The fact the Indianapolis Colts are still very much in the middle of the AFC playoff picture seems somewhat of a surprise. We are talking about a team that benched its second-year quarterback, only to reverse course a couple of weeks later, and yet here they are, two games outside of a playoff spot.
With just four games left, the Colts know they realistically need to win out to have a shot at making the playoffs, but they also need some help from teams around them. At least one team needs to lose two more games than the Colts in the next four weeks for them to have a chance, so with that in mind, who should Colts fans be rooting for in Week 15?
Colts’ Playoff Chances Heading Into Week 15
Entering the Sunday slate in Week 15, the Indianapolis Colts have a 36.0% chance of making the NFL playoffs, according to the Pro Football Network NFL Playoff Predictor. Within that 36.1%, the Colts have a 24.1% chance of winning the AFC South.
According to our playoff seeding simulations, the Colts have about a 12% chance of making the playoffs as a Wild Card team. However, those odds could change drastically with a win over the Broncos in Denver.
The Colts have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule, which is far easier than two of their main opponents for a playoff spot, the Houston Texans (ninth-hardest) and the Denver Broncos (12th-hardest).
Colts Rooting Guide for Week 15
As we have just seen, there are two routes by which the Colts could still make the playoffs. They currently trail the Texans by two games in the division and the Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Baltimore Ravens by two games in the Wild Card picture.
This all means there are a few different games that Colts fans should be watching this weekend. Naturally, it all starts with the Colts beating the Broncos, which will reduce the gap to one game and give the Colts a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Broncos.
The other matchups for Colts fans to keep an eye on are:
- Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
- Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
- Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans | Sunday 1 p.m. ET
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers | Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The first game on the above list could cause some conflict for Colts fans as the Dolphins are level with them at 6-7 in the race for a Wild Card spot. However, with the Texans having games against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Ravens in the next two weeks, there is a real chance that the division could be up for grabs.
Therefore, it would be more beneficial overall for the Colts if the Texans were to lose to the Dolphins on Sunday. The Colts could then be just one game behind with three to play. However, they need to finish at least half a game clear of the Texans, as Houston won both head-to-head matchups this season.
In the games between the Ravens and Giants and the Bengals and Texans, Colts fans should root for the Giants and Titans. As unlikely as that seems, the Ravens could still be a target to beat for a Wild Card spot if they fall apart down the stretch. Equally, the Bengals are only one game behind the Colts, so if they win out, they could complicate things for the Broncos in the event of tiebreakers.
In the other late-afternoon game, Colts fans should be looking for the Buccaneers to emerge victorious. That would allow them to close to within one game of the Chargers and the Broncos, presenting multiple teams that could allow the Colts to steal a playoff spot in the final four weeks of the season.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos Preview
From Pro Football Network’s Dakota Randall:
Just How Good Has Bo Nix Been?
By nearly any measure, Bo Nix has exceeded expectations for his rookie season.
The 12th-overall pick ranks 15th in passing yards (2,842), 11th in TDs (17), and 20th in QBR (56.2). Nix also has thrown just eight interceptions and taken just 19 sacks — both respectable numbers. Most importantly, Nix led the Broncos to an 8-5 record in the first 14 weeks and has Denver competing for a playoff spot.
But how does Nix stack up against other first-round rookie QBs over the last decade-plus? Let’s look at where he ranks among Round 1 quarterbacks in their first 13 starts since 2010.
- Passing yards: 21st (2,842)
- Completion percentage: 11th (63.8%)
- Turnovers: 40th (eight)
- TD/INT ratio: eighth (2.1)
- Passing TDs: 14th (17)
- Passer rating: 15th (87.9)
- Quick-pass rate: 35th (54.6%)
- Yards per attempt: 29th (6.5)
- Yards per play: 27th (6.0)
- Rushing yards: 13th (304)
- Scramble yards: 14th (242)
- Sacks: 42nd (19)
Generally speaking, Nix ranks ahead of Caleb Williams, the 2024 first-overall pick, in most categories while ranking behind Jayden Daniels (No. 2 pick) and Drake Maye (No. 3).
All things considered, the Broncos have to be thrilled with what they’ve received from Nix this season. However, the Oregon product still has a lot to prove down the stretch.
Denver’s Defense Leading the Way
The Broncos arguably have the best defense in the NFL.
Denver ranks eighth in takeaways (18) and yards allowed per game (315.7), first in sacks (47), and second in points allowed per game (18.0). The Broncos have held opponents to 18 or fewer points in eight of 13 games.
Moreover, Denver currently owns the highest Pro Football Network Defense+ grade for the season with an A-. That’s the eighth-highest mark for any defense since 2019.
The Broncos only have one single-game PFN Defense+ grade lower than a C (a D against the Ravens in Week 9) and six games with a B- or higher.
Can Anthony Richardson Break Through Against the Broncos Defense?
It’s been a tough season for Richardson, who ranks 37th in PFN’s QB+ Metric. The second-year pro was benched for two games and currently owns the worst completion percentage in the league at 47.4%.
However, after reclaiming the starting job, Richardson has been slightly better in his last three games.
- Week 11 (28-27 win over Jets): 20-for-30, 270 yards, one TD, zero INT, two sacks, and two rushing TDs.
- Week 12 (24-6 loss to Lions): 11-of-28, zero TDs, zero INTs, zero sacks, and zero rushing TDs.
- Week 13 (25-24 win vs. Patriots): 12-of-24, 109 yards, two TDs, two INTs, zero sacks, and one rushing TD.
Efficiency remains a big issue for Richardson, who’s relied on chunk plays to salvage otherwise poor statistical performances. But Richardson has played well in key situations, most notably when orchestrating a 19-play, 66-yard, game-winning drive against the New England Patriots in Week 13.
Still, Richardson remains one of the most poorly-graded quarterbacks in 2024.
- Completion percentage: 34th (47.4%)
- Passer rating: 34th (64.3)
- TD/INT ratio: 34th (0.8)
- Passing yards per game: 34th (167.9)
- EPA per dropback: 30th
- Explosive plays: third (13)
- Scramble yards: 17th (159)
At 6-7, the Colts still have an outside shot at earning a postseason berth. The Broncos currently hold the AFC’s final spot, so a Colts win would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver and move Indy to within one game of the seventh seed.
If Richardson plays well down the stretch while keeping the Colts in the playoff picture, he will strengthen his case for returning as the franchise’s top quarterback in 2025.
