Making lineup decisions can be the most frustrating — or most rewarding — part of fantasy football. We’re to help you make those decisions with our fantasy start ’em/sit ’em picks.
It’s now Week 17. The fantasy football finals (or semifinals if you go the distance!). This is for all the glory. We have to get these decisions correct. We know who each of these teams are. That allows us to make informed decisions regarding matchups. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our top Week 17 start/sit plays.
Which Players Should You Start in Week 17?
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers (at MIN)
This was written before Monday Night Football, but I am making a couple of assumptions. First, the Packers won this game, which means they clinched a playoff spot, locking them into a Wild Card game. With the Lions and Vikings both at 13 wins already, the division is out. That means the Packers have very little to play for over these final two weeks.
With that said, it is unlikely they will rest starters for two consecutive games. Plus, they aren’t locked into their specific seeding just yet. As long as we don’t get word the Packers are taking it easy, Jordan Love is set up to smash in Week 17.
The Packers have been extremely run-heavy all season. Their 52% neutral game script run rate is the second-highest in the league. But Matt LaFleur is not a stupid coach, nor is he stubborn. The Packers will gladly run the ball when the game is close and when they are leading. But when they fall behind by a touchdown or more, he will flip the switch to putting the ball in Love’s hands.
When down by at least seven points, the Packers throw the ball 66% of the time. Back in Week 4, Green Bay fell behind 28-7 at halftime. Love attempted 54 passes, completing 32 of them for 389 yards and four touchdowns.
The Vikings remain one of the league’s premier pass-funnel defenses. They allow the fourth-most passing yards per game but the second-fewest rushing yards per game. It was a great run for Josh Jacobs as the centerpiece of this offense. In Week 17, Love will step up and deliver the fantasy points for managers.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (at CIN)
Do not let last week’s game deter you from attacking this porous Bengals defense. It takes a historically inept quarterback like Dorian Thompson-Robinson to make this defense look competent. Bo Nix is far from the best quarterback in the NFL, but he can take advantage of a porous Bengals D.
The Bengals allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While the Broncos should be able to move the ball however they want, Nix has displayed a very high floor all season.
Since Week 5, Nix has scored at least 14 fantasy points in every game. He’s hit 18+ fantasy points seven times and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in five of his last six. Nix is a clear QB1 this week.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (at NYG)
There’s definitely some risk here that Jonathan Taylor destroys the Giants just like he destroyed the Titans last week, leaving little for Anthony Richardson. But even amidst Taylor’s 218-yard effort on the ground, Richardson still managed to throw for a touchdown and rush for a touchdown.
Now, Richardson gets a Giants defense that has completely rolled over as of late. They only allow the 12th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but it’s very clear this is a team just going through the motions as the season plays out.
Meanwhile, Richardson has been getting it done on the ground. He’s rushed for a touchdown in three straight games and four of his last five, averaging 51.4 yards on the ground over that span. The Colts should score plenty in this one. As long as JT doesn’t take it all, AR should be able to push 20 fantasy points.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets (at BUF)
It’s been an overall disappointing year for Breece Hall. He entered the season neck-and-neck with Bijan Robinson as the overall RB2. Which direction you went likely played a large role in your team’s success this year.
With that said, if you made it to the fantasy championship with Hall, he is poised to deliver one last time.
For all of Hall’s struggles this season, both with his offense, workload, and injury, he was able to torch the Bills on the ground. Believe it or not, Hall has just one game with 100+ rushing yards this season. It came in Week 6 against the Bills. Outside of the part where he didn’t score, that was his best game of the season, totaling 169 yards.
Nothing has changed regarding the Bills’ defense. They are still a run funnel, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to RBs. They also are susceptible to receiving backs, with 20% of their total passing yards allowed having gone to running backs.
Hall was not on the injury report last week for the first time in a while and it appears legitimate. He looked as healthy as ever and saw a 77% snap share, his highest since Week 11. You can trust Hall even as the Jets play out another lost season.
No easing off Breece Hall (knee) for #Jets, despite being dead for playoffs. RB snaps yesterday:
1. Breece Hall 53
2. Braelon Allen 10
2. Isaiah Davis 10— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 23, 2024
Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, New York Giants (vs. IND)
I’ve mostly been fading Tyrone Tracy Jr. for the past few weeks due to a combination of bad matchups and erratic usage. If you started Tracy last week, you got away with it due to an impressive touchdown grab — the Giants’ only score of the game — on an extended play.
Drew Lock is definitely better for Tracy than Tommy DeVito, but this offense is a disaster. Fortunately, Tracy’s playing time does seem to be stabilizing a bit, now having played 63% and 68% of the snaps over his last two games.
