The Miami Dolphins appeared cooked after a 2-6 start. But Tua Tagovailoa’s return from a concussion has allowed the Dolphins to take advantage of the soft portion of their schedule, keeping playoff hopes alive. How much changed on Sunday with the loss to the Houston Texans?
Miami Dolphins Playoffs Situation | Week 15 Update
AFC Scores in Week 15 Relevant to Playoff Race
- Chiefs defeated Browns, 21-7
- Bengals defeated Titans, 37-27
- Texans defeated Dolphins, 20-12
- Ravens defeated Giants, 35-14
- Buccaneers defeated Chargers, 40-17
- Eagles defeated Steelers, 27-13
- Broncos defeated Colts, 31-13
- Bills defeated Lions, 48-42
With the loss to the Texans, the Dolphins’ playoff odds dropped from 30.7% to 20.9%. Miami did not get help from Baltimore or Cincinnati, who both won in the early slate on Sunday. The Dolphins finish with a home game against San Francisco and then road games at Cleveland and the Jets.
Miami sits behind the Ravens (9-5), the Broncos (9-5), and the Chargers (8-6). The Dolphins didn’t play any of those teams, so conference record will be the first tiebreaker involved in any multi-team tie.
The one damaging loss the Dolphins did incur was against the Indianapolis Colts, who are also 6-8, which is why Miami is technically behind Indy in the AFC standings. However, all five teams in the AFC Wild Card race have four conference losses entering Week 15, so the conference record tiebreaker is still very much in the air.
At this point, the Dolphins need a lot of help — and any path you look at doesn’t seem realistic. They would need to hope the Broncos lose their remaining games, while Miami would need to win their remaining games.
That doesn’t consider the Colts and Chargers, who would also need to lose at least two games to prevent tiebreakers from coming into effect. And then the Bengals are right there with Miami with a 6-8 record.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
PFN’s Dolphins-Texans Preview Before Kickoff
Preview courtesy of PFN’s Adam Beasley
A Tropical Brees?
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa already owns the Miami Dolphins’ single-season completion percentage record (69.3%, set last year). But with a strong finish to the 2024 season, Tagovailoa could not only obliterate that number but also put a real scare in Drew Brees’ NFL record (74.4%).
Tagovailoa through Week 14 has completed a league-best 73.8% of his passes and, even if he doesn’t play another down, already has enough attempts on the season (325) to qualify for the record books.
Tagovailoa has 240 completions on 325 attempts on 582 offensive snaps this season, with passes thrown on 55.8% of his snaps. The Dolphins have averaged 67.2 offensive snaps per game this year — extrapolated out, that would be about 269 offensive snaps left in the regular season.
Tagovailoa’s projected use over the final four games: 150 passes, giving him 475 attempts on the season.
Drew Brees completed 74.438% of his attempts in 2018. For Tagovailoa to surpass that, he would need to finish the year 354 of 475, which amount to going 114 of 150 (76%) the rest of the way.
Challenging? Absolutely, but not impossible. Since returning from IR in Week 8, Tagovailoa has completed exactly 76% of his attempts.
For Tagovailoa not to break his own team record, he would need an epic collapse. He needs to go just 89 of 150 — a rate of 59.3% — the rest of the way to surpass last year’s number.
Pass Pro Problems?
The Houston Texans have statistically the best pass-rush tandem in the NFL in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Hunter entered Week 14 ranked fourth in sacks (10.5); Anderson entered Week 14 ranked seventh in sacks (9.5) They have 97 combined pressures in 13 games.
Anderson generates pressure on 15.6% of his pass-rush snaps; Hunter’s pass-rush rate is 13.7%. And they’re potentially about to face off against a pair of backup offensive tackles: Kendall Lamm (who replaced Austin Jackson, IR) and Patrick Paul (who would replace Terron Armstead, knee).
Lamm shouldn’t be the concern. Lamm in 2024 has surrendered 12 pressures but no sacks on 246 pass-block snaps. He’s been basically a third starter at tackle the last two seasons, logging 997 of a possible 1,960 snaps. Before his injury, Jackson allowed 15 pressures and three sacks on 294 pass-block snaps.
The real concern is on the left side. Armstead has allowed one sack and 11 pressures in 376 pass-block snaps (2.9% pressure rate) — Paul has allowed two sacks and seven pressures on 96 pass-block snaps (7.3%).
Mike McDaniel vs. DeMeco Ryans
Sunday marks the ninth time Mike McDaniel in his three years with the Dolphins faces off against a former coaching colleague in DeMeco Ryans.
The previous eight should give the Texans and their fans reason for optimism.
The Dolphins have played 47 regular-season games in McDaniel’s three seasons with Miami.
Their averages in those games: 24.6 points per game, 6 yards per play, 39.1% conversion rate third downs, 61.7% conversion rate in the red zone, and a .553 winning percentage. In their eight games against those McDaniel peers: 22, 5.5, 38.5%, 47.8%, and 4-4.
