The Pittsburgh Steelers once again defied preseason expectations and are sitting at the top of the AFC North, even after they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15. With a two-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens entering Week 15 now dwindled down to a one-game lead, can Pittsburgh hold them off in the final weeks of the season?
Using the PFN Playoff Predictor, we look at the Steelers’ chances of claiming the AFC North Division title.
Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Scenarios | Week 15 Update
AFC Scores in Week 15 Relevant to Playoff Race
- Chiefs defeated Browns, 21-7
- Bengals defeated Titans, 37-27
- Texans defeated Dolphins, 20-12
- Ravens defeated Giants, 35-14
- Buccaneers defeated Chargers, 40-17
- Eagles defeated Steelers, 27-13
- Broncos defeated Colts, 31-13
- Bills defeated Lions, 48-42
With losses by the Dolphins and Colts on Sunday, the Steelers have clinched a playoff berth. But their loss to the Eagles will drop them one game behind Buffalo for the AFC’s no. 2 seed.
The PFN NFL Playoff Predictor gives the Steelers just a 1.2% chance to earn the AFC’s top spot, down nearly three percentage points from before Week 15. But their biggest drop is really their probability to win the AFC North.
The Predictor gives the Steelers a 53% chance to win the division, which is down 13 percentage points from where it was entering Week 15. Meanwhile, it gives the Ravens a 46.3% chance to win the AFC North.
Pittsburgh won the first matchup between the teams in Week 11, and the rematch in Baltimore is coming in Week 16. Should the Steelers win that game, it would clinch the division for Pittsburgh regardless of what happens in every other game. That’s because the tiebreaker would go to Pittsburgh at that point by virtue of its season sweep.
Regarding the AFC’s top seed, that is looking less likely with four losses. The Chiefs, sitting at 13-1, have games remaining against the Texans, Steelers, and Broncos. Certainly, it’s not a particularly easy stretch.
Buffalo, however, will face the Patriots, Jets, and Patriots to end the season. With their record at 11-3, the chances of the Steelers leapfrogging them seem a little less probable.
All that said, Pittsburgh does have a head-to-head opportunity remaining against the 13-1 Chiefs. The Steelers will host Kansas City on Christmas Day, which is a Wednesday game. That will be coming off a short week, as Pittsburgh visits Baltimore the preceding Saturday.
The stretch of three games in 11 days is very difficult to sweep, but it’s necessary for the Steelers to have any hopes of being the top seed or even the number two seed. Even with an upset win over the Chiefs, Pittsburgh would need Kansas City to drop its remaining games.
Crazier things have happened.
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, where you can choose who will win the remaining NFL games to see how each game can impact the NFL playoff picture.