While he only saw seven carries last week, the Giants only ran the ball 11 times (excluding Darius Slayton’s lone attempt). They fell behind early and had to air it out.
That’s a risk against any opponent, but they should be more competitive against the Colts. Plus, the Colts are more susceptible to the run game, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
With the Giants at home, this one should remain close enough that Tracy can get to around 15 opportunities. He’s a trustworthy RB2 this week.
As a caveat to this, if Tracy’s ankle injury keeps him out of this game, Devin Singletary would be viable as an RB3/Flex.
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (at NO)
Last week was really disappointing for fantasy managers who justifiably started Jakobi Meyers with confidence. He managed just two receptions for 41 yards against a bad Jaguars pass defense.
Prior to last week’s dud, Meyers had hit double-digit fantasy points in four straight, while earning at least nine targets in each of those contests. It was just a weird game in Week 16.
For better or worse, we have to trust the matchup data and go back to him in Week 17. The Saints allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, and 67% of their total passing yards allowed have gone to the position.
Meyers remains the Raiders’ clear WR1, and I expect him to be more heavily featured early in this one.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers (at TB)
I really don’t know how Adam Thielen is still doing this. The oldest WR in the league looks as motivated as ever and he’s still having fun out there. Most importantly, he’s still being productive.
Thielen has scored 15+ fantasy points in three of his last four games. Now, he gets a Bucs pass-funnel defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
When these teams met in Week 13, Thielen caught eight of 10 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown.
Bryce Young & Adam Thielen extend the Carolina lead!
📺: #AZvsCAR on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/fqBsPnbPKV— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Cooper Rush just threw for 292 yards against this defense. Thielen is someone you can start with confidence in Week 17.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. KC)
Prior to Week 16, Pat Freiermuth was on a pretty good run with three straight games of at least 11 fantasy points. Of course, it helped that he scored in all three. Ultimately, though, that’s what we’re chasing with the non-elite tight ends, and that’s the objective this week.
The Chiefs don’t necessarily have a bad pass defense, but they have an elite run defense, so I would call them a pass funnel. More specifically, they’ve really struggled against tight ends.
A league-high 33% of their total passing yards allowed have gone to the tight end position. They allow the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Russell Wilson is playing well and, for what it’s worth, Muth has at least three receptions in five consecutive games. You can take a shot he finds the end zone in a game the Steelers should end up throwing more than they want to.
Chig Okonkwo, TE, Tennessee Titans (at JAX)
I sincerely hope you can do better than Chig Okonkwo this week. If you can’t, though, there’s upside if you need him.
Once upon a time, Okonkwo was a popular breakout candidate heading into his second season. That breakout never materialized, but the talent that made him one didn’t disappear. Over the past two weeks, it’s been on full display.
Okonkwo has posted back-to-back TE1 performances. He’s seen 10+ targets in two straight games and caught at least eight passes in both.
This week, Okonkwo gets a Jaguars defense allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. 24.5% of their total passing yards allowed have gone to the position.
It’s not ideal, but you can do worse than Okonkwo if you need a streamer for Week 17.
Which Players Should You Sit in Week 17?
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (at PIT)
There are actually a lot of quarterbacks set up well for strong performances in Week 17. This may end up being the lowest I rank Patrick Mahomes all season, if not ever.
Amidst all the great matchups, Mahomes has to travel to Pittsburgh to face a good Steelers defense in cold weather.
Mahomes is coming off one of his best games of the season, scoring 23.7 fantasy points. It marked just the third time all year that he’s scored more than 20 points.
The Steelers “held” Lamar Jackson to 21.5 fantasy points. They allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Mahomes is not a QB1 this week.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. KC)
A few weeks ago, during the tail end of my buy low/sell high columns, I had Najee Harris as a sell due to his rough playoff schedule. That has proven prescient, as Harris has mostly been a disaster during fantasy’s most important weeks.
If not for a short touchdown in Week 14 against the Browns, we would be looking at three consecutive mega duds for the Steelers’ starting running back.
Harris is offering nothing through the air, with a single reception over his last three games. That means he needs to be efficient on the ground and score to provide fantasy value. That’s hard to do in tough matchups against great opponents that force the Steelers into a negative game script.
In Week 13, Harris played 52% of the snaps. That percentage has dropped every subsequent week, bottoming out at 28% last Saturday against the Ravens.
We’ve seen a hefty dose of Jaylen Warren, especially with the Steelers having to pass more. Add in the fact that the Chiefs allow the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, and Harris cannot be in fantasy lineups this week.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys (at PHI)
A really strong four-week run for Rico Dowdle came screeching to a halt in Week 16. In a win over the Bucs, the Cowboys did what they needed to do to move the ball against a pass-funnel defense — they passed.
