’s been a frustrating year to roster Baltimore’s WR1, but I’m willing to give him this week to iron things out.

Not only should Flowers get a design bump coming out of the bye, but he also faces a Giants defense that does very little to discourage opponents from throwing to the slot. This season, New York owns the eighth-highest opponent slot passer rating and is one of three defenses yet to intercept a pass thrown to that area of the field.

I’m not writing off Flowers for average numbers against the Steelers, Chargers, and Eagles. I’m not sure the struggling receiver will be a popular pick in the DFS streets, and if there is significant leverage to be had on that front, you best believe I’ll be taking advantage.