The 6-7 Miami Dolphins visit the 8-5 Houston Texans in Week 15, a game that has major playoff implications throughout the AFC.
Read on for key stats (courtesy of TruMedia), insights, and betting information in PFN’s Dolphins vs. Texans preview.
Miami Dolphins-Houston Texans Game Preview
The Dolphins are in that weird place where they’re very likely to miss the playoffs (their odds of getting in were just 30.7% entering Sunday’s action, per PFN’s Playoff Predictor) but not so far out of it that they can shut their hurt guys down.
So each week, it’s anyone’s guess who will be available. Terron Armstead? Raheem Mostert? Kendall Lamm? The safest bet is always to check back pregame.
The Texans, meanwhile, are very likely to go to the playoffs as division champions. They’re 83.2% likely to reach the postseason (75% as AFC South champs) and 67.6% likely to qualify as the No. 4 seed. They can clinch the AFC South with a win and a Colts loss.
The No. 1 reason why? Their defense. The Texans have a fearsome 1-2 pass-rush punch of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.
We’re intrigued about the matchup between the NFL’s No. 6 defense (per PFN metrics) and Tua Tagovailoa, who has played as well as any quarterback since his return from IR in Week 8. Over the last seven weeks, he’s second in passer rating (114.1) and completion percentage (76%) with 15 touchdowns and one interception.
Last Time Out
The Dolphins escaped near-certain defeat — and effective playoff elimination — to beat the New York Jets 32-26 in overtime. Tagovailoa completed 33 of 47 passes for 331 yards and two touchdowns, including the 10-yard game-winner to Jonnu Smith on the first possession of OT.
The Texans were on their bye in Week 14. The week before, they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-20 in a game that was closer than it should have been. Houston led by 17 points midway through the fourth quarter before allowing a couple of garbage-time scores by Jacksonville.
Series History
While the Texans and Dolphins are playing for just the 12th time ever, this is their third meeting in four years.
Houston holds the all-time series edge 8-3, but all three of those losses to Miami have come in the teams’ last four meetings, including a 30-15 Dolphins victory at Hard Rock Stadium in 2022.
Betting Lines
As of Friday morning, the Texans were three-point and -148 favorites over the Dolphins.
The Dolphins’ moneyline was +124. The over/under was 46.5.
The betting public sees this as a close game. Seventy percent of the bets and money were on the Texans -148, but 70% of the bets and money were on Dolphins +3.
7 Dolphins-Texans Stats From TruMedia
- The Dolphins’ offense doesn’t travel. They have played three home games (100 points scored) and three road games (67 points scored) over their past six.
- Houston laid an egg coming out of its bye last season (15-13 loss in Carolina) before rattling off three straight wins in which DeMeco Ryan’s team totaled 90 points.
- The Dolphins picked up eight of 12 third downs against the Raiders in their Week 11 win. They are just nine of 35 since (25.7%).
- Since Week 9, C.J. Stroud is just 20 of 44 (45.5%) when throwing the ball in the fourth quarter (Weeks 1-8: 72.4%).
- Over their past five games, the Dolphins have allowed as many goal-to-go field goals as touchdowns in such spots (four).
- The Texans are 9 of 13 (69.2%) on fourth downs this season, much improved from their 8 of 21 (38.1%) mark a season ago.
Dolphins vs. Texans Predictions
- Mike Wobschall (70.5% correct on the season): Texans
- Kyle Soppe (66.7%): Texans
- Adam Beasley (64.7%): Texans
- David Bearman (61.8%): Texans
- Dan Tomaro (58.4%): Texans
The Texans win in 54.9% of Pro Football Network’s Playoff Predictor simulations.
For all Week 15 PFN Expert Picks, click here.