Mike McCarthy’s coaching performance with Cooper Rush may very well have earned him a second contract. This is not a man who stubbornly tries to “establish the run” against teams that are great at stopping it. The way to beat the Bucs is through the air and that’s exactly what the Cowboys did.
Unfortunately, that led to Dowdle’s three-game 100-yard streak crashing and burning. Dowdle still dominated this backfield, playing 77% of the snaps. However, he only managed 23 yards on 13 carries, while adding three receptions for 28 more.
When these teams last met, Dowdle was better, managing to run for 53 yards on 12 carries. But he didn’t score, resulting in a single-digit fantasy outing.
The Eagles just lost a 36-33 shootout to the Commanders. Brian Robinson Jr. ran it 10 times for 24 yards. This is an awful spot for Dowdle against a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns (vs. MIA)
It is absolutely incredible what a difference a quarterback can make. Jerry Jeudy was completely unstartable in fantasy with Deshaun Watson under center. Overnight, he became an elite WR1 when the team switched to Jameis Winston. Now, with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jeudy is once again waiver wire fodder.
I don’t know if head coach Kevin Stefanski is willing to stomach another DTR start. Bailey Zappe would be better, but anyone other than Winston is unlikely to return Jeudy to a level where he’s trustworthy in fantasy.
Jeudy caught a mere two passes for 20 yards against arguably the worst defense in the league. Now, he gets a Dolphins defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The only Browns that can be trusted in fantasy lineups are Jerome Ford and David Njoku.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals (at LAR)
It’s so incredibly easy to fade Marvin Harrison Jr. every week. If you somehow made the fantasy championship with him in your lineup, it’s time to move him to the bench.
I waffle back and forth on whether to blast Harrison for being unable to earn targets or the Cardinals’ offense for refusing to feature him. Is it a talent issue? Some metrics say no. But if Harrison were talented, wouldn’t he command targets the same way other rookies like Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Malik Nabers do? It’s not as if Kyler Murray is some awful quarterback.
It’s fascinating to watch the Cardinals call pass plays. When Murray drops back to pass, his first read is almost never Harrison. If Harrison and another receiver are essentially running the same route on opposite sides of the field, Murray almost always looks to the non-Harrison guy. At some point, we have to call this a Harrison issue.
The time to take a deep dive into Harrison’s rookie year will be during the Spring. Right now, we need to focus on whether he’s usable in Week 17. He is not, as he has not been for all but three weeks since Week 5.
Harrison still hasn’t scored between 9.0 and 15.0 fantasy points. It’s either a complete dud or a WR1-caliber performance…but mostly the duds.
Harrison has now failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in four of his last five. He’s only hit 50+ receiving yards once over that span. He’s only caught more than five passes in a game once all season and never more than six.
The Rams may be an average matchup for wide receivers, but none of that matters for Harrison. Easily one of the biggest busts of the season — don’t let him derail your championship aspirations.
Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions (at SF)
It’s unclear how motivated the 49ers will be now that the perennial Super Bowl contenders have been eliminated from the playoffs. Assuming they continue trying hard, this is an awful matchup for a resurgent Sam LaPorta.
The Lions’ tight end has been excellent over the past month, hitting double-digit fantasy points in four straight, including 14+ points in three of them.
Detroit remains heavily motivated to win, as they can still end up as high as the No. 1 seed and as low as the No. 5 seed. But will they utilize LaPorta this week? It may be tough.
The 49ers allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends — just 18% of their total passing yards allowed goes to the position.
As great as LaPorta has been, the volume still hasn’t really been there. Outside of garbage time against the Bills where he racked up 111 yards, LaPorta has been reliant on touchdowns. Sure, he could always score one. But if he doesn’t, we’re likely looking at a ceiling of about 8-10 points.
Perhaps you don’t have a better option. That’s perfectly fine. LaPorta won’t go catchless. Just temper expectations from the talented sophomore tight end against a team that defends the position well.
Brenton Strange, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. TEN)
One week after incorrectly recommending the Jaguars TE as a start, Brenton Strange is now someone to avoid.
In his first start following Evan Engram’s season-ending injury, Strange played 82% of the snaps. He earned 12 targets and looked like a one-to-one replacement. Last week, everything changed.
Strange played just 51% of the snaps and was only targeted four times. It appears he may have been punished for losing an early fumble, which is a curious decision to make regarding a young player on a team going nowhere.
More importantly, Mac Jones is keying in on Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington. Those two combined for a 48% target share, leaving scraps for the rest of the team.
The Titans allow the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. Strange is best left on fantasy benches this week.