The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the best teams in the league all season, but that hasn’t meant much in the NFC North. Playing in the NFL’s best division, the 12-2 Vikings aren’t even in first place in their own division.
Using the PFN Playoff Predictor, we examine the clinching scenarios for Kevin O’Connell’s squad after they defeated the Chicago Bears in Week 15.
Vikings Playoff Scenarios | Week 15 Update
NFC Scores in Week 15 Relevant to Playoff Race
- Rams defeated 49ers, 12-6
- Commanders defeated Saints, 20-19
- Cowboys defeated Panthers, 30-14
- Buccaneers defeated Chargers, 40-17
- Cardinals defeated Patriots, 30-17
- Bills defeated Lions, 48-42
- Eagles defeated Steelers, 27-13
- Packers defeated Seahawks, 30-13
- Vikings defeated Bears, 30-12
- Falcons defeated Raiders, 15-9
With the Vikings getting the win in Week 15, they have clinched a playoff spot. That said, they are still behind the Detroit Lions in the NFC North, but at 12-2, they are in the thick of the NFC 1 seed race. At the very minimum, they’ll be a Wild Card team, but seeding is still up in the air.
It’s crazy to think that the Vikings could be the number one seed, but there’s also a world where they are the seventh seed if they lose their remaining three games against the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and Lions.
But if they win their next two and the Lions win their next two? Week 18 will be a winner-take-all scenario where the victor will be the number one seed and the NFC North Division winner — even if the Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) win out.
It’s important to note, though, that Minnesota has the hardest remaining schedule in the league, as Chicago was the only sub-.500 team left on its schedule. But they certainly control their own destiny.
The Vikings have a chance to catch the Lions, win the NFC North, and earn the No. 1 seed. However, they could also fall to third place in the division, given their tough remaining slate and the fact that they only have a two-game lead over the 9-4 Packers (who they play in Week 17).
Head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture and the current NFL postseason bracket.
Vikings’ Week 15 Preview Published Before Kickoff
Justin Jefferson’s Historical Pace
It’s not a stretch to say that Justin Jefferson is on pace to be the most productive receiver in NFL history – if he can stay healthy.
With his 132-yard effort in last week’s win over the Atlanta Falcons, Jefferson became the first receiver in NFL history to reach 7,000 yards in his first five seasons. Through his first 73 games, Jefferson has an astonishing 467 catches for 7,069 yards and 37 TDs.
Here’s the top-five list for receiving yards in a player’s first five seasons:
1. Justin Jefferson, 7,069 (73 games)
2. Torry Holt, 6,784 (80 games)
3. Randy Moss, 6,743 (80 games)
4. Jerry Rice, 6,364 (76 games)
5. Julio Jones, 6,201 (65 games)
Jefferson also has an outside shot at posting the most receptions of any receiver in his first five seasons. That list is currently as follows:
1. Michael Thomas, 510
2. Jarvis Landry, 481
3. CeeDee Lamb, 480
4. Justin Jefferson, 467
5. Cooper Kupp, 433
Jefferson would need to catch 44 balls over the next four games and outpace Lamb by 14 receptions in order to achieve the feat. That’s a tall order.
As for touchdowns, Jefferson’s 37 are the 21st-most since 2000 for a receiver in his first five campaigns. Dez Bryant tops that list with 56 receptions, while Moss tops the all-time list with 60 TDs in his first five seasons.
Sam Darnold deserves a lot of credit for helping Jefferson maintain his incredible pace. The veteran QB is having his best season as a pro, ranking ninth in EPA per dropback, fourth in passing yards per game, third in completion percentage, fourth in touchdowns, and fifth in passer rating.
Showing Respect to Minnesota’s Defense
Much of the national focus has been paid to the Vikings’ offense, and for good reason. Minnesota is loaded with star power and head coach Kevin O’Connell is one of the best offensive minds in the game. But the Vikings aren’t 11-2 just because of that side of the ball.
Minnesota also has one of the NFL’s best defenses. Let’s look at where the Vikings rank in various defensive categories.
- Defensive EPA per play: 3rd
- Total defensive EPA: 2nd
- Pressure rate: 16th (34.5)
- Takeaways: 2nd (27)
- Opponent points per game: 6th (18.5)
- Opponent yards per game: 17th (337.8)
- Opponent yards per play: 9th (5.3)
- Opponent red-zone efficiency: 15th (54.1)
No matter how you slice it, the Vikings are one of the best all-around teams in football. And their defense, which has held opponents under 18 points in seven of 13 games, deserves more credit.
