After surviving the Week 14 byes (not fun), we’re back to full-slate NFL football (thank heavens). Week 15 features one of the best afternoon lineups we’ve seen this season with two huge games (Detroit at Buffalo and Pittsburgh at Philadelphia); however, we’ve got our eyes on several matchups that should be high-scoring and lacking in defense in the 1 p.m. slate to get our DFS lineup going. Let’s dive in!
Week 15 DFS Picks
- QB: Tua Tagovaiola
- RB: Rico Dowdle
- RB: Chubba Hubbard
- WR: Tyreek Hill
- WR: Davante Adams
- FLEX: Joshua Palmer
- TE: Zach Ertz
- DEF: Jets
DFS Strategy: Doubling Down on the Dolphins
I think we can all say this universally — we’re all happy to see Tua Tagovaiola back and playing again. Since he’s been back, Tua has been absolutely scorching hot, and when Tua is rolling, that usually means Tyreek Hill is right there with him.
Over the last four weeks, Tua is a QB1 and it’s not even close, finishing as a top-five fantasy QB in each week over that span. He’s thrown for a minimum of 288 yards, thrown 11 TDs (and no interceptions!), and best of all, he’s targeting his studs, with 74% of his first-half passing yards going to Hill and Jaylen Waddle versus the New York Jets last week.
Traditionally, cheetahs are warm-weather animals, but we’re seeing Hill buck this trend as he hits his stride in December. Tyreek has been the WR5 over the last four weeks, and he has 16 catches for over 200 yards and two TDs in his last two games.
On top of this, the Houston Texans defense, although in the middle of the pack overall, has allowed the most passing TDs in the entire NFL; this week, they’ll have their hands full with the Miami Dolphins passing attack.
Hubba Hubba — It’s Chubba Season
Call me crazy, but I’m targeting BOTH running backs from the Dallas Cowboys-Carolina Panthers game — and not only because of the opportunity both Chuba Hubbard and Rico Dowdle have respectively but because both RBs have been legitimate fantasy contributors, especially over the last few weeks.
The Cowboys’ run defense has allowed 21 TDs this year (most in the league) while the Carolina rush defense has allowed 19 (second worst in the league).
Do you know the GIF of John Travolta from Goodfellas? When he’s looking around the room and there’s no one there with him? That’s Hubbard in the Carolina RB depth chart. Miles Sanders? Out. Jonathon Brooks? Out. Even Raheem Blackshear, the third-string back, is questionable. This means close to 100% of the work is going to go to Hubbard, facing a brutal Dallas run defense. That’s all I need to know.
Meanwhile, Dowdle has run for 100+ yards in consecutive games, making him the first Cowboy to do so since Tony Pollard (Weeks 8-10, 2022). Between those two instances, a non-Cowboys RB registered consecutive 100-yard rushing games 31 times.
In those two games, Dowdle has roasted opponents to a total of 40 carries, 243 yards, and one touchdown.
Don’t Sleep on Davante Adams
I’m keeping this one simple: the Jacksonville Jaguars. We don’t like to kick anyone or anything while it’s down, but whoever the Jags are playing, it’s wise to target the other team’s offense. After a slow start to the season, Adams has rekindled his chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. In the last five games, Adams has consistently seen elite volume, hauling in 33 of 54 balls — and three of those for TDs.
The Aaron Rodgers to Davante Adams train is back, baby — and tomorrow’s matchup against the Jags is a perfect one to hop on board.
High Floor, Low Price Tag: Zach Ertz Needs a Look in Your Lineup
Here are Ertz’s stats over the last three games with rookie sensation Jayden Daniels at QB:
- Week 11: six receptions, 47 yards, and a TD
- Week 12: six receptions, 38 yards, and a TD
- Week 13: three receptions, 35 yards, and a TD
So you’re telling me that I can grab a TE for my DFS lineup for $4K who has scored in all of his last three games and is averaging five catches a game in that span … AND he’s facing off against a Jake Haener-led New Orleans Saints team? Yup — sign me up