The New Orleans Saints are 5-8 but not only have a path to the playoffs but are guaranteed to go into Week 16 with a postseason pulse.
However, their already long odds will get far longer without a win against the Washington Commanders (8-5) in Week 15.
Read below to see the playoff scenarios for the Saints entering Week 15. Additionally, head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
Saints’ Playoff Chances Heading Into Week 15
Four teams can formally be eliminated from playoff consideration this week, yet the Saints are not one of them due to extreme mediocrity in the NFC South.
In fact, not even the Carolina Panthers at 3-10 can yet be counted completely out.
That’s because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the division with just a 7-6 record. The Atlanta Falcons are a game back at 6-7, and the Saints at 5-8 are two back — but with a game left against Tampa Bay on their schedule.
It should be said that the Saints’ odds are not good. They’re just at a 3.3% chance to make the playoffs and 2.7% to win their division with four games to play.
And the Saints’ real chances are probably even worse, considering Jake Haener is expected to start at quarterback in place of an injured Derek Carr.
Saints’ Rooting Guide for Week 15
The Saints are in must-win mode, and that includes on Sunday against the Commanders. The Saints have a 39.6% chance to beat the Commanders this week, per the Playoff Predictor; a loss would destroy the slim chances they have.
Beyond that, there are two games that would make next week interesting in the NFC South:
- The Los Angeles Chargers beat the Buccaneers (47.9% chance of happening)
- And the Las Vegas Raiders beating the Falcons (39.6%)
But that’s just the beginning of the help the Saints need.
In addition to winning out (which would include victories against three teams currently among the top seven seeds in the NFC), the Saints would need at least one more loss each by both the Buccaneers and Falcons in the final three weeks. The Falcons have the NFL’s easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to PFN’s metrics; the Buccaneers have the fifth-easiest (.404).
Washington Commanders vs. New Orleans Saints Preview
Courtesy of Pro Football Network’s Jason Katz
Stopping Brian Robinson Jr.
Expect the Commanders to lean on Brian Robinson Jr. coming out of their bye week. The Commanders are a perfect 3-0 in games in which Robinson has run for over 100 yards. The Saints have allowed a 100-yard rusher in five games this season. They are 1-4 in those games. The Saints rank 30th with a 54.9% defensive rush success rate on the season.
On the season, the Commanders have a 49% neutral game script run rate, the fifth-highest in the league. That percentage is even higher when leading. The Commanders have run 307 plays with at least a seven-point lead. They’ve run the ball 56% of the time in those situations.
2024 Jayden Daniels vs. 2011 Cam Newton
Back in 2011, Cam Newton won Offensive Rookie of the Year, setting the NFL world ablaze with a play style that we hadn’t really seen before. Newton threw for 21 touchdowns while rushing for 14 more. At the time, Newton’s 14 rushing scores were an NFL record for a quarterback, shattering the previous high of 12 set by Patriots QB Steve Grogan in 1976.
With 15 passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns through 13 games, Daniels is unlikely to catch Newton in passing TDs and certainly not going to get there on the ground. However, there are several areas where Daniels blows Newton’s performance out of the water.
Daniels is completing 69.6% of his passes, putting him on pace to break Dak Prescott’s rookie completion percentage record of 67.8% set in 2016 (minimum 10 starts to qualify). Newton only completed 60% of his passes as a rookie.
Daniels also has the benefit of quarterbacking a good team. The Commanders are 8-5; PFN projections give them a 58.5% chance of making the playoffs. Newton’s 2011 Panthers were 6-10 and never serious playoff contenders.
Where Daniels really sets himself apart is in protecting the football. He’s thrown six interceptions and hasn’t lost a fumble all year. Newton turned the ball over 19 times (17 picks, two fumbles).
Saints Struggle Without Derek Carr
Carr has missed three games this season. Now with a fractured left hand, he is likely done for the year. At the bare minimum, he won’t be playing this week against the Commanders.
Here are the Saints’ yards-per-play averages this season:
- Overall: 5.5 (15th)
- With Carr: 5.8 (tied for ninth)
- Without Carr: 4.6 (31st)
The Saints averaged 15 points per game in the three contests Carr missed earlier in the year. They average 24.5 points per game with Carr as the starter.
Replacing Taysom Hill
What changed for the Saints in their first game with Taysom Hill done for the year?
From Weeks 8-13, Hill averaged 10.6 opportunities per game. That represented his heaviest stretch of usage this season. On the season, the Saints have run 12 or 13 personnel 39.9% of the time. That rate drops to 22.4% in games where Hill is inactive.
Juwan Johnson consistently does more when Hill is out. Johnson averaged 14.6 routes run across all the games in which Hill was active (excluding Week 13, the game in which Hill got hurt). Johnson averages 25 routes run per game (including Week 13) when Hill is out.